Earnings Labs

AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (AB)

Q3 2010 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 28, 2010

$38.44

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the AllianceBernstein third quarter 2010 earnings review. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the formal remarks, there will be question-and-answer session and I will give you instructions on how to ask questions at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and will be replayed for one week. I would now like to turn the conference over to the host for this call, Acting Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Avi Sharon. Please go ahead.

Avi Sharon

Management

Good morning everyone and welcome to our third quarter 2010 earnings review. As a reminder, this conference call is being webcast and is supported by a slide presentation that can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website at www.alliancebernstein.com\investorrelations. Here in New York, we have our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Peter Kraus; and our Chief Financial Officer, John Howard. Joining us from our London offices is our Chief Operating Officer David Steyn. I would like to take this opportunity to note that some of the information we present today is forward-looking in nature and is subject to certain SEC rules and regulations regarding disclosure. Our cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements can be found on page 2 of our presentation as well as in the MD&A of our 2009 10K and third quarter 2010 10-Q, which we filed earlier this morning. In light of the SEC’s Regulation FD, management may only address inquiries that are material in nature from the investment community in a public forum. Therefore, we encourage you to ask all such questions on this call. Now I’ll turn the call over to Peter.

Peter Kraus

Management

Thank you, Avi. Good morning everyone in New York, and those of you overseas, good afternoon and good evening. Our third quarter AUM was up 6% over the last quarter, $484 billion versus $458 billion. Net flows however were off this quarter. Outflows increased $14 billion over our Q2 flows. Equity performance in the second quarter, I’m sure you noticed was poor. That very likely had an impact on the net flows of the third quarter. However, our equity performance in the third quarter was substantially better than that of the second on both a peer and relative to benchmark basis. We think this improved performance should help improve our net flows over time. A year ago as we discussed, our objective is to expand our fixed income services and further tailor our investment services to meet our clients’ needs. We are delivering on those goals. Fixed income is a growing franchise for us. Our performance has been excellent both in the quarter and in the long term. Net flows for the nine months were over $10 billion. Dynamic Asset Allocation or DAA, as we call it, has been a focus for us this year. We rolled out this service in April, and already, over 50% of our private clients have signed on. DAA has delivered as promised, moderating risk in the portfolios of clients, providing incremental return, and creating a better overall experience. With regards to target date and defined contribution, our efforts generally remain on track. We view ourselves as one of the more innovative, holistic providers of solutions to the retirement dilemma in the United States and globally. In keeping with this philosophy, we’ve recently introduced two new services: customized retirement service and multi-manager retirement strategies. Both are important new arrows in our quiver. This is a scalable business as all of you know and one of the major long-term growth engines for the firm. As we’ve discussed in the past, our growing alternative platform is important to us. In particular, we talked about the fund of funds business as being a focus. This quarter we actually acquired a fund of funds business from SunAmerica, about which we’re very excited. David Steyn will discuss this in greater detail. Also, I’m sure our investors have noticed that we liquidated the TAP program this year for very attractive returns, and we continue to be very successful in our PPIP partnership with the U.S. government. We can also continue to build our offerings in real estate and in energy and look forward to future opportunities in both of those places. Performance continues to be our number one focus for our clients. Delivering alpha is our job. We believe our skills in security selection will provide attractive returns and will be consistent with those we delivered over time. We’re comfortable with our strategy. Our task in the future is to execute. David, over to you.

