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Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO)

Q1 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, May 15, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Adecoagro’s First Quarter 2014 Results Conference Call. Today with us, we have Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO; Mr. Charlie Boero Hughes, CFO; and Mr. Hernan Walker, Investor Relations Manager. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the company’s presentation. After the company’s remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer section. At that time, further instructions will be given. (Operator instructions) Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Adecoagro’s management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events, and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions; industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Adecoagro and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now, I’ll turn the conference over to Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO. Mr. Bosch, you may begin your conference.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. The first quarter of 2014 has shown very good results in all our business lines. Our Crops, Rice and Dairy businesses have started to generate attractive returns. Our discipline of maintaining an efficient cost structure allows us to capture gains and synergies of our high-quality asset base and a sustainable business model focused on returns. In the Rice business, although weather and ongoing works of land transformation of our farms have not allowed us to increase yields decision. We have consummated improvements in our operational efficiencies and production costs, after we stalled [ph] of our investment in zero-level technology and our focus on agriculture and industrial excellence. In Dairy business, the second free-stall is almost at full capacity. Milking cows are rapidly adapting to this new production system. Productivity per cow is consistently increasing quarter-after-quarter, and we are confident we would be able to reach our highest performance metrics soon. The Dairy business is generating attractive returns and we see good opportunities to continue growing in this business. Finally, in the Crop business, although we had a dry November and December, our sustainable model focused on long-term solid productivity on agriculture and cost efficiency on a hectare-by-hectare basis and our multi-diversification strategy have allowed us to harvest good crop yields. In the Sugar, Ethanol business, we are starting a promising year. The first quarter is known as the off-season, generally used to the maintenance of our mills. But we have been very active executing our ethanol carrying strategy, cogenerating electricity at effective energy prices, planting sugarcane to supply our growing capacity at the Ivinhema mill, and our agriculture and industrial teams have continued their training process and are ready to continue enhancing operational and productive efficiencies. Now, I would like to ask, Charlie, to walk you through the main operational and financial highlights of the quarter. Charlie, please go ahead.

Charlie Boero Hughes

Management

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Adecoagro conference call for the first quarter of 2014. I would like to walk you through a few slides that reflect the main operational and financial highlights of the quarter. Let’s move ahead to Page 2, where I will analyze the impact of the weather on our Farming business. The chart shows the monthly rainfall evolution for our farms located in the humid pampas of Argentina. The green bars represent rainfall during the 2012 and 2013 crop, and the orange bar represents the current 2013 and 2014 crop. As I’ve showed in the chart, the main productive regions of Argentina suffered lack of rains together with high temperatures from December 2013 to mid-January 2014. However, since mid-January 2014, rains have normalized and returned to their historical levels. Our sustainable production model based on no-till farming, crop rotations, balanced fertilization and integrated pest management has allowed our farms to mitigate the abnormal weather during November and December and we captured efficiency gains. As a result, crops have been able to develop as expected, generating an increasing yields and margins compared to the previous crop. Moving onto Page 3, I would like to give you an update regarding the harvest of our main crops. As you may see on the upper left chart, as of the end of April 2014, the harvest of rice was almost completed, reaching 94% of total planted areas. Harvested yields were 5.7 tons per hectare, in line with the previous harvest year but below our expectations. Supply of water in dams and rivers was sufficient to flood the rice fields throughout the crop’s cycle. However, during mid-February through April, higher than normal amount of cloudy and rainy days had a negative impact on yields at some of our farms…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. (Operator Instructions) Please hold while we poll for questions. The first question comes from Isabella Simonato with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Isabella Simonato – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Thank you. Good morning everyone. My question is related to CapEx and debt. I understand that you anticipated the second phase of Ivinhema. So I was wondering, what’s the target leverage for the year-end of 2014, and what is the CapEx estimated for the year? Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Hello Isabella, this is Mariano. I will ask, Charlie Boero, our CFO to answer your question.

Charlie Boero Hughes

Management

Hi Isabella, the target for the year is an investment in the Sugar and Ethanol business with the construction of the second phase of Ivinhema. We are projecting to spend $250 million in total. This is considering the industry Ag equivalent and the planting. Isabella Simonato – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: This is only for the Sugar and Ethanol?

Charlie Boero Hughes

Management

Yes, exactly. This also includes the amount in CapEx for those industry and the renewal of the sugarcane. Isabella Simonato – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: And regarding the leverage, the net debt-to-EBITDA and what is the target for the year?

