Christopher Reidy
Analyst · Barclays Capital
Thanks, Gary, and good morning, everyone. Before I get started, I just wanted to let everyone know that Elena Charles was unable to join us today due to personal reasons. Elena is expected back in the office next week. And in the meantime, you can reach out to Debbie Morris with any follow-up questions you may have after the call. For those of you following along, we're on Slide 4. For the year, total revenues increased 1% to $8.9 billion, including 0.8% from favorable foreign exchange rates. As you saw in our press release this morning, ADP's results for both years included favorable one-time tax items, so on the slide, we’ve shown both the reported results as well as the results excluding the tax item. Excluding these items, net earnings declined 1% compared with a year ago, and earnings per share from continuing operations declined $0.01, as anticipated, to $2.37 on fewer [ph] shares outstanding. In our commitment to return excess cash to our shareholders, we increased our open market share repurchases during the fourth quarter, buying back 11.7 million shares for about $485 million. For the full year, ADP's share repurchases totaled 18.2 million shares for over $765 million. Now let's turn to Slide 5, Employer Services. As you'll see when we get to the Q4 discussion, ES’s revenue growth improved during the year and the full year ended flat with last year. As mentioned last quarter, the full year was impacted by fewer W-2s processed this year and pressure on implementation revenues in the high-end U.S. market. Revenues in our Payroll and Tax Filing business in the United States declined 4% for the year. Our beyond payroll revenues in the U.S. grew 6%, led by growth in our time and labor management solutions, COBRA and HR benefits. Revenues in our Retirement Services business also increased from the favorable impact of the increase in the stock market from a year ago, which resulted in higher retirement asset values, on which a portion of our fees are based. ES's pretax margin declined 60 basis points from a year ago. In addition to the pressure from flat revenues, increased sales and service costs along with higher benefits and compensation expenses offset last year's restructuring benefits. As Gary mentioned earlier in his comments, we are pleased that our pays per control and retention metrics for the year were better than anticipated. Pays per control, our same-store sales employment metric for the U.S., declined 3.4% for the year compared with our expectation of a 4% decline. The number of pays in our International markets across Europe declined 3.2% compared with last year on a same store-sales basis. And the decline in Canada was 3.8%. We are very pleased with the improvement in client retention of 0.4 percentage points for the year, and we ended the year back up around the 90% retention level which, as you know, is very strong. New business sales for ES and PEO Services combined were up 4% for the year. We were particularly pleased that the dollar value of new business sold returned to just over $1 billion for the year. Now let's turn to Slide 6. The PEO grew revenues 11% for the year, all organic, primarily from increased pass-through revenues and an increase in the number of worksite employees. Pretax margin declined 30 basis points, primarily from higher benefits pass-through costs and the resulting overall price sensitivity. Year-over-year, average worksite employees paid increased 5% to 203,000. Now let's turn to Slide 7, moving on to Dealer Services. Dealer Services revenues declined 3% for the year, 4% organically. Revenues continued to be negatively impacted by the cumulative effect of dealerships closing. In North America, core DMS and transaction-related revenues declined for the year, while beyond-the-core DMS revenues grew slightly, led by growth in IP telephony and networking, CRM and front office solutions. International revenues were impacted by lower software license fees due to client delays in implementation. Pretax margin declined 60 basis points. The pretax margin was negatively impacted by an intangible asset impairment charge of $7 million recorded in the first quarter relating to General Motors’ announced closure of its Saturn brand. Excluding this Saturn-related charge, Dealer’s full year pretax margin was flat as lower revenues, the impact of acquisition-related costs, increased benefits and compensation costs and higher sales expenses all offset last year's restructuring benefits. On the sales front, Dealer Services continue to gain market share and increased penetration of its layered applications compared with a year ago, with strong sales results and fourth quarter momentum. Now let's turn to review of the fourth quarter results on Slide 8. We are pleased that total revenues increased 4% to $2.2 billion in the quarter, including 0.6% benefit from favorable foreign exchange rates. Similar to the earlier slide for the full year, we've shown both the reported EPS results as well as the corresponding results, excluding last year's fourth quarter tax benefit. Excluding these benefits, net earnings were down 9% and earnings per share from continuing operations declined 7% to $0.42, from $0.45 a share on fewer shares outstanding. As Gary mentioned, we reached an inflection point in most of our key metrics, and as a result, we made the decision to invest in the business. As a result, fourth quarter earnings and margins were impacted by the investments we made to drive the future growth of the company. While these additional expenses cause short-term earnings and margin pressure, they are necessary to support future growth. Aside from incremental investments, we also incurred higher sales commissions from increased sales during the quarter. And to remind you, last year we told you