Earnings Labs

Ameren Corporation (AEE)

Q3 2009 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 30, 2009

$112.23

-0.03%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Ameren Corporation’s third quarter earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Doug Fischer, Director of IR for Ameren Corporation. Thank you Mr. Fischer, you may begin.

Doug Fischer

Management

Thank you and good morning. I’m Doug Fischer, Director of Investor Relations for Ameren Corporation. On the call with me today is our President and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Voss; our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Marty Lyons, and other members of the Ameren management team. Before we begin, let me cover a few administrative details. This call will be available by telephone for one week to anyone who wishes to hear it by dialing a playback number. The announcement you received in our news release contain instructions on replaying the call by telephone. This call is also being broadcast live on the Internet and the webcast will be available for one year on our website www.ameren.com. This call contains time sensitive data that is accurate only as of the date of today’s live broadcast. Redistribution of this broadcast is prohibited. To assist in our call this morning we have posted presentation slides ton website that we will refer to during this call. To access this presentation you may look in the investor section of our website under presentations and follow the appropriate link. Turning to slide two of our presentation, I need to let you know that comments made on this conference call may contain statements that are commonly referred to as forward-looking statements. Such statements include those about future expectations, belief, plans, strategies, objective, events, conditions and financial performance. We caution you that various factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. For additional information concerning these factors, we ask you to read the forward-looking statements section in the news release we issued today and the forward-looking statements and risk factors section in our periodic filings with the SEC. Tom will begin with an overview of third quarter 2009 earnings guidance followed by a brief business update. Marty will follow with more detail discussion of our third quarter 2009 financial results, our 2009 earnings guidance and a financial update. We will then open the call for questions. Here’s Tom.

Tom Voss

Chief Executive Officer

Thanks Doug. Good morning and thank you for joining us. Moving to slide three of the presentation on our website I am pleased to report that this morning we released third quarter 2009 non-GAAP or core earnings per share of $1.16. That is just $0.01 less than our core earnings in the third quarter of 2008, despite much cooler summer weather and the weak economy. Factors favorably effecting core third quarter 2009 earnings per share verses year ago results included utility rate adjustments in Illinois and Missouri, lower operations and maintenance expenses and the revenue leveling effect of natural gas rate redesign in Illinois. Offsetting factors included lower electricity sales at regulated utilities and lower margins in the merchant generation segment due to much cooler summer weather and economic conditions. Higher interest expense and an increase in average common shares outstanding also impacted comparative results. Turning now to slide four, with our most significant earnings quarters behind us, we are narrowing our 2009 core earnings per share guidance range to $2.70 to $2.90 from our prior range of $2.70 to $3.05. Our new core guidance reflects reduced sales due to much cooler than normal third quarter weather and continued weak economic conditions as well as dilution from our September 2009 common equity offering. The impact to these factors is partially offset by reduced operating and interest expenses as compared to our prior guidance. Marty will provide more details in third quarter earnings in our updated 2009 guidance in his remarks, but before I turn the call over to him I would like to provide a brief business update. Looking now at slide five, you will note a breakdown of regulated electricity sales and revenue levels. This is a topic of great interest in the current economic environment. In the third…

Marty Lyons

Chief Financial Officer

Thank, Tom. Turning to slide six, I would like to direct you to the Q3 column, which reconciles third quarter 2008 earnings to third quarter 2009 earnings. Third quarter 2009 net income in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles was 227 million or $1.04 per share compared to third quarter 2008 GAAP net income of $204 million or $0.97 per share. Excluding certain items in each year, Ameren recorded third quarter 2009 core net income of $255 million or $1.16 per share compared with third quarter 2008 core net income of $246 million or $1.17 per share. There are three items in the third quarter of 2009 that we have excluded from our core earns. These items of the net costs associated with the Illinois comprehensive electric rate relief and customer assistance settlement agreement reached in 2007, which reduced third quarter 2009 GAAP earnings by $0.02 per share. The net effects of mark-to-market activities, which decreased third quarter 2009 GAAP earnings by $0.04 per share and the cost of employee separation programs and the retirement of two generating units at Meredosia Power Plant, which reduced third quarter 2009 GAAP earnings by $0.06 per share. Cost of the Illinois electric rate relief settlement agreement and the net effects of mark-to-market were also excluded from core earnings in the year ago quarter. Continuing with the third quarter reconciliation on slide six, the Missouri electric rate increase, which took effect March 1, 2009 raised third quarter 2009 earnings we $0.16 per share net of amortization compared to the third quarter of 2008. The net increase in Illinois electric and natural gas delivery service rates effective October 1, 2008 boosted third quarter 2009 earnings by $0.14 per share compared to the year ago quarter. The effect of seasonally redesigned gas distribution rates in Illinois,…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions)Your first question comes from Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs

Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Can you talk about come in the fourth quarter, I mean if hedges back in year fourth quarter guidance, can you talk about the rate, how the rate redesign items impact fourth quarter of ‘09 versus fourth quarter of ‘08?

