Earnings Labs

Acadian Asset Management (AAMI)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 4, 2016

$65.55

-2.03%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-0.27%

1 Week

-3.05%

1 Month

+3.77%

vs S&P

+0.22%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the OMAM Earnings Conference Call and Webcast for the Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2015. During the call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that this call is being recorded today, February 4 at 10 am Eastern Time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Brett Perryman, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Brett.

Brett Perryman

Analyst

Good morning, and welcome to OMAM's conference call to discuss our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2015. Before we get started, I would like to note that certain comments made on this call may constitute forward-looking statements for the purposes of the Safe Harbor provision under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are identified by words such as expect, anticipate, may, intend, believe, estimate, project, and other similar expressions. Such statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, the factors described in OMAM's filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our Form S-1 as filed with the SEC on June 8, 2015, as amended, under the heading "Risk Factors." Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions as of today and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. We urge you not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. During this call, we may discuss non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in today's earnings press release, which is available in the Investor Relations section of our Web site, where you will also find the slides that we will use as part of our discussion this morning. Today's call will be led by Peter Bain, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Steve Belgrad, our Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Peter.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Thank you, Brett. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for take the time with us this morning to talk about the business. We do know you are very busy. There’s a lot going on, so we appreciate it. What I’d like to do is walk you through some key drivers and observations both about the fourth quarter of 2015 as well as the full year. And then ask Steve to walk you through a little more financial detail. And then we’ll look forward, as always, to Q&A with you to have a real conversation about the business. For the year 2015, we delivered ENI per share of $1.24 to our shareholders. That’s a little less than $0.02 down from the $1.26 that we delivered in 2014, and the fourth quarter really tells the story. In the fourth quarter, we delivered $0.30 a share and that compares to the fourth quarter prior period of $0.39. The difference in those two fourth quarters really is entirely performance fees. And so what you can see when you look at the year-over-year results is that the core earnings engine of the franchise delivered growth in 2015 even with the substantial volatility and market declines of the entire second half of the year. On the flow front, the fourth quarter again was a challenge with about 3.2 billion of net AUM outflow in the fourth quarter aggregating 5.1 billion on the AUM front for the year. For the year, however, we did continue to generate and it reflects the positive asset mix we’ve been exhibiting over the last few quarters. We generated 18.9 million of net organic revenue growth over the year 2015, which is about 2.6% of the beginning of the year run rate management fees. That includes and reflects a $6.6 million net revenue…

Stephen H. Belgrad

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Great. Thanks, Peter, and good morning. The fourth quarter of 2015 was a challenging one for the industry and OMAM faced many of the same headwinds as our peers in terms of flows and markets. While the headline ENI results for the quarter show a decline from the fourth quarter of last year, this was primarily a result of lower performance fees, which by their nature can be volatile from year-to-year. Looking beyond this element of revenue, the core profitability of the business remains solid. In the fourth quarter, we saw a number of positive financial trends in the business including continued increases in fee rates, the benefits of a variable cost structure and performance in line with the key metrics we guided to on previous calls. The first month of 2016 has brought its own challenges and I’ll give more detail regarding our expectations for 2016 shortly. But we’re clearly benefitted by our profit sharing operating model. In periods of declining markets and margin, the OMAM shareholder impact is cushioned by lower formulaic bonuses and distributions at the affiliates. These are key elements of our economic model. Comparing fourth quarter of '15 to fourth quarter of '14, economic net income was down 22% quarter-over-quarter at 36.5 million or $0.30 per share driven by a $23 million decline in performance fees from an excellent 2014 to a weaker 2015 given volatile markets. Core profit was stable, excluding performance fees. While market declines and outflows resulted in a 3% decline in average assets from the year-ago quarter, excluding equity accounted affiliates, our continued shift in asset mix towards higher fee products enabled us to grow management fee revenue by 3% during this period. Combined, operating expenses in variable comp fell by 2.5% year-over-year driven by lower G&A and variable compensation. However,…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Craig Siegenthaler from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.

Craig Siegenthaler

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Thanks, guys. Good morning.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Hi, Craig.

Stephen H. Belgrad

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Good morning.

Craig Siegenthaler

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

So I want to circle back on the buyback. So your liquidity, as you mentioned, is a lot lower than some other asset manager stock, so I just want to hear you perspective on how you really plan to manage liquidity while also reducing the float at the same time?

