Earnings Labs

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)

Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Fri, May 1, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the AbbVie First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be able to listen-only until the question-and-answer portion. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to introduce Ms. Liz Shea, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Liz Shea

Analyst

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Also, on the call with me today are Rick Gonzalez, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Severino, Vice Chairman and President; and Rob Michael, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Joining us for the Q&A portion of the call is Laura Schumacher, Vice Chairman External Affairs, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary. Before we get started, I'll remind you that some statements we make today may be considered forward-looking statements for the purposes of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. AbbVie cautions that these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on AbbVie's operations, results and financial results that may cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements. Additional information about these risks and uncertainties is included in our 2019 Annual Report and Form 10-K and in our other SEC filings. AbbVie undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements except as required by law. On today's conference call as in the past, non-GAAP financial measures will be used to help investors understand AbbVie's ongoing business performance. These non-GAAP financial measures are reconciled with comparable GAAP financial measures in our earnings release and regulatory filings from today, which can be found on our website. Following our prepared remarks we'll take your questions. So with that I'll now turn the call over to Rick.

Rick Gonzalez

Analyst

Thank you, Liz. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us. I'd like to start my remarks by acknowledging the tragic nature of the COVID-19 crisis, which has touched all elements of our -- in our lives in ways we never thought possible. The human toll that this pandemic has inflicted is unprecedented and the suffering unimaginable. During this very challenging time, I want to assure you that across AbbVie we are working carefully to ensure that our business continues to operate properly, our employees remain safe, our patients continue to receive their medicines and we are providing aid including product donations and financial assistance to address some of the critical needs of health care systems and underserved communities across the globe. As a matter of priority, we continue to closely manage manufacturing and supply chain resources around the world to ensure that our patients receive an uninterrupted supply of their medicines. Our manufacturing sites remain operational. And we have implemented additional measures at these facilities to ensure the safety of our employees and to protect our supply of API and finish medicines. We have adequate supplies in inventory to meet the expected demand for all AbbVie key medicines including KALETRA and NIMBEX, two therapies that have experienced a significant increase in demand directly related to COVID patient treatment. And we currently do not anticipate any product supply issues. AbbVie is also committed to supporting clinical research efforts for COVID-19. We have provided product donations to many health authorities and institutions globally so that AbbVie products may be further evaluated externally as potential treatments for this difficult disease. In times of crisis, it is our nature as individuals and our culture as a company to give back in any way we can. We recently announced that AbbVie has donated…

Michael Severino

Analyst

Thank you, Rick. Let me begin by echoing Rick's sentiment about how proud I am of our colleagues as our teams work to ensure our business continues with minimal disruption and our patients receive their essential medicines. The entire organization including our colleagues deemed on-site essential who continue to come into work every day and the individuals who have effectively adapted to working remotely have demonstrated resiliency, dedication, and compassion throughout this time of crisis. It's a testament to the culture we've built at AbbVie. Today, I'll focus my commentary on the ongoing efforts within AbbVie's R&D organization, to address COVID-19, and provide updates regarding our key development programs. As a leading global biopharmaceutical company, AbbVie is committed to supporting relief efforts for the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to the efforts highlighted by Rick, we have deployed our scientific and medical resources to help fight COVID-19 on several fronts. There is an urgent need to increase testing capacity within the United States. Public health authorities are actively working to address the issues that have limited capacity to-date including instrument availability, availability of diagnostic kits and reagents, and CLIA-certified lab capacity. Given the unprecedented nature of this pandemic and the need to significantly increase access to testing, AbbVie is working with health authorities here in Illinois, where we are headquartered and in Ludwigshafen in Germany, where we operate a major site, to create a clinical COVID testing capability. This will allow us to use our laboratory expertise to expand the COVID-19 testing capacity in both jurisdictions. We have also used our GMP capabilities to manufacture viral transport medium, which is necessary to preserve swabs prior to lab testing for the Illinois Department of Health and a number of academic medical centers. Like many companies in our industry, we recognize the extreme…

