Earnings Labs

Acadia Realty Trust (AKR)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 31, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2023 Acadia Realty Trust Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, John Demoulas. Please go ahead.

John Demoulas

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for the third quarter 2023 Acadia Realty Trust earnings conference call. My name is John Demoulas and I am an analyst in our finance department. Before we begin, please be aware that statements made during the call that are not historical may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, and actual results may differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements. Due to a variety of risks and uncertainties, including those disclosed in the company's most recent Form 10-K and other periodic filings with the SEC, forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this call, October 31, 2023, and the company undertakes no duty to update them. During this call, management may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including funds from operations and net operating income. Please see Acadia's earnings press release posted on its website for reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures with the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Once the call becomes open for questions, we ask that you limit your first round to two questions per caller to give everyone the opportunity to participate. You may ask further questions by reinserting yourself into the queue, and we will answer as time permits. Now, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Ken Bernstein, President and Chief Executive Officer, who will begin today's management remarks.

Ken Bernstein

Analyst

Thanks, John, great job. Welcome everyone, happy Halloween. I'll give a few comments, then I'll turn the call over to AJ Levine who heads up our Leasing and Development division, then to John, and after that, John, Stuart, AJ, and I will take questions. As you can see in our earnings release, we had another solid quarter driven by strong same-store growth of nearly 6%. And this growth is hitting our bottom-line earnings as well. I'll let AJ discuss the leasing environment and our achievements last quarter, but our goal of creating superior top-line growth and having that growth translate into bottom-line earnings growth remains on track. On previous calls, I've walked through in detail the drivers of improving tenant demand. So I'll try not to repeat myself today other than to say that even with current macroeconomic concerns, the consumer remains fairly resilient and more importantly, while retailers' quarterly results may vary, tenants are looking past this short-term uncertainty and are continuing to execute on their multi-year growth goals. And now that we are a couple years past the lockdowns of 2020, it's worth taking a moment to look at how the retail real estate recovery is playing out. Some of what we're seeing in our results is well understood and broadly discussed, but other components are only recently beginning to be appreciated. The suburban segment of our portfolio was the first to bounce back from the early days of COVID. The resilience in this segment is pretty well understood. Going forward, we expect market rent growth to continue at a similar rate to economic growth. And the key issue here will be increasing capital expenditures and operating expenses, which is reducing net effective rent growth. Then in terms of street retail, first we saw our rebound in that…

AJ Levine

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Ken. Good morning everyone. So just to introduce myself, I oversee Acadia's Leasing and Development team, which is ultimately responsible for driving organic NOI growth for our $5 billion open-air portfolio, ranging from best-in-class street assets to open-air shopping centers, both wholly owned and in our funds. And because of our diverse portfolio, we have a unique perspective on what's happening, across asset classes and within retail. And I and my team have direct access to a wide range of retailers from top-line luxury to grocery, F&B, specialty retailers, all the way to our discounters from Cartier to Whole Foods, from Lululemon to TJX. So, today what I'll discuss is what we're seeing at the asset level on our streets, in our shopping centers, and what we're hearing from our retailers. And what we're seeing today is incredibly strong demand from retailers across the board. As Ken mentioned, our retailers continue to tell us that because of their performance over the past 18 to 24 months, and because of their focus on the importance of the physical store towards achieving and sustaining profitability, they are seeing past any short-term choppiness and remain focused on long-term growth. We're also seeing a continuation of the landlord-friendly supply-demand dynamic that started in 2022 and that's again driven by strong retailer performance, a flight to quality, healthy tenants in terms of both balance sheets and rent-to-sales ratios, and record low levels of supply. And that's all translating into consistent rent growth in most of our core markets and helping us make significant progress towards our goal of increasing core NOI by $30 to $40 million over the next several years. So what does this progress look like? We'll start out with leasing volumes. And just to clarify, my team is completely agnostic…