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Yes. Look, it’s exactly the right issue to hone in on, Craig, and it’s something that we’ve had probably the most important analysis and debate on internally. I think you’re right. There’s lots of conversation in a market like this about buybacks and I think what you’ve seen is a number of other public firms talk about their buyback activity. All of those other firms are fully distributed businesses. And so we’re uniquely positioned. We recognize that we’re only about 35% publicly distributed. We have been cognizant of that float question. I think there’s no doubt in our views that increasing the float as a business proposition is a very wise thing to do. So what we’ve got to balance against that is our view as to capital deployment and our view as to the way the industry has traded down and rerated down. And at a certain point, we just look at a stock price and say, there’s so much potential accretion that we can create for our shareholders by engaging in that activity that we’re going to do it and we’ll balance that against the float. And I think given where the industry is traded and given where our stock is, we certainly wanted to be in a position to be able to act on it. And really that’s really all we’ve done is to get the Board to authorize us to do it. We’ll get the shareholders because of our UK domicile to approve it. And it just gives us the flexibility to do it. The other reality is we are so again deleveraged as a firm that we have the cash capacity to do that as well as undertake M&A. So, it’s one of those very interesting time periods for us as a firm. We are pretty unique. We’re going into a challenging market with great liquidity, great cash resources and yet we’ve got this public float issue that we want to be very careful and sensitive too. And then that’s how we’re going to look at the buyback and that’s how we’re going to evaluate whether to go into the market.

Craig Siegenthaler

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

And then Peter, just as my follow up, does this in any way give a signal in terms of the M&A environment today? Obviously, risky asset prices are down, maybe smart sellers aren’t as well to sell today as they were six, nine months ago. And also, can you refocus the buyback away from the float towards potential old mutual PLC distributions in the future?

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Yes. You got two in there, Craig, and I got to separate them because they’re different. Let me do the M&A one first. I want to be really, really clear on this one. The buyback is an entirely different strategic question from M&A and we have the liquidity and cash to do both. So, one has effectively no impact on the other and they’re just both good capital deployment, value creation alternatives. And then in the M&A segment specifically, it really is a function of which segment you’re looking at. I mean you’re quite right. If you’re talking about traditional long-only managers and they’re very good businesses and they’re generating outflow, but their AUM base is simply down because of macro market levels, they’re the ones who might want to say, let’s take a pause because we have a strong belief that in six to nine months we’re going to be in a different position, and that makes sense. But there’s a whole world or alternative managers out there with very interesting non-core related strategies who are delivering value, who are interested in exploring strategic opportunities and aren’t really negatively impacted in the same way that traditional long-only equity managers are. And I think we’ve discussed in the past when we’ve identified asset classes that would be strategic for us in M&A, there are a number of them that are alternative classes. And those are the ones where we’re focusing our conversations currently and those are the right places for us to be. On the last piece, which was the PLC question, to enable us as a regulatory and governance matter to engage in a bilateral repurchase of equity from PLC, that likewise under the legal regime would require shareholder approval and that’s something that we would certainly consider. We’re in discussions with PLC and our Board about that. And certainly it’s something that we would be very sensitive to our public shareholders about and more than likely would want to have some conversations with them about it as well. But that certainly is an avenue that you want to have a conversation with PLC about.

Stephen H. Belgrad

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

And just to clarify, the shareholder vote on a PLC directed buyback would have to be for shareholders, excluding PLC.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

We’d have to secure approval of a majority of non-PLC shareholders for that component of it, that’s right.

Craig Siegenthaler

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Got it. Thanks, guys.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Okay.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Carrier from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.

Michael Carrier

Analyst · Michael Carrier from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open

All right. Thanks, guys.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Carrier from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open

Hi, Michael.

