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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon. I will be your conference operator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Applied Optoelectronics' Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please also note, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Lindsay Savarese, Investor Relations for AOI. Mrs. Savarese, you may begin.
LS
Lindsay Savarese
Analyst
Thank you. I'm Lindsay Savarese, Investor Relations for Applied Optoelectronics. I am pleased to welcome you to AOI's second quarter 2024 financial results conference call. After the market closed today, AOI issued a press release announcing its second quarter 2024 financial results and provided its outlook for the third quarter of 2024. The release is also available on the company's website at ao-inc.com. This call is being recorded and webcast live. A link to the recording can be found on the Investor Relations section of the AOI website and will be archived for one year. Joining us on today's call is Dr. Thompson Lin, AOI's Founder, Chairman and CEO; and Dr. Stefan Murry, AOI's Chief Financial Officer and Chief Strategy Officer. Thompson will give an overview of AOI's Q2 results, and Stefan will provide financial details and the outlook for the third quarter of 2024. A question-and-answer session will follow our prepared remarks. Before we begin, I would like to remind you to review AOI's safe harbor statement. On today's call, management will make forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties as well as assumptions and current expectations, which could cause the company's actual results, levels of activity, performance or achievements of the company, or its industry to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terminology such as believes, forecast, anticipates, estimates, projects, intends, predicts, expects, plans, may, should, could, would, will, potential or things or by the negative of those terms or other similar expressions that convey uncertainty of future events or outcomes. The company has based these forward-looking statements on its current expectations, assumptions, estimates and projections. While the company believes these expectations, assumptions, estimates and projections are reasonable, such forward-looking statements are…
TL
Thompson Lin
Analyst
Thank you, Lindsay, and thank you for joining our call today. Our revenue for the second quarter was in line with our expectations. While our non-GAAP gross margin came in below our expectations, primarily due to product mix, our non-GAAP loss per share was favorable compared to our expectations. During the second quarter, we delivered a revenue of $43.3 million, which was within our guidance range of $41.5 million to $46.5 million. We delivered non-GAAP gross margin of 22.5%, which was below our guidance range of 25.5% to 27.5%. Our non-GAAP loss per share was $0.28, which was favorable compared to our guidance range of loss of $0.29 to $0.35 per share. Our revenue for our data center product of $34.4 million was up 25% year-over-year and 19% sequentially. Revenue for our 100G products increased 21% year-over-year and revenue for our 400G products more than double in the same period. We are pleased to report that we have begun to receive initial order for 400G products from a larger - large hyper-scale customer, and we are very excited about this new customer interaction. With this new customer, we now are shipping 400G products to three out of the five largest hyper-scale data center customers in the U.S. Total revenue in our CATV segment was $5.8 million, which was down 38% year-over-year and 33% sequentially largely driven by continued generally slow sales of DOCSIS 3.1 equipment. As the industry prepares to transition to DOCSIS 4.0, we believe that this transition is underway and expect our [CATV 6] to begin to ramp in Q3. With that, I'll turn the call over to Stefan to review the details of our Q2 performance and our outlook for Q3. Stefan?
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst
Thank you, Thompson. As Thompson mentioned, our revenue for the second quarter was in line with our expectations. While our non-GAAP gross margin came in below our expectations largely due to product mix, our non-GAAP loss per share was favorable compared to our expectations. As a reminder, on our Q1 call, we discussed a number of key reasons why we felt optimistic about the second half of the year despite a slow start to 2024. Today, we're pleased to report that we have executed on many of these initiatives that we believe will position the company for long-term success and continue to give us optimism for the second half of the year and beyond. As Thompson mentioned earlier, we've begun to receive orders for 400G products from another large hyper-scale customer, and we expect to ship these initial orders in Q3. While the initial orders are relatively small, we are very excited about this new customer interaction. With this new customer, we are now shipping 400G products to three out of the five largest hyper-scale data center customers in the U.S. We previously discussed on our Q1 call how we had begun to receive forecasted orders for the VCSEL-based 400G active optical cables, for which Microsoft provided development funding last year. As demonstrated by our Q2 datacenter results, we have started to see business improvements and expect to see continued improvement throughout the year. While the initial ramp has been slower than originally anticipated, recent forecasts indicate a substantial improvement in revenue in late Q3 and into Q4 and beyond. We anticipate that this will represent a longer-term, sustainable increase in business and are excited for this product to finally transition to wider usage within our customers' datacenters. Lastly, in our CATV business, we have finalized the qualification testing with…
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And today's first question comes from Simon Leopold with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
SL
Simon Leopold
Analyst
Great. Thank you for taking the questions. I've got a handful. Let me start out with on this - the new hyperscale win, which sounds nice, and I guess something you guys have been shooting for a bit. Can you give us a little bit more color on the nature of this award? Is this another AOC type of device, or any kind of color you can give us on the contents of what you're selling to this - in this new project? Then I've got a follow-up on the CATV segment?
