Good morning, and welcome to the Analog Devices Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call, which is being audio webcast via telephone and over the web. I'd like now to introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Michael Lucarelli, Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A. Sir, the floor is yours.

Thank you, Matt, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining our third quarter fiscal 2022 call. With me on the call today are ADI's CEO and Chair, CEO Vincent Roche; and ADI's CFO, Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah. For anyone who missed the release, you can find it and relating financial schedules at investor. analog.com. Now on to the disclosures. The information we're about to discuss includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain Vincent Roche; and ADI's CFO, Prashanth and our periodic reports and other materials filed with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking information as these statements reflect our expectations as of the date of this call. We undertake no obligation to update these statements, except as required by law. Our comments today will also include non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude special items. When comparing our results to our historical performance, special items are also excluded from prior periods. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release. Please note, we've also published our annual ESG report last quarter titled Future Forward. You can find it on the IR web page. And with that, I'll turn the call over to ADI's CEO and Chair, Vince. Vince?

Thank you, Mike, and good morning to you, all. Well, I'm pleased to share that we executed very well amidst a dynamic macro backdrop. We delivered another quarter of record results, driven by continued operational excellence, strong financial discipline and resilient demand for our diverse portfolio of innovation-rich products. Revenue was $3.1 billion, up 24% year-over-year on a combined basis and above the midpoint of our outlook. Strength was broad-based with double-digit growth in every end market. Our third quarter profitability reflects ADI's innovation premium and strong operating leverage with gross and operating margins of 74% and 50%, respectively. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.52 finished at the high end of our outlook, marking another new high. I'm exceptionally pleased with our results, and I want to thank our employees for their continued hard work and dedication to our success, and importantly, to the success of our customers. At ADI, innovation is ingrained in our culture, fueled by an unwavering commitment to robust R&D investments. Over the last 12 months, we've invested over $1. 7 billion in R&D. A key facet to our innovation-driven success is our dedication to extensive and deep customer engagements, which enables us to collaborate with them in solving their toughest problems. Now I'd like to share some recent customer highlights. In automotive, we reinforced our market-leading position in BMS with wins at two premium European auto manufacturers. One of these wins was with our wireless BMS solution. This marks the fourth OEM to adopt wireless BMS as customer interest continues to build for this unique technology. In sustainable energy, we announced a design win with Enel Group on the Quantum Edge device used to digitally monitor electric grids. ADI's unmatched precision measurement capabilities are critical to creating a more resilient and flexible grid to help…

Let me add my welcome to our third quarter earnings call. My comments today, with the exception of revenue, will be on an adjusted basis, which excludes special items outlined in today's press release. Third quarter revenue of $3.1 billion finished above the midpoint of our outlook and marked our sixth consecutive quarterly record. If we look at third quarter end market performance, industrial, our most diverse and profitable end market, hit another all-time high and represented 50% of growth -- excuse me, 50% of revenue. Growth was broad-based with each of our major applications increasing sequentially. Industrial revenue has now grown more than 20% year-over-year for 7 straight quarters, underscoring ADI's strong position and secular content growth across applications. Automotive, which represented 21% of revenue, achieved another record, increasing 28% year-over-year. The better mix of higher-content premium vehicles, combined with our growth engines of BMS, GMSL, A2B and better value capture is driving our outsized growth versus SAAR. Communications, which represented 16% of revenue, achieved a quarterly record with strong year-over-year growth in both wireless and wireline. Sequentially, wireline outpaced wireless with growing demand for our optical and power portfolios as carriers and hyperscalers invest to meet the ever-growing demand for data. And lastly, consumer represented 13% of revenue and has now grown year-over-year for 7 consecutive quarters. As Vince highlighted, the diversity and growing design momentum across portables and prosumer is enabling us to grow despite the consumer market slowdown. Now on to the rest of the P&L. Gross margin was 74. 1%, up 250 basis points year-over-year, driven by higher utilization, favorable mix and synergy capture. OpEx in the quarter was $747 million, which reflects a full quarter of higher-than-normal merit increases. Operating margin increased 650 basis points year-over-year, finishing at 50.1% toward the high end of…

Thanks, Prashanth. Let's get to the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) With that, can we have our first question, please, Matt?

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.

I just wanted to clarify how much conservatism is in the Q4 outlook. And then a little bit longer term than that. What happens to the pricing lever as you start to see these bookings start to decelerate? Is pricing holding firm? Is it flat or down as customers start to think about next year?

