Earnings Labs

The AES Corporation (AES)

Q1 2011 Earnings Call· Mon, May 9, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome and I'd like to thank you all for holding. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is also being recorded. If we have any objections, you may disconnect. I'd now like to turn the call over to Joel Abramson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

Joel Abramson

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone, to the AES Corporation's First Quarter Earnings Call. We appreciate your being with us this morning. Joining me today are Paul Hanrahan, our President and CEO; Victoria Harker, our Chief Financial Officer; Andres Gluski, our Chief Operating Officer; and other senior members of our management. Before we begin our presentation, let me remind you that our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a complete discussion of these risks, we encourage you to read our documents on file with the SEC. Our presentation is being webcast, and the slides are available on our website, which you can access at www.aes.com under Investor Relations. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Paul Hanrahan, our CEO. Paul?

Paul Hanrahan

Analyst

Thanks, Joel, and good morning to you, all of you joining us today. Today, I'll briefly comment on our financial performance during the first quarter of 2011 and also recap key highlights of our recent announcement regarding our acquisition of DPL. After Victoria reviews the first quarter results in more detail, I'll give an update on our project center construction, as well as progress on the advanced development pipeline beyond DPL. The results for the first quarter of 2011 were in line with our expectations. We earned $0.22 of adjusted EPS during the quarter and proportional free cash flow of $159 million. These results were driven by the demand growth in Latin America, which helped to offset some of the negative variances that we had anticipated. There are 2 material ones which I'd like to highlight. One was our Generation business in the Philippines, where volumes declined due to the market returning to a more normal environment with more capacity being available to the market. As you may recall, we benefited significantly last year by having our plant available when many of our competitors were suffering from outages. 2010 was an exceptional year in that regard. Another factor related to one of our Northern Ireland plants, Kilroot, where the PPA was terminated in late 2010 in accordance with its terms. So we saw lower prices as a result of the plant selling on a merchant basis, and neither of these results was unexpected. Looking forward to the remainder of the year, as you can see on Page 19 of the investor presentation, both earnings and cash projections will increase throughout the year as our 1,700 megawatts of construction projects come online during the latter part of the year. So we are on track and continue to expect a strong balance…

Victoria Harker

Analyst

Thanks, Paul, and good morning, everyone. As Paul mentioned, the first quarter results are in line with our expectations and consistent with operating trends and construction timelines we have previously incorporated in our 2011 guidance. We expect a strong rest-of-year, driven primarily by new construction coming online in Chile adjusted EPS by year end. This includes $0.02 from Maritza, with staged commissioning over the rest of this year. Although both adjusted earnings and cash flow during the first quarter of 2011 are lower than during the same period last year, this is a result of several drivers, some of which we've previously outlined. For example, this is the first year of our Northern Ireland business, Kilroot, operating without a PPA, as Paul mentioned. Also, while the Philippines has continued to show demand growth of 3% to 4%, system-wide capacity has recovered from 2010 levels as other market generators have increased their availability, which dampens Masinloc's beneficial impact on the portfolio this year when compared to last. In addition, as has been the case with many companies during this earnings cycle, we continued to be exposed to commodity price fluctuations, as certain businesses, such as Yangcheng, our coal fire plant in China, had significant increase to coal prices with no commensurate increase to tariff rates has put pressure on our earnings there. To that end, this is not a new trend, and unfortunately, but we're co-managing those carefully. In the first quarter of 2011, we've moved our Eastern Energy business into discontinued operations, as we had anticipated in our 2011 guidance. Outside of these factors, our operating performance has been quite solid. In Chile, we saw higher volumes driven by market demand. In addition, we were able to procure Liquefied Natural Gas for our Esso plant [ph], which last year had…

Paul Hanrahan

Analyst

Thanks, Victoria. Now what I'll do is I'll just give you a quick update on the construction and those development projects that are in advanced stages of development. Our construction pipeline showed good progress during the first quarter with approximately 1,700 megawatts expected to come online by the end of 2011. And over 95% of our current construction pipeline will be under long-term contract. Maritza, which is our 670 megawatt coal-fired plant in Bulgaria, remains our priority in 2011, and we've taken significant steps to resolve the issues there. Commissioning is underway, with plans to obtain full design capacity by year end. AES has assumed control of the construction process, while the disputes with our contractor have been submitted to arbitration. Commercial operation, initially at a reduced capacity, is anticipated during the second quarter. Additionally, last week, we successfully concluded the final 1-unit, 72-hour capacity test at 210 megawatts net. This follows a similarly successful 2-unit, 72-hour test at 420 megawatts net. Turning to Latin America. We continue to make strong progress towards our schedule to commission approximately 720 megawatts of capacity in 2011. Our 518-megawatt Angamos coal-fired plant in Northern Chile, which is located in the copper mining region, has fully commissioned Unit 1 ahead of schedule, with Unit 2 on schedule for the second half of 2011. In Panama, our 223-megawatt Changuinola hydroelectric project is nearing completion, with the dam and powerhouse at approximately 95% complete. Commissioning and commercial operation are expected in the second half of 2011. Campiche, our 270-megawatt coal-fired project in Chile, has restarted construction since obtaining the favorable ruling from the Supreme Court of Chile regarding the construction permits in January. There are currently over 1,200 workers on site, all major pieces of equipment are on site as well, and the project is scheduled…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Gregg Orrill from Barclays Capital.