Marty Lyons

Chief Financial Officer

I think if you take a look at our year-to-date results as well as the guidance that we have provided and take a look at the balance of the year, I think you will find that as compared to last year’s say core earnings we expect to be down about $0.10 versus the prior year core net. This is driven we positive impacts of the Missouri rate case of course which happened in March as well as the lack of a Callaway refueling outage which is having a positive impact year-over-year in the fourth quarter, both in terms of O&M costs which are reduced as well as the net fuel costs, you will recall last year we cannot have a fuel adjustment cost in Missouri, which meant that when the Callaway plant went down we had fewer megawatt hours to sale, and therefore higher fuel costs and less off system sales. This year we will recognize in our cost of fuel will be the net base fuel cost that are reflected in the fuel adjustment cost we received earlier this year. So, that’s expected to have a net positive in the fourth quarter. We think those positives will be offset by higher distribution system expenses, higher taxes in the fourth quarter, as well as lower merchant margins and higher financing costs including dilution. So, that’s sort of a summary of what we’re expecting in the fourth quarter versus last year.

Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

One thick, what are you seeing and what kind of changes on the merchant side of you seen between basis differentials between your plants and kind of the hub.

Tom Voss

Chief Executive Officer

I think what we saw earlier this year was that, we were seeing basis differentials that were sort of, I would say 4% to 7% range between our generation and hub. We saw sort of those trends higher in the summer and then kind of drop off a little bit as we got into July and August. In September, they rose a bit again and frankly as a result of that, we reflected a little bit higher basis differential in our forecast for the remainder of the year, but it really as you think about that, the basis differential only really impacts us in a bit of a limited way. Depending upon which of our plants you are looking at for example our EEI job a plant, the basis differential there between there and synergy is a little bit lower than you see with respect to some of our other generation and then our other generation depending upon how it is hedged we may not see as much basis differential. For example, if the hedge has a settlement at a node that’s on top of our generation, then you’re not going to see a basis differential. It’s only if you get a hedge for that generation that that’s in hub. So, I keep that in mind as you think about the basis differentials.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from Dan Jenkins - State of Wisconsin Investment Board.

Dan Jenkins - State of Wisconsin Investment Board

Analyst · Wisconsin Investment Board

Just wondering, have you gotten the staff positions yet on Illinois and Missouri cases?

Marty Lyons

Chief Financial Officer

We have received a staff position in Illinois, but staff position in the Missouri case is not due until December.

Dan Jenkins - State of Wisconsin Investment Board

Analyst · Wisconsin Investment Board

So what’s in Illinois, what’s their position and what are the primary drivers of the difference between your request and what they’re recommending?

Marty Lyons

Chief Financial Officer

The staff position in Illinois came in at $45 million, and there are a number of drivers to that. One of which is, return on equity where they recommended lower returns on equity. They’ve also normalized a number of expense items and lowered those as well as suggested that certain of the pro forma additions in costs that we recommended be included in rates, be excluded from the overall rate increase.

Dan Jenkins - State of Wisconsin Investment Board

Analyst · Wisconsin Investment Board

How much is due to the lower ROE?

Marty Lyons

Chief Financial Officer

The lower ROE versus our Rebuttal case is about $35 million of the overall difference.

Dan Jenkins - State of Wisconsin Investment Board

Analyst · Wisconsin Investment Board

I was curious on the voluntary and involuntary separations, how many positions are you looking for in total and how is that versus what you’re seeing so far in the voluntary program?

Marty Lyons

Chief Financial Officer

In terms of the voluntary program, that the program has been completed. We offered it to over 300 employees, and we had about 100 employees except that program. As Tom mentioned, we’ve also reduced positions in our merchant business between 140 and 150 positions. As Tom mentioned in the early November timeframe, we’ll be also implementing some involuntary reduction measures as well.

Dan Jenkins - State of Wisconsin Investment Board

Analyst · Wisconsin Investment Board

What’s the total amount you’re looking to save through those programs?

Marty Lyons

Chief Financial Officer

The target is really is more about the involuntary about making our organization better and more effective. It will be probably somewhere between 50 and 100 reductions.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will turn the conference back to management for closing comments. Thank you.

Doug Fischer

Management

Thank you for participating in this call. Let me remind you again, that this call will be available through November 6, on playback, and for one year on our website. The announcement carries instructions on listening to the playback. You may also call the contacts listed on our news release. Financial analysts, enquiry should be directed to me, Dough Fischer, media should contact Susan Gallagher. My number and Susan’s contact numbers are on the news release. Again thanks for your interest in Ameren.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.