David Steyn

Management

Thank you Peter, and perhaps I can start where you’ve left off with saying a few words on alternatives. We’ve made it clear over the past year and year and a half that we see the developments of a broad capability in alternative as being critical both to our private client business and to our institutional business, and in times to come, even to our retail business. How we’ve broadened that array is a work in progress. We’ve been broadening it out with our in-house liquid hedge fund capabilities, where we are building or have built capabilities of our value, our growth, our fixed income platforms. Peter alluded to the work we’ve done post government initiatives in PIPP and TAP. We’ve talked in previous quarters about what we’re doing in real estates. We’ve announced recently that we’re building up an entity capability. One key component in the alternative platform we need for both our institutional and our private client business is the fund of funds piece of the jigsaw which we announced in 1st of October we were acquiring with the acquisition of Mark Gamson and his team from SunAmerica. This business comes with about $8 billion fund of hedge funds and fund of private equity funds. I should make it clear that the legacy business we have acquired from SunAmerica is really sub-advisory in character, and revenues will not be material at least in the short term, and John will talk further about this. But what this business does allow us to do is to use it a spring board in the creation of, in first instance, two new fund-to-fund capabilities, one liquid, and one illiquid/private equity. The liquid one we hope to roll out in the first instance to our private client channel in Q1 of 2011, later…

John Howard

Management

Thanks David. Good morning everyone. I’ll start with a high level recap of the third quarter results that we reported yesterday afternoon. Adjusted earnings per unit were $0.36 this quarter, down from $0.37 in the second quarter. Adjusted revenues were down 2% as lower based fees and lower research revenues were partially offset by investment gains. Our adjusted operating margins declined by a little over 1% sequentially to 19.3%. We had a lower effective tax rate this quarter. The estimated effective tax rate for full year 2010 is about 9.3%, down 1% from the 10.3% estimate at the end of Q2. We recorded a $90 million real estate charge in Q3, as we discussed on last quarter’s conference call, we initiated a comprehensive review of our firm’s real estate footprints within New York City area. After this review, we decided to sublease over 300,000 square feet of our office base in midtown Manhattan. This will largely consolidate our New York based employees in our main headquarter building in our facility in White Plains, New York and we reduced our leased office space in New York City by 20%. The charge is based on our estimate of when we can sublease the space and the current market rental rate. We’ll save about $4 million in Q4 and going forward, we project savings of $21 million in 2011 and $23 million each year after that. Based on our current number of units outstanding the EPU benefit will be $0.07 next year and $0.08 in subsequent years. Including this real estate charge our GAAP EPU for the third quarter with $0.12 versus $0.31 in Q2. Excluding the charge our third quarter GAAP EPU would have risen to $0.44. Let me give you a quick recap on our buyback. We repurchased 1.9 million units…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Michael Kim of Sandler O’Neill. Michael Kim – Sandler O’Neill: Hey guys, good morning. First, can you just give us an update on what you’re seeing in terms of institutional asset allocations? It seems like pension plans maybe continue to favor fixed income strategies even though they remain probably [ph] underfunded. So, would be curious to see if you see the strength continuing and if so, how could this impact the economics of the business in the institutional channel?

David Steyn

Management

That’s an intriguing question. I was in the States last week and I saw a statistic which suggested that the average U.S. defined benefit corporate pension scheme has the lowest allocation to domestic large cap equities today or domestic equities since the modern DB pension scheme system emerged. Now, I’m digging a little bit further to find out just how valid that number is. But the direction of that number, we believe to be totally valid. We continue to see an asset allocation shift on a global basis, out of equities into fixed income and into alternatives which is one of the reasons why we started this presentation today, talking about our initiatives and alternatives. Within the equity allocation as we’ve touched on in previous calls, we’re seeing a shift out of domestic equities and into global and within domestic equities out of active and into passive. I think it’s very dangerous in this business to talk a secular shift but this one certainly has a problem to be a longstanding shift. As I think we’ve talked about in previous calls, the shift actually goes back further to the events of 2007 and 2008 and the move out of equities and into fixed income by defined benefit schemes. So it’s really been underway now for five or six years. We don’t see anything stopping it right now. Now, having said which, I would add two caveats to that. The public sector is not moving in that direction and if anything seems to be hopefully re-risking or I wouldn’t say hopefully re-risking but it certainly re-risking. And then, secondly, there are already a large number of sophisticated institutions worldwide who have seen this as an opportunity to re-risk themselves too. So behind that statistic, does not lie one homogenous market. Michael Kim – Sandler O’Neill: Okay, that’s helpful. And then, the second question, assuming the broader markets continue to rally, would you expect your equity strategies to increasingly outperform which is I think what we’re seeing in prior cycles?

