Eric M. Kirsch - Aflac, Inc.
Management
Yes, but not in a dramatic fashion, because we too don't see an event vis-à-vis credit markets, even despite equity markets that would terribly impact from a credit standpoint and the quality standpoint. We don't see anything probably for another year and a half. Having said that, what we are thinking about and acting on as an example is when we look at our traditional credit book, like investment-grade bonds, the high-yield bonds, the old yen private placements, which are much less reduced from years ago, but nevertheless, we still own them, we are saying to ourselves well, to the extent we see something in 2020 and we are not calling for a major sell-off, but a change of the credit cycle, are there credits that we'd rather not own? Because in that market environment, they'll start to deteriorate around the edges. So, we have been doing some de-risking, particularly some old yen private placements throughout the year. And year-to-date, we've de-risked about $1 billion of positions. Again, nothing that raises an alarm for us, it's just good hygiene. You want to be better positioned when the credit cycle turns. The other part of the portfolio I would call out is in our middle market loan portfolio. We have definitely seen a lot of money chasing those types of deals. It's well written about in the press. Our production this year has been a little slower than we expected, because we are upholding our credit underwriting standards. There are a lot of players in the market that are loosening those; because they've committed to their investors, they're going to buy those assets. Well, we've not taken that view and we're in the middle now of planning for next year as we go through what we call our silver and gold plan here internally and we have to think about on the investment side deployment, and particularly to private markets like the floaters where we've made a commitment. So, in the middle market loan space, just from a standpoint of planning, we're planning to be more conservative with respect to how much we might actually be able to underwrite and deploy. Having said that, the other part of our floating rate portfolio transitional real estate, we still find very good relative value. Spreads have come in somewhat, but that market has not been as hot, if you will, as the middle market loan space. So, we see that as a place to potentially offset some of the lower deployment in middle market loans. But to your question, John, around the credit environment, those are the two areas I would focus in on where we are making adjustments. That will have minor impacts to net investment income, they are not major. But when that credit cycle turns, the actions we take today will serve us well at that point in time.