John Gottfried

Analyst

Thanks, AJ, and good morning. We had another strong quarter. As AJ walked us through, the volume of deals and the rates we are achieving are continuing to exceed our expectations. And notwithstanding the rapid rise in interest rates, we have substantially mitigated our earnings exposure for the next several years through our use of interest rate swaps and managed debt maturities. And this gives us increased confidence to reaffirm our multi-year same-store NOI growth projections and more importantly that this top line growth will continue dropping to our bottom-line earnings. Now I'll provide some further color on each of these and starting with our third quarter results. We reported FFO of $0.27 per share. It's worth reminding everyone that as we had anticipated, embedded in our third quarter results is the NOI impact from the tenant rollover at North Michigan Avenue and Bed Bath and Beyond that we have been discussing for the last several calls. And with this known rollover, our third quarter core NOI is at its trough with meaningful growth in front of us as our signed but not yet open pipeline starts to kick in. And in a few moments, I'm going to walk through a preliminary 2024 earnings bridge that highlights our current expectation of once again delivering strong same-store NOI growth as well as year-over-year earnings growth in 2024 and beyond. In terms of our 2023 full-year earnings expectations, for the third time this year, we have increased our FFO to $1.26 at the midpoint after adjusting for the $0.05 gain that we discussed last quarter. And at $1.26, this results in year-over-year earnings growth of about 6%. Now moving to same-store NOI. Driven by the profitable lease up within our street portfolio, we reported same-store NOI growth of 5.8% for the quarter,…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Floris van Dijkum with Compass Point. Your line is open.

Floris van Dijkum

Analyst

Hey, good -- I guess good morning guys. Thank you for taking my question. So again, another quarter of solid NOI growth. And it sounds like most of that NOI growth is going to -- should translate into earnings growth, which is going to set you apart from some of your peers over the next 12 months, I suspect. Maybe touch upon some of the balance sheet initiatives. And also, you talked about some potential asset recycling on a neutral basis. Would you also be looking to potentially reduce exposure to a market like Chicago in that instance?

Ken Bernstein

Analyst

All right. So let's do that actually in reverse order, John. Let me start off in terms of exposure. Markets like Chicago would be logical for us on a disciplined basis for us to reduce our exposure. We don't have anything against Chicago in some of our markets, Rush/Walton, Armitage Avenue, as AJ mentioned, are leasing very well. But we do need to recognize that in the public markets having too much exposure to any one city and some of the headwinds that Chicago faces would make sense to reduce that. So that would be a market that you should expect us on a disciplined basis at the right time to reduce our exposure. As it relates to the balance sheet and other initiatives, John, why don't you cover those?

John Gottfried

Analyst

Yeah. Hi, Floris. I think as I mentioned in my remarks, I think it's -- our target is going to be to do this in an earnings-neutral fashion. So think of things such as like in Albertsons where there's no EBITDA coming from that as we monetize that, that will be used to deleverage as well as retain cash flow and with the earnings growth in front of us, that will be also another source to deleverage along with a couple of other things that we have in the works that's getting us there.

Floris van Dijkum

Analyst

And then if I can have a follow-up on San Francisco maybe a little bit. Obviously, you've still got these two really neighborhood centers, if you will, at one with the Whole Foods that still not got its certificate of occupancy. Maybe if you can give an update on that and also maybe give an update on what the status is on the former Bed Bath space at 555 Ninth?

Ken Bernstein

Analyst

Sure. So let me set the table and then AJ, in terms of leasing progress, leasing demand. City Center, as we've talked about in the past, Whole Foods is working through their local approvals. Thankfully, with some of the changes that have been occurring, we have seen an increase in community support for their opening and an increase in support with the city. So Whole Foods is pleased with how that is progressing, and it remains on schedule for an approval process next year. The leasing around that is relatively small shop space, but that will be a nice incremental boost as well. 555 Ninth, AJ, I'll let you give some color there. But to remind everyone, we had an oversized Bed Bath & Beyond that we recaptured below-market lease, created some earnings noise this year that I apologize about, but we are going to split that in two since it was two-level space, two junior anchors, one on each level, and then shop space. Why don't you talk about that a little further, AJ?

AJ Levine

Analyst

Yeah, sure. So as Ken said, 555 Ninth it's a redevelopment. It always has been. Bed Bath was in 75,000 feet on two levels and the plan has always been to split that up into three spaces, right? Two anchors Ken mentioned and then the small shop space where you can really drive rents. So even in the best of times, I think it takes a while for that to come together. We are off to a great start at the center and that we leased the box on the second open-air portion of the center to the container store, and we are getting good preliminary interest on filling portions of that Bed Bath box.

Floris van Dijkum

Analyst

Maybe if I…

Ken Bernstein

Analyst

Happy Halloween, Floris.

Floris van Dijkum

Analyst

Yeah, sorry. Thank you. Maybe last question. Thoughts on, City Point looks like it's going to be a massive driver that's not going to be captured in your same-store pool. At what points -- what are the steps required for you to have that be part of your same-store pool? Is it increased ownership? Is it more stabilization? Because I mean, $7 million of SNO pipeline at City Point alone sounds pretty substantial.