Rob Michael

Analyst

Thank you, Mike. Starting with our first quarter results, we delivered strong top and bottom line performance. Total net revenues were $8.6 billion, up 10.7% on an operational basis, excluding a 0.6% unfavorable impact from foreign exchange. These results include approximately $190 million of inventory stocking related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.42, reflecting growth of 13.1% compared to prior year and above our guidance midpoint by $0.13, including $0.04 from underlying business strength and $0.09 related to COVID-19 inventory stocking. Several key products contributed to growth in the first quarter. U.S. HUMIRA sales were $3.7 billion, up 13.7% compared to prior year, reflecting double-digit volume growth plus price. These results include approximately $65 million of COVID-19 inventory stocking. Internationally, HUMIRA sales were $1 billion, down 12.8% operationally, reflecting biosimilar competition across Europe and other international markets and ahead of our expectations. These results include approximately $35 million of COVID-19 inventory stocking. SKYRIZI is performing extremely well and above our expectations. Global sales were $300 million with U.S. in-market -- in-play market share now exceeding 30%. We also continue to see robust demand for RINVOQ with sales of $86 million in the quarter. Hematologic oncology global sales were more than $1.5 billion, up 32.3% on an operational basis, driven by continued strong performance of both IMBRUVICA and VENCLEXTA. IMBRUVICA global net revenues were $1.2 billion, up 20.6% driven by strong share in all lines of therapy in CLL. These results include approximately $45 million of COVID-19 inventory stocking. VENCLEXTA revenues were $317 million, driven by continued share gains across all approved indications. Global HCV sales were $564 million, down 30.2% on an operational basis, driven by lower treated patient volumes in select international markets and increased competition within the U.S. Managed Medicaid segment. We…

Liz Shea

Analyst

Thanks Rob. We will now open the call for questions. Operator, first question please.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question today is from Vamil Divan from Mizuho.

Vamil Divan

Analyst

Great. Thanks so much for taking the questions and all the color that you've provided in your comments. And maybe just a couple if I could. One, you talked about the Allergan deal and obviously some of the assumptions there. I'm just thinking big picture -- and I guess this is for Rick just in terms of your -- kind of where you see the value of that deal. I know you -- obviously some of the assumptions in the near-term have changed and you mentioned the esthetics impact is probably more transient. But just to confirm for investors, do you see any changes over the longer term value of this transaction? We're obviously getting a lot of questions just given the nature of the esthetics business right now. And then second one on the dividend. You mentioned, obviously, your support for a strong and growing dividend. Is there also just any change as to how you think about dividend growth going forward given the current environment? Obviously you've still been growing but is there maybe growing at a lower rate, or any change at all there just – it would be great to clarify. Thanks again.

Rick Gonzalez

Analyst

Vamil this is Rick. I mean, I'll take those two questions. Let me do the second one, because it will be shorter first. So we don't see any changes in the assumptions we're making from the standpoint of the growth of the dividend based on everything that we have analyzed and I would say the robust performance of our business going into the COVID crisis and how we view the COVID crisis being a transient situation that, although difficult to predict exactly when all the geographies will reach some level of normalcy, we know that will occur at some point. And so we don't view any significant change there. On the value of the Allergan transaction, I would tell you that we don't see any change, fundamental change in the long-term value of the transaction. The benefits that we were trying to derive by acquiring the Allergan business are the same. And the long-term valuation I believe is the same. Now I think what some of the investors are probably concerned about is, obviously, the esthetics business is an important franchise as I indicated before represents about one-third of the revenues and about one-third of the profits. And it's an attractive franchise. And so I think the question that investors have, is how is it going to recover? And how long will it take to recover? And I think look those are reasonable questions. And as you can probably imagine, we have been doing a tremendous amount of work to try to evaluate not only the impact of COVID on our business, but also the impact of COVID on the Allergan business. And specifically I'd say, we've spent a considerable amount of time looking at the esthetics business. So I'm going to take a couple of minutes here and walk…

Liz Shea

Analyst

Thanks Vamil. Operator, next question please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Geoffrey Porges from SVB Leerink.

