Earnings Labs

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Tue, Mar 17, 2026

$13.67

+4.71%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+9.48%

1 Week

+12.21%

1 Month

-0.04%

vs S&P

-5.86%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Adecoagro S.A.'s 2025 Results Conference Call. Today with us, we have Mr. Mariano Bosch, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Emilio Gnecco, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Renato Junqueira Pereira, Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy Vice President; and Ms. Victoria Cabello, Investor Relations Officer. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded, and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the company's presentation. After the company's remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer section. At that time, further instructions will be given. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Adecoagro S.A.'s management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions, and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Adecoagro S.A. and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Mariano Bosch, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Bosch, you may begin your conference.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Good morning, and thank you for joining Adecoagro S.A.'s 2025 Results Conference. Today, we are presenting a larger, further diversified, and more resilient Adecoagro S.A., but with the same DNA: being the lowest-cost producer. Upon acquiring Profertil, we became the largest producer of urea in South America. This new operation marked a transformational moment for us as it broadened our production capabilities, more than doubled our cash generation, and reduced earnings volatility by incorporating a stable, consistent, and already cash-generating business. We are adding a unique asset in Argentina to our well-diversified agro-industrial portfolio, with the capacity to expand its earnings and cash potential by leveraging Argentina's largest natural gas reserves. As we rely on natural gas to produce urea, greater extraction will translate into further supply at more competitive prices. We also have a huge market opportunity of reaching a wider demand in South America that today must rely on imports from faraway origins such as the Middle East. Due to the ongoing international conflict, urea prices have peaked and we are very well positioned to capture this upside, as most of our production is still open to market prices and our gas supply remains secure and at a fixed price. The acquisition of Profertil would not have been possible without the continued support of our shareholders. We raised $300 million in new equity anchored by Tetra, our controlling shareholder, further reinforcing their commitment to the company's long-term strategy. Given this incorporation, we decided to simplify the way we view our businesses and move to three segments: the Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy business; the Fertilizers business; and the Food and Agriculture business, all of which Emilio will detail shortly. Now, looking back to 2025, it was a challenging year for the agribusiness sector as commodity prices reached the low end of the cycle. Today's prices remain under pressure, but with a focus on efficiency and being the local producer, we will be able to continue navigating the cycle. Higher crushing in Brazil will drive further cost dilution, which will partially mitigate the lower sugar prices. In Argentina and Uruguay, better productivity will turn into margin expansion and greater results. On top of this, we expect a normalized and full year of operations from the Fertilizers business, driving further cash generation. To conclude, I would like to acknowledge all the people in Adecoagro S.A. for their hard work in this tough context. I am convinced that if we remain focused on being the lowest-cost producer in each of our sustainable production models, we can further expand our earnings potential. I will now turn the call over to Emilio to walk you through the numbers for the year.

Emilio Gnecco

Management

Thank you, Mariano. Good morning, everyone. Before entering into the results of the year, I would like to make a preliminary observation with the intention to provide more clarity in the understanding of the numbers we are presenting today. Following the acquisition of Profertil on 12/18/2025, our consolidated interim financial statements incorporate Profertil's income statement only for a 13-day period under a new business unit named Fertilizers. Additionally, in an effort to update and simplify the way we view our business units, from January 2026 the company will change the business segment reporting structure as follows: Segment number one, Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy business as previously known; segment number two, the Fertilizers business, which includes the manufacturing and commercialization of fertilizers; and segment number three, Food and Agriculture business, which reflects an integrated business focused on agriculture and food production that in the past was presented through three separate verticals: Crops, Rice, and Dairy. Please turn to page four where you can see how the acquisition of Profertil supports our scale. On a pro forma annualized basis, consolidating the 2024 and 2025 results of our Fertilizers business, Adecoagro S.A. increased its size from a base of $1.5 billion in recurring revenues and a mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA of more than $400 million and cash generation of $150 million to above the $2.0 billion sales threshold with the potential to generate $700 million in EBITDA and to double its cash generation. In addition, the acquisition further diversifies our portfolio, as illustrated in the pie chart at the top right, thereby strengthening the company's ability to perform across cycles. Please turn to page five of the presentation. As we have been anticipating over the previous quarters, 2025 was a challenging year marked by lower commodity prices, mixed productivity, and higher costs in U.S.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. If you have a question, please write it down in the Q&A section or click on “raise hand” for audio questions. Please remember that your company's name should be visible for your question to be taken. We do ask that when you pose your question, you pick up your headset to provide optimum sound quality. Please hold while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from Guillermo Gutia with BTG Pactual. Your microphone is open.