Yes. Thank you for the question, Vivek. Let me take the first part of that, and then maybe I'll let Vince speak to the pricing. So we've been talking for a couple of quarters now that we were expecting a meaning full increase and our ability supply in the fourth quarter and we’ve been building that with the installations of equipment to that we’ve been having over the course of the year. So our supply -- our ability supply even access of the guide that we put out there. In addition, our backlog actually increased sequentially from -- into the third quarter to a new all-time record. And given kind of the strength in the backlog, the book-to-bill was still above one and increased supply, it's very logical we could print a bigger number. Having said that, we are very aware of the macro environment and a bit more softening in order activity that we saw towards the tail end of the quarter. So that's why we kind of held back a little bit on the guide to ensure that if this order softness does continue, we're not disappointing. Vince, do you want to address the pricing question?

Yes. Thanks, Vivek. Yes, so I think first and foremost, we are seeing tremendous stability. I don't expect to see any downward pressure on prices even in a recessionary environment. I think first and foremost, our products reflects an innovation premium for the kind of value that we deliver to our customers. Now we're never the long pull in the pricing tent either in the customer's bill of material. The other thing I would say, particularly in the high-performance analog space, the substitution costs are very, very high. So the disruption to a customer system design way, way outweighs considerations for price reduction. So where we obviously compete most intensively on a price basis is to get the original socket, but we have long life cycle products with tremendous stability, very, very high substitution costs. So my sense is that pricing will remain very, very steady through the cycle.

Our next question will come from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

I guess I'd like to focus on the slowdown in orders that you saw at the tail end of the quarter as well as the cancellations that you highlighted. Any more kind of detail you can provide there as it relates to subsegment of end markets, geography? Any color would be greatly appreciated.

Yes. Thank you. Thanks, C.J. Let me maybe talk about kind of the bookings momentum in a couple of different pieces. So first, third quarter results, where we're clearly broad-based strength, all end markets were up quarter-over-quarter and double digits year-over-year, so our sixth consecutive record. The only geography/market that was down year-over-year was China consumer. But that's a very small exposure for ADI, low -- very low exposure for ADI, low -- very low the third quarter, orders were up. Again, as I mentioned, strongest trends were industrial and auto, which represent about 70% of the business. Comms and consumer weaker, but again, we increased our backlog to another record, another new all-time high, and that covers us well into '23. Where we saw that change in demand was really cancellations ticked modestly higher. And I do say modestly. It is -- we want to be fully transparent on this call, so we're calling out but I wouldn't really put too much focus on the cancellation number. But again, in the spirit of transparency, we want to share that we did see that change in the demand profile. And we also saw that the channel sell-through began to moderate towards later in the quarter. So that is the sell-through from the channel or POS began to soften a bit versus what we were originally expecting. Overall, the book-to-bill was still above parity but it was definitely lower than it was a quarter ago. So as we set that guide for fourth quarter, given the uncertainty, changing trends in our business, we thought it's prudent to take a more cautious stance and therefore, we're guiding up only slightly on a quarter-over-quarter basis despite, as I mentioned in answering Vivek's question, despite having very strong backlog coverage, good bookings and better supply, which would all suggest higher growth.

Our next question will come from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO Capital. Please go ahead.

I just had a question, Prashanth, on the floor that you have laid out for the gross margin, which is way above where margins bottomed out at in the prior real cycle and connection prices. And I'm asking this because I get this question a lot. Hey, what's the downside EPS projection for ADI? And so if you could please help us understand kind of what are the underlying assumptions behind that as it relates to utilization inventory. And then more importantly, what are you assuming for revenues to go down to hit that level?

Sure, sure. Thank you, Ambrish. So maybe let's start with a reminder that this company is structurally more profitable than we ever have been. The addition of Maxim gives us the benefit of scale, and we have the benefit of that hybrid manufacturing model, which really gives us that flexibility to manage our production utilizations by being able to notify our supply chain partners in the event we need to, with essentially a quarter's notice, to bring the outside supply number down and focus on keeping internal utilizations higher. As a result of that, we feel very confident that kind of through the downturn of a cycle, we can maintain that 70% gross margin floor, which from an investor model standpoint, is a unique metric that we put out there to give a floor. In thinking about a downturn scenario, and again, I want to emphasize, this is a projection to help investors model what it could be, not in any way a forecast of what we think is coming at us. But from a revenue standpoint, we have this great diversification, 75,000 products, 125,000 customers and thousands and thousands of applications, which are aligned to numerous secular growth markets. We have exposure to much stronger markets in a down cycle like aerospace and defense and health care, which are not going to be as cyclical. On the gross margin side, I mentioned this flexible manufacturing model that allows us to really help manage utilizations. And then we have a very accordion-driven variable compensation program, which allows us to moderate OpEx. So if we were to think about a downside scenario that was in a 15% down revenue market, we believe op margins would still have a 4 handle on them, probably be in the low 40s and gross margins would probably be, again, above 70, but probably in the low 70s.

Our next question will come from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead.

