Earnings Labs

Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN)

Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 29, 2020

$177.90

+0.34%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Align Technology First Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Shirley Stacy, VP of Corporate and Investor Communications. Thank you. You may begin.

Shirley Stacy

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

Thank you. Good afternoon everyone. Thank you for joining us. Joining me today is Joe Hogan, President and CEO; and John Morici, CFO. We issued first quarter 2020 financial results today via GlobeNewswire, which is available on our website at investor.aligntech.com. Today's conference call is being audio webcast and will be archived on our website for approximately one month. Telephone replay will be available today by approximately 5:30 P.M. Eastern Time through 5:30 P.M. Eastern Time on May 13th. To access the telephone replay, domestic callers should dial 877-660-6853 with conference number 13701221 followed by pound. International callers should dial 201-612-7415 with the same conference number. As a reminder, the information that the presenters discuss today will include forward-looking statements, including statements about Align's future events and product outlook. These forward-looking statements are only predictions and involve risks and uncertainties that are set forth in more detail in our most recent periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission available on our website and at sec.gov. Actual results vary significantly, and Align expressly assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement. We have posted historical financial statements, including the corresponding reconciliations, if applicable, and our first quarter 2020 conference and earnings release and conference call slides on our website under Quarterly Results. Please refer to these files for more detailed information. With that, I'll turn the call over to Align Technology's President and CEO, Joe Hogan. Joe?

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

Thanks Shirley. Good afternoon and thanks for joining us. I hope that you and your families are well. Given the significant disruption to our business caused by the extraordinary measures taken by governments, public and private institutions, and businesses around the world to fight the spread of COVID-19, most of the performance metrics I would normally discuss are less meaningful. Therefore, on our call today, in addition to the highlights from our Q1 results, I'll discuss the trends that we're seeing through early March prior to the escalation in the COVID-19 cases that resulted in shutdowns across Europe and North America, and compounded the initial impact from similar shutdowns in China beginning in January. I'll also talk about our view of recovery and strategy to help our doctor-customers navigate this challenging environment and ensure our business continuity. John will provide more detail on our financial performance and comment on the current trends across our business globally, including the momentum we're beginning to see in China. Following that, I'll come back and summarize a few key points and open up the call to questions. With that, let me start with a few comments on our first quarter results through early March. At that time, China was progressing in line with our original guidance for Q1, which include approximately 20,000 to 25,000 fewer cases and $30 million to $35 million less revenues for Invisalign and iTero products, and other regions were performing ahead of our Q1 outlook. However, the situation quickly changed in mid-March as most governments in EMEA and North America closed down non-essential businesses initiated stay-at-home orders. As a result, the vast majority of Invisalign practices shut down and stopped seeing patients, and our business fell off sharply. We believe the incremental impact of COVID-19 on our Q1 results was…

John Morici

Analyst · Brandon Couillard with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Joe. Now for our Q1 financial results. Total revenue for the first quarter was $551 million, down 15.2% from the prior quarter and up 0.4% from the corresponding quarter a year ago. For clear aligners, Q1 revenues of $481.6 million, was down 11.4% sequentially across all regions driven by Asia Pacific. Year-over-year clear aligner revenues growth of 2.6% reflects growth from EMEA and the Americas, offset by APAC. Clear aligner revenue growth was unfavorably impacted by approximately $6 million or approximately 1 point year-over-year from foreign exchange. Q1 Invisalign ASPs were up sequentially by approximately $15 to $1,255, primarily due to lower net deferrals due to a decrease in primary case shipments across all regions. On a year-over-year basis, Q1 Invisalign ASPs increased approximately $10, primarily reflecting price increases in all regions and increased additional aligner revenues, partially offset by promotional discounts and unfavorable foreign exchange. Total Q1 Invisalign shipments of 359,400 cases were down 13.1% sequentially and up 2.9% year-over-year. Our scanner and services revenue for the first quarter was $69.4 million, down 34.7% sequentially due to volume decreases in all regions. Year-over-year revenues were down 13.1%, primarily due to volume decreases in North America, partially offset by increases in EMEA and LatAm, and increases in service revenue off an increased installed base. Moving on to gross margin, first quarter overall gross margin was 71.6%, down one point sequentially and down 1.6 points year-over-year. On a non-GAAP basis, excluding stock-based compensation expense, overall gross margin was 71.8% for the first quarter, down one point sequentially and down 1.6 points year-over-year. Clear aligner gross margin for the first quarter was 73%, down 1.1 points sequentially and down 1.9 points year-over-year, primarily due to lower volumes and higher cost per case, partially offset by an increase in Invisalign ASPs. Scanner…

