Earnings Labs

Ameren Corporation (AEE)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 6, 2014

$111.59

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Ameren Corporation Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Doug Fischer, Senior Director of Investor Relations for Ameren Corporation. Thank you, Mr. Fischer. You may now begin.

Douglas Fischer

Analyst

Thank you, and good morning. I'm Doug Fischer, Senior Director of Investor Relations for Ameren Corporation. On the call with me today are Warner Baxter, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Marty Lyons, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; as well as other members of the Ameren management team. Before we begin, let me cover a few administrative details. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet, and the webcast will be available for 1 year on our website at ameren.com. Further, this call contains time-sensitive data that is accurate only as of the date of today's live broadcast, and redistribution of this broadcast is prohibited. To assist with our call this morning, we have posted on our website a presentation that will be referenced by our speakers, who may use terms or acronyms which are defined in the document. To access this presentation, please look in the Investors section of our website under Webcasts & Presentations and follow the appropriate link. Turning to Page 2 of the presentation. I need to inform you that comments made during this conference call may contain statements that are commonly referred to as forward-looking statements. Such statements include those about future expectations, beliefs, plans, strategies, objectives, events, conditions and financial performance. We caution you that various factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. For additional information concerning these factors, please read the Forward-looking Statements section in the news release we issued today and the Forward-looking Statements and Risk Factors sections in our filings with the SEC. Warner will begin this call with comments on third quarter financial results and full year earnings guidance. He will then provide a business update. Marty will follow with a more detailed discussion of third quarter results and provide updates on financial and regulatory matters. We will then open the call for questions. Before Warner begins, I would like to mention that all per share amounts discussed during today's presentation, including earnings guidance, are presented on a diluted and continuing operations basis, unless otherwise noted. Now here's Warner, who will start on Page 4 of the presentation.

Warner L. Baxter

Analyst

Thanks, Doug, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, we announced third quarter 2014 earnings of $1.20 per share compared to the year-ago quarter's earnings of $1.25 per share. This earnings decrease primarily reflected milder summer temperatures in this year's quarter, which reduced native load electric sales volume. This lowered earnings by an estimated $0.06 per share compared to the year-ago quarter and by an estimated $0.09 per share compared to normal. Marty will discuss other key drivers of third quarter earnings in a few minutes. While the milder-than-normal third quarter temperatures erased most of the weather-related earnings benefits realized earlier in the year, we remain on track to deliver strong earnings growth in 2014. In fact, earnings for the 9 months ended September 30 of this year were $2.21 per share, an increase of $0.30 per share compared to the year-ago 9-month period. As a result, today, we narrowed our earnings guidance range for this year to $2.30 to $2.45 per share from our prior range of $2.30 to $2.50 per share. Turning to page 5. We have also reaffirmed our longer-term earnings per share growth outlook of 7% to 10%, compounded annually from 2013 to 2018. In addition, I am pleased to note that last month, our Board of Directors increased our quarterly dividend to $0.41 per share, resulting in a new indicated annual rate of $1.64 per share. This is a 2.5% increase from the prior rate of $1.60 per share and reflects the increased financial stability that resulted from the disposition of the merchant power business and our confidence in the outlook for our regulated utility businesses. Looking ahead, we continue to expect our dividend payout ratio to be between 55% and 70% of annual earnings. Of course, future dividend increases will…

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Thank you, Warner. Turning now to Page 12 of our presentation. As Warner noted today, we reported earnings of $1.20 per share for the third quarter of 2014 compared to $1.25 per share for the third quarter of 2013. Key drivers of this earnings decline are listed on this page. We experienced much milder-than-normal temperatures in the third quarter of this year with cooling degree days falling 10 percent below those of the year-ago quarter and 14% below normal in our service territories. As a result, native load electric sales volumes declined, reducing earnings by an estimated $0.06 per share compared to the third quarter of last year and by an estimated $0.09 per share compared to normal. Other factors contributing to the decrease of the third quarter 2014 earning from the year-ago quarter included a higher effective tax rate and increased depreciation and amortization expenses. The earnings comparison was positively affected by increased rates for FERC-regulated electric transmission and Illinois natural gas delivery services, both effective at the beginning of this year, as well as decreased interest charges. Moving then to Page 13. As Warner also mentioned, our full year 2014 earnings guidance range is now $2.30 to $2.45 per share. On this page, we highlight select fourth quarter 2014 earnings per share considerations incorporated into this guidance. First, we expect fourth quarter 2014 results to benefit from the previously discussed 2014 increases in rates for FERC-regulated electric transmission and Illinois natural gas delivery services. Second, Illinois electric delivery earnings under formula ratemaking are expected to increase compared to the year-ago fourth quarter. This reflects expected higher revenues recognized under formula ratemaking as a result of higher rate base, among other things. The allowed ROE for our Illinois electric delivery service is established by adding 580 basis points to…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.

Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC

Analyst

Just on the -- I just want to settle -- I want to check out the FERC stuff a little bit here. The -- one of the things that came out of the order seemed to be sort of they dismissed the complaint -- one of the complainants' issues regarding the equity level. And I was wondering if you could remind us what the equity level is currently at the transmission business and whether that could be changed as a result of this.

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Well, the -- Paul, this is Marty. In terms of the equity level, during construction, we do have the ability to use hypothetical cap structure with equity of 56% in that cap structure, and so that is what is being used. And then, as projects actually go into service, then they have the cap structure that is in whatever legal entity that they sit within. And so for example, within AIC right now, the equity structure is a little north of 50% in terms of where the equity sits in that cap structure.

Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC

Analyst

So there probably wouldn't be much of a change, do you think? Or could there be, as a result of the FERC ruling that sits [indiscernible]?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

I don't anticipate a significant change in the way we capitalize the business in light of the FERC's ruling.

Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then the ROE, the 50 basis points, when do you see that? I know you guys are going to file for it shortly. When do you see that coming into effect? Would that be when the ROE situation is finally settled?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Well, I think we'll wait and let the filing speak for itself. It is a filing, not only our own filing, but with other transmission owners. And we don't want to get ahead of that filing and what we're asking for there. We do think that this language that was in the recent FERC order reaffirmed that, that adder is appropriate and needed. There's language in there that basically said the adder's intended to incent continued participation in the RTOs. And we think that was favorable language supportive of our view that, indeed, we're eligible for that 50 basis point adder. So that filing was made shortly. And then the FERC, based on history, had taken up consideration of that generally within a 60-day period. So, again, we'll let the filing speak for itself and can certainly answer questions once it's been filed.

Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then finally, on the MISO-PJM or the -- there were several opportunities you guys saw in terms of FERC Order 1000. And one of them was transmission between MISO and PJM, I believe. And I was just wondering if you -- if there were any specific projects that had sort of been identified and sort of the timing that you guys think you might participate in terms of such a project and just any details you have on that or any -- could you just elaborate on that a little bit?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Sure, Paul. And I think, for that question, we'll let Maureen Borkowski, who's the CEO of that business, speak to that question.

Maureen A. Borkowski

Analyst

Paul, this is Maureen. We've been participating actively and proposing project solutions in PJM and in the cross-border MISO PJM solicitations. There's actually a window that's just opened that we'll be continuing to participate in. We've proposed dozens of different solutions to date. There are still, I think, 1 or 2 that are still pending for further consideration. But we're continuing to populate that -- those project proposals as PJM opens study windows. So I'd say just to stay tuned. We certainly continue to participate. And as they go through their refinement process of selecting which products move forward, we expect to have some.

Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC

Analyst

What's the next key data point we should think about, Maureen? In terms -- What do you think would be the next, in terms of timing, we might see more clarity as to what might actually be selected?

Maureen A. Borkowski

Analyst

Well, you'll certainly see the volume of proposals should be public -- the window is open now, so over the next several weeks, more projects will be coming in. After the first of the year, PJM will be doing more refinement in their planning processes, looking at which ones meet their criteria to move forward. So I would say, first quarter of next year, there might be some indication of which projects are moving.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Michael Weinstein with UBS.

