Earnings Labs

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO)

Q2 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Sep 2, 2021

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the American Eagle Outfitters Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ms. Judy Meehan. Thank you, ma'am. Please go ahead.

Judy Meehan

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Joining me today for our prepared remarks are Jay Schottenstein, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Jen Foyle, President, Executive Creative Director for AE and Aerie; Michael Rempell, Chief Operating Officer; and Mike Mathias, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin today's call, I need to remind you that we will make certain forward-looking statements. These statements are based upon information that represents the company's current expectations or beliefs. The results actually realize may differ materially based on risk factors included in our SEC filings. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Also, please note that during this call and in the accompanying press release, certain financial metrics are presented on both a GAAP and non-GAAP adjusted basis. Reconciliation of adjusted results to the GAAP results are available in the tables attached to the earnings release, which is posted on our corporate website at aeo-inc.com, in the Investor Relations section. Here, you can also find the second quarter investor presentation. As a note, our second quarter fiscal 2021 results are primarily compared to second quarter fiscal 2020 with comparisons to second quarter fiscal 2019, included where applicable. And now I'll turn the call over to Jay.

Jay Schottenstein

Analyst

Thank you, Judy, and good morning, everyone. I'm very proud to announce a record second quarter, fueled by strong customer demand for our products and brands. Financial results exceeded our expectations. Revenue increased 35% over last year. On a comparable basis, revenue increased 19% to 2019. Sales of $1.2 billion and profits of $168 million were the highest in our history. With our renewed focus entering this year, we are running the business better than ever across the board. As I said in January, we have the best talent in the industry, and these results are clear evidence of that. So I'd like to start by thanking the entire AEO family for this significant accomplishment. Their passion, talent and commitment are taking our brand and company to new heights. As I also said at our January investor meeting, we are on offense, emerging from 2020 with strength and focus. Our real power, real growth plan is our guiding light. I'm very pleased how we are making swift progress on our pillars, putting us ahead of schedule on our financial targets. Today, the team will take you through the details of our performance, but I'd like to start with a few highlights. Aerie just continues to deliver exceptional multiyear growth. As the brand is scaling, we are seeing significant profits flow through. This quarter was one more proof point of the excitement behind this brand. I couldn't be more optimistic about the potential ahead as we make our way to the next $1 billion in revenue. American Eagle is simply proving to be a powerful brand we always knew it was. Its dominant market position, combined with a fresh focus on inventory management, have resulted in the best margins and profits in years. Under Jen's leadership, we energized product and marketing…

Jennifer Foyle

Analyst

Thank you, Jay, and good morning. Wow, what a great quarter. Aerie and AE are 2 of the biggest brands in the market and are delivering truly exceptional results. We are making incredible progress towards the goals we laid out in January. In fact, well ahead of my expectations. We are attracting new customers, and they are spending more than ever. And I'm happy to see those trends carry into the third quarter. Let me start with Aerie. Our leading brand platform combined with product that continues to delight and excite our customers is delivering strong, consistent performance. Revenue in the second quarter rose 34% on top of 32% growth last year. I'm proud to say this marked our 27th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Sales metrics were very healthy. Strong demand led to significantly higher full price sales and we strategically removed promotions. We are also mixing into higher ticket with higher margin items. I'm pleased to report broad-based strength across all product categories, which were all up in the double digits. Core intimates, bralettes and apparel and swimwear saw strong demand. We continue to gain meaningful market share in swimwear as Aerie is becoming a true destination in the category. In May, we launched our Love the Swim You're In TikTok campaign highlighting all the ways to rock your Aerie swim. The content was extremely well received, driving incremental visits and strong conversion. Aerie signature bralettes and leggings are showing incredible growth and also very pleased by the success of our OFFLINE activewear brand, which continues to gain traction. Year-to-date, Aerie's customer file has expanded over 20%. Existing customers are transacting more frequently and spending more. On the marketing front, we continue to focus on giving our customers their own platform in new and innovative ways. We just…

