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Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 16, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Advance Auto Parts Fourth Quarter 2011 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. Before we begin, Joshua Moore, Director of Finance and Investor Relations, will make a brief statement concerning forward-looking statements that will be made on this call.

Joshua Moore

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for joining us on today's call. I'd like to remind you that our comments today contain forward-looking statements. We intend to be covered, and we claim the protection under the Safe Harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements address future events, developments or results and typically use words such as believe, anticipate, expect, intend, will, plan, forecast, outlook or estimate and are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may cause the results to differ materially, including competitive pressures, demand for the company's products, the economy in general, consumer debt levels, dependence on foreign suppliers, the weather, business interruptions and other factors disclosed in the company's 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 1, 2011, on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company intends these forward-looking statements to speak only as of the time of this conference call and does not undertake to update or revise them as more information becomes available. The reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measures mentioned on the call with the corresponding GAAP measures are described in our earnings release and our SEC filings, which can be found on our website at advanceautoparts.com. For planning purposes, our first quarter earnings release is scheduled for Thursday, May 17, 2012, before market opens. And our quarterly conference call is scheduled for the morning of Thursday, May 17, 2012. To be notified of future dates of earnings reports, you can sign up through the Investor Relations section of our website. Finally, a replay of this call will be available on our website for 1 year. Now let me turn the call over to Darren Jackson, our President and Chief Executive Officer. Darren?

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

Thanks, Joshua. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter conference call. First, I'd like to thank our 52,000 Team Members for their hard work and congratulate them on an outstanding performance in the fourth quarter and for fiscal 2011. The team's focus and dedication enabled us to achieve new record levels of performance this year. Our continued investment in service and availability translated into industry-leading service experience as measured by NPD, while improving the efficiency of our operations. Together, these investments resulted in record profitability as reflected in our 90 basis point improvement in our operating income rate, which reached an all-time high of 10.8%. We remain on track to achieve our goal of 12%. Our improved operating performance enabled our full year earnings per share to grow 29.4% to $5.11, while our return on invested capital reached a record 19.5%. Mike will provide more specific details on the fourth quarter and our full year results in a few minutes, as well as the outlook for 2012. Our heritage is grounded in our commitment to service and is reflected in our promise "Service is our best part." Just as important, our values, inspire, serve and grow, are critical to how we deliver on our promise on a consistent basis. Together, our team's dedication to our promise and values resulted in record levels of customer satisfaction, Team Member engagement and financial returns in 2011. Operationally, we set new standards of achievement in delivery speed, reliability, inventory on hand and e-commerce sales, to name a few. Finally, we finished the year slightly below double-digit comps in our Commercial business and saw sequential improvements in DIY throughout 2011. We entered 2011 by simplifying our strategies to service leadership and superior availability. Service leadership, in simple terms, is to help customers buy through…

Kevin P. Freeland

Analyst

Thanks, Darren, and good morning. I'd also like to congratulate the team for a strong fourth quarter and year. I'll take a moment to highlight a few of our accomplishments during the quarter, as well as update you on our initiatives to support superior availability strategy and new store growth. Over the course of the year, we worked to increase the breadth and depth of our in-market product assortment and availability through our efforts to increase the number of hubs in the marketplace, as well as providing delivery capabilities from strategically positioned hubs. As a result, we've worked aggressively to add our number of hub stores in 2011, which now sits at 294, or an increase of 68 since Q4 of 2010. We upgraded the inventory in 47 stores for the quarter and 814 stores for the year. As a direct result of our hub strategy and our inventory upgrades, our in-stock levels were up nearly 90 basis points over last year and are at a record high. Despite our start to 2011, when our inventory levels increased 21% during the first quarter, our inventory levels at the end of the year were up only 9.6% versus the prior year. This is a great accomplishment, and I want to congratulate our inventory team as their focus on disciplined inventory management allowed us to exceed our goals by sequentially decelerating the rate of growth each quarter while continuing to build our -- build on our already high level of customer perception of availability. Additionally, we continued to expand our supply chain financing program and have reduced our owned inventory per store by 29.8%, with our total owned inventory decreasing $150 million versus the fourth quarter of last year. Our work in this space has led to an increase in our AP…