Ken Bernstein

Analyst

Yes. Floris, so here's how we're thinking about it. It's really consistent with the way we do our same-store. We will put -- so the key driver will be once that hit stabilization will be the year after stabilization to not create what I think would be an inappropriate same-store growth in that situation. So I think that would be one is getting the asset to a level of stabilization. And secondly, as you pointed out, this is still residing within a fund and ultimate ownership is still being played out. So I think that will be a secondary factor, but I think it's really getting to the point of stabilization. And really, what we want to use our same-store metric for is that's going to be a level of growth that's going to hit our bottom line. And those are the types of assets that are going to drive that.

Floris van Dijkum

Analyst

Thanks, Ken.

Operator

Operator

One moment for next question. Our next question comes from Ki Bin Kim with Truist. Your line is open.

Ki Bin Kim

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open.

Thank you, and good morning. So on the $0.30 to $0.34 of a recurring quarterly FFO run rate, how much of that $0.32 is transactional income or promote income?

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open.

Yeah. So Kim, what I will just start with is preliminary. So we're not giving full detailed guidance. But what I would say is you should expect to see stability from that portion of our business for the next couple of years. So if I -- again, not giving guidance, I would say it would be a similar level to what we have this year.

Ki Bin Kim

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open.

Okay. And going back to your comments about possibly monetizing some of your non-contributing assets, how does that manifest itself ultimately? And are the book value reflective of what you think those assets might be worth? Or as we get closer to cut that time point, could there be kind of further impairment charges?

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open.

Yeah. So I would say that our book value should be the best proxy as the accounting rules would drive us to impair otherwise. So I would think book value would be an appropriate metric.

Ki Bin Kim

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Linda Tsai

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Hi. What percentage of your $8.3 million signed but not occupied are high-value street rents? And how does that compare to 2Q's SNO?

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Yeah. So, Linda, I think just given the leases that AJ walked us through, I would say, disproportionately amount both in the -- compared to prior quarters as well as the $8.3 million. I'd have to do the math, but in my head, it's in the 75%-plus range, I would estimate, which is a higher percentage.

Linda Tsai

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

And then in terms of monetizing the lower growth assets next year, just wondering if those sales you expect them to be chunky in terms of first half versus second half?

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Stay tuned, Linda. I think we'll give more color on that. But I think what I would say from a run rate, I'm just picking the midpoint, the $0.32, I think between those range of those three drivers is the way to think about it.

Linda Tsai

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Thanks. And just one last one for AJ. AJ, I think you've spoken in the past about the high demand of luxury retailers as they move outside of department stores to better control their brands. What do discussions with those retailers look like today as sales -- there are some reports that they're slowing down a bit?

AJ Levine

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Yeah. So those discussions continue. We continue to see those luxury brands and some of the aspirational brands pivot away from wholesale and department stores and really establish their own brick-and-mortar presence where they can control the narrative, where they can interface with the customer directly. As I had said, because of their performance over the last two years, frankly, and because they've acknowledged the critical nature of that physical store, most of them continue to see past that short-term choppiness, Linda, and are still focusing on long-term growth. So no slowdown in that sense.

Linda Tsai

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Craig Mailman with Citi. Your line is open.

Craig Mailman

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning. Ken, maybe I want to go back to your earlier comment on where kind of the mark-to-market is on some of your street assets given the rising rents, particularly in New York, and as we think about that versus where interest rates are going and what that could do to kind of stabilize cap rates here. I'm just kind of curious, your thoughts as you kind of look at your blended implied cap rate here in the 7s and half of your portfolio is the Street assets. Kind of how you connect the dots on that valuation versus what you're seeing from a mark-to-market and CapEx needs perspective versus other portfolios in the market or kind of private market comps?

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open.

