Earnings Labs

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 14, 2023

$13.67

+4.71%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+2.43%

1 Week

+10.50%

1 Month

+10.69%

vs S&P

+6.10%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Adecoagro's Third Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. Today with us, we have Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO; Mr. Emilio Gnecco, CFO; Mr. Renato Junqueira Pereira, Sugar, Ethanol and Energy VP; and Ms. Vitoria Cabello, Investor Relations Officer. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the company's presentation. After the company's remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer session. at this time, further instructions will be given. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Adecoagro's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions, and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Adecoagro and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now, I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO. Mr. Bosch, you may begin your conference.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Good morning and thank you for joining Adecoagro's 2023 third quarter results conference. As you may have seen in the report, we are presenting very good operational and financial results. Our adjusted EBITDA during the quarter was $155 million, 27% higher compared to last year. We are very enthusiastic about how our sugar ethanol and energy business continues to perform. Last quarter, I mentioned some of the work we started doing a few years ago to enhance the productivity of our sugar cane plantation. I mentioned innovative techniques like pre-sprouted seedlings and its reproduction in our own bio-factory, the incorporation of state-of-the-art farming equipment, the use of drones and artificial intelligence, biological pesticides, et cetera, et cetera. During this quarter, we saw the results of our work. For example, we achieved record crushing volume of 4.5 million tons. The quantity and quality of our sugar plantation is in an excellent shape with TRS content per hectare over 30% higher year-over-year. With this sugarcane, we produced a record volume of sugar. Indeed, we focus on solving minor bottlenecks in our sugar kitchen and were able to produce sugar above our nominal capacity, increasing our already large flexibility. And this came at a time when sugar commanded a premium over hydrous ethanol of more than 50%. We remain with our hedges open and very well-positioned to continue taking advantage of these price opportunities. Brazil is the most efficient country in the world in the production of sugar and we own one of the most efficient operations in Brazil and therefore, in the world. The region of Mato Grosso do Suland, where our cluster is located, allows us to mill all the year round, maximizing our milling time, while at the same time, diluting our costs. We are very proud of our operational…

Operator

Operator

Also, I don't make any noise, but if you need anything, I'm here. Okay.

Emilio Gnecco

Management

[Technical Difficulty] $88 million during the third quarter, making a 2% year-over-year increase, while on an accumulated basis, it reached $1 billion, 7% higher than the previous year. This was mostly explained by greater productivity indicators in our Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy division, which enabled us to increase our sugar production and execute sales at solid prices, coupled with higher average selling prices in our Rice and Dairy businesses. In addition, during September, we completed the sale of El Meridiano farm for a selling price of $48 million fully collected at the closing date. Consequently, adjusted EBITDA reached $155 million during the quarter, whereas year-to-date, it stood at $381 million, 27% and 16% higher than its respective previous periods. Now, please turn to Slide 5 and direct your attention to our production figures. As you can see on the bottom right chart, crushing volumes in our Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy business were up 31% on a year-to-date basis. Higher crushing translates into higher production volume, which drives sales at the same time as it dilutes costs. This was mostly possible, thanks to the implementation of innovative agricultural techniques such as pre-sprouted seedling, which enable us to reproduce sugarcane varieties that have better performance, both in yields and TRS content in our regions. On the other hand, total production in our farming division reported a 29% year-over-year reduction, mostly explained by the reduction in yields and planted area in our crop segment because of El Nino weather event. Let's move ahead to Slide 7 with the operational performance of Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy business. During the third quarter, we marked a new record in crushing volume of 4.5 million tons, 20% higher versus the prior year. This was mostly driven by solid productivity indicators such as yields, which presented a 27%…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Thiago Duarte from BTG Pactual. Your microphone is open.

Thiago Duarte

Analyst

Hi. Hello, everybody. Thanks for the opportunity. Yes, two questions on our side here. The first one is with regards with the evolution of the crushing pace in the Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business and particularly looking at the evolution of the productivity, which has been really strong this year. And so the question is really about whether you see upside risk to the 15% increase in crushing volumes that you have guided for the year? Because it does seem like you have a lot more raw material available to crush than only 15% increase. And obviously, if you're keeping the 15% increase, whether we should be seeing more cane being carried over into the next crop and whether you could see a bigger crushing next year relative to 12 million tons around this year. So that would be the first question. And the second one is also on the sugar business. We have started to see different players announcing different sorts of investments in order to increase their capacity to produce sugar or to increase their sugar mix as opposed to ethanol. And obviously, with sugar prices trading where they are relative to ethanol, it does seem to make sense even for some mills that historically haven't made much sugar. So, the question is whether you guys are considering the possibility of doing the same? And obviously, whatever you can share with us with that regard. That will be great to hear as well.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Hi, Thiago. How are you? Thank you for your question. Renato will take your first question, and then I will take the second one, Renato, regarding the evolution of crushing and the upside base compared to a 15% we've already guided.

Renato Junqueira Pereira

Analyst

Okay. Hi, Thiago, thank you for your question. I think the weather this year is being very good. We are not seeing periods of excess or lack of moisture in the soil, so this is very good for crushing. So we are crushing -- our crushing pace is doing pretty well. And also the perspective of the yields are really good too. So we are confident that we are going to achieve this 15% more crushing compared to last year. Regarding the risk of crushing more than 15%, I think it's possible. But of course, it depends on the use of time in the last quarter -- last quarter is always difficult to predict the use of time. So considering historical use of time, we should be crushing 15% margin than last year. And we think that we are going to be in a very good position to crush in the first quarter of next year. I think the sugarcane looks good. Looks very good, so we will be, I would say, plant of sugarcane to be crushed in a very intense quarter in the first quarter. So that's the first question.

