Earnings Labs

Afya Limited (AFYA)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 31, 2022

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Transcript

Renata Costa Couto

Management

Thank you for joining us for AFYA's fourth-quarter in the full-year 2021 conference call. With me on the call today is AFYA's CEO, Virgilio Gibbon and Luis Andre Blanco our CFO. During today's presentation, our executives will make forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements generally relate to future events or future financial or operating performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from those content. Forward-looking statements in presentation include but are not limited to the statements related to our business and financial performance, expectations in guidance for future viewers or expectations regarding our strategic product initiatives, and the related benefits in our expectations regarding the market, as well as the potential impact from COVID-19. These risks include those more fully described in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on the information available to us as of the date there of. You should not rely on them as predictions of future events We disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required by law. In addition, management may reference non-IFRS financial measures on this call. The non IFRS financial measures are not intended to considered in insulation or as a substitute of these results prepared in accordance with IFRS. We have provided a reconciliation of these non IFRS financial measures to the most directly comparable IFRS financial measures in this presentation. Let me now turn over to call over to Virgilio Gibbon, AFYA's CEO is starting with Slide three.

Virgilio Gibbon

Management

Thanks everyone for joining us today on our last 2021 conference call. I'm extremely proud to present a model year of showing strong results on performance since 2021 we're successful execution of our certainty strategy. The commitment of our team members in the consistency of our business model. Box clean, doing another year of a worldwide pandemic during this call, I will run through three main topics. First, I will show where we heading to on our business strategy for education and Digital Services. Second, the achievements in for solutions on the ESG sign. An extremely relevant that June that year front. And last but not least, our financial highlights in 2022 guidance demonstrated at Afya will continue to deliver a strong performance on wards. Now, moving to the next page, we can see how Afya has succeeded in its opportunities and yet has a great future ahead with the number of seats getting higher each quarter. The expansion of our offering in the undergrad business continues to grow strong. So far, Afya has reached 2,759 seats for undergrad medical school. With four new medical units and 28 seats [indiscernible] both to start operating in the second semester of 2022. This represents almost 20,000 students [indiscernible]. Our pipeline for acquisition is fertile, and we still have the opportunity to expand more than 1,000 seats among our current campuses. The growth expectation for the digital strategy is not lower. By 2022, we expect to boost our market penetration and consolidate our offerings to B2B clients. That we will allow us to leverage our Physician network, unlock new revenue streams, and create value for the healthcare team. Our plan is to monetize the services by addressing the needs of the pharmaceutical industry, providers such as pharmacies and hospitals, and [indiscernible] the corporate…

Luis Andre Blanco

Management

Thank you, Virgilio. And good evening, everyone. Moving to slide 10 to discuss the financial highlights of the fourth-quarter and full-year off 2021. It is with a lot satisfaction that I present another strong and consistent year of results for AFYA. Since 2019, we've been seeing, in all quarters, a positive trend in our key metrics. Adjusted net revenues for the quarter was up 45% year-over-year to R$505 million, reflecting the maturation of medical seats, an increase in the average ticket of medical program, and consolidations of acquisitions of medical schools and digital services. For the year, the increase was also 45% totaling R$1.753 billion. It is important to mention that the adjustment up R$7.1 million [indiscernible] in tuition fees in the fourth quarter rented by individual and collected legal and public civil proceedings, related to COVID-19, is mostly seized in December, due to the Supreme Court decision. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was 26% year-over-year to a $195 million range. For the year adjusted EBITDA was $755 million an increase of 34%. For both periods, the adjusted EBITDA margins was below the reported margins off the last year, mainly due to the consolidation iClinic mid [indiscernible], Mitch Kohan, [indiscernible], fleet pharma, [indiscernible] in 9x sprawl, which reduces their digital margins and lower than expected Metso results for the fourth quarter due to higher competition along with lower performance from the continuing education segment. Adjusted net income for the quarter, was R$99 million slightly below the safety periods of the prior year. For the year, net income increase was in line with 2020 totaling R$440 million react. For most periods, adjusted net income results were affected by an increase in financial expenses that was affected by a higher, higher net debt position related to nine basis combinations execute the duty…

Renata Costa Couto

Management

Good evening, everyone. Marcelo, you may talk.

Marcelo Santos

Management

Hi, good evening. Thank you very much for the questions. I have two. The first, I wonder if you could comment a bit more on the higher competitiveness in the medical prep business. What kind of player is creating this higher competition? What are your plans to do about it? How should we think going forward? And the second question is, what kind of ticket assumption is embedded in the guidance for 2022 for medical courses? These are the two questions. Thank you.