Gregg Orrill - Barclays Capital

Analyst

I was wondering if you could comment a little more on the cost reduction initiatives that you were going to talk about at the conference, maybe what kind of information we should be looking for? Will it be very far enough along on the work to provide some targets at that point?

Victoria Harker

Analyst

This is Victoria. Gregg, I think some of the efforts that I had outlined in my comments, I think, are far enough along. We've been looking at them, particularly on the transaction processing piece, as well as some of the automation efforts on the financial platform. We can likely give some ranges of potential opportunities there. Others are certainly newer to the system, and we'll probably have more color in terms of where they might be applicable, so you can figure out how to model that what the opportunity might be. But I'm not sure over the next 10 days we'll have it exactly boiled into our long-term forecast. But there, as I mentioned, in the color commentary, there are bigger areas of opportunity like procurement, sourcing, non-commodity purchases across the entire platform. So it's a fairly pervasive effort.

Andres Gluski

Analyst

This is Andres. There are a lot of efforts which are already underway, though this is really an acceleration. So for example, global sourcing, we've chosen those items, which are really big-ticket items like solid fuel, et cetera, and we have had rolled that out. We also have cost savings projects on each individual business, and this includes, for example, a major effort which we call creating value in Brazil. This is a large program, which is underway now.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Russo from Ladenburg Thalmann. Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc.: Just a follow-up on the last question on the cost reductions. Are those cost reduction initiatives excluded from your current '11 and '12 financial guidance?

Victoria Harker

Analyst

They are excluded right now from '11 and '12, because we're looking at what kind of severance might be applicable as well. Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc.: And then could you just be a little bit more specific on the merger approval process with the DPL acquisition, and specifically, when do you expect the Utility Commission of Ohio to review and reach a decision?

Paul Hanrahan

Analyst

Brian Miller, our General Counsel will address that question.

Brian Miller

Analyst

Yes, we're on track, pursuant to our agreement, in the merger agreement to file all of our necessary filings by May 19 of this month, obviously. It may slip a few days. We still expect to reach approval, end of this year or early in the first quarter of 2012. Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc.: Any idea when you think the commission will review it? I think maybe on the day of the announcement, you mentioned that, that approval might come last.

Brian Miller

Analyst

We fully expect that PUCO, which is the public commission there, to come last. Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc.: So maybe fourth -- end of third, maybe fourth quarter type of review?

Brian Miller

Analyst

End of fourth quarter, first quarter of next year, early first quarter of next year. Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc.: Okay, great. And then lastly, I think you mentioned the 1,700 megawatts to come online throughout this year is about $0.06 to $0.08, but could you just quantify the absolute total EPS impact? Because obviously, we're not getting a full year in 2011 for these assets.

Andres Gluski

Analyst

Sorry, Brian, I think that the reference of the $0.06 to $0.08 is this year.

Victoria Harker

Analyst

That is the --

Paul Hanrahan

Analyst

That is not the one...

Victoria Harker

Analyst

Right, that is the impact in 2011 of those, as they come up in the timing that we outlined. Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc.: Right, could you be more specific in the timing then? Maritza, you said near your end. Is this a fourth quarter event?

Andres Gluski

Analyst

No, I mean, in the sense of Maritza, as Paul mentioned in his speech, we, shortly, we'll -- we have passed the capacity test for 420 megawatts net out of a potential of 600. So for Maritza, this is a Q2 event of this year in terms of getting up to 420, and then the plan is to take it up to 600 from now until the end of the year. Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc.: I understand. Then Angamos and Changuinola, anything more specific than 2H 2011?

Andres Gluski

Analyst

In the case of Angamos, we have one of the 2 units is already selling energy, and we expect the second one to come on by Q3 of this year for the full 518 megawatts. In the case of Changuinola, we are in the stage right now of putting in the stop logs. We'll start flooding the reservoir next week, and we expect that to be online in the second half of this year.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Ali Agha from SunTrust.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Could you provide an update on where you stand on the sale process with the New York coal plants? I see that they are a discontinued item, assuming they were the only item in that $0.02 discontinued loss. And I think you have previously said by mid-year, you'd have a good read on that, and if the sale doesn't happen or the prices don't come in as expected, what would be the alternatives we should be looking at for those plants?