Guillermo Gutia

Analyst

Hi, Mariano. Good morning. So, two questions from our side here, please. The first one is on Fertilizers. You are now starting to operate Profertil at a time when urea prices are actually soaring. So we just want to hear a bit on the fertilizer market today. How are you seeing it? If you expect these higher prices to impact industry volumes in a meaningful way, or we may actually see this price increase maybe flow more directly to Profertil’s margins. So that is the first. And the second one is on the Sugar and Ethanol business. You are now estimating a double-digit growth in sugarcane crushing for this crop year, something that should be largely helped by agricultural yields. So we just want to know how you are seeing the unitary cost going forward, especially since you are going to have a higher dilution from the stronger volumes, but fertilizer prices are also increasing. So those are the two, please.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Thank you, Guillermo, for your question. Number one, I am going to take the question on the Fertilizers business, and then Renato will take the specifics of Sugar and Ethanol. On the Fertilizers business, of course, today the level of prices has increased because of the conflict, and that increase is between 30% to 40%. But before that, fertilizer prices were also good prices for us and for our business model. And today, how these higher prices on urea transform into higher margins for us—that difference goes directly to the final number, to the EBITDA number, or to our cash generation, because all our costs are fixed. Our gas contract, which is 60% of the cost of producing urea, is already fixed, and we have fueling contracts until 2027. So that is pretty easy to calculate and to understand what is the impact of that increase in prices. Having said this, we produce per year, or we should be producing on average, 1.3 million tons per year. From this 1.3 million tons, we have already produced and sold during January and February around 200,000, so 1.1 million are still open to this increase in prices. And we sell almost every month the amount that we are producing. There are some months that we sell more because of the cyclical acquisition from the farmers, so during July, August, and September we sell more than during February and March. So if the prices continue at this level, that 1.1 million tons that are still available for sale will impact directly our final results. So that is basically how we see this, and we see fertilizers for this year at relatively high prices. We have this view that even with the conflict finalizing, fertilizer prices will be impacted for the whole year with the most probability. And then going to your second question on the Sugar and Ethanol business, I will ask Renato to answer that question. Renato?

Renato Junqueira Pereira

Analyst

Hi, Guillermo. We think that our cost can be reduced in approximately 10% to 15%. I think one of the points you just mentioned is the dilution factor. As was mentioned, we had a lot of rains in the last quarter of last year, which improved a lot the outlook for the sugarcane for this year. That is why we are having a very intense first quarter in terms of crushing, producing only ethanol at high prices. So that is the dilution factor. Then, if you go to other points that impact our cost, we think that labor should increase close to inflation. Fertilizer: we have already fixed and bought 70% of our annual need, so we do not see impact until at least mid-year. And diesel, of course, depends on the increase of price of Petrobras, but we have the benefits of the increase of price of gasoline. Also, leasing cost should be lower because of the consequent prices. And more important, we have been working a lot in adjusting our efficiencies, especially in the agriculture part. We have been very disciplined in measuring the efficiency of each machine in the field, so we have reduced the number of equipment to harvest the sugarcane, to plant the sugarcane, so we are doing the same thing with less equipment, which represents less cost. So we are very optimistic we are going to have a good year in terms of cost.

Guillermo Gutia

Analyst

Very clear. Thank you very much, guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Gabriel Baja with SIT. Your microphone is open.

Gabriel Baja

Analyst · SIT. Your microphone is open.

Hi, Adecoagro S.A. team. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. Mostly, it is a kind of a follow-up from the last question. The first one is about the Fertilizers business. When you think about this new scenario for urea and ammonia price, given the fact that you have a really interesting position in the gas price, and I think China, how should we think about the commercialization strategy for the year, given this much better scenario, but the level of certainty that you have at this point makes this kind of decision more, let us say, challenging in this context. So I would like to understand this strategy for the year. The second point is about another commercialization strategy, but in ethanol. The same case here. You see a really tough situation right now for gas and the price for diesel in the country. You are seeing, even though Petrobras has not changed the gasoline price, gasoline prices increasing in the last two weeks, which means that it seems to be more supportive for ethanol price during this next crop season for the year. So to take advantage of this stronger scenario for ethanol price, how should we think about the mix and the commercialization strategy for ethanol going forward from your point of view? So those are the two questions. Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Hi, Gabriel. Thank you for asking your question. Renato, do you want to answer the second question on the gasoline prices, etc.?