Michael A. Norona

Analyst

Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start by thanking all of our talented and dedicated Team Members for their contribution to the strong financial outcomes we delivered in our fourth quarter to close out another very solid year. I plan to cover the following 3 topics with you this morning: one, provide some financial highlights from our fourth quarter of 2011; two, put our fourth quarter results into context with both our full year performance and the key financial dimensions we use to measure our performance; and three, provide you with our annual financial outlook for 2012. Looking at our fourth quarter, we are pleased with our strong end of the year, with earnings per diluted share increasing 57.9% to $0.90 per share versus $0.57 for the prior year. For all of 2011, our earnings per share increased 29.4% to $5.11 on top of a 31.7% EPS increase in 2010. Our comp store sales increased 2.9% during the fourth quarter, which was on top of an 8.9% comp increase during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010, representing an 11.8% 2-year comp store sales increase. We are very pleased with this result as it marks our strongest comp performance for the year despite challenging comparisons. For the year, our comp store sales increased 2.2%, with total sales increasing 4.1% to nearly $6.2 billion. As Kevin mentioned, our gross profit rate in the fourth quarter was 49% versus 49.4% in the fourth quarter 2010, or a decrease of 39 basis points. This was in line with our expectations. The decline versus prior year was primarily driven by increased supply chain investments in hubs and slightly higher shrink expense. For the year, our gross profit rate decreased 24 basis points to 49.7%, which was in line with our previous outlook…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is from Gary Balter with Credit Suisse. Gary Balter - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Darren, I was going to ask you if you thought the Golden Eagles will win the BIG EAST Tournament before you get to your 12% operating income. But that's probably not a fair question, so I'll phrase it differently...

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

I think they're both in good shape. Gary Balter - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: When we say the goal of '12, that's -- given the guidance, you're not looking at that for this year, right? That's something that you're looking a couple years out?

Michael A. Norona

Analyst

Yes. Gary, it's Mike. Yes, that's right. We haven't changed our view on that. And we've said, over the next few years, we're going to get to 12%. And we made great progress in 2011, and we continue to be on track to achieve that goal. Gary Balter - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Now I'll ask that question. Gross margin was stronger than we expected this quarter, like it was down 39 but it'd come off down 80. What -- you mentioned also higher shrink. Could you discuss what were the components of the stronger gross margin and what gives you the confidence? Because you mentioned you expect it up next year as well.

Michael A. Norona

Analyst

Yes. Gary, it's Mike. Maybe I'll give you the components and then Kevin can give you some of the insights. The 2 big drivers were supply chain, and the story hasn't changed there as we've been putting in more hubs as part of our strategy to improve our market availability. A little bit higher gasoline prices, and investments we'll be making in our new DC and our WMS system. So that was the biggest part of the drain. And then our shrink year-over-year was down, but it was down less of a level than it's been in Q3 and Q2. So we're really pleased with the progress we're making -- that the Team Members are making on our shrink. But that was less of a component, but those were the 2 components.

Kevin P. Freeland

Analyst

Yes, Gary, this is Kevin. The other elements essentially all netted to an even number. We've been aggressively ensuring that we're staying price competitive with our key competitors, continuing to work to lower cost of acquisition of product through category management and global sourcing. As Mike said in his prepared statements, it appears to us as though the shrink headwinds will abate as we get into the back half of next year. But the other elements that sit underneath gross margin, we expect to continue to march ahead.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Tony Cristello with BB&T Capital Markets. Anthony F. Cristello - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: I wanted to talk a little bit about sort of your targeted share repurchase, how you're going to manage your leverage. I mean, down to 2x, which is certainly below your target, and your guidance reflects no share repurchase. Is there something we should consider as we look out for the balance of this year? Or is all systems sort of go but you're just going to be targeting it when it's most beneficial to you?

Michael A. Norona

Analyst

It's Mike. First of all, we're really pleased with what we did last year. We bought about 12% of the company back on the heels of, well, 13.6% the year before that, in 2010. Our philosophy on share buyback hasn't changed. I think we've bought back about 40% of the company since 2004, and we continue to talk about being opportunistic. And that really is our confidence in our ability to continue to create long-term value. So we'll continue to be opportunistic. We have confidence in our ability to continue to grow that value and our historical performance, especially when you look at things like our top line growth, our bottom line growth and our returns, our ROIC, that's up over 500 basis points over the last 4 years. And then the other -- some other pieces is obviously maintaining our leverage ratio under our maximum 2.5x is important to us. Year-over-year, we kept that thing at 2%, and we were at 2% -- sorry, we were at 2x in 2011. And then I think the most important thing for us is share buyback is one available use of our capital. Our first options are always how do we grow the business and looking at options on how we grow the business. So over the last number of years, we put money into commercial. We put money into e-commerce, and we've been very pleased with the returns we've gotten. Kevin's talked extensively about supply chain and the opportunities we have there, our new Remington DC, our new WMS. And I think Kevin said it, we're going to have one of the most automated supply chains. And we'll have an opportunity to see what that does and the efficiencies that it gives. So the first choice is obviously to look at where we put our capital to grow our business. And if there's other little tuck-in acquisitions and things like that, kind of second. And then third, a great way to pay back our shareholders. So our philosophy hasn't changed. And I'll just remind you, we had an open to buy of 300 million. We have 200 million left on that going into the quarter.