I wanted to delve a little bit more into the bookings and the order. So was it like bookings before were 150% and now they're 130%? Like where is that book-to-bill actually coming in? How far above one is it? And I guess what are you assuming happens to the backlog as we go into next quarter? Are you assuming that, that backlog gets drawn down at all or are you assuming it goes up? Or just what are the assumptions around that embedded in the guidance?

Yes. So let's see what can we say here, Stacy. So for the last couple of quarters, excluding the third quarter, book-to-bill was -- actually, you can do the math because you can see how the backlog has increased so substantially. It between a one and a two, right? We're now still above one but we're at the lower end of that. Now industrial and automotive, strong, and that helped to compensate for -- I think I'm going from memory here, my consumer was just about flattish and comms was just a hair below.

What are you assuming in the next quarter for the backlog?

Yes, sure. I mean, the backlog is not that indicative of what happens for next quarter because it goes out into '23. So as you see these cancellations, this is a very small percent of the backlog and that's really into '23. So our assumption is backlog probably increases again because book-to-bill at an enterprise level is still above one. It's really not going to affect the demand for the fourth quarter or probably even the first quarter at this point. And as Prashanth said, I say investments bookings used to be way above one. Now they're nicely above one. So we're still booking above what we're shipping. So what would cause us not to come in kind of in line with supply, right? Why would we -- why would -- for the last couple of quarters, our revenue number has been purely a function of supply, and why could that not be the case for the fourth quarter? Why that could not be the case is if customers say, "We'd like to reschedule the timing and we choose, in the spirit of customer satisfaction, not to push it to them although they've ordered it and give them that flexibility to move out." And it could be, as I mentioned, from the channel standpoint, if the channel looks like inventory in the channel is building at a level that we don't think is healthy for the business. And we choose to keep that inventory on our books to give us more flexibility to make sure that we can match customer demand better.

I have one thing to that, that's important point Prashanth brought up on the channel is that 31:50 assumes really no channel inventory build. That's a sell-through number that we're guiding to.

Yes. Thank you, Mike.

That's four different parts to that answer, Stacy, so we'll go to the next question.

Our next question will come from Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please go ahead.

I just want to follow up on a part question in terms of just where you're seeing these cancellations. You said consumer and comms are weaker. I think you just said comms book-to-bill is below one. But I'm just trying to understand in the comments of I think channel sell-through was weaker as well. Can you dial us in, is it isolated to certain segments? Or is all of these comments kind of broad-based in terms of where you're seeing the cancellations and the weaker sell-through?

Everything is broad-based, and we -- I think that if we have overemphasized cancellations on this call, that's probably a true statement right now, is I don't want to mislead folks to think that cancellations are a meaningful concern. But again, in the spirit of transparency, we're saying that they were up modestly.

But everything we've talked about has been pretty broad-based.

And on comms, I just -- maybe just one follow-up is this has always been a lumpy business. We know that the wireless guys have spent a big chunk of money buying spectrum. That spectrum has to be deployed, which will require the 5G hardware that we have the market share leading position on. So we're highly confident. This is a pretty of timing issue.

Our next question will come from Tore Svanberg with Stifel. Please go ahead.

And congrats on another record. As we sort of move through this software environment, how are you thinking about the three big cost levers, utilization, OpEx and CapEx going forward?

Okay. So I think we've talked through some of that, Tore, but from at least certainly utilization levels, we're going to continue to see relatively good utilization levels across our internal factories for a few reasons: one is the benefit of the hybrid model is that we can bring more production in-house; second is that die bank levels are at very low levels, and we do need to get those die bank levels back to a healthy point. Die bank is an extremely cost-efficient place for us to hold inventory, particularly when you have 75,000 SKUs. You can hold it sort of think of it as $0.10 on the dollar. So it is very economically efficient and allows us to improve customer satisfaction later on. From an OpEx standpoint, as you've seen in the past, we have a very accordion-driven variable compensation program, which automatically unwinds if the financial performance of the company drives it to. And I think what's unique to ADI versus perhaps some of our peers is we have the cost synergies from Maxim, which are independent of the economic environment. From a CapEx standpoint, expect us to be -- it is business as usual. We had committed at the Investor Day to a higher level of CapEx in '22 and '23, which is necessary to add the supply needed to hit our long-term model of 7% to 10% growth, which we are very much committed to, and that is on track. Capital spend for the current quarter -- sorry, for the current year, maybe a bit below what we expected. That's a consequence of revenue coming in stronger, so bigger denominator and also just a little bit of delay in the receiving some of that equipment, but all of that will drive through in 2023.

Yes. Sorry, Tore. On the OpEx side, we intend to -- we've been spending R&D at record levels. We intend to continue to ensure that we have properly funded all our critical programs. Innovation at a very, very important part of the value creation story of ADI. We are -- also we've been upping actually the spend in our go-to-market activities as well. So both of those, we will continue to keep our pedal to the metal on.