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst
Yes. I mean, for confidentiality reasons, I really can't disclose too much about it, but it's a product that's more in line with our standard data center type transceiver product, and it is a 400 gig product. And then a single mold.
SL
Simon Leopold
Analyst
400G. Great. And then on the CATV.
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst
Go ahead
SL
Simon Leopold
Analyst
Thank you. On the CATV side, I kind of thought we were bottoming last quarter, so a little bit surprised, but everything suggests that the ramp of DOCSIS 4.0 is still coming, maybe just slower than we once expected. So, I'm wondering if you could level set us in terms of, how you expect that product segment to develop, and maybe this is a little bit of an artificial metric, but I'm just trying to figure out where do we kind of get back to maybe a $25 million quarterly run rate? Is that a second half '25 event, or can that happen earlier than that? Any kind of guidance you could give us around the timing of the CATV ramp would help?
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst
Well, as we said in our prepared remarks, I expect a substantial improvement in CATV revenue in Q3. So I expect we'll be back at a $25 million number before the end of the year, on that range. The challenge that we have right now, as we noted in the Cable TV section, is really on the gross margin in Q3, based on the guide. What we expected was Cable TV gross margin to come in, significantly higher than our data center business. And in Q3, we had some cost overruns and things, as we start to ramp this product. So, we're expecting that gross margin to not be, where we wanted to ultimately settle out. So for us, the excitement in Q3 around the revenue ramp in CATV is real. It's a little bit muted, because of the additional expenses that we're incurring, but those are temporary.
SL
Simon Leopold
Analyst
Great. And just the last one, hopefully easy. The share count is jumping in the guidance for the third quarter. Could you just help explain that? Thank you.
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst
Yes, I mean, it's a combination of stock grants that have already been made, and some provision for additional issuance of shares.
SL
Simon Leopold
Analyst
Great. Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Tim Savageaux with Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
TS
Timothy Savageaux
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon, and congrats on the outlook in particular and the new win. Just to go back on, well, kind of the guidance, I guess, it sounds like based on your answer to the last question, maybe as we look into this solid increase with Q4, the expected seller rate, sorry, Q3, the expected seller rate into Q4, seems like maybe it's 50-50, data center and cable. But any more color on - for this $20 million sequential increase you're looking for, is that about right and thinking about where it's coming from? And then, I will follow-up?
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
In Q3, more of the additional revenue is coming from cable than data center. And in Q4, the opposite we think will be true. That is data center will outgrow Cable TV and a dollar base in Q4 sequentially.
TS
Timothy Savageaux
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
It sure did, and that's super helpful. And then, just on the quarter, you had a new 10% customer pop up in data center, I assume not a new customer. And it looks like Microsoft is pretty flat from an absolute dollar standpoint, but you did see an increase in 100 gig. So should we assume that one of the maybe not hyperscale, but big kind of internal, I guess we're in data centers for internal capabilities, you've had a few of those guys, not necessarily internal, but associated with the business. I can think of a few names that, might fit that bill and doing a lot of AI investing, and maybe pulling along 100 gig or any more color on that new customer joining the list there?
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
No, the customer that popped up above 10%, it has been a customer for a while, but that's not the new customer that we were referring to. However, it is another hyperscale customer. And they're predominantly buying 400 gig, not 100 gig. And they're doing that, because they're aggressively building out their AI infrastructure as well.
TS
Timothy Savageaux
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Okay. And we'll - not to be dense here, but this is not -
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
The customers up on a revenue basis, they've grown almost 4x since Q1 in terms of their purchasing.
TS
Timothy Savageaux
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Great, awesome color, but that's not the new hyperscaler that you're referencing. Or is it?
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Right, it's not.
TS
Timothy Savageaux
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
It's not. Okay. And I guess last question started parse semantic so much here, but you mentioned the newer 400 gig customer. I think Thompson referred to that as a new customer, but is it better referred to as a historical customer that's come back, or this is a net new customer for applied offer?
