Sean Boyd
Analyst · Patrick Chidley, and he is from HSBC
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Q3 2012 conference call. As per usual, we'll go through a short presentation and we've got our full team here and prepared to answer your questions. Please be advised that this presentation does include some forward-looking statements, so we do have our Safe Harbor language available on our website and in the presentation material today. I'd like to start off given the several records that were set in this quarter in thanking our employees for a very continuing strong operating performance again with several record performances. A lot of hard work and a lot of smart planning were behind these record results and again, I'd like to thank our employees for that. As we look out at our positioning and our focus and our strategy, as we've said many times over the last little while, there's no need to change strategy. It's well matched to our skills. It works for us. It's allowed us to create a lot of value over many years. So again, no change going forward in the strategy. As we look at our positioning based on how the assets have performed this year, we truly have a portfolio of mines that continues to perform well. And so when one asset is having difficulties, we're able to make that up with our other assets. This is the first time in many years that we've had everything working, so they're acting like a true portfolio which lowers the risk going forward from a technical and operating perspective. We have growth coming into 2014 and 2015. We'll talk about some of those growth projects going forward being LaRonde, the higher grade and the lower mine; La India, which is under construction; the restart of satellite zones at Goldex and also the expectation that we should continue to do well at Meadowbank, which should drive growth going forward. We continue to be an active explorer largely around our existing assets. We will have an exploration update that'll come out in November which will highlight the work we've been doing over the summer months, and we continue to see growth in our deposits, several of our key deposits. On a strategy side, we continue to look at the small end of M&A opportunities. Our objective is still to try to get in early if we can find the right fit. Geographically, we continue to focus in and around the areas we currently operate. We're looking to leverage off the people skills, so it's a strategy that's not going to increase our political risk profile, which is one of the best in the business. So as we come out of the quarter, we continue to generate strong cash flow. We're looking as we go through the budgeting process and the long-term planning process to strike the right balance between dividend, between exploration funding, between reinvestments in our existing assets and our growth assets. And while doing that, we expect to continue to generate net free cash flow to enhance our financial position, which we did again this quarter. We've announced a couple of personnel changes in the quarter. I'd like to congratulate David Smith, who is now our new CFO, and I'd like to congratulate Picklu Datta, who's the senior VP of Treasury and Finance. We've had a number of changes over the last 9 months from, and the way we look at it is the people that have left us over the last year or so have been a big part of not only our performance and the quality of company we have built, but also were a big part of the culture that we built here, which is a great culture, so we thank them for their efforts. And our job is to look forward over the next 5 to 10 years and we have a lot of bench strength here and that gives us an opportunity to continue to put good people in the right positions to strengthen our business. So that's how we've come at the recent promotions. So again, congratulations to both Dave and Picklu. Moving to the operating results. We had record quarterly production. And if we look out the full year, I think what's really important to note is that essentially, the 5 mines have produced more gold and made up for the absence of the Goldex production after we had to suspend operations there last year. So that's tremendous performance from the remaining 5 mines to make up for what we lost at Goldex. And to do that, we continue, as we said, to get record performance. We saw a record production and throughput at Meadowbank. We'll talk about that a little bit more detail. Record production and really good costs at Kittila. We'll also discuss that in more detail. It seems like every quarter, we continue to get good performance out of our operations in Mexico, extremely low cash costs, sub-$300 in the quarter. That's generated record cash flow for 9 months, almost $600 million for the quarter, about $200 million. As a result of the strong performance, we've upgraded our production guidance again for the second time this year to 1,025,000 ounces, up from 975,000. If we go back and look at where we were at the beginning of the year, we've got questions out there, "Well, you lowballed this, you lowballed that." If you actually look at it, 60% of the increase in guidance from the original number comes from one asset, and that's Meadowbank. The others will likely be within single-digit percentage points of where we expected them to be when we started the year. And when you think back of the challenges and difficulties we had at Meadowbank, we were hopeful when we put together our new mine plan. But until we actually did it, we were unsure whether we could deliver the type of volumes that we've been able to deliver to the plant on a consistent basis, and we were unsure when we started the year whether we could deliver those tonnes at the grades that were suggested in the reserve model given the challenges we had last year in blasting, in dilution, et cetera. And so we were a bit cautious, and I think that cautious -- that conservatism was warranted given the challenges we had last year. We knew that we could process those tons. I think we've been a bit surprised on how quickly the team has responded and the excellent work they've done to be able to maintain consistently that production. Our expectation is we can maintain the throughput next year. We've always talked about Meadowbank in the context of having higher-grade pockets. What we weren't sure of when we started the year is when we got to high-grade pockets with the changes we made were we going to be able to deliver those high grades to the plant. Well, we've proven we could do that. It's variable from quarter-to-quarter. In fact, as we move into Q4, we expect lower grades at Meadowbank, but on balance, an extremely strong year. As we look at Q4, we'll see lower grades at Meadowbank. We see lower grades at Kittila. We see our leach pad being off line for the next few months at Creston Mascota, which is about 4,000 ounces a month, and that really contributes to the full year guidance of 1,025,000 ounces. Looking at 2013, our guidance is unchanged. People say, "Well, you've had such a good year, why don't you increase the guidance for 2013?" Number one, we haven't completed the budget process. We're in the middle of a budget process, but there are some moving parts to 2013. One is a slower transition to the lower mine at LaRonde into the higher grades. We've talked about that for several