Michael Weinstein - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Just a follow-up on some of Paul's questions. Do you guys have any kind of indication or any kind of inclination as to how many -- how much money some of these PJM, MISO and SPP seams issues might cost? What's the size of the opportunity we're looking at here?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Michael, this is Marty. We haven't really spoken to, I'd say, the size of the opportunity broadly. We have said that we've proposed tens of projects in various regions around our service territory, and whether that be with PJM, MISO, SPP, projects ranging anywhere individually from $50 million to $500 million. So we have said that but not really spoken to, I'd say, universally what the breadth of the opportunity is.

Michael Weinstein - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Do you guys think a settlement in the ROE complaint is a possibility?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

The settlement in the ROE, certainly, it's a possibility. We and, I would imagine, other transmission owners certainly plan to take those settlement discussions seriously, and we'll see where they take us. Ultimately, if that process does fail to produce an outcome that is appropriate or, I guess, is reasonable to all parties then, obviously, we'll go to hearing, which would likely take a while. And again, either way, we think, as we said on our prepared remarks, would extend into 2015 and I would say quite possibly beyond, although I think definitely into 2015.

Michael Weinstein - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

And one final question. On the IRP. Can you discuss a little bit about some of the factors that are going into your decision-making on plant retirements? And also, how much of the spending in the IRP that's beyond 2020, how much of that could theoretically and possibly be accelerated into the 2015 to 2020 range?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Yes, sure. This is Marty. I'll take that one again. So on the slide that we provided, on Slide 10, we laid out some of the investments that may be required as we implement our preferred plan that's laid out in the IRP. I would say, generally, with respect to our coal-fired power plants, the goal of the IRP and something we think's appropriate is to be able to run those plants and benefit from that capacity through the end of their useful lives. So that's one of the things that's sort of a foundation of our preferred plan. But along the way, as you see, investing in wind, solar, landfill gas and some hydro projects, as laid out on Slide 10 of our materials, we did break some of the potential capital expenditures down into 2 buckets, one bucket for the next 10 years and then the 10 years beyond that, mainly because the IRP filing is a 20-year look, a 20-year plan. I would say some of the investments that are in that first 10 years are embedded in our current capital expenditure and rate base growth guidance that we've provided. There's some that would be incremental to that. Much of that investment in that 10-year period would fall into the 5-year period beyond the current 5-year period we're in, so basically, rate base growth beyond the current 5-year period. As Warner discussed on the call, to the extent that the EPA's Clean Power Plan was ultimately put into effect in its current form, and of course, Warner spoke to the various legal and practical concerns with that plan, but as we mentioned, if it was put into place, the interim targets by 2020 with ultimate carbon reductions by 2030, we've said that would have potential impact on our customers of $4 billion. It would also require us to invest by 2020 an incremental $2 billion in additional infrastructure and rate base. So, again, we filed our IRP, we're advocating for our preferred plan, but ultimately, we're going to stay flexible and certainly continue to engage in discussions with EPA and other stakeholders around the Clean Power Plan.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Paul Ridzon with KeyBanc.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Is there any -- what's the status of discussions in Missouri about a legislative fix to lag? Is that just kind of dormant right now?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

We'll let -- we have with us this morning, Michael Moehn, who's the CEO of the Ameren Missouri business, and we'll let him provide some comments on that.

Michael L. Moehn

Analyst

Yes, it's certainly not dormant. I mean, we continue to talk to key legislators and key stakeholders about the aging infrastructure issue we have Missouri. As I sit here today, I don't have necessarily a decision on what we're going to do going into this legislative session. But we remain committed to trying to find ways to address that lag, either through the legislative arena or through the regulatory arena. But we definitely are spending a lot of time educating folks about that issue.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And when does the session start up again?