Geoffrey Porges

Analyst

Thank you very much for taking the question. First, there are a number of things that are obviously affecting the environment right now Rick and I just want to ask about SKYRIZI and RINVOQ. You've previously given some longer-term aspirational revenue targets. I'm just wondering how you'd feel about those targets. Now we've seen a few quarters for each product. And also I understand you're going to have a little bit of COVID disruption. And then could you just talk a little bit more -- I think that's very helpful coverage of the plastic surgeon context. Can you just talk a little bit more about the other specialties and products where you're expecting impairment in Q2 and how quickly they could bounce back? Thank you.

Rick Gonzalez

Analyst

Yes. So fundamentally I would tell you we don't have any change in the long-term forecast for SKYRIZI and RINVOQ. I think one of the things that's impressive when we look at both SKYRIZI and RINVOQ is both the speed and acceleration of the ramp that we're seeing in the share capture of these assets. So let me give you a perspective on it. If you look at SKYRIZI as an example SKYRIZI within about three months achieved the number one position in psoriasis in-play psoriasis share. And then the rate of capture has actually accelerated from there. It achieved it at about 20%. If you look at the January data which is the most recent independent data that we have we have internal data that we also use to project. But the January data showed that it's at 31% and the slope of that line is accelerating and accelerating at a pretty good clip. And it is widening the range between it and the number 2 player in a significant way. And so this thing has tremendous momentum. Yes obviously the COVID crisis has created a disruption. As I mentioned in my comments if a dermatology office is closed obviously they're not prescribing anything including SKYRIZI. But that's a temporary phenomenon and we'll see these offices start to open back up. And I have no reason to believe that that momentum won't come back as patients feel comfortable to go back into their offices. RINVOQ obviously launched -- SKYRIZI launched in April and RINVOQ launched in August. So it launched later. But I'd say we've also seen on RINVOQ now a similar acceleration of its capture rate of share in -- in-play share in RA. And it too is accelerating going into this. It's about 11.3% on the last…

Liz Shea

Analyst

Thank you. Next question please, operator.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Steve Scala from Cowen.

Steve Scala

Analyst

Thank you. I have a couple of questions. But first congratulations on a very strong quarter under very difficult conditions. So the first question is even pre-pandemic AbbVie seem to have embraced digital marketing. I think the company previously said that pre-pandemic 40% of commercial activities were already virtual. What does AbbVie do differently than peers? And does this expertise explain in part the strength of SKYRIZI and RINVOQ in the first quarter? And then the second question is just a housekeeping question. Just curious do you expect that Allergan will publicly report its first quarter? Thank you.

Rick Gonzalez

Analyst

I mean on the digital marketing, I mean obviously we have a significant expertise in that area. And I honestly can't tell you how differentiated that is versus other competitors because I think many companies like our have gone to a significant portion of their commercial messagings through digital marketing. I mean, I think we're very effective at it. I don't think that is what's driving the RINVOQ SKYRIZI performance. I think what's driving it is really, two fundamental things. One is obviously these assets have very strong clinical profiles. They fit a need in the market an unmet need that's in the market that was consistent with what we originally assumed when we were trying to develop replacements for HUMIRA. And I think we're all extremely pleased that these assets are doing a very good job of demonstrating superiority to the gold standard HUMIRA. The second thing is I think obviously, this is a market we know how to execute in at a very high level. We have a tremendous level of experience in this market, a tremendous reputation in this market. And I think our commercial organization executes at a very high level in this market. I think that's what's driving the performance and it makes me feel good about what the future looks like for these assets. As far as Allergan is concerned, I don't know if they're going to -- well think of it with this way. I don't think I should comment on when they're going to publicly report their first quarter results. I think that's something they should probably respond to not us.

Steve Scala

Analyst

Thank you.

Liz Shea

Analyst

Thanks, Steve. Operator, next question please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Navin Jacob from UBS.

