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Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, Jan 25, 2024

$297.76

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Fiscal 2024 Second Quarter Earnings Call for Applied Industrial Technologies. My name is Rob and I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Ryan Cieslak, Director of Investor Relations and Treasury. Ryan, you may begin.

Ryan Cieslak

Analyst

Okay. Thanks Rob, and good morning to everyone on the call. This morning we issued our earnings release and supplemental investor deck detailing our second quarter results. Both of these documents are available in the Investor Relations section of applied.com. Before we begin, just a reminder, we'll discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements are based on current expectations subject to the certain risks and uncertainties, including those detailed in our SEC filings. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements. In addition, the conference call will use non-GAAP financial measures, which are subject to the qualifications referenced in those documents. Our speakers today include Neil Schrimsher, Applied's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dave Wells, our Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll turn it over to Neil.

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us. As usual, I'll begin with some perspective and highlights on the key drivers of our results, including an update on industry conditions as well as expectations going forward. Dave will follow with more detail on the quarter's financials and provide additional color on our outlook and guidance, and then I'll close with some final thoughts. Overall, our team continues to execute at a high level, which was apparent in the second quarter, considering ongoing normalization in industrial activity industrywide. Of note, sales exceeded our expectations and held relatively firm over the prior year on an organic basis, despite facing our most difficult quarterly growth comparison of the year. This was with continuing muted demand within the technology sector as we highlighted last quarter. Nonetheless, we sustained margin expansion and earnings growth against this backdrop. Part of this performance reflects normalizing LIFO expense that is providing a clear view of our underlying margin progress and earnings profile, as well as sustained operational execution and lower interest expense. Results include some temporary mix headwinds, which Dave will discuss in more detail in a moment, as well as ongoing investments supporting our growth potential moving forward. In addition, we generated solid cash flow during the quarter that puts us on track for a record cash generation year. This is inclusive of ongoing investment in working capital year-to-date as we continue to support our growth opportunities, while strong cash flow has always been a hallmark of our business. We believe our cash generation potential has been enhanced by our expanding margin profile, ongoing efficiency gains and working capital initiatives. This positive trend that's augmenting our growth capacity and capital deployment opportunities moving forward. This was demonstrated in the second quarter where we started…

Dave Wells

Analyst

Thanks, Neil. Just as a reminder, consistent with prior quarters, we have posted a quarterly supplemental investor presentation to our investor site for your additional reference as we recap our most recent quarter performance. Turning now to details of our financial performance in the quarter. Consolidated sales increased 1.6% over the prior year quarter. Acquisitions contributed 140 basis points and foreign currency translation had a positive 30 basis points impact. The number of selling days in the quarter was consistent year-over-year. Netting these factors sales declined a modest 0.1% on an organic basis. As it relates to pricing, we estimate the contribution of product pricing on year-over-year sales growth was in the low-single-digits for the quarter and slightly below last quarter. Turning now to sales performance by segment as highlighted on Slides 7 and 8 of the presentation, sales in our Service Centers segment increased 1.4% year-over-year on an organic basis when excluding a 1.6% positive impact from acquisitions and a 0.4% positive impact from foreign currency translation. Growth was strongest across our U.S. Service Center network and MSS consumables business, partially offset by more muted sales trends across our international operations. Segment operating income increased 6% over the prior year, while segment operating margin of 12.5% was up 28 basis points year-over-year. Within our Engineered Solutions segment sales decreased 2% over the prior year quarter. This includes a positive 1 point of growth from acquisitions. On an organic basis segment sales decreased 3% year-over-year, which was largely in line with our expectations. As mentioned earlier and highlighted last quarter, segment growth continues to be adversely impacted by current technology and market demand, which negatively impacted the year-over-year change in segment sales by approximately 400 basis points in the quarter, consistent with the last quarter's impact. In addition, sales within…