Peter Kraus

Management

We do think that that will be the case, Michael. David mentioned our portfolios in the value side are filled with cash rich, high yielding low price companies and on the growth side as David commented, premium franchise that are trading at the modest premium and in some instances, discounts. We’ve actually seen when risk has come back into the market these portfolios outperform. They did that in September and they continue to do that in October. We’re confident that that sort of disciplined fundamental approach that we’ve always taken will be rewarded over time and that makes us feel good about the performance we’ve had recently and what we expect we will receive for our clients in the future.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Craig Siegenthaler of Credit Suisse. Craig Siegenthaler – Credit Suisse: Good morning, everyone. When you were going back through slide 6, you mentioned that there was a kind of one large mandate termination from a kind of a low-fee paying mandate, some advisory account. Does that fit into the fixed income non-U.S. redemption bucket on slide 26?

David Steyn

Management

Yes, indeed it does. There was one significant retail very short duration account termination, and actually there’s also one reasonably significant, again, very short duration, institutional fixed income account termination during this period, but you are right in your assumption. Craig Siegenthaler – Credit Suisse: Can you help us on the size of that mandate, and also, was there anything of size showing up in the growth equity and value equity buckets inside the U.S., because those two redemption levels were also quite elevated?

David Steyn

Management

I think I’m (inaudible) to going to detail on size. I would just say it was a very low fee account. Craig Siegenthaler – Credit Suisse: And was there anything of size in the equity side of things institutionally?

David Steyn

Management

We publicly announced the termination of a large sub-advisory equity account in September. Craig Siegenthaler – Credit Suisse: And what was the size of that, just to recall?

Peter Kraus

Management

I think the thing David’s referring to is Vanguard. We continue to have a very strong relationship with Vanguard, but they did terminate one portion of the service with us and that’s in those numbers. The Vanguard Group and AllianceBernstein continue to have a long and strong sub-advisory relationship, we’ve got a number of assets in their funds and that continues to be an expanding relationship for us.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Cynthia Meyer of Bank of America Security. Cynthia Mayer – Bank of America Securities: Hi, just following up on some of the larger pieces that went out. Is there anything remaining on those to go out in 4Q? And it sounds like you’re more optimistic on flows. Is that stemming from the better performance or are you actually seeing improved trends this quarter?

Peter Kraus

Management

Cynthia, as we mentioned, we think that the performance in the second quarter was impactful on our flows in the third quarter, and similarly we think the strong peer performance in Q3 and the much better relative performance against the benchmark that we had in Q2 will have a positive effect on flows in the future. And we’re continuing to see that performance rally strongly in October. So, that’s how we sort of feel about where flows are going to go. We have seen, as David mentioned, an increase in the pipeline. That pipeline number has steadily increased over the last 12 months and that also suggests traction with our clients in various parts of the world. And I think as you asked the question, if it was in the last call, it might have been in two calls ago, how can we get people to see more of the strong performance we have in fixed income and how do we build that over time. That was the reason for my comment at the front end of the call which we had been focused on fixed income, we have been able to show our clients that actually superlative performance that we’ve been able to produce over the last two years, and that has evidenced itself in net flows this year and we expect that to continue. Cynthia Mayer – Bank of America Securities: Okay. And then maybe in the private client channel, apart from the flows, can you talk a little about what sorts of trends you’re seeing in terms of numbers accounts, opening versus closing, and in terms of size of accounts and what sorts of accounts are signing up for the more muted defensive strategy you have?