Navin Jacob

Analyst

Hi. Navin from UBS. Thanks for taking the question. So I heard the $1.4 billion for SKYRIZI an upgrade versus the $1.2 billion. Just wondering if you had an update on RINVOQ as well. I think you had said $500 million for the full year. Maybe I missed it, but just wondering if you could provide an update on that guidance as well. And then with regards to the slight lowering of the full year HUMIRA guidance, wondering if there's any color on what's driving that, obviously COVID-19 impacting things. But is it because of -- any color as to whether it's COVID-19 specifically or if it's increased in gross to net or if it's an increase in the switching to SKYRIZI and RINVOQ? Any of that would be helpful. Thank you so much.

Rick Gonzalez

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. So let me talk about it at a little higher level and I'm going to hand it over to Rob to give you more specifics. I think the way to think about this is we came into this first quarter. If you look at our first quarter performance had COVID not happen, we would have been sitting here contemplating how we raised guidance. But because of the uncertainty of what's going to happen in the second quarter, we obviously had to make an assessment of what we thought that impact would be. And that's why I outlined what those assumptions are. So you can think about it this way. We're essentially assuming the business is overperforming and the data clearly supports the business is overperforming. We're going to have somewhat of a negative impact in the second quarter that we're basically saying, we can overcome. And we had to estimate where that would occur. We're raising SKYRIZI, because the momentum is such that even with some caution about second quarter, we know we're going to beat that number. RINVOQ, we feel good about RINVOQ as well, but we don't need to raise that at this point. We need to give it probably another three four months and then we'll make a decision what that looks like. HUMIRA has a very large installed base. And so, I indicated that we are making some adjustments to what we think will happen with channel mix specifically Medicaid. We've worked diligently to try to understand what that looks like. And as you probably know during the 2008, 2009 recession, which is probably the best thing that we had to be able to compare it to, Medicaid went up about two points from 2007 to 2009, two percentage points. So we have factored in some potential shift in HUMIRA and that's primarily what we're reflecting. Rob can give you a little bit more color, but I'd say that's a significant part of what we're trying to reflect there. We also took down MAVYRET. And MAVYRET is two things. One it is COVID-related. Probably about half of it's COVID related there, where HCV internationally is administered through hospitals and they've clearly been disrupted. And we need that disruption to play through before we can get back to the same momentum. In the U.S. though I would say, it's primarily driven by price. That month is still under price pressure and some share pressure. So those are the two most significant ones. Rob?

Rob Michael

Analyst

Yes. Navin, so if you look at the guidance we gave of approximately 7% growth, so that translates in about a $300 million change for U.S. HUMIRA. I'd split it really in the three buckets evenly. So as we think about unemployment, higher PAP volume, Medicaid channel mix each of those say one-third and one-third from those two. And then the remaining one-third would be just lower new patient starts during the stay-at-home period. So that will be most acute in the second quarter. As it relates to SKYRIZI -- and look the momentum from SKYRIZI is very, very strong. And we would have raised it even higher had it not been for the disruption in Q2 on new patient starts. So despite having that disruption on new patient starts, we're still taking the guidance up. We would have taken up higher without that. And I think Rick characterized the HCV change very well.

Liz Shea

Analyst

Thank you, Navin. Operator, next question please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Randall Stanicky from RBC Capital Markets.

Randall Stanicky

Analyst

Great. Thanks guys. Rick focus is going to shift pretty quickly here to pro forma 2021 earnings. You've had more time to prepare for the integration given COVID-19, but can you just talk about does COVID-19 impact those integration plans at all? And then, how are you thinking about the synergies and specifically, how quickly you can realize those $2 billion plus in cost synergies? I know they're third-party verified under Irish law, but at the same time it's -- 90% of that is operating expenses. So the question is why couldn't we see more of that realized early on? Thanks.