that we froze [indiscernible] increases and management incentive compensation was also reduced, resulting in year-to-year grow-off [ph] of pressures. Earnings from our client funds portfolio also declined $13 million this quarter due to a decline in market interest rates, which I'll take you through in more detail in a few slides. Let's turn to Slide 9 and go through the business unit results for the quarter. Employer Services revenues grew 4%, nearly all organic, for the quarter. We were pleased that revenues in our Payroll and Tax Filing business in United States grew slightly in the quarter after five consecutive quarters of decline. Now beyond payroll revenues in the U.S. continue to grow, with 9% growth in the quarter driven by ASL, our BPO offering at the low end of the market, Retirement Services and other beyond payroll solutions such as Tax Credit Services. Yes, this fourth quarter pretax margin declined 290 basis points, driving much of the decline in total ADP margins. Higher revenues in the benefit from last year's restructuring were offset by incremental hiring and service, as well as in growth areas like ASO and International. The impact of higher sales commissions on increased sales, increased merit, benefit and compensation, the impact of acquisitions, investments and our products and infrastructure and additional sales headcount in [ph] programs. Pays per control, which is our same-store sales employment metric, increased 0.3% in the quarter compared to the fourth quarter last year. Even though small, this is the first increase in this metric for eight quarters, back to the first quarter of fiscal 2009. The number of pays in Europe declined in the quarter compared with a year ago on a same store-sales basis. The decline appears to be stabilizing, but still has declined compared with the positive results we saw in the U.S. metric. I'll talk a little bit about how this difference in the pays trend impacts fiscal year '11 when we get to guidance. Client revenue retention continued to improve with the notable increase of 1.6 percentage points in the quarter. As Gary mentioned, we are pleased that new business sales increased 25% in the quarter for ES and PEO. I'd also like to point out that this was the first quarter of positive sales growth since the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. To remind you, new business sales represents the expected new annual recurring dollar value of these sales and our incremental recurring revenues to our existing recurring revenue base. [indiscernible] revenue waterfall chart with you in a few moments. For now, let's continue with the quarter's results, starting with Slide 10 in the PEO. PEO reported 13% revenue growth for the quarter, all organic, primarily from increased tax revenues and an increase in the number of worksite employees. Pretax margin declined 40 basis points, primarily due to higher benefit pass-through costs and the resulting overall price [indiscernible]. Year-over-year for the fourth quarter, average worksite employees increased 8.5% to over 210,000. Also, an important inflection point to call out is this exit rate exceeds the fiscal 2010 average gross rate of 5%. Moving on to Dealer Services. Dealer Services revenues were flat for the fourth quarter. Dealer's pretax margin declined 310 basis points. Flat revenues, the impact of higher benefit and compensation costs, acquisition-related costs and incremental investments in the business to drive future growth were only partially offset by the benefit of last year's restructuring and additional cost control measures. Now let's turn to Slide 12. Before we get into the results of our investment strategy for client funds, I want to remind everyone that the safety and liquidity of our client funds continue to be the foremost objectives of our strategy. Client funds are invested primarily in fixed income securities, in accordance with ADP's prudent and conservative investment guidelines. To give you a quick understanding of how to read the schedule, as most of you have previously seen it, this schedule shows the overall impact of our client funds portfolio extended investment strategy, with average balances and interest yields shown on the top half of the slide, and the corresponding pretax P&L impact shown on the lower half, all color-coded. Getting into the details for the year, the results were pretty much in line with our most recent forecast. Near the top right of the slide, you can see that average client fund balances were flat compared with the year ago period, at $15.2 billion. Fewer pays, hence lower Payroll sales, were offset by wage growth, increased state unemployment rate, net pay growth and a positive impact from Canadian foreign exchange rates. While average balances were flat, the average yields on the client funds portfolio declined 45 basis points to 3.6%, resulting in a decline of $67 million in interest on funds held for clients on the P&L. The impact from lower new purchase rates was most pronounced in the client short portfolio, with the average yield earned with 110 basis points lower than last year, as the Fed funds rate declined to its current range of zero to 25 basis points late in our second quarter of fiscal 2009. The average corporate extended balances, the purple section on the slide, were down about $300 million compared to last year. The average yield on the corporate extended declined slightly, about 20 basis points. At the bottom of the slide, you see a $16 million negative impact to the P&L as a result of this decreased balance and the lower yield. Average borrowings were down this year and the average interest rate paid on those borrowings dropped 90 basis points to a blended average borrowing rate of 0.2%. The results was a $21 million positive impact to the P&L, offsetting the $21 million