Michael Carrier

Analyst · Michael Carrier from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open

Hi. Pete, just on the organic growth outlook, it looks like from a performance standpoint the affiliates are holding up well despite the volatility. You still have the product areas that are in demand. So, any sense – I know there is some lumpy items this quarter but when you think about the outlook where the investor demand is coming in, what you have to offer? How you kind of see that outlook? I know the volatility makes it a little bit tougher.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Carrier from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open

The volatility does make it tougher. In the conversations that we’re having with our affiliates as well as our global distribution folks who are out in the markets outside the U.S., here’s I think what we’re hearing and experiencing. The volatility does not seem to be resulting in institutional investors making decisions to exit the equity markets and go to cash, but what is being looked at and therefore may create a tiny bit of pause, which I think is benign is whether there’s going to be a rotation among equity classes. And if that is what happens, I think we’re in reasonable shape because we are in a well diversified set of equity classes across the spectrum and we have deliverable alpha in those classes. So in fact the institutional world goes into a rotational phase, because of the volatility, I think we feel okay about that.

Michael Carrier

Analyst · Michael Carrier from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open

Okay, that’s good. And then Steve you gave a lot of the guidance on some of the ratios in the expenses. I guess just on the operating expenses, when you think about this environment and the update for January, that’s just helpful, but when you think about the areas that you can pull back if you do get into a more challenging environment, do you have much flexibility there? I know the model isn’t as sensitive as maybe the more traditional model but just in terms of what you do have some variable cost levers?

Stephen H. Belgrad

Analyst · Michael Carrier from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open

Look, Mike, we’ve already begun to – it’s been clear towards the end of the year and in the beginning of this year that it was going to be a more challenging environment. And as we’ve managed the center and had discussions with affiliates, we’ve been focused on things anywhere from my normal cost of living increases, the base salaries. We’ve been very, very tight on that at the center in terms of trying to pull back from things like that that are in a way discretionary that you do when you know the environment’s going to be tough. And looking at things like G&A expenses that are discretionary. I think the good news about the model is that the affiliates have the same incentive to be managing their businesses and looking at their operating costs. And there are a lot of things that we were looking at from an expense point of view in the budget when we went through that process that you can look at and try to figure out, look, can you delay it for six months or a year and there are other things like our strategic initiative that we – they’re sort of multiyear investments that you can’t just say, well, the team has started but let’s not pay them for six months or something. So we’re continuing to invest for the long term while looking at where there are discretionary ways to defer things like cost of living or defer things that we may be able to spend money six months out or next year once the environment is more clear.

Michael Carrier

Analyst · Michael Carrier from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Carrier from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open

Yup

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open.

Michael Kim

Analyst · Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open

Hi, guys. Good morning. First, just a follow up on the share repurchase authorization. I know you mentioned the vote potentially at the end of April but assuming you get the approval, just curious how we should be thinking about buybacks in terms of your approach and timelines, if you will.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open

That’s work that we and the Board are engaged in, in real time and this answer may sound simplistic but I think it’s true. There’s not a lot of rocket science. We look very hard at where the stock is priced. And we’ve got an IRR analysis of the deployment of capital. And we would take a hard look at that time where the stock is trading, what options we have to deploy capital to create value for shareholders and where the buyback sorts itself out in terms of that IRR relative return. And if we conclude that it’s a compelling IRR for our shareholders, we’ll take a look at the average daily volume, we’ll take a look at how much we can buy back, we’ll take a look at where PLC is on the issue and then we’ll execute it accordingly. It’s very straightforward stuff. That’s the interesting thing about buyback. You’re not evaluating the culture of an acquisition candidate, you’re not engaging in a lot of subjective analysis. It’s very much a function of where’s the stock trading and what alternative deployment returns can you generate with your capital and that’s exactly how we’ll look at it.

Michael Kim

Analyst · Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open

Okay, that’s helpful. And then in terms of deals, I guess there’s been some questions around PLC. So just wondering how much input they have, if any, as it relates to potential transactions because I understand they want to maximize the value of their ownership stake but they might also have their own capital or accounting issues, if you will, to focus on. And then, does that dynamic change assuming they go below a certain ownership position?

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open

Yes, all right, a couple of things there. One, the capital issue related to PLC was simply a function of their having to work through the new Solvency II regulatory regime in the UK and that was just work that needed to be completed. That work is completed. And based on our discussions with them and our M&A program, we do not see any capital constraint associated with Solvency II or capital ratios that would impact what we proposed to do on the M&A front. And on the financing front, we’re still financing and so therefore there’s no cash issue. So we don’t have a concern there. PLC understands our strategy, is engaged in conversation with us about it and supports it. There’s a shareholders’ agreement that was a part of the registration statement and without getting too technical, the framework we operate in is to the extent there’s an acquisition transaction the purchase price of which is in excess of 100 million. Then PLC will need to approve it and we’re obviously in governance framework with them that is designed to get that managed correctly and appropriately. So I think that’s really the framework that we’re in on that front and it’s pretty benign.