Rick Gonzalez

Analyst

Yeah. I think as it relates to pro forma earnings, I mean, once we close the transaction at that point we will evaluate the business again and make a decision at which point we're going to provide pro forma earnings. As far as integration is, concerned I would tell you that, we're not – we have done all the integration work. We're well prepared and have been prepared now for several months to do the final integration. And I don't believe -- we're operating AbbVie at a very high level of effectiveness as we're operating today where a significant number of people are working remotely. I wouldn't say it's the ideal scenario. I'd much prefer we can all get back to operating the way, we did before. But look it's not practical right now. And I don't believe that anything will change the performance of the integration as it relates to COVID. So I'm not overly concerned about that. Synergies, obviously, we have built a synergy plan that we are very comfortable with. And we haven't – I don't believe we've given the gating of that yet right? We have not. Okay. That was Rob shaking his head no because you can't see Rob. So we've obviously gated that. I wouldn't say, we have changed the gating because of COVID one way or another, but we feel good about achieving those synergies. And obviously, everyone that does transactions like ours tries to overachieve their synergies. And we won't be any different than that, but we'll give you an update on what that gating looks like once we've gated the pro forma guidance.

Liz Shea

Analyst

Thanks, Randall. Operator, next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Terence Flynn from Goldman Sachs.

Terence Flynn

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for all the color today. I really appreciate it. Just wondering if – first question is if COVID has impacted the rate of uptake of biosimilars in Europe at all either on the positive side or the negative side. And then for ABBV-3373, I know you mentioned the data is coming out in the near term. Maybe just can you remind us what you're hoping to see here on the efficacy side to advance this into further studies? Thank you.

Rick Gonzalez

Analyst

Yeah. So this is Rick. I'll cover the first one. I may hand it over to Rob to give you a little more specifics, and then Mike will cover the second question. So I probably saw in the quarter, we did better internationally than we had projected initially. And so that is related to a great extent that we have seen less biosimilar conversion than we originally anticipated. It's a little difficult to tell at this point whether or not that is COVID-related. In other words one hypothesis could be and it is nothing, but a hypothesis is that because people are staying at home they can't get converted to biosimilars as rapidly. I think it's not the one that, our area organizations think is happening. It just appears that we're performing better than we had expected. But I think to know that for sure, we'll have to see a little more time play out. But overall, we feel pretty good. And so I'm not giving you a very good answer, because I don't know the answer totally. So I'm giving you the best information that I have available to me. Rob anything you'd add on?

Rob Michael

Analyst

I think if you look at our beat versus guidance it's about approximately $140 million. Keep in mind that, we have about $35 million of COVID-related inventory stocking. We did have some tender timing in Brazil. It's about $30 million. So the balance of that you'd call $75 million of favorability. Could there be some COVID-related impact there? Possibly. If you look, we didn't change our full year guidance even though we have the U.S. dollar strengthening. So that's inherently about a $70 million $75 million operational upside that we've baked in that's offsetting that foreign exchange headwind. So it is going better so far than we expected, which is great but it's hard to pinpoint whether it's COVID-related or not.

Michael Severino

Analyst

This is Mike. I'll take the question on 3373, which is our TNF steroid conjugate. It's in a proof-of-concept study in rheumatoid arthritis. And what we'd like to see there is efficacy that is greater than what can be achieved with currently available agents really across the board, but also with a particular focus on higher levels of response. Obviously, we're going to want to see that with an appropriate safety profile recognizing that a proof-of-concept study is a relatively limited safety database. And importantly, we're going to want to confirm that we can deliver that without impacting the pituitary access as a measure for systemic steroid effects. We have stated in other settings that from the 1b portion of this trial in healthy volunteers, we've shown we can deliver this construct without those steroid effects without impacting the pituitary axis. So we would expect to be able to do the same thing in RA patients in treatment, but we'd want to confirm that obviously.

Liz Shea

Analyst

Thanks, Terence. Operator, next question please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Andrew Baum from Citi.

Andrew Baum

Analyst

Thank you. A question on the long-term impacts of COVID-19. I'm interested in what's the prescription rate for both SKYRIZI and RINVOQ among private practice versus salaried dermatologists or rheumatologists? I guess, what I'm thoughtful about is the extent to which the economic pressures that COVID-19 may force many private practice physicians to become salaried with perhaps more constraints on their prescribing or switch frequency? Many thanks.