Renato Junqueira Pereira

Analyst · SIT. Your microphone is open.

Okay. So we are more optimistic about the ethanol situation now, that the gasoline price will have to increase. Actually, it is already increasing. In the short term, the prices are very good because the level of inventories is very low. Actually, it is 25% lower than a year ago. That is why, under our continuous harvest model, we are crushing a lot in the first quarter and only producing ethanol. So we are selling ethanol right now close to 20¢ per pound equivalent in Mato Grosso do Sul. When the season really starts, which is mid-April, we believe that the supply of ethanol will increase, something between 3 and 4 billion liters. But part of this is going to be consumed by the lower stocks that I just mentioned. The other part is going to be consumed by the fact that E30 is going to be effective since day one, different from last year. And the other part of the volume is going to be absorbed by a higher market share of hydrous ethanol. If you consider a parity at the pump at 60%, it is still an ethanol equivalent to 16.5¢ per pound in Mato Grosso do Sul, which is still better than sugar now. So that is why we think that we will be maximizing ethanol the whole year, and, of course, with a better price because of the situation of gasoline that you asked.

Emilio Gnecco

Management

Thank you, Renato.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Gabriel, and on the Fertilizers business and our strategy on commercialization, in this case you have to take into account that we always follow international prices. South America, this region, imports millions of tons of urea per year, and the region only produces 1.5–1.7 million tons per year. So the net imports are huge. So always the price is determined by international prices. Having said this, most of our strategy is selling domestically within Argentina, because Argentina, in particular, also imports half of the needs that it has per year. So our strategy is to maximize the sales within Argentina but always pricing at import parity. So that is the concept on how we price and all our strategy. And then, as we are producing every month more or less the same amount, and the needs of urea are different—there is a peak in May and another peak in August, September, October of the need that urea has at the fields or in the farms—part of the commercialization strategy includes delivering into the storage capacity in the interior of the different places in order to have this urea ready to be used, strategically. So that is basically how we sell the urea that we are producing all year round.

Gabriel Baja

Analyst · SIT. Your microphone is open.

Thank you, team. Very clear.

Operator

Operator

Once again, please type in the Q&A or click on “raise hand” for audio questions. Our next question comes from Isabella Simonato with Bank of America. Your microphone is open.

Isabella Simonato

Analyst · Bank of America. Your microphone is open.

Thank you. Good morning. Thank you. My question is a little bit on the use of capital. As you said, you are much more leveraged than a year ago, and we have a very different cash flow stream profile, and I understand that this higher urea price should accelerate that. So I was wondering how first we should think about CapEx for 2026 and also cash being returned to shareholders. Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Thank you, Isabella. As you know, we have been always very disciplined on this allocation strategy. So with the acquisition of the Fertilizers business, we have higher leverage to what we have always expressed that is our ideal leverage in terms of times EBITDA. So around 2x is where we would like to be and where we are working to be. But having said this, when there is something very specific, very attractive, as it was the acquisition of the Fertilizers business, and we get into and we can move into this level as we are today, we are very confident that we are going to be able to go to the leverage where we feel comfortable pretty quick, and that is what we are working on. But as Emilio explained, we are continuing with our dividend policy, so we are continuing to distribute in cash dividends $35 million that will be distributed equally in May and November, as we have been doing in the past three or four years. And also, we are analyzing interesting growth projects. Each one of these three lines of business has very attractive and specific growth opportunities, most of them organic growth opportunities and some of them inorganic. But we are always analyzing that. But we will continue to be very disciplined with this general concept of the capital allocation, where some is for returning to shareholders, some to continue to grow, and also to go to the levels of debt of 2x, or around 2x, that is where we feel more comfortable.

Isabella Simonato

Analyst · Bank of America. Your microphone is open.

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Matheus Enfeldt with UBS. Your microphone is open.

Matheus Enfeldt

Analyst · UBS. Your microphone is open.