Yeah. And there are certainly, as you just pointed out, a host of factors to try to digest at this moment in time, let me do my best. First of all, the growth, which was what I was discussing and that piece of it, in a period where interest rates are high, where the market is confused, where macro events seem to take control versus micro events like growth. It is hard to say here, what is the value of an asset that's growing at 5% a year versus assets that might be more stable, growing at 1% or 2%. And I think there is that confusion right now. So I'm not going to tell you, well, this is the cap rate you should ascribe to that. But over any extended period of time, if you see more growth, we all know that the markets will reward that. Second point, CapEx. We've been talking about this for a while, and there is a meaningful distinction or at least there was a meaningful distinction between the CapEx expenditure relative to rent in our suburban portfolio versus in our streets. It's as a ratio of rent, higher rent to CapEx, it's much healthier in the streets. That used to be the case. Now that's the case times 2 or 3 because not only have CapEx gone up due to inflation, but the interest cost to carry that CapEx has gone up as well. And thus, that distinction is also one that we are, as an industry, only beginning to digest. Third and final point. Your guesstimate of what inflation looks like over the next five, 10 years is as good as mine, probably better. We're going to operate under the assumption that it's going to be more important going forward to capture NOI growth, sooner rather than later. And the distinction I make between our suburban centers and our street retail and AJ certainly touched on this as well. In the streets, we have higher contractual growth. I think that's going to become more important. In the streets, we have fair market value resets. I think that's going to become more important. And in the streets, we have less CapEx. So that's a long-winded way of saying who the heck knows where values are. The markets are certainly debating it. But we think that over the next year or two, the markets will settle down and they will recognize the importance of growth and less CapEx, especially if we go through an era of higher growth, which should be good for our rents, good for our tenants, and we should be able to deliver on that piece for that segment of our portfolio. So that's a long-winded way, Craig, of trying to touch on all those pieces in a very confusing time period.

Craig Mailman

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open.

I very much appreciate the thoughts. And I guess this leads to the question because you guys were able to pick off some of these street assets coming on the financial crisis you noted, right. But maybe even in distress with some of the mark-to-market pricing on a going in may not look as good as people would think. But I guess, how do you guys prepare the Street or potentially communicate that from a long-term kind of growth, either earnings or NAV accretion, if maybe you're using some proceeds from potentially some higher cap rate asset sales just to kind of circle the square on the long-term attributes versus maybe the short-term dilution? And kind of how do you -- kind of you view the importance of that in your decision-making?

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open.

Yeah. So let me be clear. I don't want to spook anyone to think that what I'm about to say in any way means brace yourself for short-term dilution because I think we can avoid that. But, when rents are moving as quickly as we've seen in some of these corridors, especially at a time where institutional capital seems to be ignoring that. The opportunity, just think about the 45% spread we saw over 24 months on Prince and Broadway, the opportunity to acquire assets at 2021 rents, when AJ has conviction about what he can deliver for 2024 rents, that arbitrage is pretty compelling, especially given that as opposed to a decade ago, there's just less competition there. And considering, again, our expertise, our access to a variety of capital sources. I am hopeful that this quiet period in terms of acquisitions ends and that we can find value-add opportunities where we can turn that tenancy around. But again, to be clear, we are not viewing this as the right time to add diluted transactions, and we would look forward to that accretion even if we have to wait 24, 36 months to go from 2021 leases to 2024.

Craig Mailman

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open.

And then just one last one. As we look in '24 and maybe ‘25, how many fair market value adjustment opportunities guys have?

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open.

John?

John Gottfried

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open.

Yeah. So, Craig, I would say the vast, vast majority of our streets have that provision. So I think we do have several of those coming up. So I think that's an opportunity for those. But I would say, over the next couple of years, constantly having role, and we're going to see that opportunity. And AJ sort of mentioned, we're working through some of that as we speak. So stay tuned.

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open.

Let me point out, but I don't want to continue this conversation too much. Just so everyone understands how fair market value resets work. The tenant has the option to renew at the greater of a contractual bump, which looks like most of our standard leases, the greater of that and fair market value. So the good news is it's not as though this appraises rents downward. However, we weren't talking about fair market value resets from 2017 until 2022 for all of the obvious reasons is that tenants weren't exercising. We were using that opportunity to cleanse streets like M Street in Georgetown. But now we are at that period where tenants are exercising those options. And the good news is in conversations with our retailers, their sales are strong enough that they're more than happy to exercise those options and continuing to see their business growth. So let's move on to the next question.

Operator

Operator

One moment. Our next question comes from Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Todd Thomas

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Hey, John, I appreciate the detail around 2024. Question, though, as we think about that $0.30 to $0.34, the quarterly run rate that you mentioned and the cadence of that throughout the year relative to $0.27 this quarter, should we expect the early part of the year to be below that $0.30 to $0.34 range and then the latter part of '24 at or above the higher end of the range as more SNO rank commences? Or your comments meant to suggest that you think you should be in that range throughout the entire year?