David Steyn

Management

Cynthia, I’m very happy to try to answer that question. As we said in previous calls, the pattern we are seeing in the private client channel at this stage of the recovery from the events of ‘07, ‘08, is almost exactly in line with our experience at previous stages of the cycle in terms of the number of relationships. If there are two differences, it is in the size of the average account which is signing up, one, and secondly in the exposure to risk assets of a client who is signing up. So, our sense is that your typical private client is inching back into the market but keeping some of his or her powder dry in the bank; thus smaller average balances, but very, very significant sums of money waiting in the wings. Then on the second question, as to where the typical or the average private client is investing, we continue to see an inching up of exposure to equities in new flows into the firm. It’s meaningful, it’s all in the right direction, but it is still a business where many, many private clients are extremely nervous, but it is moving in the right direction at this time. Cynthia Mayer – Bank of America Securities: Thank you.

David Steyn

Management

I might add that within our own dynamic asset allocation service, we have moved towards an overweight position in equities.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Marc Irizarry of Goldman Sachs. Marc Irizarry – Goldman Sachs: Great, thanks. Just following up on the dynamic asset allocation, when you think about the total private clients portfolio and then the sort of closed architecture and your products suite, Peter, maybe you can comment on, as the dynamic asset allocation opportunity grows, is there any sort of expand the product and the sort of reach in the private clients business?

Peter Kraus

Management

Thanks Marc. Well, one of the really significant values to the acquisition we made at SunAmerica is that it does provide open architecture on the fund of funds side. And we think that that’s extremely important to the private client business. We continue to be committed to – on the long only side, meaning the equity business and the fund business to the services that we provide which are multi-faceted, multi-dimensional, multi-geographic, and so therefore provide (inaudible) diversity to our client base. The dynamic asset allocation activity is we think also unique. We think we are one of the few firms who actually are providing a consistent application of our views on risk and opportunities within markets across our private client business. As David mentioned, the allocation to equity is now at a 60-40 level, if you took that as a standard of portfolio for a moment, of course, not portfolios of that is higher than that standard allocation of equity to 60%. And as I mentioned in the outset, the actual moderated risk in the portfolio and the improved performance that’s come from that has benefitted our private clients since they have adopted that activity in April. So we think what we’re providing clients is a more robust set of services in the form of the alternatives including open architecture and a way to moderate risk in volatile time periods but produce a smoother ride and better performance over time.

David Steyn

Management

If I might add to what Peter just said, we could have approached anyone of a number of fund of funds businesses around the world in order to gain access to fund of funds capability. But one of the appeals of this particular team was our desire to have our proprietary fund of funds capability upon which we could build a set of solutions tailor-made for our private client business. So that was a great appeal of Mark Gamson and his team. That was in a sense opened up to other managers, we could do it in a manner where we were able to influence that type of platform to mesh in with the holistic approach to investment management we offer all of our private clients today. The second comment I make is we don’t see dynamic asset allocation is being limited to the private client channel. As we said on the previous call, we entered into our first sub-advisory relationship. We have two further sub-advisory relationships under discussion at this time. So in time to come, we see dynamic asset allocation is having a much broader capability.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Cynthia Mayer of Bank of America Securities. Cynthia Mayer – Bank of America Securities: Hi. Just some modeling questions. In terms of comp, are you expecting to maintain the 49.8% ratio and is there any year end true up we should think about?

John Howard

Management

Cynthia, it’s John. We are 49.8% in the second quarter and the third quarter; year-to-date, we are at 49.4%. So I’d say for Q4, it’s pretty safe that that number will be in between 49.4% to 49.8% based on what we see today. Cynthia Mayer – Bank of America Securities: And what’s your outlook for the tax rate in next year? Is it also 9%?

John Howard

Management

Yes, I’d stick with 9.25%.

Operator

Operator

We’ve reached the conclusion of the Q&A session of today’s conference call. I will now turn the floor back over to Avi Sharon for any closing remarks.

Avi Sharon

Management

Great. Thank you everyone for participating on our conference call today. Please feel free to contact investor relations with any further questions. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes your conference call. You may now disconnect. Thank you for your participation.