Rick Gonzalez

Analyst

Andrew, I would say I don't know the answer to your question to be honest. I can tell you that we don't see a -- today we don't see a significant difference across practices from a behavior standpoint. But future behavior I think that will be a little more difficult to predict. I think most physicians prescribe a medicine that they believe -- in the United States, that they believe is fundamentally the right medicine for that patient. And I would say that the profile of the drug is what tends to drive their prescribing habits more than anything else. So I would say, I would be surprised if there's any difference in the behavior. We'll go back to our commercial group and see if they have any data on it. And if so, we'll provide something back to you.

Liz Shea

Analyst

Thanks, Andrew. Operator next question please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Tim Anderson from Wolfe Research.

Tim Anderson

Analyst

Thank you. A couple of questions please. The first is on business development. And Allergan certainly helps fill the long-term hole from HUMIRA going off patent, but I still view it as M&A is going to be a likely continued part of the story. So my question here is the time frame for AbbVie being actively back in the marketplace to do additional acquisitions, and I'm defining those acquisitions as smaller bolt-ons single-digit billion-dollar types of deals, could that start to happen as soon as the current year in 2020? Second question is on RINVOQ. In atopic derm, you are running a head-to-head study versus DUPIXENT called heads up similar to what Pfizer has done with its JADE COMPARE trial. And I think your results come out in early 2021. The Pfizer results were perceived as being a bit underwhelming. I'm wondering, if you expect RINVOQ results would be any different from Pfizer's? Thank you.

Rick Gonzalez

Analyst

On the BD front, we haven't changed from what we have talked about historically. Our capital allocation strategy is -- support a strong and growing dividend, pay down debt aggressively. And we've allocated approximately $2 billion per year that we can do more bolt-on kinds of transactions. I can tell you that Mike and the BD team have been very actively pursuing what we think fits strategically and doing the work that's necessary to determine, is it an asset that we want to add to our portfolio and where we find those opportunities? And we believe they're a good return for the company. We're aggressively pursuing those. And so I think you will see over the course of time here, you will see us do deals that are consistent with that strategy. And clearly there's a lot of focus on oncology that we have interest, but other areas as well. Mike?

Michael Severino

Analyst

So this is Mike. I'll cover the question on atopic dermatitis. Obviously, we're well aware of the Pfizer data from their program in atopic dermatitis at least at the top-line level that are currently available. And what I would say is we're going to have to look at each of these programs individually, although there are some mechanistic similarities factors such as dose selection ability to cover the relevant pathways are important when you are trying to predict the results that you're likely to see. We feel good about the pharmacodynamic coverage we've been able to drive with RINVOQ really across the board, but particularly in AD. We had very strong Phase 2b results. So we feel that our program will stand on its own merits and we look forward to those head-to-head data as we look forward to all the data from the Phase 3 program in atopic dermatitis.

Tim Anderson

Analyst

Thank you.

Liz Shea

Analyst

Thanks, Tim. Operator, next question please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Carter Gould from Barclays.

Carter Gould

Analyst

Great. Good morning. Congrats on the quarter. A few questions. Rick, I appreciate the color on the Allergan aesthetic business. Maybe just a follow-up. Just trying to understand the sensitivity around your deleveraging forecast to the return of the aesthetics business in line with your assumptions? And I guess also based on your survey work, maybe you read on the rate -- not so much the rate, but like the ultimate return of the med spas and any view on I guess what percentage of those may not return given, I guess there's a view that that's somewhat of a more economically sensitive population relative to the broader BOTOX community. And then apologies if you already commented on this. On the pro forma guide that's going to come is the expectation that will come upon deal closing, or we'll have to wait to 2Q? And then maybe just given all the uncertainty around COVID, your latest thoughts about also providing longer-term guide at that point? Thank you.

Rob Michael

Analyst

Carter this is Rob. I'll take your question on deleveraging. Look, if you think about the amount of cash flow that the combined business generates, it's a tremendous amount of cash flow that we feel very confident in our ability to deliver on our deleveraging commitments. As I mentioned in my remarks, we still expect to pay down $15 billion, $18 billion of debt. We're going to have $7 billion paid down by the end of this month, and we still will be able to support a strong growing dividend. So even as we flex various scenarios, we feel very confident we've reaffirmed those commitments on deleveraging.