Michael Rempell

Analyst

Thanks, Jen, and good morning, everyone. Our record second quarter results clearly demonstrate the power of our brands and products as well as the strength and agility of our operations. Thanks to our outstanding team of associates and global partners, we were able to successfully navigate through a highly disrupted environment, I can say with confidence that we're running our business better than ever. Investments we've made to strengthen our operation, technologies for all capabilities are yielding material efficiencies and contributed to our record profit performance. Importantly, I believe these benefits are sustainable, and we're going to continue to build on them over time. Beginning with our laser focus on the customer experience. This spring, it was great to see customers return to stores, fueling a 73% increase in store revenues with strong selling across brands. We saw strength across formats at both our factory outlets, and mainline stores saw a healthy growth. Our stores team did a terrific job, welcoming our customers back, and fueling record high conversion. Digital demand also remained very strong, increasing 9% following a 48% increase last year. This channel continues to expand to new heights in both revenue and profitability as we leverage our multiyear investments. Consolidated second quarter digital revenues are up approximately $150 million compared to 2019, with both brands seeing solid expansion. Digital represented 35% of total revenue, up from 25% pre-pandemic. Longer term, we continue to believe that digital is going to represent 50% of our sales. We are continually looking for new technologies to drive better engagement and connect customer shopping experiences across our channels. As consumers reestablish their shopping rhythm post-pandemic, our business model is going to remain flexible in meeting them wherever and however they choose to shop. For example, our mobile sales more than doubled in…

Mike Mathias

Analyst

Thanks, Michael. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report another record quarter, bringing our year-to-date financial results to an all-time high. Our brands continue to demonstrate incredible momentum, driving substantial profit to the bottom line. As we navigate through macro shifts related to COVID, our success has been fueled by the initiatives outlined in our Real Power Real Growth plan back in January. Strong focus on our brands and product innovation, inventory and gross margin optimization and real estate and supply chain initiatives are all having a positive effect on our growth and profitability. Second quarter revenue of $1.2 billion, operating income of $168 million and adjusted EPS of $0.60 marked second quarter records for the company. The operating margin of 14.1% was our highest in 13 years. We also saw nice growth across the business compared to the pre-pandemic 2019 period. Consolidated second quarter net revenue increased 35% versus second quarter 2020. And on a comparable basis, increased 19% to 2019. The reported revenue increase of 15% included a $40 million benefit to revenue in 2019 from a change in our Japan license agreement. Across brands, sales metrics were favorable. Our average unit retail was up over 20%, led by overall strong demand, higher full price sales and fewer promotions. This fueled a double-digit increase in our average transaction value. As customers return to stores, we saw a material increase in traffic trends, which drove a 73% increase in store revenue versus last year. Even with the meaningful shift, digital demand increased 9%, hurdling last year's very strong online demand growth of 48%. Note that second quarter reported digital revenue declined 5% as we lapped elevated sales due to a timing shift in shipments from the first quarter into the second quarter last year. Our digital platform, combined with…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Oliver Chen of Cowen.

Oliver Chen

Analyst

Revenue growth was really solid, but it was below somewhat elevated Street expectations. What are your thoughts on inventory availability across both brands and whether were there pockets where you may not have had enough? And how are you thinking about the ability to chase between back-to-school and holiday, depending on trends? Another follow-up on AirTerra. It sounds very innovative. Would love your rationale for purchasing that in terms of timing and how it may impact your financial algorithm longer term.

Mike Mathias

Analyst

Thanks, Oliver. It's Mike. I'll take the first part of that. I like your description of maybe somewhat elevated revenue. And I think there's a couple of reasons for that. One, I know everyone is facing things on 2019, but there's a couple of points there of back-to-school shift of the July business and tax-free events shifting out of July into August. So I think that's us and others, I think, felt that in July. Our business definitely accelerated into May and June and in the back half of July is -- I think you can attribute it to a back-to-school shift. From an inventory perspective, we are really happy with where we're positioned right now in the third quarter. Pleased with what we saw in August, with inventory being positioned well. And we think we're in a good position for the rest of the quarter and the rest of the year. And I'll probably turn that piece over to Michael in terms of where we are for the rest of the season and the AirTerra part of the question.