Hi, everyone. Thank you for the time and for taking my question. My first question is sort of a follow-up from the previous question, which is: I understand that the near focus is on the deleveraging story, which might be relatively quick given what we are seeing in urea and ethanol prices. So thinking once you do deleverage in two, three years, what is the next growth avenue that you really view from here? Is it expanding more sugarcane crush? Is that a possibility? Or potentially expanding more the capacity in Profertil? And also if there could be M&A in the pipeline once leverage really drops? So that is my first question. And then the second question is: I understand that there is a change in the Food and Agriculture segment on how you perceive the business. It is going to be, I do not know, 30% of your revenues, but a relatively small contribution to the overall business, but with a lot of complexity. I think ten different commodities that you need to follow. So I am just wondering how you think that these assets fit into Adecoagro S.A.'s midterm portfolio—if there are ways to potentially monetize better the asset, or if you have the appropriate scale in the farming business to really run, or if you could think of JVs or some partnerships. Just on how you think that this fits into your portfolio midterm. Those are my questions. Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Thank you, Matheus, for your question. I am going to start with the second one and go into the first one. We feel very comfortable with the three business lines that we have today. We think that the Food and Agriculture business is something that has, as you mentioned, sales in that level, and we see a lot of opportunities to continue improving there. And when we think on the margins in terms of EBITDA, that is directly to the cash generation. So we feel very comfortable and enthusiastic on how that business is being transformed into a more cash-generating business. So we do not see anything strategic there on a partnership or anything specific there. We continue to see a lot of advantages in the domestic consumption business, etc., that are improving and working very well. There are some new products that are adding value, and that is very compelling in terms of what is going on there. But having said this, and going to the first part of your question on what is within the most attractive growth avenues that we are seeing today, the Sugar and Ethanol has always been very consistent, and we have this organic growth that we have been talking about and that we have been always analyzing, and we expect that to continue to be there as the returns or the marginal returns are continuing to be attractive. But when we explained to the market and when we were so enthusiastic on our Fertilizers business, it is because we are seeing strategically in South America a huge opportunity in terms of urea production. Argentina has one of the largest gas basins in the world and will become a very important exporter of gas. So one of the big opportunities that we see is to become a larger producer of urea. So, of course, we are analyzing that opportunity of building a new plant, duplicating the plant—what are the growth avenues that we are looking at there on the Fertilizers business. These are investments that are huge in terms of the amount of capital required, and are also very relevant in terms of the engineering of that plant. The time that it takes to build it—it is a three-year project to build a plant like we have today at the minimum, and when you include everything, it is always more of four, or sometimes it is a five-year project to build a plant like what we have today. So that is a huge project, very relevant. We have nothing to announce today rather than that we are very enthusiastic on analyzing deeper the project, the location, the amount of gas, and what is the exact amount of gas, etc. So we can also think about this regime that Argentina has, this special program with some benefits for large investments like this one. So these are the type of potential projects that could appear in the next year or so.

Matheus Enfeldt

Analyst · UBS. Your microphone is open.

That is super clear. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Lucas Ferreira with JPMorgan. Your microphone is open.

Lucas Ferreira

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your microphone is open.

Hi, guys. Two questions. On the Fertilizers business, how to think about the production cost per ton of urea and ammonia this year? Since last year, given the stoppage, I think not only you lost the volumes, but maybe fixed-cost dilution was impacted. So assuming the plant running full-year, and the gas prices you have fixed, what is the cost per ton, more or less, that you imagine for this business? And then, in the long term, how to think about this business? Right now you have fixed costs—obviously, this is a great thing because prices are going up, but it could have gone the other way. So my question is how to think about this business. Is this a business where we will see very high operating leverage, so you work with fixed prices? Is that going to be the business model going forward, or when the contract expires, would you be more spot? Just to understand how to model this long term. And if I may, on the farming business, maybe if you can quickly comment on the outlook for next season. I know it is maybe too early to say, but any improvements you are seeing for the business? And I think you are close to the administration—Argentina administration. Any views on any clue you have on if Argentina, with all the reforms passing, will be able to lower further the export taxes? How to think about that? Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Thank you, Lucas, for your question. On the second question, in terms of the farming business, in Argentina with this new administration, everything is improving. We are very optimistic on that, and that is why we feel comfortable that with this Food and Agriculture business in general, being able to compete domestically and in the export market will also be very positive. The taxes are being reduced. So that is a very relevant improvement that is going on within Argentina and that will certainly help this business to continue to improve. And that is why I mentioned before that we are still optimistic on this farming and agriculture business for Argentina and Uruguay in the coming future. Going to the first question and regarding the fertilizer and the urea and how we think about the prices, again, this is a very long-term view. This is within our DNA, as we were saying at the beginning. We believe we are the lowest-cost producers in the region of urea when we think on replacing all these imports of 10 million tons of urea that are happening every year in South America. We feel very comfortable that we are within the lower-cost producers, and we have analyzed all over the world the different plants that are producing urea, the different prices of gas, etc., and we are very confident on being the lowest-cost producer. What is this cash cost of producing urea today with this level of 1.3 million tons to be produced in the plant—that is what we think that we can produce stabilized—is within $180 to $190 per ton of urea. And, as you have seen, the prices are much higher, and we do not think that level of price is possible in order to compete with urea in this region. So we are very confident to be the local producer in terms of producing urea; that is why we got involved. We were not seeing that the prices were going to be at this level as we are today. We were always thinking on this long-term view that we have when we get involved into a business.

