Martin J. Lyons
Analyst · Glenrock Associates
Yes. Sure, Paul. As it relates to the sales growth, I think as we came into this year, we talked about, I think, 0 to maybe even 0.5%, however, of growth as it related to residential and commercial sales. And as we sit here today, I'd say we're seeing sort of different conditions in Missouri and Illinois. We're actually seeing that nearly 0.5% sales growth in residential and commercial sales in Missouri despite, I would say, some spending that -- we've increased spending we've had this year in terms of energy efficiency. And we've also seen industrial sales growth in Missouri this year of about 0.7%. So overall, we're pleased, I'd say, with that level of growth. As I said, we are spending quite a bit on energy efficiency, which, I think longer term, will keep that sales growth more muted and down in that 0 to 0.5% range. Some positives, I'd say, we're seeing in Missouri. We have seen, this year, growth in jobs in both services jobs, as well as goods-producing kind of jobs, manufacturing jobs. And I think that's some of what's coming through in terms of improved sales. So we do expect continued moderate growth, but offset by continuing conservation and energy efficiency mitigating some of that sales growth. But year-to-date, happy with that. In Illinois, it's not been -- not quite as positive. We've seen that residential and commercial sales, actually flat to down, about 0.5%, with commercial, in fact, being down a little more than residential. In industrial sales, as we've talked about on prior calls, down about 6.6% this year. And that does reflect, I'd say, some of the conditions we've been seeing in Illinois. We have seen -- in terms of jobs, we have seen goods-producing jobs down, though I would say services jobs have been up in Illinois. But the conditions just don't seem to be as good with some of the industrial sales down. We've seen declines at places like Caterpillar and heavy equipment and some of the metals areas, steel, U.S. Steel, things like that. One important thing to remember though, Paul, about Illinois is that we do have the formula rates there, and there is a -- we got a formulaic ROE, but there's also a collar around that, plus or minus 50 basis points, which means that, at the end of the day, sales fluctuations, positive or negative, are bound by that, so at most, I'd say a $0.025 positive or negative from any kind of sales fluctuations, whether they be weather related or load related.