Michael Rempell

Analyst

Right, Oliver. So clearly, there's a lot of challenges in supply chain. There's port slowdowns. We have some factories that are closed. Transportation is less predictable. Our team has done a tremendous job there. I mean supply chain transformation has been a huge focus for us. And we're very focused on controlling everything that we can, and there's a lot that's within our control. So we're moving freight faster than ever. We've added carriers. We've secured our capacity. We've moved production out of closed factories wherever possible, and we've diversified the ports we're coming into. And domestically, we've sped up our supply chain by almost 1.5 weeks versus how it was previously and versus how a lot of our competition is. Our goods are coming in, they're going directly to markets and out to stores or to customers. So our supply chain speed is better than ever. As far as chase, we really booked a lot of holiday product early based on the insights that we had from spring, summer and the test that we did for holiday, and we feel good about the assortment that's coming in. So there is volatility, but we're managing through it. We expect that we're going to get all the freight that we want. We're going to have enough product to have a robust holiday season. And we're still chasing product. So we chase product as late as last week, and we expect that we're going to get it for holiday. So there is variability, but we're managing through it, and we feel like we're set up for a great season. As far as AirTerra, we're extremely excited to acquire AirTerra and to welcome their terrific management team into the AE family. AirTerra, if you think about it, it's really a relatively small purchase…

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Paul Lejuez of Citi.

Kelly Crago

Analyst

This is Kelly Crago on for Paul. Thanks for the clarity on the shift with back to school. Just curious if you could provide a little bit more detail on what you're seeing quarter-to-date than for back-to-school trends just how those are looking. And then just secondly, on the $600 million in operating income this year is very impressive, but it does imply a step down in EBIT margin expansion in the back half of the year versus the first half. So just curious if that's going to be free or are you assuming a more promotional environment? Any color there would be helpful.

Jennifer Foyle

Analyst

Kelly, it's Jen. And just let me know if everyone can hear me. Greetings from London, the U.K. I'm over here, so I hope everyone can hear me well. Look. We're really pleased with the results. Certainly, if you look into the back-to-school season, it's a tale of 2 stories. Last year, AE really delivered their new goods for September. And Aerie had a new delivery, starting with the launch of OFFLINE in July. Now keep in mind all the shifts that are happening. Aerie, for instance, has more of a Northeast and Eastern Coast penetration. So they were impacted more by some of these shifts into August and certainly, the later Labor Day. AE was really able to ride the storm. And from what I see in both brands, I see strength. Look, American Eagle, we dominate investment. I've never seen a better assortment. And certainly, I haven't seen a better team executing to a strategy that I think is top-notch. Our denim looks phenomenal. I just got out of a testing meeting last week, looking forward into the future. This is a team that doesn't stop, and we look ahead. We dominate in demin. We've certainly executed to the new trends. And these are all tailwinds. We're currently driving new fashion silhouettes in both men's and women's. And look, they're checking, and we're going to get more impressive there as we look ahead. I just saw the holiday review for some of the new shoots in American Eagle and Aerie. It's very optimistic. It's addressing what these customers want. And just moving on to Aerie, look, do I need to reiterate 20 segment exact consecutive quarters of double-digit comps. I mean do the math, it's almost 7 years. I don't see a lot of retailers delivering comps like…

Mike Mathias

Analyst

Yes. Kelly, just to expand on the $600 million, totally freight related, nothing to do with the slowdown in demand, nothing to do with anything else we're executing in terms of gross margin expansion or operating rate expansion. Likely would have been higher, if not for the freight and transportation costs that we're embedding into the back half of the year here. Look, we're being aggressive. We're going to incur these costs to make sure that our customer doesn't feel any difference during holiday to their experience. We believe it's definitely short term, and we'll be coming out in January with our longer -- with what we think will be a significant increase to our longer-term profit targets.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Jay Sole of UBS.

Jay Sole

Analyst

Great. Maybe, Jen, can you just talk a little bit about Aerie and some of the different new category opportunities? You mentioned OFFLINE. But just can you give us -- elaborate a little bit more about where you're seeing the growth, whether it's obviously the core of underwear or just beyond?