Charlie Boero Hughes

Management

We do not give guidance as you know, but we estimate that we will be in a range of 2.6 to 2.8. Isabella Simonato – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Good. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Enrico Grimaldi with BTG. Please go ahead. Enrico Grimaldi – BTG Pactual: Hi, good morning everyone. My question is regarding new energy business. Can you just remind us how much of contracted energy do you have and at what price, and how much you can sell in the spot market as a whole? And also how will this breakdown for the first Q specifically. I mean how much was contracted sales and how much was sold in the spot market, and if you could share with us the prices regarding the spot market in this Q, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Hello Enrico, this is Mariano. For the first part of your question, that is how much we have already contracted and how much we did have to contract. We do have 60% of our energy for this year, 2014, that has the long-term contract. Already it’s part of the long-term contracts that are in an average price of BRL 210 per megawatt. Then we have another 20% that has been already contracted for this year. That is in around BRL 345 per megawatt. And then we have the last 20% that is being sold at the spot market, and will be sold during the year at the spot markets whatever that is, that today is BRL 822 [ph]. And then particularly for the quarter that you were asking specifically, how much was sold at the different price. We had 18% sold at BRL 600 per megawatt, 40% sold at BRL 822 and 39% sold at BRL 181 that was our regional long-term contract. That was for 15,000 megawatt hours. Enrico Grimaldi – BTG Pactual: Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Giovana Araújo with Itaú BBA. Please go ahead. Giovana Araújo – Itaú BBA: Hi, good morning. My question is also about the energy sales. Looking 2015, do you have an idea how much sale – how much energy you have available for sale in spot markets in 2015, already taken account on top of [ph] Ivinhema mill in volumes megawatt hour?

Mariano Bosch

Management

Giovana, this year we are projecting, in average 400,000 megawatt hour for the whole year. And for 2015, we are projecting a 570,000 that includes the grow-out of the Ivinhema mill and the second phase of the Ivinhema mill. Within that growth, we already have contracted 250,000 megawatt hour. So it’s less than 50%. Giovana Araújo – Itaú BBA: Okay, perfect. And do you plan to – okay, do you plan to participate in any energy auction this year?

Mariano Bosch

Management

Yes. We are analyzing those energy auctions. Depending on the price, we may take advantage and participate. We are thinking on the A minus one, and to participate on those one, we don’t like too much the A minus zero, because we think that spot prices this year will continue attractive, so we don’t want to lose the spot prices of this year. Giovana Araújo – Itaú BBA: Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Vincenzo Paternostro with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Vincenzo Paternostro – Credit Suisse: Good morning everyone. My question is on land market in Argentina. Have you seen any impact on land price as a consequence of the huge depreciation of Argentina pesos? That’s my question. Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Hello Vincenzo, this is Mariano. Yes, we do see some impact on the land prices, because of the devaluation and this is positive income. Land is now generating more dollars per hectare, so that’s why prices of land have slight increase in dollar, when you think about land prices in Argentina. Vincenzo Paternostro – Credit Suisse: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Ravi Jain with HSBC. Please go ahead. Ravi Jain – HSBC Securities: Hi good morning. I had a couple of questions on the sugar, ethanol front. What is your view on the rough takes [ph] of an increasing in the ethanol blend to 27.5%? And when do you expect to see a meaningful fuel price increase? Will it be at the end of this year, or will it be only in 2015?

Mariano Bosch

Management

Sorry. Again, Ravi, can you repeat that question? We couldn’t hear pretty clear. Ravi Jain – HSBC Securities: No worries. The first question was what is your view on the increase in ethanol blends to 27.5%? And second question is, when do you expect to see a fuel price increase allowed by the government? Would it be closer to the end of 2014, or do you expect it to happen only a meaningful increase in 2015?

Mariano Bosch

Management

Okay. Ravi, I am going to ask Marcelo Sanchez, Commercial Director about this with us to take your question. Marcelo, please.

Walter Marcelo Sanchez

Analyst

Hi Ravi, good morning. It’s a very good question. What I would say that as of today, the only thing – the known thing about the increase in the blend is still at the commission stage at the Congress, and actually there was a positive news today that passed through the commission, but it’s still a long way and it is approved and pass on the steps to go as a law. And the second part of your question regarding the increase in price of the gasoline. There have been really a long discussion on this, and at government level as well as you might be aware of. And we think we expect an increase in the price-wise at the end of this year, and that is exactly what we are today expecting than there won’t be – the inflation won’t be to – we’re not expecting a big increase in price, but there will be a movement in price by the end of the year. That’s our expectation. Ravi Jain – HSBC Securities: Thank you. That makes sense. And the second question was, those of your strategy of land acquisitions. Are you looking at purchasing land in the shorter term in Brazil or in other parts of Latin America? I just wanted to know your strategy on that front.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Okay, Ravi. As we have been always saying, we are looking for land in South America. We are searching and we are analyzing potential opportunities in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia and Columbia. Those are the places where we are really looking seriously at different potential opportunities, but we haven’t achieved yet the returns we want in order to be able to buy the land, so that’s why you haven’t see us acquiring land. So the harder returns that we are asking for the land, we are not seeing them there on the different opportunities that we are analyzing. So if the return appears, you may see us buying land, but if we don’t see the returns that we are willing to obtain, we won’t. Ravi Jain – HSBC Securities: Thank you. That’s very helpful.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Mr. Mariano, would you like to provide any closing remarks?

Mariano Bosch

Management

Sure. We have started a new year, fully motivated to develop our plans. On the Farming, we are in the end of the harvest season and we have shown in our results. Our Land Transformation model is paying off. On the Sugar and Ethanol, we started a new campaign in our cluster in Mato Grosso do Sul in optimal operational conditions. And our employees, contractors and stakeholders are completely aligned to obtain their maximum efficiencies in our production. 2014 will be a year full of challenges, and we will continue with our discipline of creating value for the company and deliver effective returns to our shareholders. Thank you very much. See you in next meeting.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today’s presentation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a nice day.