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

Yes, Tony. Just maybe to build on that, Mike. To answer your question directly, Tony, each year, we just make a deliberate decision not to include stock buyback in our guidance. And that hasn't changed from prior years either. And I think, in a word, we haven't changed our philosophy and our approach. We do plan to be opportunistic. And that opportunistic -- you've been watching us for a long, long time. As Mike said, we've bought back $2 billion of stock since 2004 at about an average price of $45. So we feel pretty good about that strategy and don't see really any need to change it. And the good news is we're well below our targeted leverage ratio. So that gives us a lot of flexibility. Anthony F. Cristello - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: Okay. And maybe if I can just have the follow-up on sort of prioritizing growth. And it seems like as we moved through the phases of 2011, you sort of pulled back on some initiatives and were focused on delivering profitability, and based on where sales trends were. And it seems like you've seen a little bit maybe more of an acceleration of investment, and I'm just trying to understand how much of that was intentional, how much of it was sort of what wasn't spent last year sort of was pushed into this year. And what's sort of the timing of this next phase of investment?

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

When I think about last year, a couple of things. We got out of the first quarter and, admittedly, we did not perform the way we thought and had hoped to perform. And quite frankly, the trends were just very different than when we started the year. And to your point, historically, we go into the year with heavy, heavy investment in the first quarter. I think in Mike's prepared comments, we're investing in the first quarter this year but not at the same levels that we have in historical years. And that phasing has moved, I would say, to be more evenly spread throughout the year. Because one of our learnings last year, and I think we've talked about this every conference call, is that the teams can absorb so much change in a period of time. And so what we've tried to do this year is even that out. And you're right, last year, I would say -- did we pull back on some investment in the second, third and the fourth quarter? Yes, we did a little bit, but it was really in the greater good of getting the process right and allowing the teams to absorb and execute. And you can see that playing out -- from my vantage point, you can see it playing out in the fourth quarter, in particular, that we were able to turn the tide on DIY, still grow the Commercial business at rates that we're happy with and improve our margins, improve our shrink and all those things that come with that, consistency of running the business. And we've gone into this year recognizing that's a big value to us, and we're spreading it out. So as Mike said, our first quarter is a quarter that, quite frankly, we feel really good about. And we tried to signal on the guidance for sure. Second, third and fourth, we feel really good about, but you know what, it will experience more investment this year than it did a year ago, just because of the lapping effect that we talked about.

Michael A. Norona

Analyst

And, Tony, just -- it's in my remarks, but maybe I'll add a little color to it. We are going to have a little bit of pacing and timing with our costs throughout the year. So for instance, we have our large GM meeting that always occurs in our first quarter. That's going to get moved to the second quarter this year. And advertising last year, as you remember, our advertising, we got out of the blocks last year with some strong advertising in Q1. That's going to be spread a little bit more evenly through the second quarter through Q4. So those are a couple of examples.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Matthew Fassler with Goldman Sachs.

Matthew J. Fassler - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

I'd like to start out by asking about traffic and ticket trends, particularly for DIY but for the business more broadly as well.

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

Yes. So I don't know that there's any new news, Matt, in terms of traffic and ticket trends versus Q2, Q3, Q4 for us this year. Most of the growth, if not all the growth in DIY, has come from larger ticket. Though we have seen, as you would expect, from the first quarter of the year last year through the fourth quarter, our traffic's improved. But we have been -- as Mike alluded to, we did turn to some more traffic-driving marketing as we got into the year last year versus brand advertising, which we did heavy in the first quarter of last year. So there's no new news in terms of what those trends look like. As we look to this next year, one of the things we think about is we know regionality was a drag on our business in 2011. That regionality we felt, obviously, in the traffic. And if you think about it, that just meant there was probably more deferred maintenance. And so if we're slightly optimistic -- we're slightly optimistic around the fact that we'll see a little better traffic trends this year. And we believe that those ticket trends will continue as we get into 2012, too.