Jennifer Foyle

Analyst

Yes, sure. Like I mentioned upfront -- can you hear me now. Sorry, I had a little technical difficulty. Jay, Yes, for sure. As I mentioned, all categories in Q2, we saw gains in every category. In fact, all categories delivering around double-digit comps and growth. So really pleased with those results. Certainly, bralettes are key category for us. And the good news is they're not only wearing them in. They're wearing them out now. So we're definitely addressing that trend as we look forward. Undies are trending nicely. We've continued to pull back on our promotional cadence in undies, and we're seeing strong results there. Flee's and sweats, especially when you look at a matching set, that's still trending for us. So we're going to continue to address that trend. And look, leggings are core in the OFFLINE business. And keep in mind, we still sell that product within Aerie. As we grow OFFLINE, we will start to sort of separate the results. But right now OFFLINE leggings are sold underneath the Aerie umbrella, and they're definitely our #1 category or up there after intimate. So we could not be more thrilled with that business. And we're going to continue to dominate there and innovate there. We have some really great ideas for the future, and this team continues to strategize around the OFFLINE business and how, again, we can differentiate because that will be key to really be top of mind for our customers in the future. So the trends are looking solid. And again, for a business, I have a few things to continually drive comp 7 years, almost double digits year after year, we have to ride with the change, right? So I know everyone is very curious about an outside trend that's happening and people going out again. And look, we've managed to ride those storms as well in Aerie, where we dominate on some of our other categories. Swim, for sure, is a go-to destination for Aerie. And I've seen the assortments for spring and summer. They are strong. And that's a go-to. That's almost like what our girl is wearing out in the spring and summer season. So again, we're going to continue to navigate and drive what's working in our business for the future and remain nimble.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Marni Shapiro of Retail Tracker.

Marni Shapiro

Analyst

Congrats on the -- it sounds like a great denim start back to school. Jay, could we talk a little bit about denim? You guys are now, I guess, depending on the category, the #1 or #2 denim player. I guess how do you think about growing that business further from where it is with this AirTerra, you're working with third parties, would you consider wholesaler white label of your denim business to support a third party? Would you consider a premium line or premium brand under the AEO Inc. banner? I'm just curious what your thought is because you're clearly a very powerful player in denim. So strategy-wise, how do you take that to the next level beyond just American Eagle.

Michael Rempell

Analyst

As we always said, and the statistics show it, we are the #1 brand between the 15- to 25-year old. We are the #1 brand for baby's denim in the country. If you look at our lineup, you'll see that we keep introducing new and new washes, new finishes and new and new higher price point goods too and better quality. It's a little premature, but we'll have a probably announcement in a few weeks about a new denim brand. Because you asked the question, we are working on a new brand concept that will be introduced in the next 3 weeks.

Marni Shapiro

Analyst

That's very exciting. It seems like the right thing given the denim platform.

Michael Rempell

Analyst

That's right. But this is something that we've been working on for the last 12 months. We're about to open our first test stores in the next 30 days.

Marni Shapiro

Analyst

Great. Congratulations. Looking forward to seeing that.

Jay Schottenstein

Analyst

And the good news about our denim is, we have plenty done in the cell. We don't see any, any, any problems for the fall for getting all the data. All the factories produce our denim are running. We're getting shipments on a regular basis. We have plenty of air capacity. One thing we've done is in the last 2 years, the internal model of this company has been logistics, logistics, logistics. We've invested in our logistics system, as Mike was talking about. We have other investments that they have been made that are also being made as we're talking. We think we put together a world class, not a good class. Michael didn't go into people's backgrounds. We think we have some of the best logistics people in the United States, period. And what we have accomplished. It's the most amazing thing is, is our cost of getting the goods to our stores. For the last several months has been less than it was a year ago or 2 years ago. I don't know another retailer that can make that statement that their cost of getting the goods to their stores is less than it was before. With all the current cost today and all the cost increase, they will bring it. The cost is an amazing accomplishment and our logistics team is world class that have done that. So we're very proud of that. We've done things that other retailers haven't done because we know the future of this business is going to be not just the marketing and the merchandising and running great stores. It's going to be how you operate the whole flow. And if you don't do it efficiently, you'll get deep. The pandemic is just speeded up everything. A lot of these things that…

Marni Shapiro

Analyst

That's fantastic. And maybe just a follow-up on that conversation about your logistics with the AirTerra acquisition. Does that allow you guys to step up your buy online, pick up in store and that element of the business so you could even further integrate your online business with your in-store business? Is that part of the strategy here? And can it make that part more efficient?