Rick Gonzalez

Analyst

As it relates to the med spa question, I would say, across the board, we looked at what kind of assumptions should we make about any consolidation in the industry. And the one thing I would say is, it does appear that these businesses fairly aggressively participated in the U.S. government stimulus programs, the Payroll Protection Programs and the other programs that were available. And so, I think, the data would suggest to us now that that won't be a massive impact. And if there were any consolidation across any of the channels and I don't know that any one channel really stands out in a significant way, we believe that there -- all we'll see is a shift of that capacity to other players, meaning they get bigger. And so, we're not assuming any significant reduction in the supply side of the channel that can't be absorbed through consolidation if necessary. On the pro forma guide, obviously, we're going to wait for the business to close. We're going to do some work on the business and then we'll provide the pro forma guidance after that. So depending upon the timing of when it closes and how close we are in the second quarter it could come on the second quarter call. So we're not really in a position right now where we can give you total clarity on that.

Liz Shea

Analyst

Thanks, Cater. Operator, we have time for one final question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our final question today is from Damien Conover from Morningstar.

Damien Conover

Analyst

Great. Thanks for taking the question. I just want to ask a question on the strength of SKYRIZI and RINVOQ. We're seeing great growth there. And both these drugs have shown excellent data. But I also want to ask, is there any ability to leverage the competitive positioning of HUMIRA here? And I guess I asked that, because I think about the recent launch of the IL-17s, which those competitors used to complain about the strong entrenchment of the TNF class and some of the rebating that was going on there. So I was just wondering, the two growth of, SKYRIZI and RINVOQ, is that really coming from the medicines themselves? So that's question one. And then the second question is, when thinking about the shift back towards normal and sort of the transient impact that we're likely to see from COVID, I wanted to ask about the thoughts around the potential second wave of coronavirus patients as some of the stay-at-home orders lessen up and doctor's office reopen? Is it the view of AbbVie that the second wave won't be that large, or that when the second wave comes we'll have strong treatment options and triaging that we'll be able to get to more business-as-normal operations? Thank you.

Rick Gonzalez

Analyst

Yes. I think, as we look at the strength of SKYRIZI and RINVOQ, it's driven by a couple of factors, right? Particularly, I'd say in the U.S., it's driven by a couple of factors. As I said a few minutes ago, certainly the clinical profile of the drug is first and foremost. The second is, you have to have broad-based managed care access in the United States to be successful. It doesn't matter how you much you convince the physician to use the product based on its clinical profile. If they can't get it reimbursed, they obviously can't prescribe it to their patients. And so that takes a company that has strong expertise in being able to deliver high levels of managed care access, which obviously we can. And then the third is just the effectiveness of your commercial and medical affairs organization. And I think in this area we have one of the best, if not the best. So I think those are the things that really drive it. In our business, you can't really leverage one product against the other specifically. So I don't believe it's a leverage issue. As far as the second wave, I'm going to let Mike cover most of that. The only thing I would say is we have not assumed another major shelter in place order in the fall in our assumptions. So we have assumed that we'll be able to manage through any increase in infections in the way we've built this forecast.

Michael Severino

Analyst

That's correct, Rick. And so, I think it's very hard to make exact predictions about the longer-term nature of the coronavirus infection rates. But what we are assuming, as Rick said is that, there will not be a major second wave in lockdown. And I think the factors that would play into that would be a much greater understanding of surveillance, broader access to testing, the ability to respond much more quickly based on experience. And based on those factors that I just mentioned, if small pockets of new infection do pop up, as well as hopefully the availability of some treatment options, although, I think, treatment options will continue to evolve over some period of time and renewed capacity or relief from the overcapacity status that the healthcare systems are currently operating under. So, I think, it's all of those features together that lead us to the view that supported the assumptions that Rick outlined in our thinking on this.

Liz Shea

Analyst

Thanks, Damien. And that concludes today's conference call. If you'd like to listen to a replay of the call please visit our website at investors.abbvie.com. Thanks again for joining us.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time.