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

Thanks John and thanks again for joining us today. Before I close, I want to take a minute to talk about some of Align's actions to support relief efforts in the communities in which we live and work. One of the things that makes Align a great place to work is the concern our employees have for the world around us and their commitment to helping others. The passion is core to our purpose of transforming smiles and changing lives. And in this time of need, how we support our employees and customers and serve our communities is more important than ever. Early on in the outbreak, we donated RMB1 million to the Chinese Red Cross to support relief efforts and what were then some of the hardest hit areas. More recently, we committed $1 million to the Align Foundation, Align's donor advised fund through Fidelity Charitable. And our teams have been working together to source and supply additional personal protection equipment, or PPE, and medical supply donations for frontline health care workers in the communities we serve. Here's some slides to give you more details on this. Finally, thanks to the ingenuity and diligence of our manufacturing engineering team, we're able to leverage our 3D printing technology and manufacturing expertise to produce face shields and medical swabs for COVID-19 testing kits. Through our network of connections with hospitals across the globe, we are donating them to hospitals with the most critical needs. As our existing 3D printing equipment is highly customized for aligner fabrication and can't be reconfigured, we acquired some new separate 3D printers to specifically help with relief efforts. I'm extremely proud of what our employees are doing individually to make a difference in what Align is doing as a business overall. In summary, we're all operating…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Nathan Rich with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Nathan Rich

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

Good afternoon. Thanks for the question and hope you and Align team are all doing well. Appreciate all the color you gave on the call. I guess, Joe, maybe starting with China, serving potentially as a guide for how the U.S. and EMEA might recover. Was there anything that you would call out in terms of either the types of cases or the channels that started to come back first, I guess, in China? And as we think about, if China does serve as a guide for the U.S., does that sort of mean that we're looking at sort of like 3 to 4 months for kind of those case receipts to get back to that 80% level that you referenced in your remark.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

You know first of all you know China is China, right. China has a very rigid lockdown procedures they were into this first; I don’t think you can really take up that from China in this vector work at United States from a Western geography in general. We also see as John indicated in his written script, is that this is coming up in China by city. And we see Beijing and Wuhan area and all Hubei Province being behind in that sense. So I think as you look at the United States, too, New York and California will come up differently than the middle part of the nation is what we're seeing right now, too. So you talked about some segmentation in the sense of how it's come back in China, too, remember, it's primarily a comprehensive product base that we have in China. And it's pretty much stay. I mean we're selling some moderate there and some different things. But it's primarily coming back as a comprehensive piece. So again, I don't think that's a vector that we'll use when you look at other areas, too. So I mean there's no question, Nathan, the other countries will come back. I'm just very reluctant to take a vector from China and really relate that to the Western economies in different countries because it's all being handled differently around the world.

Nathan Rich

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Joe, I appreciate that. I guess just a quick follow-up. I mean when you think about these practices kind of opening back up, and you made some comments about how you're supporting customers, are there any changes that you're thinking about from like a marketing or levers that you've kind of used in the past, maybe gearing those up as you think about helping volumes start to kind of get back to more normalized levels?

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

And we honestly feel that, particularly in the orthodontic community, there'll be a much harder leaning toward a digital kind of environment because with the chance of re-infection rates with COVID-19 and concerns about future shutdowns or slowdowns, as we mentioned in our scripts, you just have a lot of variability and flexibility that you can use in a digital format that you can't use in an analog format. So we'll be going to our customers with programs that really help them through to figure out, how to convert more and more of their volume to a digital environment. Not that, we haven't done that before, but we'll be very specific about it. And as we move into teen season, teen season in second quarter, you'll see us really focused on teens because we know Orthos will be focused on teens, too. And that's a different demographic. It segments differently in a sense of our product lines like first and math. And we'll also be ready with PPE equipment and other things. They'll prepare doctors for the concerns that they're going to have of protecting their patients and also their employees, too. Did I miss anything, John, or anything you'd add?