Jay Schottenstein

Analyst

Yes. It is. This past year, we talked about our notes. A couple of years ago, they came with the concept and showed me what they thought the future should look like. And all of a sudden, the pandemic started, and within 4 weeks, we had 5 or more reestablished. It's an amazing job they did a year ago. This would give us the ability. In many markets, they will get same-day delivery to the stores, the same-day delivery to the customers, being able to respond right away. We're testing technology that we're working out right now that, in our stores, we can follow every item. If something is missing, we'll know immediately and be able to fill at the same day so we can always be 100% in-stock level.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Matthew Boss of JPMorgan.

Matthew Boss

Analyst

So maybe on gross margin, so both first and second quarter, more than 500 basis points above 2019. Is there anything structurally preventing similar performance in the third quarter? And Mike, do you view this as a baseline for gross margin for which to build on as we think about this year? Or are there any areas of give back for us to consider as we think about gross margin beyond this year?

Mike Mathias

Analyst

Thanks, Matt. I'll answer the second part first. Yes. And you're describing it accurately. This is a new baseline to start from. So I think if you go back to our target for 10% operating margin, we talked about gross margin being in the high 30s, right? And I think we're exceeding those expectations. So I think, yes, as we talk about our targets again in January and probably what our new operating rate target will be, which will definitely be higher than 10%, probably more like the mid- to -- low to mid teens operating rate. I think the new gross margin baseline is this 40% on an annual basis. So yes, we've exceeded that in the first couple of quarters. We don't see any structural reasons why this is a 1 quarter or 2 quarter and done phenomenon. Is it going to be something that is the new baseline go forward.

Matthew Boss

Analyst

Great. And then maybe just a follow-up on the top line. As we think about back-to-school timing and the shifts that you mentioned, just to be clear and relative maybe to the second quarter, which was up mid-teens relative to 2019, is it fair to say that August has accelerated? It seems like that's what you're speaking to. And then maybe just any color on the third quarter, meaning sales growth maybe relative to mid-teens growth that you saw in the second quarter. Any way to help on August and third quarter?

Mike Mathias

Analyst

Yes. I mean, I'll hit the first half of the year again. So I think we were up 17% in Q1 2019. If you normalize for that [ Sumikin ] payment, if you're comparing to '19. For the second quarter, we're actually up 19%, so we actually did pick up a few points from Q1 to Q2. The bigger point I'll make though is that if you go back in history, and our revenue number in 2019 was a record for the company, but I think at that point, we weren't happy with the profit we were generating from that revenue, and that all goes back to unhealthy inventory levels, too many SKUs, too many choices. We bought revenue. So we are -- as much as we're looking at the same compared to 2019 you are, we're not focused on that because I think we are creating a new revenue baseline as well. And we are focused fully on profit generation, cash flow generation on the revenue we're seeing. We're focused on flowing through these phenomenal area growth. That will be a continuation. That will be baked into our targets. We come back out with in January. So I guess to answer the August question, it's a little bit apples to oranges. We're very -- we're happy with what we saw in August. It's on path to what we were expecting. It's built into our guidance. And like I said earlier, the guidance would have been higher without the incremental freight and transportation costs. So we're focused on profit. We're focused on operating rate. Revenue is obviously part of that. But these maniacal compares to history that probably doesn't matter as much anymore is something we're not focused on as much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Dana Telsey of Telsey Advisory Group.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Jay, you mentioned logistics and the strength of logistics. Do you see other acquisitions coming into the fold going forward that would continue to enhance your logistics abilities and potentially even drive the operating margin higher? And then just lastly, as you think about the holiday season, with the extension of back-to-school, how do you see the timing and planning for the cadence of holiday this year?

Jay Schottenstein

Analyst

To your first question, yes. About the acquisitions, yes.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

And what kind of framework would you want there? What are the -- what other qualities could be beneficial?