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

Thanks Dave. So to wrap up, I'm proud of the Applied team and our performance through the first half of fiscal 2024. We're delivering on our commitments and making strong progress towards our interim financial objectives of $5.5 billion of revenue and 13% EBITDA margins. Near-term we expect the underlying demand environment to remain muted as customers settle into the New Year and operate at a steady pace pending a more defined direction on the economy. This is partially reflected in January sales trending down an estimated low-single-digit percent on an organic basis over the prior year. I would note this is against an over 20% prior year comparison as we experienced higher than normal scheduled maintenance activity and capital spending from our service center customers last January, and weather is also having a negative year-over-year impact on January to date sales. That said I remain constructive on our setup moving forward given the potential for reaccelerating sales and earnings growth as the second half of Fiscal 2024 plays out and into fiscal 2025. This considers several positive dynamics including prior year comparisons becoming less difficult particular across our operations tied to the technology vertical. We also believe break-fix activity could reaccelerate across our service center network into the spring in summer as production schedules ramp back up following the recent operational reset and some deferred maintenance activity over the past several quarters. Incremental infrastructure spending and related stimulus should further support our sales momentum, with many of our Top 30 end markets tied either directly or indirectly to this megatrend. In addition, we expect technical MRO and capital spending requirements to remain heightened as customers modernize equipment and expand production facilities to meet a multi-year secular growth cycle across North America that's just beginning. We see many powerful forces…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of David Manthey from Baird. Your line is open.

David Manthey

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, guys.

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

Good morning.

David Manthey

Analyst

So typical execution in a tough environment, should we assume that the upside versus the downside of your guidance range is mostly based on timing and the magnitude of macro outcomes here? Because, Dave, you mentioned in the outlook that you're assuming the industrial market continues to moderate in the near-term, and you cited weakness in January, which is consistent with what we're hearing from others? But approximately when does your guidance assume that the macro bottoms out and starts to improve here?

Dave Wells

Analyst

We'd say Q3 here again, potentially down low-single-digits to flat. That does assume that continued moderation. I think we've got some things we think about secular tailwinds and some of the other drivers, as well as some opportunities in terms of shipment timing that are still somewhat unclear on the automation side. I'd say we'd start to see kind of assume a bit of recovery in Q4, but obviously continue to be very optimistic for our position, the secular tailwinds benefiting us and the opportunities in front of us as we move into our Fiscal 2025.

David Manthey

Analyst

Okay. And could you tell us what the revenues of Bearing Distributors and Cangro were in the second quarter, and were those about as expected for you?

Dave Wells

Analyst

Those were about as expected. That added about 140 basis points of growth to the Service Centers segment as we had indicated in the script.

David Manthey

Analyst

Yeah. Okay. And then, Dave, following up on the – could you talk about the source of other income that $2.9 million and how we should think about modeling ahead?

Dave Wells

Analyst

Yeah. Sure. Here again that's really the offset that you're seeing to the hit we would have taken in SD&A in terms of that deferred comp, the impact of fluctuations in the investments related to our deferred comp plan. So net neutral from the overall P&L standpoint; but a good guy another income a hit to SD&A. So here again, you start to normalize that SD&A spend for the organic view of the world, and then strip out some of that noise, which is not operational spend essentially flat. So again, that's all driven by changes in investment returns on that deferred comp plan.

David Manthey

Analyst

And that should happen next quarter?

Dave Wells

Analyst

Yeah. I can't say that, obviously, it depends on what happens to the market. Largely market driven in terms of the impact plus or down, it can go either way, obviously, but once again a net neutral to the P&L.

David Manthey

Analyst

Got it. Okay. I'll get back in the queue. Thanks, guys.

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

Thanks David.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Dankert from Loop Capital. Your line is open.

Chris Dankert

Analyst

Hey, morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I guess, first off, as we're looking into the back half of the fiscal year here, are you expecting ES sales growth to be fairly similar to kind of Service Centers sales growth in the back half? And I assume that's part of why that mixed headwind improves sequentially into the third quarter here?

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

Yeah. We would expect the gap to close in the second half and be more similar, though we could see the service centers be above but perhaps the rate of improvement in the engineered solutions to be higher in the back half.

Chris Dankert

Analyst

Got it. That's helpful. And then I think the implicit guide you guys have given on the third quarter is a little bit softer than at least I was expecting, particularly with seasonality in your favor. Is it really that technology piece that's still driving some of the caution, or is it broader than just technology here?

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

I think one. Hey, we want to take a prudent approach as we come into it, right. We're mindful of January, but its early still in the month on that side. And just our view on market assumptions for the second half as earlier would be kind of the low-single-digits from a market conditions down with that improving as we get into the fourth quarter in the side. So really it's a prudent approach as we go through. Obviously, we're going to be working initiatives to be better.