Michael Kim

Analyst · Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open

Got it, okay. And then just one last --

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open

You had one more thing, Mike, I apologize, let me finish that, which is as a regulatory and accounting matter, when PLC ownership goes below 50%, then the impact of the intangibles that are generated by an asset management acquisition on PLC’s Solvency II ratios is meaningfully reduced. That’s the one trigger. So there is a relevance to how much they own and it is relatively more benign for them in terms of the accounting and regulatory capital impact on their Solvency II ratio if they own less than 50% of us.

Michael Kim

Analyst · Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open

Got it, okay. And then just one last quick one. I know you highlighted this earlier but just to be clear, as we look at sort of the AUM from clients in the Middle East being down from I think 1.7 billion at the end of the third quarter to like 300 million at the end of the fourth quarter, is that sort of a good indication in terms of both the size of the related redemptions in the fourth quarter as well as kind of the level of assets at risk going forward?

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open

That’s exactly what it is, Michael, yes. And in fact what I would point out for the group is I’d go back even further. If you look at where we started 2014 in the Middle East, it was 4.1 billion. So we have now in 2015 endured a 4.1 billion number that went to 300 million. So I think our view is for better or worse, that downside has gone.

Michael Kim

Analyst · Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open

Got it, okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Lee with KBW. Your line is now open.

Ann Dai

Analyst · Robert Lee with KBW. Your line is now open

Hi. Good morning. This is Ann Dai standing in for Rob.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Robert Lee with KBW. Your line is now open

You did not sound like Rob.

Ann Dai

Analyst · Robert Lee with KBW. Your line is now open

Yes, I don’t look like Rob either. So, good morning all. I just wanted to zoom in quickly on the sales that you’re generating through your strategic initiatives. I’m just wondering if you could give us – you’ve lifted them down but if you could give us an update on where each of them stand in terms of the stage. So are there relatively done? Do you feel like there’s more work to do on some of them? And then looking forward, where do you feel like there are some gaps that you could maybe invest in and drive some additional sales?

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Robert Lee with KBW. Your line is now open

Okay, that’s fair. On the products that are included in the seed capital graph, I would say that those products are now in the market because the track record is seasoned and due to saleable and therefore it’s not as if those products are, if you will, finished at all. In fact, they are simply active products in the market that can continue to grow and we would hope they would continue to grow. So that’s a good positioning for that. In the growth initiatives in the middle, some are still in our view seasoning their records and therefore we think there is more potential for acceleration of sales in that segment as they mature, because some of those are relatively newer initiatives. And then on the global distribution side, I think our challenge there is to make sure we continue to bring good product that is in the demand for the kind of sophisticated non-U.S. investors and sub-advisory platforms that global distribution calls on to position them well. Interestingly, there’s a statistic that I think is useful in evaluating the global distribution framework, which is – and to get a feel for the size of relationships that group are working with. You see a big difference in the AUM brought in 2014 versus 2015 but from my perspective, interestingly, in 2015 the AUM came in, in nine new relationships; 1.4 billion in 2015 came in, in eight new relationships. And what can happen in that market is you can bring in a new relationship that will have a substantial initial funding in that market. You can also bring in an important relationship that will have a relatively modest initial funding that can grow. And so in terms of activity and performance of global distribution, we’re very comfortable that 2015 was a productive year and continue to make progress, and frankly it also highlights what 2013 and 2014 were in terms of real successes. So that’s how I look at those three components.

Ann Dai

Analyst · Robert Lee with KBW. Your line is now open

I appreciate the color and thank you.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Robert Lee with KBW. Your line is now open

Yup.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Bill Katz with Citi. Your line is now open.

Bill Katz

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open

Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Just, Pete, you mentioned that you could see some potential rotation. I’m sort of curious what asset classes do you think would be vulnerable, what subcategories do you think will be vulnerable versus what might grow? And how might that impact your revenue capture trends?

