Jeremy Welter
Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your questions
Yes This is Jeremy. Yes, we haven’t – we’ve always had the position of not giving guidance and that was in times where there was probably a lot more – what we thought was a lot more certainty, obviously, we’re wrong. In February, when we thought there was certainly going forward or January of this year, and then a global pandemic it. But I can’t really comment on any guidance. But I can give you kind of what we’re seeing in terms of the markets and segments. And certainly, I think, our portfolio does help a little bit of trust, given that it’s pretty well diversified in terms of top 25 markets and then hotels outside the top 25 markets got a good level diversity of extended stay and select service and full service assets. And we don’t really have a lot of exposure on what you would call big box group pass hotels. There’s just a few of them that we have that do a decent amount of group business. But by and large, most of our hotels are either leisure, transient or business transient. And what we’ve seen, as I mentioned, is that every single week – week-over-week, the trend has gotten better. We’ve seen a little bit of a slowdown, just because of that second wave. But if you look at April, our April results were down 93% RevPAR, May was down 89%, and then June was down 82%. So that went 93%, 89%, 82%. And so in July, I would expect it, it would be in the somewhere in the 70% range. And then the question is, to your point on looking into Q3 and Q4, how does that change? And it’s hard for us to say, I mean, unfortunately, typically, in a – in the good times, our average booking window was three weeks. And today, it’s probably three days. So there’s just not a lot of clarity. But what I can tell you is that, even our internal forecasts that we’ve had when we’ve been putting together our models and cash positions and what we thought was going to happen. We’ve always exceeded that. We’ve always been higher than what we thought it was going to be. And I think that trend will probably continue. So we’re assuming the worst, we’re prepared for the worst. And fortunately, we’re seeing a little bit better than what we’re preparing our teams for. So I think eventually, in – people want to travel. I think, you’ll see travel resume, people are resilient, and we’re starting to see that, as I mentioned, certainly in July and a little bit in August as well. And so I would expect it, you’ll see sequential growth month-over-month, week-over-week. There might be a few patterns where maybe it flattens out for a little bit, but we’re talking weeks, not months, and certainly not years. That helps.