Michael L. Moehn

Analyst

January 2015.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

January. Okay. And then just your 7% to 10% CAGR, how lumpy is that? And is the biggest source of lumpiness kind of Callaway outages?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

No. The 7% to 10% -- this is Marty again. The 7% to 10% growth, obviously, is driven by -- primarily by rate base growth. As you've seen, our rate base growth charted about 6% rate base growth between 2013 and 2018. So I'd say there's a little bit of lumpiness along the way that has to do with the timing of the capital expenditures, there'll be a little bit of lumpiness due to the timing of rate cases, and there'll be a little bit of lumpiness, as you say, along the way in earnings due to the Callaway refueling outage schedules. So we've got one ongoing right now, as we mentioned on the call, we don't have one next year, and then again, in 2018, we would not have one in 2018. So, as you're well aware, on an 18-month cycle for those refueling outages, but certainly there will be a little bit of lumpiness in earnings from year to year for the reasons I described.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And so next year, we should have a $0.09 pickup on Callaway?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Yes, that would be right. So we have a $0.09 negative impact here in the fourth quarter from that refueling outage. There won't be one next year, so we would expect to see a $0.09 pickup for Callaway. And then, as I described in the earnings drivers for next year, I referred you to that slide, there's a number of pluses and minuses for next year, but certainly, that's a plus.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And then just -- you said that next year's tax rate is expected to be 38.5%?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Yes, that's a good point and, I think, an important one. We have an effective tax rate projected for this year of 39.5%. And that compares, last year, we actually, finished the year at about 37.5%. And so in our third quarter and you'll expect in the fourth quarter to have a little bit of a negative delta of this year versus last. But next year, we expect that to trend back to 38.5%, which is, frankly, where our longer-term expectations are. So I think that 38.5% is sort of a good thing to think about in terms of model.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of David Paz of Wolfe Research.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research, LLC

Analyst

I just wanted to check on the sales growth. What was the weather-adjusted sales growth by class in the third quarter? And just what you expect for the full year '14?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Yes, David, that's a very good question. I appreciate you asking, and I'll give you -- it's a bit of a more long-winded answer than you might expect. But I think generally, some positive trends and some positive data that we do have to report. When you look at the sales data in the statistics page, you will see a decline. Of course, part of that is weather, as you point out. But part of it, I think, you've got to remember too, has to do with the energy efficiency programs we have in Missouri. And those energy efficiency programs, we do believe, are very fair, constructive programs where we are made whole for the impacts, the cost and the impacts of that energy efficiency and even, to some extent, are provided incentives. So getting to your question, though, looking at the third quarter data on a weather-normalized basis, the residential and commercial sales were down about 0.8% and the industrial was down about 0.9%, which, on the surface, is not appealing. But when you actually, again, peel that back and you look at, for example, in Missouri, the residential, weather-normalized sales are down 1.1%, but energy efficiency spending and investment is really causing most to that. Excluding the energy efficiency impact, residential sales are actually be up 1%. And again, we're being compensated for that energy efficiency impact. So again, normalized for weather and energy efficiency, up 1%. Commercial sales on a weather-normalized basis -- and these are year-to-date numbers, by the way, that residential number. Commercial sales, weather-normalized, is down about 0.6%. But again, if you exclude the impacts of energy efficiency, it was pretty flat. And then in terms of our industrial sales, you'll recall in Missouri, in the first 2 quarters, we had industrial sales increases…

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research, LLC

Analyst

Great. Very helpful. Just a quick question on the weather impact versus normal year-to-date. Can you just remind me what that is?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Yes. If you look at the Page 18 of our slide deck, year-to-date, the temperatures are having a negative -- excuse me, a positive 2% -- $0.02 versus normal. So year-to-date, again, temperatures, $0.02 positive versus normal.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research, LLC

Analyst

I see. Okay. Got it. And then just last one. Remind me, please, your 7% to 10% EPS CAGR is based off of what year and what number?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

That was based on 2013, David. So that's 2013 through 2018 compound annual growth rate.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research, LLC

Analyst

So is that based just the reported 2013 or is it adjusted for any outages or weather impact?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

No. It's continuing at reported continuing operations. So it is a GAAP number, and it's 2013 through 2018. And I'd say the only thing we've done there is, obviously, taken out discontinued operations.

Operator

Operator

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back to management for closing comments.

Douglas Fischer

Analyst

This is Doug Fischer. Thank you for participating in this call. Let me remind you again that a replay of the call will be available for 1 year on our website. If you have questions, you may call the contacts listed on today's release. Financial analyst inquiries should be directed to me, Doug Fischer. Media should call Joe Muehlenkamp. Our contact numbers are on today's news release. Again, thank you for your interest in Ameren.