Paul Hanrahan

Analyst

I think where we stand is we've put some bids out. We've gotten the indicative bids for now in discussions with a few of the parties. That's probably going to go on for several more months during their due diligence phase. So I think the idea that we'll have a better feel for this sometime in the middle of the year is probably about right. We, right now, believe it's very likely we're going to be able to sell these, sell the plants. In terms of what we do if for some reason we can't get that done, this would, I guess we could complete the settlement, flip back into continued operations. But it's our intent to sell these, just because we think that, just from an earnings standpoint, it's much more attractive to us.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

And Paul, you mentioned and you reminded us that for DPL, you resumed the $0.05 to $0.07 of accretion in 2012. As you look beyond that, should we assume that's a good run rate to think about on an annual basis, 2013 and beyond? Well, in your mind, what could be some of the positives or negatives that could move that number from that '12 base?

Paul Hanrahan

Analyst

Well, we're not going to be able to provide a whole lot of detail on the out years, because it's -- we don't give that kind of forward-looking guidance. But I do think we expect to see those margins to expand, and it really comes, I think, from just if you look at the forward curves for gas in the merchant pricing, we see some upside there. So we think -- we expect to see that number increase solely over time.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, and last question, more near term. Q1 on an adjusted basis, you were down about $0.06 year-over-year. Your guidance still has you up for the year. You highlighted the contribution from the new plants and construction, the New York plants not being in there, obviously, helps. Would you remind us are there other major deltas, positive or negative, to think about other than share count that drives the full year '11 versus '10 given how Q1 came out?

Andres Gluski

Analyst

I think that there's -- one of the drivers is that we have a lot of major maintenance outages in the first half of the year. So as plants come fully online in the second half. So we have the new plants, and we'll have more of the existing plants coming online as well in the second half of the year, and it's also in keeping with our seasonality.

Victoria Harker

Analyst

The only other piece I would add in this, more in terms of the timing is the cash receipt for some of the insurance proceeds. For example, we have the impact of the repair work, which was a hit to earnings in the first quarter, but has not yet received the business interruption insurance. So that will obviously flow through cash.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Right, and the outages in the first half, even on planned outages, and these are greater this year than they were last year from a timing perspective?

Andres Gluski

Analyst

Yes, they were. Basically, 2011, if you look at our maintenance CapEx, is a heavy year, and it's just when the plant came due.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Brian Taddeo from Gleacher & Company.

Brian Taddeo - Broadpoint Capital

Analyst

Just a quick follow-up question on your earlier comments on Eastern. Your comments on that you would likely sell this, do you -- would you think you're likely to be able to sell with this current structure in place, with the lease structure, or is it more likely to be sold having to sort of restructure that facility?

Paul Hanrahan

Analyst

Yes, probably can't comment on that. We're having those discussions right now at the various parties, and we're having those conversations with our lenders. So I really can't comment on that at this call.

Brian Taddeo - Broadpoint Capital

Analyst

Then just on your comment on putting it back in continued ops? Should we read into that, that if it would have to be sold through some sort of restructuring, you'd rather put it back in operations and support it rather than to sell it through that fashion, or is that -- am I reading too much into that?

Victoria Harker

Analyst

This is Victoria. I think Paul was just referring to the accounting treatment relative to our plants, if for some reason we run out of string on that. But as long as we're continuing the dialogue, I think that's the expectation.

Paul Hanrahan

Analyst

Yes.

Brian Taddeo - Broadpoint Capital

Analyst

And just one other one. Can you give us kind of where the negotiations stand with the banks and renewing those 2 facilities? And if there's anything borrowed under the facility including what the cash situation looks like there?

Paul Hanrahan

Analyst

I just don't have the details on that, unfortunately.

Brian Taddeo - Broadpoint Capital

Analyst

Do you know when the numbers will be published for Eastern? I think they're even lacking for fourth quarter. Do you know when those will be out?

Paul Hanrahan

Analyst

I don't think we have the specifics. They should be out soon, but no particular details on the dates.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] At this time, I show no further questions. I'd like to turn it over to Paul Hanrahan.

Paul Hanrahan

Analyst

Thanks, operator. Before we end this call, I'd just like to reiterate a few of the key points we have discussed. One, we're off to a good start to the year. The first quarter performed as expected. Our targets for the year continue to look good. Two, our construction program is progressing well with 1,700 megawatts coming online this year. And then third, liquidity remains strong. Even with the DPL transaction, we expect to be able to continue to grow in ways that our value will be accretive to our shareholders. Thanks again for joining our call today. We look forward to seeing you at our Investor Day on May 19 in New York. Goodbye, have a good day. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

At this time, I would conclude today's conference. You may disconnect, and thank you for your attendance.