Chris Dankert

Analyst

Got it. Makes sense. Makes sense. And then maybe just last for me. You cited some of the internal sales initiatives and growth opportunities; obviously we're aware of automation, some of the advanced technology pieces. Anything else you'd call out as kind of something that's exciting you in terms of those internal sales initiatives and kind of what you're looking at internally to kind of juice growth a little bit here?

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

I think they really go across the business. I think the work in the service center on sales process, use of data, the execution of that site is very positive. They're bringing the cross selling potential of the engineered solutions really in fluid power, in flow control and now the ramping opportunity that we have in automation is positive for the service centers, for our customers and engineered solutions. And then some of the things we touched on in Fluid Power, not the biggest impact in the next quarter, but we will see more advanced solutions, we will see more electrification. We're making those investments in engineering capabilities and facilities that can help with technology throughput, that's going to be positive. And then the work that we have, new expanded facility in the Pacific Northwest around automation and some of that build out of the capabilities will play well for us, we believe as we conclude this fiscal year, but really into the set up for Fiscal 25 and beyond.

Chris Dankert

Analyst

Understood. Thanks so much for the color there. Really appreciate it.

Dave Wells

Analyst

Mighty Chris too. The January comp is a difficult one. We were about 20% prior year January. So as you think about the context of that low-single-digit year-to-date or January projection.

Chris Dankert

Analyst

Got it. I appreciate that for sure. Well, thank you. I'll jump back in line here.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Newman from KeyBanc. Your line is open.

Ken Newman

Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys.

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

Good morning.

Ken Newman

Analyst

I want to jump on the back of that last question from Chris here on January. I'm just curious, any color on just how the cadence of monthly sales comps from last year kind of progresses through the quarter, 20% plus here in January. Do we see a pretty substantial step down in that monthly ads comp starting in February, or is that a March driven number?

Dave Wells

Analyst

Yeah. I'd say directionally, I think it would go roughly February, 15% type, mid-teens type increase last year and March still double digit in that side. So, but that would be kind of the step down of that cadence.

Ken Newman

Analyst

And then into the fourth quarter is where you really start to see the comps become even more easy?

Dave Wells

Analyst

Yes, right. That makes sense.

Ken Newman

Analyst

So my next question here is, I guess I'm trying to make sense of the commentary on technology versus the guide for 3Q, right, because if I remember correctly, Neil, you kind of mentioned sales impact [ph] are up mid-teens sequentially. It sounds like the orders, they are stabilizing here or were stabilizing in 2Q, but you still expect that to be a headwind here. Maybe help me square that comment a little bit and then maybe also some color if you could, just on where in technology are you seeing that biggest improvement? Is it in the semiconductor side? Is it data center? Is it consumer electronics? Any help there would be great.

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

Sure. So we think about it, right? We've talked about the magnitude of the headwind, total business, the 100 basis points or in the engineered solution segment, which is where a predominant amount of the activity would be the 400 basis points in that side. Just as we look ahead at the cycle of some of those projects or activity and release, we think that trend can continue – could continue in the current quarter, this third quarter as we go along. If we look back at past cycles, there typically are four to maybe five quarters in that side. So we take that as a positive. So we think there's a positive influence, some relief coming. Obviously, the comparisons will get a little easier in that as well to help in the second half. As I look at it today, probably more start to be fourth quarter impact and then as we go into 2025. And so places that we are playing, one would be to support wafer fab equipment and some of those producers and providers. Obviously, we can be a little bit ahead of that activity. But I think most are projecting that re-acceleration to occur late in this calendar year or into 2025. And so we could get a little earlier there. And then we've been active from data warehouse and cooling systems and material movement in some of those projects, we would expect that to continue. But I think that the pace of some of that implementation has been a little uneven and we probably see more of that coming either potentially in our fourth quarter of this fiscal year or as we get into our 2025.

Dave Wells

Analyst

As we said, Ken, we were encouraged though in the quarter regarding the sequential increases that we saw both in order rates and shipments on the automation side of the business. Just a very difficult comparison that masked some of that from the prior year. So on a two-year stack basis to upload double digits organically in that business in the most recent quarter.

Ken Newman

Analyst

Right. No, that makes sense. Maybe one more from me. Obviously, the balance sheet is essentially unlevered and it sounds like you guys are still open for business as it relates to M&A here, just maybe any color on the pipeline and what's your take on potentially tapping the balance sheet for the share repurchases even more if those deals get delayed?