Our next question will come from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

I wanted to ask a question on the supply side sort of the equation. Three months ago, you had talked about significant tightness, whether it be your internal supply or external foundry supply. I'm just curious if you're starting to see signs of supply easing. I guess test was a big bottleneck for internal supply 3, 6 months ago. Any changes there? And in terms of foundry wafer supply, again, any signs of easing? And kind of related to that, there have been some headlines about foundry wafer pricing increasing again in late '22 going into '23. Is that sort of the indication you're getting from your suppliers? And if so, are you comfortable that you'd be able to pass those through to your customers?

Well, I think the last part of your question, first, on pricing increases, I believe that we are in the post-Moore's Law era and in a period of sustained structural inflation in this business for many, many years ahead. I think it's true to say that supply -- we've been increasing, of course. We've invested strongly in our own manufacturing capabilities to be able to secure supply and increase supply actually across the four wafer fabs inside ADI. So yes, supply is improving there. And thematically as well as supply has been improving actually right through the pandemic, right over the last couple of years from our subcontractors as well. So I think there is a lightening of supply across the board.

On pricing, maybe I'll just restate what we said in the past. We are not using this environment to take advantage of our customers, and we are really looking to maintain our gross margin model. And the rationale on that gross margin model, which is important to us, is we know, as Vince mentioned, we spend at a healthy clip on R&D to develop highly innovative products, and we need to capture that innovation premium from our customers. So as our costs may increase, it's important that we continue to capture those cost increases back with stable margins because it's a reflection of the value we're bringing to our customers.

Our next question will come from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Just one clarification. So I just wanted to verify, so you guys said that currently, quarter-to-date, your book-to-bill is still greater than one. That's my clarification question. Then my main question is distribution represents about 60% of the team's revenues, right? And it looks like just the inventories are still below your target levels of 7 to 8 weeks. Obviously, the eventual catch-up should provide you guys with some cushion if the environment continues to weaken further. But that being said, it still feels like auto and industrial demand is still quite strong. So given your outlook, like what's your view on getting to target levels on channel inventories over the next few quarters?

Yes. Thanks, Harlan. Your -- first of all, say that you recapped it correctly, and there is some opportunity for us to continue to grow our revenue by bringing distis levels back to our healthy target level. But I want to emphasize that the guide, as Mike mentioned, the guide for the fourth quarter is on the basis of POS equals POA. One thing that ADI has been very consistent about for many years is we run our business on POS. So we need to look at end demand, and end demand drives how we end up manufacturing, and we want distis to be able to help us with access for those products, but we are not looking for distribution to be an excess buffer of inventory.

And the one other part of the question that you had, Harlan, was book-to-bill. Yes, for the quarter, book-to-bill was still well above one at enterprise level. That was driven by industrial and auto with the two strongest markets, while comms and consumer, we'll call about flat, around one. And with that, may we have our last question, please?

Our last question will come from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Vince, a lot of questions about near-term cancellations, bookings, backlog, all those sorts of things. I wanted to ask a slightly longer one. You mentioned in answer to an earlier question about we're in a post-Moore's Law world. We're going to have an inflationary environment rather than deflationary. Can you just talk a little bit about how the customer conversations have changed? Over the last few months, we've heard a lot from last year, a lot from companies saying it's more of a partnership, longer lead times, et cetera, long-term supply agreements, those sorts of things. Do you still see that behavior continuing? Or do you believe that's a little bit more of a reflection of cyclical tightness and you expect some of that to unwind as well?

Yes, it's a very good question. I've had a lot of conversations, Ross, over the last couple of years with CEOs of the biggest enterprises in the world of information. And what I can tell you for sure is that everybody wants to get closer to their key suppliers when it comes to aligning product roadmaps for the long term. Particularly companies that are perceived as being critical for their innovation processes. So I can tell you that continues. And the other side of the equation is everybody wants to understand at the customer side of things, what do they need to do to secure supply for the long term? And what kind of arrangements that they need to put in place? What kind of information flows? What kind of models that we develop between each other? So that continues. And I think it has been firmly established now that semiconductors are the bedrock of the modern -- of modern socioeconomic life. So the conversations continue intensively, I would say, and I expect that to continue well into the future.

And with that, thanks, everyone, for joining our call this morning. I did want to flag that during these more uncertain times and consistent with our commitment to transparency for our owners, we'll be even more available. Vince and Prashanth will be in New York, L.A., the Bay Area, Chicago and across Europe in the next quarter, so it's a busy quarter coming up for us. Please reach out to myself or the IR team if you'd like to be notified when we're in your neighborhood. And with that, thanks for joining us and your continued interest in ADI.

This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call. You may now disconnect.