Virgilio Gibbon

Management

Hi Marcelo. This is Virgilio. On the resident's square course arena, we saw at least 10 additional competitors coming to the market in 2021. And also, the market was kind of impacted by all the resident's exam schedule. Because of the pandemic, we have some exams that was postponed and all the decisions of take the program costs [indiscernible] was impacted by this problem was the schedule planning. So, we had a higher competitive landscape impacting the margins and also price, and also the demand was postponed because of these disruptions, probably back on-schedule planning for the resident [indiscernible] exams -- resident's exams. On the second about the guidance, Luis will dictate.

Luis Andre Blanco

Management

Hi, Marcelo, good evening. Talking about the tickets on the undergrad side of the business. We've put a readjustment of 7.5% in new students and existing students, for 2022. So, we have this increase in our tickets, and above that, we have the effect of the maturation of tickets that would have on existing base, as we are graduating students with lower tickets than the ones that are coming to intake. These two affects together, must have an increasing ticket in something about 10%, or a little bit more than that.

Marcelo Santos

Management

Thank you.

Renata Costa Couto

Management

Our next question comes from Vinicius Figueiredo. Thank you, Marcelo. Our next question comes from Vinicius Figueiredo, from Itau BBA. Vinicius you may go.

Vinicius Figueiredo

Management

Good evening won, Thanks for taking my question on my question regarding their data is for which does thing to try to connectors Zales for top line and EBITDA we can see even with the ongoing duration of seats in 2003, healthy price dynamics, margin should not expand substantially the right. What is the main reason behind it? Because we should expect digital services increasing their participation in the revenue mix. And if I may a second question would be on digital services from organic perspective, we saw a marginal year-over-year crazy top-line. If you could explore this performance, it will be great. Thanks

Virgilio Gibbon

Management

Hi, Vinicius. In terms of organic growth for 2022, we expect the top line to move above 30% considering the median of the guidance on our top line. And more than 50% of this growth will be leveraged by the organic growth maturation and also price and tuition for 2022. On the digital services, yes, we're expecting an even higher growth coming from the digital services segment with lower margin. That was the reason that we may have some small decrease on our overall margin considering education and also the digital service. Specific on the education side on the undergrad business, we'll have 12 months of UNIGRANRIO and UNIFIPMoc. These two institutions, they are very representative on our total revenue coming from 2021 to 2022. And we are still extracting synergies from UNIGRANRIO and leveraging their contribution margin. So having said that, we will have on [indiscernible] on the undergrad business, still have very high margin, a flat margin, considering this effect. But as we have higher a contribution coming from digital services, that's the reason we are expecting a little bit, 1 to 1.5 digital percentage points of margins year-over-year for the overall guidance for 2022.

Renata Costa Couto

Management

And if I may add Vinicius. One important point, that 2022, is the year that we are going to expand our B2B strategy. As you guys know, we need to structure all that. We need to hire more people, structure the process, build the products. We already have more than 20 contracts with the industry, considerably, education and services [indiscernible] industry. That's the first year of our strategy. We expect to spend money to build all that. That's what is one of the biggest reasons for marketing decrease. Plus, as Virgilio said, we have a flat margin coming from [indiscernible 00:26:30]

Luis Andre Blanco

Management

Paving uses and Luis speaking right now to take your second questions regarding the growth, organic growth, the digital segments, either fourth-quarter We need to remember that we've made 6 business combinations in the digital segments during 2021. So, the comparison on the organic growth between the fourth-quarter 2021 and the fourth-quarter of 2020 is comparing just MEDCEL and PEBMED business. We have this pushback, the [indiscernible] that was due to the MEDCEL business. We see the PEBMED digital support system growing over 30%, and the pushback that we have on the fourth-quarter was related fully on the Metso business.

Vinicius Figueiredo

Management

Okay. Perfect. Very clear. Thanks for [indiscernible]

Renata Costa Couto

Management

Of course. So, our next question comes from Vitor Tomita from Goldman Sachs. Vitor you may go.

Vitor Tomita

Management

Hello. Good evening, all. Two questions from our side. Thanks for taking our questions. And the first one, it's a follow-up to Vinicius ' question. Given all that, in your guidance, how much approximately organic growth are you assuming for the digital units now that you have all the acquisitions together influencing the results? And a second point here, is how do you see continuing education intakes performing at this point? And how much growth are you assuming for these units in guidance? Thank you.