John Gottfried

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Yeah. So, Todd, I guess a couple of thoughts. One, I'll start with, we are not formally giving guidance, we're certainly not formally giving quarterly guidance. But what I would say, and I think right now, all else being equal, the $1.28 for the year is the one that measuring a bunch of different variables, we think we land at. And I would say that it is probably a fair assumption as the signed but not open pool does not all start on January 1, and our core is the biggest driver. There will be growth throughout the year on those leases that are already executed. But I think, again, without wanting to formally do it, I think picking the midpoint for an annualized number is as good of an estimate as we have right now.

Todd Thomas

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Okay. And then I'm not sure if I missed this in those comments as well. But so the 4Q implied guidance for this year, it's about $0.29, I believe, at the midpoint. Are there additional ACI stock sales embedded in the revised guidance for 4Q? And then can you just clarify your comments around the net promote income in 2024, whether that $0.01 to $0.02 is what you're anticipating each quarter or if that's incremental to what you achieved in '24?

John Gottfried

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Yeah. So I'll start with that one first. The $0.01 to $0.02 is incremental of the $0.27. And again, I would just look to -- we're in the $30 million range from our fund business, Todd, and we think that stays stable, whether it's a combination of fees, promotes, et cetera. We think that remains -- that remains very, very stable. In terms of promote, again, that's tied to a number of factors, including our taxable income, but we will be within our initial guidance range that we put out for promote at the beginning of the year.

Todd Thomas

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Okay. All right, that’s helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Jeffrey Spector with BofA Securities. Your line is open.

Lizzy Doykan

Analyst · BofA Securities. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. This is Lizzy Doykan on for Jeff. Just within the expectation for at least 5% same-store NOI growth in '24, should we assume a consistent level of contractual rent bump of 3% on street, possibly lower on suburban? And if you can't speak to exact numbers, maybe if you could just speak to expectations around how that should change based on the demand environment?

John Gottfried

Analyst · BofA Securities. Your line is open.

Yeah. So, Lizzy, I would say that the assumption, the 3% on the Street is absolutely still the norm. We do have some leases that AJ is able to get 4%, but I think it's fair to use the 3% in suburban. The typical is 10% every five years. So it averages just slightly below the 2% range. But I would say that our contractual growth is consistent with what we've done in the past.

Lizzy Doykan

Analyst · BofA Securities. Your line is open.

Okay. Great. And I just wanted to go back to Ken beginning comment around CapEx and leasing costs and keeping that under control for maintaining net effective rent growth. Just wondering if you could expand on that further and maybe give us a better idea of what the associated costs are for the $8 million in ABR from SNO and give us maybe a better idea of a real-time update on how those costs should be recognized when the rents come online, too.

John Gottfried

Analyst · BofA Securities. Your line is open.

Yeah. So why don't -- I'll take the piece of it, then I'll have Ken talk through the trends, Lizzy. So I'd say, again, given the good chunk of that $8.3 million signed net open is from the Street. And as AJ mentioned, our payback is a year or less. That's probably the way to think about that in terms of -- I think your question was when do we recognize those? We will pay them once it sort of cost different periods of time. But generally, when around the tenant when they take occupancy is whether it's the leasing commissions, we will pay those and then some of the upfront whether there's any build-out cost that we do, we pay those in advance of them. But I would say, for the most part, the good portion of those -- of that $8.3 million is Street, and we -- the upfront costs are less than a year around. So that's the way you could do the math. And on Suburbia, AJ, do you want to talk to that in terms of the cost you're seeing on suburbia, whether it's going to depend on whether it's in line space versus anchor, but I just want to give a quick update on the trends on the cost that you're seeing on the suburban side?

AJ Levine

Analyst · BofA Securities. Your line is open.

Yeah. So I mean the cost to put in a junior box have been elevated really for the last 24 months. So I'd say a typical junior box at this point is costing anywhere between $65 and $80 a foot to put in. And depending on where the rent is, that can be five to six years of payback. So it certainly is very pronounced sort of the shorter payback periods that we're seeing on the street just given where the rents are.

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · BofA Securities. Your line is open.

Let me end with some positive news in terms of all this. We are beginning to see some disinflation in terms of the actual costs to put in tenants in Suburbia. And while the cost to finance those build-outs has gone up with interest rates, when you look at the value per square foot, the price per foot or replacement cost, our retailers are recognizing staying or opening in these locations is critically important. So we're able to drive rents. And I think that the suburban component, while expensive, will still be a profitable part of our business.

Lizzy Doykan

Analyst · BofA Securities. Your line is open.

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Paulina Rojas Schmidt with Green Street. Your line is open.

Paulina Rojas Schmidt

Analyst · Green Street. Your line is open.