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open

I think that if I think through the rotation and this was really based on the conversations I’ve been having with our distribution people as well as the affiliates, I think that there are clients looking very hard at global equity and trying to make some sense out of, is now the time given the uncertainty in the overall world framework and frankly what is the potential decoupling of major regions, do you want to see some rotation out of global and into more specific equity classes. So that’s one I would keep an eye on. The other one, which is sort of a flipside of that, interestingly enough, is I’ve talked to a number of people who are engaged in conversations with institutional investors who are really looking at emerging markets for an entry point. And I think that that’s kind of a bifurcated framework where some – the issue they’re wrestling through and doing analysis on is, is it still the proverbial falling knife or is it now in fact the entry point because it’s been oversold. So I’d say of all the asset classes to think about in terms of general rotational trends, I think that global is one you keep an eye on, on the potential rotation out and the emerging markets is a potential rotation in for what that’s worth.

Bill Katz

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open

That’s helpful. And so as a framework – your presentation is by the way best in class and really very helpful. When you talk about your pipeline and obviously you’ve explained away some of the sovereign wealth exposure here that’s sort of dumb down your organic growth rate. When I look at your pipeline from here, how does it look qualitatively or quantitatively versus maybe a year ago or six months ago, just want to try and get a sense of how the volatility may have hurt or helped the overall lead indicator for growth?

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open

Yes, it’s a good question because my answer is different depending upon is it a year ago or six months ago and that’s what interesting, Bill. This is a dynamic market. Sometimes you’re in a long, long-term trend; other times you’re in transition period. I think this is a market that’s in transition. I would tell you that the pipeline today relative to a year ago is probably a little more conservatively positioned. There’s a little more caution and concern, because I think January of '15 we had a really good looking pipeline and you had a very strong first six months. But I think if you asked us what the pipeline looks like today relatively to four or five months ago, I would tell you I think we feel good about the pipeline today, because I think we have some clarity at least in our view of where we think we can provide real value to clients in the market and are in real conversations with them about that. So that’s how I kind of parse that out.

Bill Katz

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open

Okay. And then just a last one, it’s sort of a two-part question, so intrigued [ph] with your IRR calculation, which makes a lot of sense. How do you think about the IRR, is it the same IRR between a deal and buyback because I’m wondering if you’re willing to share what your cost to capital is? And then separately, can you give us an update on what kind of alternative managers you’re looking at these days?

Stephen H. Belgrad

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open

Yes. On the IRR, theoretically at least, the way we’ve thought about it is we’re repurchasing our own shares. And so we look at it at the entry point that we’re buying in. The dividends over, say, a five-year period and then what theoretically the exit would be at various P multiples, growth rates of earnings, that sort of thing and look at what kind of IRR we have. I mean in general, one might think of our pure rock bottom sort of cost to capital at probably about 8% to 9%. If we’re looking at M&A transactions, realistically it clearly has to be about 15%. We would sort of stay in the 15% to 20% what we’re looking at in M&A transactions and that’s sort of the hurdle that we think about when we’re looking at stock buybacks as well. Likewise from an EPS accretion, we’re again looking at, okay, for a $100 million of acquisitions what would be the accretion to EPS be. And then likewise at a certain level of stock buyback, what kind of accretion would you get for the same amount of proceeds buying at different prices. And you can pretty easily come to a breakeven of okay above a certain level, M&A is probably – provides better accretion and below a certain level, buyback is more accretion. And so that’s sort of the way we think about it. That’s not to say it’s sort of an ironclad rule but those are sort of the theoretical ways that we’re coming about trying to think about, okay, in the market on a buyback basis and at what prices might you slow down or pull back a little bit.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open