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
So, we would classify a customer that hasn't stayed done business with us in a while, two years or something as a new customer, because it really is a new interaction for us.
TS
Timothy Savageaux
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Okay. Great and should we….?
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Sorry, please go ahead.
TS
Timothy Savageaux
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
I guess the last one was on, I hear you on the gross margin with the ramp in Q3 and the pressure coming out of cable. And you've given not guidance, but at least some directional idea on Q4 for revenue. Do you think, and maybe you said this, do you think you'll be able to resolve some of those gross margin issues in cable and Q4 to drive gross margin types? That's it from me?
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Yes, I think a lot of the extra costs that we're incurring in the production are really Q3. I think by Q4 we'll have most of that recovered. It may take us another quarter to get entirely back to where we expected to settle out longer-term, which would be circa 40%, maybe a little bit higher. So I think the bulk of the extra expense will be resolved by Q4. That's driving gross margin.
TS
Timothy Savageaux
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Dave Kang with B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.
DK
Dave Kang
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you. First question is just a follow-up on Tim's question about third quarter as well as fourth quarter for that matter. You expect data com, to drive strong growth, especially in fourth quarter. Just can you provide a little bit more color, more flavor, you know, whether it's 100 gig, 400 gig, 800 gig, any additional color would be appreciated?
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.
Sure, it's expected to be mostly 400 gig and some contribution from 800 gig in Q4.
DK
Dave Kang
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.
Got it.
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.
Because it's very relative to this table.
DK
Dave Kang
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.
Got it. And then just Microsoft AOC program sounds like starting to ramp. And you're still sticking with $300 million, because I'm wondering if you think maybe by exiting at what level to give us some comfort, maybe you can do $100 million next year. I mean, you think you can do $20 million, $25 million exiting this year? Or what, I guess, what are they forecasting?
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.
I mean, I think it remains to be seen. I think it would be tough to get all the way up to $25 million, let's say, in Q4. Things as we noted in our prepared remarks earlier, things in that project have gotten off to a slower start than what we had expected. They are starting to ramp, however, so, you know, we're still sticking with that $300 million aggregate number. Just a little bit later to get started than we expected.
DK
Dave Kang
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.
Got it. And then on 800 gig in our previous meeting, you talked about two hyperscalers ramping in third quarter. Now I think you said in the prepared remarks, now it's pushed the fourth quarter. Did I hear that correctly? And are we talking about - same hyperscalers or different customers?
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.
Yes. I remember correctly, the commentary you had was that - we would expect 800 gig sales for one or two hyperscale customers in late Q3 or early Q4. And that's pretty consistent with what we're seeing now. There are scenarios where we could literally get some orders in Q3, but I think if you saw enough that I'm more comfortable putting into the Q4 thing. But it's not a dramatic change from what we had talked about it.
DK
Dave Kang
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.
And my last question is on gross margin. I think you said the long-term target is 40%. Are we talking like the second half of next year? And if so, what kind of volume would you require for you to hit your target?
SM
Stefan Murry
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.
It's not as much about volume as it is about product mix. Dave, that's what we were talking about earlier. I mean the products that we have in our portfolio will have in our portfolio within the next year or so, have gross margins that range from in excess of 40% to somewhere in the low 20s. And actually, there's probably a few products that are even below that. But in terms of the major products, so it's the mix between those products. And in particular, the cable TV products generally come in, especially the DOCSIS 4.0 products are going to come in at a higher gross margin towards that upper end of the range that I mentioned a minute ago. And some of the 800 gig products will come in at pretty high gross margins as well. And the third factor that's going to drive the gross margins up, is the shift in 400 gig from predominantly multi-mode optics to single mode optics. So, we've seen some customer interest in particular, some of the new customer interactions that we talked about earlier. Those have been for single mode for 400 gig optics, which are significantly more expensive and have better gross margin than the multimode optics. So all three of those things are what will combine to drive gross margin up.
DK
Dave Kang
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.
Got it. Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Dr. Thompson Lin for closing remarks.
TL
Thompson Lin
Analyst
Okay. Thank you for joining us today. As always, we want to extend a thank you to our investors, customers and employees for your continued support, as we discussed today, we believe the long-term demand drivers remain strong for both our datacenter and CATV business, and we believe we are well positioned to capitalize on these opportunities. Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you, Dr. Lin. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful evening.