Matthew J. Fassler - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

That's very helpful. And then as you think about Commercial, I guess in the context of it turned out to be a pretty good year, Commercial was a bit lower than double digit. And as you think about a sustainable growth rate for Commercial, both based on the market and based on your willingness to invest, how should we think about the next couple of years for that space?

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

Yes. We haven't changed our view on that either, Matt. We still see that as a double-digit comp grower for us. I would say that if I back up, we did, as I talked about in Tony's question, we did taper off some of our commercial investments last year in lieu of focusing on the execution. So as we come into this year, you'll experience us -- we've got still more wave markets to do, and we've built those into our plans. But we've built them in a way that we're spreading them across the year this year. And we think and we know from experience that those tend to certainly boost our comps and have a multi-quarter effect. So we don't have a different view either structurally about the commercial market. That seems to be as strong as it's been over the last several years. And this year, we must continue that investment pattern in our wave markets, our drivers and our delivery, speed things that we're focused on.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Greg Melich with ISI.

Gregory S. Melich - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Just to follow up on the traffic and ticket trends, just to be clear. As I back out, it looks like DIY was still around a negative 1. But it's fair to say it improved a couple of hundred bps through the year. So we can still assume that the traffic was down in DIY a couple percent. Is that my math?

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

Yes, Greg, fourth quarter or for the year?

Gregory S. Melich - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

For the fourth quarter.

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

Yes, traffic was down.

Gregory S. Melich - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And on gross margin, in terms of the outlook you guys provided, getting up a little bit, how important is getting the DC up and running and getting the inventory built for that to helping the gross margin start to grow again? And how should we think about that in terms of continuing to extend the payables, which obviously has been such a great job to help free cash flow?

Kevin P. Freeland

Analyst

Yes, Greg, this is Kevin. Essentially, the investments that we're making to bring Remington online are being offset this year through some efficiency programs that we launched that are literally taking effect in the first quarter. So that should be relatively neutral in the overall picture. Mike, in his comments, mentioned that we expect the shrink to abate across the year and no longer be essentially a topic in the back half of this year. We're continuing to expand the global sourcing program. And while it was incredible percentage numbers early on, it is a substantial base at this point. And we're putting large percentages on top of large dollars. So that will continue to fuel the numbers. In terms of the supply chain financing, I would just ask you to look back at the last 3 years of how that program has unfolded. It is a day-by-day, negotiation-by-negotiation process that is a multi-year program. We're certainly proud of how that has played out and proud of the teams that are working on that. We're also proud of the speed at which we've deployed it. Another competitor in our space, certainly ahead of us, but it took them over a decade to accomplish what they were doing as they were blazing a trail, so to speak. But our plans would see improvements in that area for this year and likely beyond.

Gregory S. Melich - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

So at the end of this year, 2012, would you expect inventory to grow at a similar rate to what it did in 2011?

Kevin P. Freeland

Analyst

Much of the investments that we made this past year, so a substantial increase in the number of hub stores, we continue to see opportunities there, although we leapt ahead last year, did far more than we had historically done. Our plans for this year would look more similar to what you would have seen prior to 2011. So our inventory plans for the year would not -- which in total outgrew the cost of goods sold. As we go into next year or as we go into the balance of this year, it would be not likely that we would continue to aggregate inventory at that same rate, but instead would be a more modest growth in inventory. The intersection of that, with improved supply chain financing, we would expect to see similar cash flow going back to the company through improvements of reducing owned inventory.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Chris Horvers with JPMorgan. Christopher Horvers - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Last year at this time, your sales were really hurt by geography and timing in the calendar, given really heavy storms in January and April. So is it fair to say that, that's working in your favor this year and perhaps comps have accelerated? And then related to that, can you talk about how the regionality changed sequentially in terms of the drag, 3Q to 4Q?

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

Yes. I can do this. So as we -- I said in our prepared remarks, Chris, that both DIY and Commercial are off to a good start this year. And certainly -- I mean, we've all been doing this long enough to know that last year, and we said this last year, January was tough in terms of the weather, and particularly in the Northeast. So there's no doubt that, that's in there. The way I think about it is that, over the course of the year, I always say this, weather evens out. So to your comments about regionality with Q3 to Q4, my recollection is that Q3 regionality was 300 basis points. This Q4 was probably closer 100 basis points. Unfortunately, this is probably the last time we'll be able to talk about it because the NPD data related to that is going away. We see a high value in that. Others see it differently. So we're done. I think this is the last time we'll be able to talk about that. Christopher Horvers - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: That's very funny. And then as you think about -- surprise. As you think about the DIY acceleration and what happened with traffic and ticket, was the acceleration mainly a function of your ability to pass price through that you were holding back on in prior quarters that you mentioned? And was there any relationship between that and the gross margin trend looking better sequentially?