And on the M&A question, Bill, on the alternative asset classes, I think what we’ve said in the past and this continues to hold true, which is good, is in the alternative space we find alternative credit interesting. And that is a pretty interesting class. It can encompass a number of core skills in terms of distress debt or high yield debt or actually direct lending origination in various markets; middle market, mezzanine, various places in the capital stack. So that alternative credit space continues to be interesting to us; likewise, broadly defined category of private equity. It’s an interesting earning stream. The investor horizon in terms of duration tends to be non-core related and differentiated and more stable and extended. But there are different components to those businesses also, obviously. They tend to have a higher component of performance-based compensation either in the form of a carry or a preferred return or a performance fee. And also they tend to have components involving co-investment capital. So as distinct from owning a participation in the earnings stream thrown off by a long-only manager who is receiving management fees on the basis of AUM, you need to take a look at the economic model of an alternative manager and really understand what the earning streams are of that business model, where they can come from and what capital risks are associated with it. And you need to make sure that you are very, very comfortable with the actual risk you’re taking as an owner, and critically importantly you need to be very smart about how you allocate those cash flows as between ownership and management, because I think there are aspects of those businesses that will militate toward wanting management to retain the vast majority of certain performance and carried interest and equity-based earning streams, because I think the clients and the institutional consultants in the community believe that that’s where those components of fees should go. So it’s a different asset class but we continue to look at it and those are the components that we think are interesting.

Bill Katz

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open

Okay. Thanks for the color.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open

Yup.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Michael Cyprys

Analyst · Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Hi. Good morning.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Good morning, Michael.

Michael Cyprys

Analyst · Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Thanks for all the detail in the presentation of disclosure, it’s very helpful.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Good.

Michael Cyprys

Analyst · Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Just starting off on the impact of lower market values and you had that slide at the end of the presentation on the impact to expenses, it certainly seems pretty formulaic in terms of how it flows those the variable comp given your business model. And just on the expenses, recognize you don’t want to harm the medium-term growth prospects of the business and the opportunities. So, I guess just at what point do you reconsider. What will need to happen there? And then second, what other action could you take even before that just in terms of opportunities either for greater outsourcing at the center or even at the affiliate level, and what sort of streamlining could take place at the affiliate level in terms of back office operations and outsourcing?

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

I will give you my business answer, Michael, because I think actually that’s your question is philosophically how do we look at this. And I’ll start by reminding everyone that that bottom right graph on Page 22, the headline is hypothetical, right. Let’s remember this is hypothetical and hypothetical here is pretty extreme. It’s essentially saying a full 10% drop in the market immediately and then no appreciation for the rest of the year. So, that’s a pretty extreme situation, all right. And in that framework, you’re talking about a franchise that would only experience a 12% decline in ENI. So I think we start there and say, if that’s the environment that actually occurs we got some room to watch what’s happening with the business and we will. Now philosophically in looking at expenses, we basically trifurcate, if you will, the world of expense in our mind. One is, expense related to investments we’re making in the business that we believe are long-term strategic and will create compound value for the franchise. The second is expenses that are incurred in conjunction with revenue-generating activity. And then the third is operating expense, which is not related to revenue generation but is in our view important to the business. You don’t just stop managing risk because expenses are tight and risk doesn’t necessarily generate revenue, right. And so we’re going to work very hard to be very thoughtful and not pennywise pound foolish in working on the expense base. We’re inclined certainly in the existing environment and probably even in the hypothetical one to continue to make the investments, the strategic growth initiatives in the business that we think are going to create compound value. We’re likely to continue to take on expense that’s generating revenue but we will look at…

Michael Cyprys

Analyst · Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Great, that’s very helpful. And then just a follow up given the challenging environment here and the skew toward equities within your portfolio. I guess just how are you thinking about evolving the affiliate mix from here, and does the market move that we’ve seen change at all your thinking around sort of what next to add or even accelerating that.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Yes, I don’t know that it accelerates it but it certainly doesn’t change it. We’ve always talked about the strength of the franchise being in the equity markets and how well diversified among the equity markets we are. That’s still true. And therefore we talked about wanting to execute acquisition transactions that will strategically diversify our skill set, alternative credit, private equity, non-core related return to product. That continues to be true. So I think we’re an equity long manager. The equity markets have been challenged. We were already looking to diversify beyond and that continues to be true. I don’t know that it accelerates it.

Michael Cyprys

Analyst · Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

So not much interest in fixed income outside of alternative credit.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

It depends on how you characterize alternative credit. I mean there’s a case to be made that the smartest income business you can engage in is the intelligent origination of direct lending credit in this market, right. And by the way, what kind of fixed income can you actually get somebody to pay you for.

Michael Cyprys

Analyst · Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Okay. Thanks.

Peter L. Bain

Analyst · Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Okay. Thanks, Michael.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I’d like to turn the conference call back over to Peter Bain.