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

So we are active in from an M&A standpoint to our priorities that we're consistent on in the Engineered Solutions. So across fluid power and flow control and automation, much like we did in the last quarter the nice bolt-on to the service center. So we'll continue to look and be active there as well. I would expect more M&A activity this fiscal year. And as we go into 2025 on the side we were active in share repurchase. We would expect that to continue this fiscal year, the dividend increase that we just announced. And then some of the things that we will make while they're not outsized in the amount, but we have more growth investments and that can support our organic that we think will be favorable as we go into 2025 and beyond. And so we'll look to continue. So we're knowledgeable, we're aware of where we're at. We'll continue to work the growth opportunities that we have, acquisitions and organic growth into that side. And then return money to the shareholders via the share repurchase and dividend.

Ken Newman

Analyst

Excellent. Thanks for the color.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Manthey from Baird. Your line is open.

David Manthey

Analyst

Yes. Thanks for taking a few more questions here. What are MSS revenues today and of those sales, what percentage is delivered via vending technology?

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

We've not disclosed discreetly Dave, the kind of the relative contribution of MSS. There is a component of that business, that does – and does the vetting machine piece of the equation. Certainly, a profitable business for us, one that's accretive from the mix standpoint and a nice complement to the position you got the one-stop shopping, we provide across the other industrial solutions so we can be all to customers. So – but nonetheless, piece of the business we like just do not talk separately and have not disclosed what the revenue contribution is there.

David Manthey

Analyst

Okay. Fair enough. What percentage of ES segments sales would you say are capital investments versus expense items for your customers? I know there's a number of different verticals within ES and there's probably different expense capital dynamics there.

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

Yes. That's probably another one. Just for pure CapEx I don't think we've talked about individually. I would say that it is going to be lower in our Service Center segment. And then I think the places that it would show up for us would be around flow control in some of those projects and then perhaps around the automation systems less in fluid power given some of that work is supporting OEMs and their equipment that they are taking forward to the marketplace in that. So those are the places I'd say overall, Dave, my view is there's not such a capital project reliance or input into the business that impacts it through on the service centers are really heavily across the Engineered Solutions side of the business.

David Manthey

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for that. And then last question on inflationary pressures, and I hope this is understandable. But when you think about the ratio between your COGS inflation and the sort of potential benefits there and then the SD&A inflation that you're experiencing and the negatives there, is there any significant difference in that, what I would call a spread between those two things? I'm just meaning are the inflationary pressures that you're experiencing as a company more intense, less intense, or the same as they were relative to the inflationary pressures that you are enjoying, I guess on the top line?

Dave Wells

Analyst

Yes. Let me see if I can answer at well, a couple ways or a few areas of the consideration. I think overall and in the quarter, I think we touched on, right. From a price cost standpoint, I'm pleased, right, slightly positive in that side. I think across our business and the operating teams, we're very mindful on the inflationary inputs to our operating side of the business and how we help ourselves in use of technology and other tools and shared services and such that can help us. And the investments that we talk about are really going to be in engineering talent and forward facing resources that can help with customers and customer solutions into that side. So I think overall, we are doing an effective job at the pricing to value and recognizing the importance of our solutions, especially at either an engineered solution or at the break fix time. And with that, we're also, as we shared on our SD&A results, doing a nice job of cost containment, it's showing up in some different areas of that kind of cost stack. But I'd say all in all, we're mindful of that. We see it coming and are working on the appropriate offsets.

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

I just remind you too, Dave, the times we don't – you see a bit of a lag in terms of when you see that read through is price realization specifically, especially as it pertains to some of the activity with some of our larger national accounts where there are those contractual arrangements, we've got vendor agreements because they want to participate with us in that business to absorb. And there's other mechanisms so that we're still able to grow margins during those inflationary periods even during the time where we're not able to pass on a price increases. So there's other mechanisms not coming through as price, day one, but where you'd see that offset before we're able to pass this price increases on. So may not be a one for one in terms of when it hits the top line read through versus the impact on COGS and SD&A.

David Manthey

Analyst

Got it. All right. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

At this time, I'm showing we have no further questions. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Schrimsher for any closing remarks.

Neil Schrimsher

Analyst

I just want to thank everyone for joining us today and we look forward to talking with you throughout the quarter.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.