Jay Schottenstein

Analyst

It's -- we are working on something. I can't go into details, but there'll be an announcement probably in the next couple of months.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Got it. And then just...

Michael Rempell

Analyst

I mean, Dana, we're looking for -- everything we're doing is focused on providing scale and speed and cost benefit and customer service benefit for the American Eagle business. But clearly, there's a lot of opportunity with what's happening in supply chain today. There's a lot of disruption, but with that disruption creates a lot of opportunity. And like Jay was saying, it used to be that just if you had great brands and you had great products, you won. In today's world, that's not the case. There's a bifurcation happening in retail, where it's not just great brands, it's not just great products, but you need incredibly efficient, agile, fast operations. So AirTerra fits that mold. It's going to service the American Eagle business well. It's going to service other retailers well. It's going to be a very successful profitable company on its own. And we are looking for other opportunities of companies that fit that mold.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Got it. And then the cadence of holiday, how you're thinking about it?

Jennifer Foyle

Analyst

I can answer that, if you want. Look, I think we keep on leaning on logistics here because I think it's mission-critical. I'm getting the goods where the customer demand is in today's world. We're looking at countries thinking about shutting down again. We could go into a lockdown again, who knows? God forbid. So again, the demand could change versus direct or in stores, and that's what we're prepared to address as a team. Where our customers at, we're going to provide the product for them. Certainly, with a little bit of a leadership back-to-school, I think we're going to feel a little bit of that as we move along month-to-month. And then I would say, though, I do think gifting could happen early again with all this in mind similar to last year. So I think the team is ready to address that.

Jay Schottenstein

Analyst

Yes. Jen, I'll also add something to the data. We believe that this will be an earlier Christmas shopping, your holiday shopping. What we believe is that from our standpoint, we are planning merchandise. We'll have a lot of great merchandise to choose from. But we believe that there are going to be problems out there for other retailers. We see there could be shortages of goods out there in the fall, not just for apparel, but you go out today, anything, you want to buy cars, you have a shortage of cars right now. You want to buy furniture, there's shortage of furniture out there. So anything you want to buy out there, there's shortages. You want to go build a house, it takes longer to build a house and it costs you a lot more money. So for those people, those retailers who are able to get their merchandise on a timely basis, it's going to be a big opportunity. And we feel we're in great position. We're going to have great selection in our store, and it's going to be an exciting place to shop, and it's going to be a great online experience. We're introducing -- would be the first synergies in the United States live retailing on our app is being introduced right now. So we're very optimistic, and we feel in a position that as far as the inventory is going to be, that it's going to be -- it's going to differentiator us from everybody, and it's going to be a big opportunity. And we're going to get more money for our goods because it's going to sell or if that could be a promotional, which is good. I think when you could sell merchandise and get paid for your effort and give good value to the customer and give them a great product. It's a win for everybody. And we'll have goods. And that's the key, having the right merchandise and having goods, we will have goods. When Michael was talking about logistics, we already had reserved air freight that we bought up. So if there is excess air freight, we'll be selling it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Adrienne Yih of Barclays.

Adrienne Yih-Tennant

Analyst

Yes. My question is this is such a different company today versus 2 years ago. And I know you've gone through all the reasons why. But as we look at that sort of the early look toward the low to mid-teens, I mean, we haven't seen those types of margins for pre-2008. And I'm just wondering, last 2 quarters, you've kind of sort of in line with the Street expectations, but I'm wondering if the Street from our perspective needs to appreciate on a 2-year basis at 14% over '19 at 7% for each year, how should we think about the algorithm of top line growth? Should it be mid- to high single digits with low double-digit EPS on growth, leverage growth to the bottom line. Because it really sounds like you are driving this business for quality sales at higher and higher profits. And then, Mike, my second follow-up question is can you quantify in basis points the freight impact to Q2 what's embedded for the second half? And how much have you been able to offset that with AIR increases?