Luis Andre Blanco

Management

Okay. Hi, Vitor. Thank you for question. It's Luis speaking. Regarding the embedded [indiscernible] global organic growth inside of the digital segment, we're expecting growth approximately, of 50%, 50% during 2022. Remember that we have these 6 business combinations that we have done during 2021. We've compared this organic growth, we're going to expect this 50% growth year-over-year, in terms of organic during the year.

Vitor Tomita

Management

This is on the top-line?

Luis Andre Blanco

Management

Yeah. Net revenues. And on the continuing education, the graduates [indiscernible] from the demands. At the moment, we have something good, 40% above the same period last year, so the intake process is running very strong, and we already have enrolled most of the classes. So, we have very good news on the front of continuing education, as we are allowed to start delivering the classes on a regular basis. It will be positive flow during 2022.

Vitor Tomita

Management

Thank you very much.

Renata Costa Couto

Management

So just show remember if you want to ask the question, raise your hand. The next question comes from Mauricio Cepeda from suites Maui you may tell

Mauricio Cepeda

Management

Everyone Hi, Virgilio, Andre Thanks for the time. So, I have a question about competition as well. But instead of asking about the prep courses, let me go to the continuing education and we know that we -- you had kind of, let's say, circumstantial problem with the pandemics. But do you see an increase in the competition in continuing education as well given that seems to be a kind of an attractive niche in the sector. And secondly, when we see the secret suggests we're a little bit below inflation. What are the reasons behind that was that intentionally to maximize volumes? Do you see any market difficulties that could prevent better price adjustments? Thank you.

Virgilio Gibbon

Operator

Hi, Cepeda. Thanks for both questions. On the continued education competition, we are not seeing a tough market. Actually, it's on the other side. We changed our prices. We launched many other programs. We also opened new campuses to operate these specialization programs. So, we are seeing a very strong demand, remembering that our program, it's very practical two or three-year program, a very high value tuition. So, it's a huge opportunity here for us and we are having a record student base coming from this continued education operation. So, these are your first question. And about the ticket, the inflation, I think it's important to understand how we set our prices for the following year. When we start making all the intake, the enrollment process for the following year, for 2022 as an example, we start in September, so we had to define the tuition back in September 2021. It was in the middle of the prices. We did not have this huge leverage from the inflation, from the price at that moment. So farther that moment the students that we already have your role in our student base, 7.5% would it be something reasonable considering that we're best of the entire student means what do we are doing is that for the new students, we pushed a price a little bit over than 7.5. We have some campuses -- some programs that was almost 15% for the fresh students that we're repositioning our product on that region. So, the combination on all of these, remember that we are graduating students with lower tickets, we have a new wave coming. A new cohort coming with 7.5% above, and the fresh students enrolling even above the 7.5, that's our strategy off-price. So, we have to define prices in September so we started enrolling students in February like now. Want we are seeing for the following semester is that, the inflation is reducing. We are expecting a lower inflation of one digital for the next 12 months. And we can keep passing between 5 and 8% price for the student’s base in order to be more as a smooth transition for this higher inflation period for the regular one that we are most used with one single-digit. So that's not out of here. I think it's not how borrower we can best inflation 10%, but it's in order to be moist moves. For a longer period that we can have 7.5 for the entire set up basis at least. And for the following year, we also can adjust for some of the same same level, even considering that the inflation will be lower than that.

Renata Costa Couto

Management

Cepeda, I will use your question to go back to the resident’s prep competition point. And one thing that I think that is important for all you guys to understand, is that we considered the market stable in terms of resident’s seat in the market, and the number of competitors in this market almost doubled. And the kind of competitors that we are seeing, our competitors that are focused in one kind of specialization, they have digital offerings that sometimes are less complex and needs less investments than what we have and we follow those lower tickets. So that's the scenario of competition that we are facing. But what we are doing, we are understanding our portfolio, understanding how we can make this purch volume more approachable for all of the students. And I don't know if you guys saw it, but we acquired a company that's called Alem da Medicina. And this company have digital influencers behind it and have a high penetration among students in Brazil, so we are trying to make a better position in this digital marketing. Again, understanding how the offer should be, understanding who we need to be the face of the company for the students to have a more appealing marketing for them. So, we probably will have some news in the short period. Thank you for a question.

Mauricio Cepeda

Management

Thank you. Thank you for the clarity.

Renata Costa Couto

Management

I see that Cepeda was the last question. If you still want to ask a question, please raise your hand. Before that, I would also like to highlight our [indiscernible] day next week. I hope that we can see you you all. I just ask you all to register for the event. We have the link in our website. I see that we don't have any more questions. We are available if you want to do any follow-up. If anybody decides want to talk to us, just send us an email in our Investor Relations email or contact. Thank you so much. Have a good night.