quarters, so that will result in lower production coming out of LaRonde next year. We will still have lower production in the first half of the year coming out of Creston Mascota. On the plus side, we expect strong performance from Meadowbank. So we need the budgeting process to work through the pluses and minuses to get a better feel for 2013. But we look at 2013 as a building year, as a year where we focus on La India, a new project in Mexico. We visited that project this week. Construction's well-advanced, things are going well there. We look to continue to develop at Goldex to restart the 2 new satellite zones to stay away from that GEZ zone, but to open that up as well. We look for better grades coming out of LaRonde in the future. So we're setting up 2014 and '15 through our efforts and work on developing some of our existing assets and optimizing some of those assets as well. So we'll come out with a full update in February of next year on our 3-year life of mine production and cost forecast. As we look at our mines in detail, as we said, we had several records. But again, I just want to reemphasize that it was across-the-board solid performance from all of our operating assets, which contributed to us being able to replace all of the production that we lost from the Goldex mine. The financial results side, we had, as we said, strong earnings on over -- on a normalized basis of over $0.70, very strong cash flow, so per share performance continued to be very strong. What these financial results have done is allowed us to strengthen our financial position again this quarter. We were able to increase our cash by $30 million to now $320 million. We were able with our long-term debt financing that was done to repay what was drawn under our credit facility, so now we have a fully undrawn credit facility of $1.2 billion. As far as free cash flow, as we look forward on free cash flow, we're expecting, as we've said, capital expenditures between $500 million and $600 million, and given the expected EBITDA net free cash flow, we'll be able to cover that from the existing cash flow generated from the existing mines. As we moved to operations, at LaRonde, we continue to face heat. We continue to face congestion in the lower mine. There's a lack of flexibility in the lower mine and what we've done is come up with a lower-risk mine plan to transition into the higher grade and lower mine. We'll have the details of that in February as we go through the budget cycle. But still, all in all, LaRonde will do it's guidance numbers, still generating significant cash, it's still got an extensive mine life ahead of it of about 15 years. And what we look forward to is an ore that has a value of about 50% higher than what we've been mining over the last year, 1.5 years. So it's still a big contributor for us as a company going forward over the next 10 to 15 years. At Lapa, they continue to have steady quarterly production, continue to manage their costs well in a difficult underground environment. Dilution was also well under control during the quarter. We had some exploration success at Lapa. Our expectations now are that we will be able to continue to mine that deposit into 2016. As we began this year, our expectation was it would end in 2015. So we're in a position to extend that to 2016. At Kittila, record production, almost 50,000 ounces, good costs, costs of around a little less than $500 an ounce so generating good operating profit. We continue to have very good exploration results, that will be part of our exploration update in November. We continue to get good results under Rimpi, where we've had results that are better than the ore reserve grade and good thicknesses, which could potentially impact on a -- in a positive way the economics of that deposit as we move forward. We're studying the initial expansion. We should have the study done by the end of this year. And as we move into 2013, we will be transitioning fully into an underground mine, as a result our cost structure will be higher at Kittila, and we're working through those numbers during the budgeting process right now. At Mexico, as we said in the introduction, they continue to have strong performance, produced over 60,000 ounces at a cash cost in the quarter of $212 an ounce. They had record silver production in the quarter. We did have a movement on our leach pad of ore. As a result, we have suspended operations at that leach pad. We expect to resume production from the Creston Mascota leach pad in the second quarter of 2013, and that roughly accounts for about 4,000 ounces or so a month coming out of the Creston Mascota operation. At La India, construction has gotten off to a very good start, and we're set to add that to our production profile in 2014. At Meadowbank, we had extremely good mining performance and extremely good milling performance in the quarter. In terms of moving waste and ore, we moved on average in Q3 a record 102,000 tonnes per day. If you recall last year, we were struggling to get anywhere close to those targets. So that's something that we're in a comfortable position to continue to do as we move forward. We've seen improvements on maintenance and equipment availability in the quarter up to 79%. Our target was 75%, and that's a lot higher than what it was last year. So that team is doing an extremely good job there. Dilution is where we expected it to be. We've had some positive upgrade on the Goose pit as we've got into some higher-grade areas there, which is important there because we're getting to those areas, and we're able to get that tonnage out without any significant dilution. On the milling performance, we set a record 455 tonnes per hour. That milling performance, we expect to continue into 2013. And we've seen that as we've gone through our budget process, and gone through the performance to date and that's -- we look at that as an opportunity. And I think that's why we're expecting to see continued good performance on an annual basis coming out of Meadowbank as we move forward. As a result of record tonnage, our cost per tonne was in the low 80s, our budget was $96 a tonne. Our cash cost was well below on a unit basis per ounce basis lower than we expected, largely due to the increased production coming into the quarter. As we mentioned, our fourth quarter in the mining sequence will be lower grade, lower-grade cycle, so we'll see that impacted in Q4, and that's reflected in our revised guidance of 1,025,000 ounces. So I think I'd like to end on the Meadowbank and say that we've seen consistently higher operating profit coming out of that mine, as we've seen growing and high operating profit coming out of our Mexican operations, and as we go through the budget, the focus is really an operating profit, how do we maximize our operating profit coming out of these mines. As far as the new slope, exploration update as we mentioned in 2012, for 30 years, we talk about our dividend in December. This will be no different this year as we expect to be able to give a heads up on where we expect our dividend to be in 2013, and in February, our Q4 results, we'll put out our new reserve and resource estimates, and we'll put out our updated 3-year production guidance. So on that, I'd like to turn it over to the callers, operator, and the team would be happy to answer any questions.