Mariano Bosch

Management

And regarding the second question, Thiago, we've been making small investments during the full year. And as you can see, every quarter, we are increasing the amount of sugar that we are producing on the mix. So we are going to end up on up to 52% of sugar of the total TRS. And so this year, we are very optimistic on achieving these numbers that are above the nominal capacities. When you hear the other guys building sugar factories, it's because they don't have any sugar factory. We do have sugar factory in all our mills -- so what we are doing is increasing marginally the productivity of each one of the factories. So for next year, we can still see an increase of the sugar production of the total sugar production because of this increase that Renato was talking about and because of maximizing sugar since the very beginning. So what we are investing is on making the process of our sugar factory work perfectly well all the year round for next year. That's where we are today regarding the sugar mix investment.

Thiago Duarte

Analyst

Perfect. Thank you. And just a follow-up on Renato's comments. Are you guys ready to sort of, I don't know, a point or guide towards an additional increase in sugar cane volumes into next year. Would that be reasonable or feasible to think relative to this year?

Mariano Bosch

Management

Yes. We think that, that reasonably relative to this year, of course, as Renato explained, our sugar crushing is variable according to the use of time of the sugar mills, but assuming weather going normal we should have an increase of at least 5% and maybe up to 10% when we compare to this year. And that's something that if we continue to do the same thing that we've been doing, we can certainly be there.

Thiago Duarte

Analyst

It's very helpful. Thank you, Mariano.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Larissa Pérez from Itaú BBA. You can activate your microphone. Larissa Pérez: Good afternoon. Can you hear me all right?

Mariano Bosch

Management

Yes, perfectly well. Hi, Larissa. Larissa Pérez: Thank you, Mariano. Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking our questions, and congratulations once again on the very strong results. I have two questions on the sugar and ethanol side. First, I was wondering if you could provide us some more perspectives on your forecasted destocking base, particularly for ethanol. I mean, in other words, what should we expect in terms of selling volumes for the next quarter? And in that context, I was wondering if you could provide us some color on your storage capacity for the ethanol, or if you currently have enough storage capacity or if you're having to lease third-party storaging facilities? And how do you think that compares to your regional peers? My second question would be on capital allocation as well. I remember that a couple of months ago, we discussed the possibility of the company increasing its planted area in Mato Grosso do Sul, given the strong outlook ahead for the sector. And I was wondering if you have any updates on that front that you can share with us right now. I mean, if Adecoagro were to increase its sugarcane planted area, would that involve converting pastureland or would you leave land already used for sugarcane something amongst that line? Thank you once again and congratulations on the results.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Thank you, Larissa. Renato will take your first question, and I will take the second one. So Renato, do you want to clarify regarding the selling volumes of ethanol and storage capacity.

Renato Junqueira Pereira

Analyst

Hi, Larissa. We think that the low priority ratio at the pump now and the level of demand of ethanol that you have been seeing is going to increase disparity towards the 7%. Probably, we're going to see this in the next months. So we are taking advantage of all our tanks capacity. And also, we are leasing some tanks outside of our mills. So, at this moment, we have approximately 250,000 cubic meters starts. So we will be feeling the market how quick the price should go up to start selling our volume between the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Okay. Thank you, Renato. That is regarding the capital allocation and the planted area of course, within the growth projects that we have, we've always indicated that growing the planting area or the amount of sugarcane that we produce in the cluster is probably the most efficient investment that we've been doing. And as we've been growing, we are able to lease land mainly from pastureland one of the advantages that we have is that we don't have competition in sugarcane land with other sugar mills because of our specific location or the competition is very low. So, -- in general, when we plant new sugarcane, we convert faster lands into sugarcane. That's basically what we've been doing. This year 2023, we are planting 8,000 hectares of new planted hectares being specific on answering your question. Larissa Pérez: Thank you. That was super clear. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] For the written questions, I'll pass the floor over to Vitoria, Investor Relations Officer.

Vitoria Cabello

Analyst

We received that question from Julia Rizzo from Morgan Stanley, and she asks, I would like to ask about next year crushing and mix. Sugar production could go as much as the 3,020 -- 320,000 tons for quarters. Basically, is it possible that each quarter, we could see the same record volume of sugar production than we did lease this quarter.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Okay. I can't take directly the question. As Renato explained, very clear, the crushing volume that we are already expecting for 2024 is between 5% to 10% more than this year. And regarding the specific amount of sugar that we can produce this quarter that we are announcing today, we produce this 320,000 tons of sugar that is an absolute record because of all these investments and adjustments that we did that I also just mentioned, doing that, the four quarters, I think it's too challenging, mainly because of the amount of sugarcane that we harvest every quarter. The quarter that we are just finishing is usually the more dry quarter of our cycle, being dry means that we can be harvesting and milling all or most of the time in all the other quarters, it's more difficult to reach that level or that amount of crushing days. That's why I see too challenging, making 320. Can we do 20% less? Yes, I think we can do 20% place by quarter, but we can repeat this same 320 for the same quarter of the next year. And maybe the previous quarter, the second quarter of the year is also a quarter that is usually more day. So the -- the semester during winter time is more used for having more sugarcane than the other quarter. That's basically the answer.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer section. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Bosch for any closing remarks.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Thank you, everyone, for joining today, and we hope to see you in our next upcoming events.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect at this time, and have a nice day.