Mike Mathias

Analyst

Adrienne, I think you just told the story for me a bit. But yes, so I think the -- this is a different company, a different focus. We're not chasing revenue targets. We're very focused on -- I guess what I could say is if you think about the 2 brands, we're looking at Aerie at a 30% plus CAGR continuously, AE some modest growth. So we saw a plus 5% increase in 2019 in the second quarter, again, normalizing for that payment.

Jay Schottenstein

Analyst

But Mike, you saw a tremendous growth in margin dollars at the American Eagle side.

Mike Mathias

Analyst

That's where I'm headed. So I think when I talk about 2019 baseline and the fact we drove a lot of unhealthy sales, it was the AE brand. It wasn't Aerie. So we are -- we have changed the business model. We're operating differently. Inventory is healthy top line. So to be honest with you, they hit a 5% over '19 for the AE brand. With that is a new record again because 2019 was a record. I'm actually ecstatic about the fact that we're driving similar to higher revenue with this income flow through that we're seeing. I mean it's an amazing baseline that we're creating here. So for the go forward, I think we're looking at probably a modest top line growth in AE, 30% plus CAGR in Aerie continuing, and the focus is the flow through on both the -- the revenue from both brands. So when you think about operating margin going forward, I think we'll be coming out in January talking about -- and this is just round numbers, 40% gross margin low to mid-20 SG&A, 3 to 4 points of DNA, and a new target that's in the low to mid-teens for operating rate. And maybe exceeding that as we continue to optimize how we're flowing through, especially Aerie's revenue growth. And we have some other growth stories we'll probably be telling, too. We hit on Mexico a bit in our prepared remarks, and we think there's some other international opportunity that we can flow through at a very healthy rate as well. On the freight costs, Adrienne, that's a moving target every day. We think we have, in our guidance, accounted for everything we know to date, it could get better. So we're going to see how that comes to fruition. But as we all been saying, our intent is we're going to be aggressive on getting our product here and making sure the customer does not feel any difference from us in holiday. And I think that can be a competitive advantage. We all do. But it's a bit of a moving target, so it's hard for me to give you the exact basis points. So I'll just say it's embedded in our $600 million for now and again, could get better.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Schottenstein for closing comments.

Jay Schottenstein

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. First of all, I want to say I'm very proud of a great team that we've been able to assemble, whether it's in the marketing, whether it's in the merchandising, design, store operations, logistics side, we have world-class players that we were able to attract and still attract that type of caliber. So we're very excited about that. As we said early, we worked hard to make better product, get better selections of the customers. And we can see it in the improvement of the performance, whether it be American Eagle. And as Jen emphasized, 27 straight double-digit comp quarter increases for Aerie. I don't know another retailer, if we go back on 7.5 years, almost 8 years, who can say every quarter, a double-digit comp growth and still growing double-digit comp growth. So -- and have a new exciting brand like OFFLINE I'd like to introduce now too, that have that potential to grow like Aerie. So we're excited about that. We're very excited about the other brands that we'll talk later about whether it be for [ Outsider ], whether it be Unsubscribed, whether it be the new denim concept, we see a lot of opportunities for us. And the other thing is we had our Investor Day last January. We gave a 3-year strategy a little bit. We realized when we gave that 3-year profit strategy that in the same year, we'd already be breaking the 3-year strategy. It puts us almost 3 years ahead, and we'll have another Investor Day, probably next January. We'll reset the goal for the next 3 years, and we're very optimistic. And as we said, we're very well positioned for back-to-school. We like the way [ the months ] has started. We like the way September is starting, and we're very excited for the second half of the year. And we think that the systems that we have in place and what we have going on for us will differentiate us from everybody else. And at the end of the day, we have to be different than everybody else. We have product the customer loves. We have great brands with great loyalty. We didn't talk about it. We really do drive this back, but the -- but our strategy and marketing and the relaunch of our loyalty program, we had the largest enrollment of royalty members that this company has ever seen in the last few months. So we're very optimistic about the second half. So we want to thank everyone for their support. And I'm going to just tell you, this team is laser-focused. And like Jen says, we're humble, and we just know we got to keep driving and driving it and keep the innovation, technologies and be able to put it all together. And we push ourselves. This is a great team we have. So thank you for all your support.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your interest in American Eagle Outfitters. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.