Kevin P. Freeland

Analyst

Yes. This is Kevin. We've had a similar approach to pricing, both on the DIY and the Commercial side, that we built in the first few years that we came together as a team. It's a very simple concept, which is we benchmark our prices at a very detailed level, DIY versus Commercial, right down to the street address. And it is critical that we remain competitive, and that hasn't changed for years. That all said, there are certain items in the assortment that appear inelastic. And those are areas that we look for margin enhancement. But as we go into a head-to-head, what are the key categories, customers that are price shopping, what are they discovering, our analytics would suggest that we've been quite competitive for the last several years and maintained that way through last year. Now one of the elements is we get a certain level of price inflation and deflation at the landed cost level, predominantly driven by commodities. Oil would be an example. It has changed dramatically in the years we've been together as a team. Steel would be to a lesser extent. Those reflect in our gross margin based on our accounting practices faster than they do with some of our key competitors. So the price that the customer sees has remained competitive and consistent. How that actually flows through and impacts different people in our channel is -- so to Darren's point, weather kind of evens out over the year, and so does pricing. But it negatively affected us on the front half of the year. And at this stage, we don't see any material movements in the moment that would be noteworthy to report in terms of an outlook.

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

Yes. The other small thing, to build on Kevin's point, Chris, in the fourth quarter, we did have a weather benefit. And what I mean by that is you could change your oil. And so when I look at the mix now -- the other side of that is we didn't sell as much anti-freeze and some of the chemicals for cold weather. You could change your brakes. So when you peer into what was occurring is that mix certainly played a role in terms of the DIY improvement. But I don't want to underestimate or undersell or underappreciate the team's execution. I've felt, in my 4 years, exiting this year and entering next year, that focus on execution. We say running the business with excellence and what our field teams are doing, I must say, it's at an all-time high. It really is in terms of their focus around our oil business, brakes, batteries, the key front room categories. And that played a huge role in it because when I look at the absolute comparisons, as you pointed out, the DIY comparison in our fourth quarter was about as tough as we've had all year. And so it's not just luck or circumstance. They've done a nice job actually bringing it all into the fourth quarter. Christopher Horvers - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: So if I were just going to summarize that, that response, it sounded like, yes, it helped gross margin sequentially but it wasn't as if the acceleration in DIY was solely price-driven ticket increase?

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

No. I think some of your peers would tell you that our pricing was below others in the fourth quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Dan Wewer with Raymond James. Daniel R. Wewer - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: So Darren, on your guidance of low- to mid-single digits, for the 5% scenario to possibly come into play, what would have to change? Would it be a pickup in Do-It-Yourself growth? Or could you achieve that 4% or 5% comp sales gain even if Do-It-Yourself remain flattish?

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

Yes, well, I'll start one level above that, Dan, because that is a relatively wide range. And I'd say, what's underneath that is that -- I don't know where gas prices are going to go this year. Is that -- if we have stability throughout the year in gas prices, and depending on whose projections you read, it could go to darn near $5 at some places. Other people will tell you, you know what, we'll probably stay somewhere around $4.50. So I think about the overall cloud that's out there is understanding where overall gas prices will go. I think we saw that lessen this year. Miles driven tend to have a lesser effect this year as we look at failure and maintenance. Below that, between -- so that, overall, that has a disproportionate effect on our DIY business. I think as we -- and I think DIY, whether we do 5 or above or 1 or below, it's 2/3 of our business. So your instincts are right, is that the stronger we finish on DIY historically, the stronger we finish on that comp. What do I look at is store execution. And externally, what am I looking at? I'm looking at gas prices. And I'm looking, to a lesser extent, at miles driven to actually think about where we'll finish in that range. Daniel R. Wewer - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: Do you think that, given you've reduced the amount of selling space to the front end of the store and you've taken out some of the Do-It-Yourself-oriented inventory, that, that type of ramp in Do-It-Yourself is possible even if gasoline prices were to stay flat or drop?

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

Yes. I have Charles with me. Charles, year-over-year, there's not a material difference you see in what we have in terms of consumer and in terms of DIY?

