Carlos A. Rodriguez
Analyst · Jason Kupferberg with Jefferies
I think when you listen to the economist Mark Zandi, who really helps and kind of has the real data behind the numbers that we report, we do believe, in this case, unlike in our sales results, that the government shutdown did have an impact. And so, if you listen to him this morning describe kind of where he is, he believes that that number probably had a 20,000 to 30,000 impact, if you will, from the government shutdown. But even excluding that, that gets you back to, call it around 150,000, which is really below the trend back 6 months ago. So when I look at these numbers, I try to look at more than just 1 month. And if you look at, excluding October, the previous 2 quarters, the last quarter was down sequentially about 20,000 per month on average than the previous quarter. So the trend was definitely down, but it feels like 150,000 is where Zandi would say we are right now, which is not where we were before at 170,000 or 190,000. But right now, it doesn't seem like it's the number that's -- there is no clear indication yet that, that's going to break even lower than that kind of 150,000 trend. Because this month had some noise in it because of the government shutdown.