Lucas Ferreira

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your microphone is open.

Perfect. And just to follow up, the $180–$190 includes SG&A as well, so is it kind of EBITDA cost?

Mariano Bosch

Management

No, no. I am talking about cost of product. I am talking about the cash cost.

Lucas Ferreira

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your microphone is open.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Julia Rizzo with Morgan Stanley. Your microphone is open.

Julia Rizzo

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your microphone is open.

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for picking up my question. I would like to hear your thoughts on what you know about the global fertilizer, especially urea production—the dynamics within supply cuts around the key regions close to the Middle East. If you know about anything about supply cuts or supply reduction, and how that can affect or last in the market. And derivative to that is: as the planting season is starting in the Northern Hemisphere, especially Europe and India, and I think, less likely, the U.S., do we know if they have enough urea supplies for this season? Can you give us a sense of the supply-demand disruption that we could be seeing now in urea, given the war and Strait of Hormuz situation?

Mariano Bosch

Management

Hi, Julia. Thank you for your question. Of course, we are following this very closely. There is a lack of urea that is very relevant. Thirty percent of what comes into South America comes from the Middle East and through the Hormuz Strait. So there will be a lack of supply, and that can impact even further what has already been impacted. And also, there is a time needed in order for that to reach—60 days at least since you ask for the urea until it comes to be used. So, yes, it is going to be difficult to supply the whole needs for South America and for the Americas in general. The Americas are importers of urea globally.

Julia Rizzo

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your microphone is open.

So you are saying that it could be a supply shock? Given current inventory levels on the ground, I do not know how much the industry holds inventory for the next season.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Inventories are very low. The inventories are very low.

Julia Rizzo

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your microphone is open.

In South America, but in the Northern Hemisphere, are inventories enough? The Northern Hemisphere, let us say?

Mariano Bosch

Management

The Northern Hemisphere is also under pressure in terms of being importers of urea. I do not remember exactly how much they import, but they import like 5 million tons.

Renato Junqueira Pereira

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your microphone is open.

Yes.

Julia Rizzo

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your microphone is open.

And usually, they do not have enough inventories, like a three-month, four-month inventory. I do not know what is the level—inventories in the chain—what usually works.

Mariano Bosch

Management

In China, it is relatively low.

Julia Rizzo

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your microphone is open.

Okay. Interesting. So, yes, that could mean that prices will stay higher for longer until supply gets back on track, right?

Mariano Bosch

Management

Of course, we do not know, but that is a clear possibility.

Julia Rizzo

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your microphone is open.

Okay. I have another question on sugar. If you could help me: I would like to hear your thoughts. Recently, we saw a decline in—or a revision lower from—the Asian harvest. We have Brazil, of course, naturally going max ethanol. We have oil prices reaching over $100—actually, futures even higher. Why do you think it is driven—it is kind of putting up this pressure on sugar prices compared to other commodities, and even a strength in the fundamentals? And what do you see that turning?

Mariano Bosch

Management

That is a good question, Julia. We also do not clearly understand. Renato just explained, the sugar production in Brazil, which is one of the main producers worldwide, is going to be maximizing ethanol. So we expect that to be also transferring to sugar prices in the medium term, but we are not seeing that yet. Renato, can you add something else?

Renato Junqueira Pereira

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your microphone is open.

Well, I think it is exactly that. Once the market realizes that Brazil is maximizing ethanol, it is going to have less margin to switch the mix towards sugar, and then the market is going to be more balanced. Then we think there is a potential to increase the price of sugar in the second semester. And if you think in the midterm, we think that the supply is going to decrease because today the sugar price is below most countries' production costs, including most players in Brazil. So we think that it is going to have an impact on supply, so price should react next year, and then probably the low price is not going to last that long.

Julia Rizzo

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your microphone is open.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer section. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Bosch for any closing remarks.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Thank you all for participating today, and we hope to see you in our next conferences.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect at this time and have a nice day.