negative impact on the client short portfolio. When you take into consideration the entire extended strategy presented here, the results was a $63 million P&L decrease before tax, or a decline of 9%, driven primarily by the year-over-year decline in market interest rates. The bottom line $622 million of pretax dollars generated by this strategy for the year resulted in an overall yield of 4.1% compared with 4.5% last year; much more than the decline in the market interest rate. Now let's turn to Slide 13, where I'll take you through the results to the fourth quarter. This schedule for the quarter is presented in the same format. For the quarter, average client fund balances were up $1.4 billion or 9% compared with the year-ago period, and the average yield on the client funds portfolio declined 50 basis points to 3.4%, resulting in a decline of $7 million in interest on funds held for clients on the P&L. You can see the impact from lower new purchase rates were the same throughout the client portfolio, where the average yields earned were 30 basis points lower than last year. Average borrowings were down in the quarter. However, the average interest rate paid on those borrowings remained at a blended average rate of 0.3%. The results was a negligible impact to the P&L. Now focusing your attention on the net P&L impact on the lower portion of the slide, taking into consideration the entire extended strategy presented here, the results were a $13 million P&L decrease before tax, or a decline of 8% [ph]. The overall yield of the bottom line impact when calculated is 3.8% compared to 4.5% last year. Now let's turn to Slide 14, where I'll take you through the extended investment strategy forecast for fiscal 2011. Before I get into discussing the detailed forecast, I'd like to update you on the credit quality of the portfolio. As was the case when we last showed you the details at our February Analyst Conference, currently about 85% of the portfolio remains AAA or AA-rated. Net unrealized gains, as of last week, are up another $30 million from the net gain of $711 million as of June 30, reported in this morning's earnings release. While the level of unrealized gains will change as the interest rate environment changes, the way to think about this is that the unrealized gains indicate we are holding security, yielding higher rates than current market rates. As part of our extended investment strategy, our intent is to hold these securities to maturity, and over time, earning is [ph] higher than the current market yield. I also would like to point out that this $700 million-plus net unrealized gain includes gross unrealized losses of less than $10 million. Now for the fiscal 2011 forecast. This slide summarizes the anticipated pretax earnings impact of the extended investment strategy for the client funds investment portfolio for fiscal 2011. It's important to keep in mind that 15% to 20% of the investments are subject to reinvestment each year. We’re anticipating an increase in average client fund balances 2% to 3%, driven by wage growth, increased state unemployment rates and net pay growth. You'll recall that the fourth quarter average client balances grew 9%. I'll spend a quick minute to help you frame why we're not expecting that level of growth and balances to repeat in fiscal 2011. Wage growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010 followed the wage decline in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009, and was influenced by over 30% growth in bonuses and a return to merit increases in the current period. Fiscal 2011 wage growth, we are still assuming growth, but at a more modest rate. State unemployment rates also affect the growth rate. Fully effective rates increased dramatically at the onset of calendar 2010 by third fiscal quarter versus calendar '09. As states look to refill their coffers, [indiscernible] rate increases tend to lag in [ph] downturn. While we expect those increased rates to hold true during the beginning of fiscal 2011, we don’t get much average balance benefit as we [indiscernible] seasonally low balance period. When the calendar 2011 fully [ph] effective rate goes into effect, we're expecting another increase in rates, but not to the extents of the large increase we saw in 2010 versus 2009. That's having less of an impact on average balance growth in the back half of fiscal '11 versus what we saw in fiscal '10. So we’re forecasting pays per control to be flat to up 0.5% for the year, and we're anticipating a yield on the client funds portfolio of 3.3% to 3.4%, down 20 to 30 basis points from fiscal 2010. We're anticipating a decline of $25 million to $30 million in client funds interest as the lower anticipated interest yield will more than offset the expected growth in balance. Average new purchase rates are expected to be around 275 basis points lower than the embedded rates on maturing investment. We're anticipating that average corporate extended balances will be flat to up to $100 million, and the average yield on the corporate extended will be down 30 to 40 basis points. We're anticipating average borrowings will also be flat to up $100 million, and the average interest rate paid on those borrowings will be up slightly in fiscal 2011 10 to 20 basis points to a blended average borrowing rate of 0.3% to 0.4%. Looking now at the lower right of the chart, you see that [indiscernible] anticipated decline in interest rate is expected to outweigh the benefit of growing average balances, resulting in a $35 million to $40 million decline in pretax earnings for fiscal 2011. Fiscal 2011, we anticipate a decline of about 30 basis points from fiscal 2010's overall yield; a 4.1% on the net impact of the strategy. Now I'll turn it back to Gary to take you through the remainder of the forecast for fiscal 2011.