Good morning. My apologies if I missed this. But from a big picture perspective, when you're thinking about tenant failure next year, what's your best case scenario? And I want to have a very pretty big idea because some of your peers have been sharing that they are thinking about apology as an average year from a tenant sales perspective. And I wonder, given the scenario of uncertainty that we were facing, if you think that's reasonable or not.

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · Green Street. Your line is open.

Paulina, is your question on the credit side or the retaining, whether they're on renewals?

Paulina Rojas Schmidt

Analyst · Green Street. Your line is open.

The mix, I would say. So it could be a non-renewal or any type of OpEx, so both.

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · Green Street. Your line is open.

So I think that was within my $0.01 to $0.03 for our core. We have the luxury given our size that we could go space by space. And AJ and I talk sitting right next to each other, and we have a former point of view as to which -- whether tenants going to stick around. So we have that luxury giving our portfolio and being able to go space-by-space and he's talking to all of our tenants, along with his team every day. So we have that. And then what I would say is we have not seen any meaningful change of tenants that are maybe potentially not going to stay. If anything, I would say it's more biased towards tenants wanting to stay in their space, if I had to look at that. In terms of -- on the credit side, another thing I watch very closely is on reserves. Do we see slowdown in payments? Do we see the leasing or at least admin teams getting questions or calls around wanting to work through payment plans? We have not seen that tick up. Not to say it's not coming because we're not oblivious to what's happening, but we have not yet seen a pickup as some of the capital markets would suggest we potentially should not, but we have not seen that. So our reserves are appropriate in that $0.30 to $0.34 number, and we're conservative in those, but have not seen a follow-up.

AJ Levine

Analyst · Green Street. Your line is open.

And let me add a little color above and beyond our portfolio. Given the rise in interest rates, the likelihood is that tenant retention and/or tenant failure rate could be as likely to come from tenants' balance sheet as opposed to their business. And since we see tenants' business models, meaning their sales more often than we get to examine, especially the private companies, their balance sheet, that is something we will watch. If I were to get where this stress could occur, it would be for our local retailers who got a lot of help during COVID. So we did not see the failure rate then. The local segment, especially in our suburban portfolio adjacent to supermarket anchors, et cetera, those rents have grown nicely. So that's a segment we'll watch. So far, as John said, we haven't seen any slowdown, but common sense tells us that they may be more interest rate sensitive in terms of their business, so that's something we'll watch. And then in general, as John said, it feels like next year may be more boring than volatile on that side, but we'll see.

Paulina Rojas Schmidt

Analyst · Green Street. Your line is open.

Thank you. And then the second question regarding new openings in the portfolio. Are you seeing trends from a category perspective?

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · Green Street. Your line is open.

So, AJ, why don't you take that in terms of what trends are we seeing in terms of new tenants on where demand is coming from?

AJ Levine

Analyst · Green Street. Your line is open.

Yeah. Look, obviously, the earlier days of COVID, the recovery was first led by the essential retailers, but then quickly behind that, we saw this huge influx of luxury into most of our high-growth markets. And then, of course, the aspirational and what we call our advanced cotemporary brand, sort of clustering around them. And I think for most of our high-growth streets, that's what we continue to see. We're seeing continued entry of luxury tenants. We're continuing to see continuation of the clustering of those tenants that want to be near luxury. On the suburban side, a lot of the new store openings or the growth that we're seeing is being led by our discounters, right? So the TJ is the raw Burlington's of the world. They have been leading the way in terms of net new store growth as well as, of course, the dollar stores and those sorts of high-volume openers.

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · Green Street. Your line is open.

And let me just remind everyone, especially generalists who haven't thought about this. Some of the trends, some of the reason you're seeing this pent-up demand. A few years ago, there was this notion that online sales were going to be the best channel for growth. And now we understand in an omnichannel world, the stores are there most profitable. You're still seeing that pivot, whether it's luxury, whether it's advanced contemporary, or whether it's discount. Then secondly, you are seeing retailers recognizing that now is still a good time to sign leases even with all of this uncertainty. So it wouldn't surprise me that we'll continue to see an economic slowdown, economic uncertainty, consumer spending will be choppy, some tenant results will be choppy, and I still think you're going to see good leasing results.

Paulina Rojas Schmidt

Analyst · Green Street. Your line is open.

Thank you.

Ken Bernstein

Analyst · Green Street. Your line is open.

Sure.

Operator

Operator

And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Ken for any closing remarks.

Ken Bernstein

Analyst

Great. Thank you all for your time. We look forward to speaking with you next quarter. Happy Halloween.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.