Charles E. Tyson

Analyst

No. I mean -- when we came together as a team, early on, we went in and looked at rationalization in our assortments and took what was unproductive and took about 18 months to take that out. But on a year-on-year sequential basis, we've expanded our assortments from better utilization of the back room space and put more inventory into our parts business to actually build our capability to serve the DIY customer, not at the expense of taking away from the front room categories that they expect us to carry. Daniel R. Wewer - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: And Mike, just one real quick question for you. Can you tell us why the company did not buy back any shares during the fourth quarter?

Michael A. Norona

Analyst

I think we answered it previously. We bought back 12% of the company, and we're pleased by that. And then we... Daniel R. Wewer - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: But that was to end that -- that ended the fourth quarter?

Michael A. Norona

Analyst

Yes, that's what I mean. I mean, we look at it over the year. I think in the fourth quarter, we did some other things around our capital structure. We were planning for a bond offering. We were focused on executing our business. There's also certain blackout periods that we hit. It's a longer period of time that we run into a little bit. But we're pleased. There was no -- I wouldn't read anything into it of why we didn't buy back shares.

Operator

Operator

Our final question today comes from Scot Ciccarelli with RBC Capital Markets.

Scot Ciccarelli - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

I know you guys have touched on this but, obviously, SG&A has been a pretty big swing factor for the last couple of quarters. And Mike, I know you tried to highlight a couple of items. But it looks like the change that you're looking for in SG&A per store is pretty sizable. I mean, we've had down 3% to 5% by my calculations the last couple of quarters. Now we're expecting positive low-single digits. Can you talk about what you mean in terms of normalization of compensation? And then just the sequencing. I think, Darren, you actually referenced this a little bit. Should we -- in terms of some of your expenses. Should we actually expect flat to down SG&A dollars in the first quarter, followed by sizable increases in the balance of the year? So 2 questions there.

Michael A. Norona

Analyst

Yes, so Scot, great question. So first of all, the kind of the pockets that we've been taking costs from are really 3 fold. And we started the work in 2010, and we really saw it happen in 2011, where we're seeing better productivity in areas like our labor. So we're leveraging labor. We're spending more -- we're spending the same dollars, a little bit more actual dollars, but we're getting more leverage around those labors, around efficiencies and some of the excellence that Darren talked about. Our commercial programs, our commercial productivity on our commercial sales per program is up 45%. So I think the number is $637,000 per program. And back 3 or 4 years ago, it was closer to $430,000. So we're seeing productivity. We're also seeing reduced variability across our chain in terms of our performance. We're trying to variable-ize some of our fixed costs. And then we're also taking out cost furthest away from the customer, some of our discretionary, our occupancy and areas like that. The way to think about it is this. Where we started -- we were starting from a high SG&A rate. And I think -- I'm really pleased by the team's progress of pulling costs out and better leverage. But the other thing you saw last year is our incentive compensation. That played a pretty big role in terms of our leverage last year because what happened is we pay on growth. We have a very competitive program. We share a material more amount of our dollars and our success with our Team Members. And just last year, when you do a 2.2% comp versus an 8% comp, the incentive compensation, so that created a little bit of some of the SG&A we picked up last year. Also, and I…

Scot Ciccarelli - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then in terms of the cadence, should we actually think about kind of flattish dollars in the first quarter followed by sizable increases in the back?

Darren R. Jackson

Analyst

Scot, I think you're on track. Think about, we began the process really aggressively in the second quarter of last year. We're going to anniversary a lot of that work. And you know how expenses work. We'll anniversary them through the first quarter of this year. As Mike said, we'll have some unique things. We're moving a managers' meeting that -- those aren't hundreds of thousands of dollars, those are millions of dollars that go from Q1 to Q2. We've spread out the investments. We still have investments in Q1, but we're trying to, as I said earlier, even those out throughout the year so the team can absorb them. We're upping our store count this year. That'll add a little bit more to our expense in terms of the flow, principally in the back half of the year. And that's what we tried to clearly articulate in our prepared comments as well.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I will now turn the call back to Joshua Moore for any final comments.

Joshua Moore

Analyst

Thank you, Wendy. And thanks to our audience who participated in our fourth quarter earnings conference call. If you have any additional questions, please call me at (952) 715-5076. Reporters, please contact Shelly Whitaker at (540) 561-8452. And that concludes our call. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That concludes our call today. You may now disconnect. Thank you for joining us.