Shirley Stacy

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Nathan. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Couillard with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Brandon Couillard

Analyst · Brandon Couillard with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Hi. Thanks. Good afternoon.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Brandon Couillard with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Hey, Brandon.

Brandon Couillard

Analyst · Brandon Couillard with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Joe and John, can you sort of just talk about the flexibility you have in your cost structure, how much of OpEx is discretionary or variable? It sounds like you're focused on kind of holding Align in terms of headcount and marketing. But how should we think about the leverage you have to kind of control costs during this period right now?

John Morici

Analyst · Brandon Couillard with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Hey, Brandon, this is John. Yes, as we said, there are levers that we could pull. Just as we accelerate growth, there's levers we pull. And when we look at our existing OpEx, as we look to spend some of our marketing dollars, where we spend it, how we spend it, there's levers around that spend. As with the travel restrictions and less conferences and so on there's a lot of other operating expenditures that can be pushed out and not spent currently. So we're focused in on and still investing for the future to be able to work with our doctors, as Joe has mentioned, on a lot of new technologies and making sure that we keep the employees and the focus that we have on our structure that we have, but we'll modulate as we needed -- as we need to going forward, if it's needed.

Brandon Couillard

Analyst · Brandon Couillard with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Thanks. And then a follow-up for Joe. As you think about sort of the leverage you have to drive demand, would you expect to be somewhat more aggressive in terms of ASPs? And are you planning to adjust your Advantage program levels or hurdles to give that as a bit of a break given they've had their offices closed? Thanks.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Brandon Couillard with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Brandon, we've already extended up from an Advantage tier standpoint with our customers, when they went into that. So, I don't know, how much of an effect that will have on an ASP standpoint, because we basically be holding them to where they are. But overall, it's not price. It's our strategy here as we come up out of here. It's how do we support our customers in a digital environment. We're trying to explain how do we -- how do we really support them from a PPE standpoint and an export standpoint. We talked about loans, different things from a cash flow standpoint. We know many of them are going to be challenged in that way. And we have been offering some payables relief and deferral going forward. So it's a broad aspect of needs, we think, our customers will have. Advantage is one part of that, but it's what we can bring to these customers holistically to help their practice and help them grow.

Brandon Couillard

Analyst · Brandon Couillard with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Thanks.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Brandon Couillard with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jon Block with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Jon Block

Analyst · Jon Block with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Great, thanks guys.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Jon Block with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Hey Joe.

Jon Block

Analyst · Jon Block with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Joe, you mentioned protecting employees, no furloughs or salary cuts. I'm just curious about the competition. And has anything changed in the marketplace around the competitive landscape? We've heard some chatter about sort of, call it, cut back in the orthodontic divisions -- of some of the other players, but maybe you can elaborate on what you're hearing or seeing out there.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Jon Block with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Hey Jon, I won't be specific, but I mean, most of our competitors have had layoffs or cutbacks in some way. We've been just been blessed with a really strong balance sheet going in. This allows us to have the flexibility and do it as we do. We're a growth business. You know that Jon well. We're set up for 20% to 30% kind of growth, and we have to position ourselves for that. In that sense, making sure that our production capacity is ready, that our employee base is ready, too. Our sales teams are really critical in that sense, too and it's wonderful. We can see some of the investments like Invisalign Virtual Assistance and things that we're working with customers right now, that we can launch those products and continue to drive those products going forward with a full force engineering team also. So, from a competitive standpoint, I mean, we're seeing varying degrees of cutbacks and moves in that sense. But we're not focused on that, Jon, really. We're just focused on what we think we should do, what's important in our portfolio, and how we can help our doctors out.

Jon Block

Analyst · Jon Block with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Helpful. The second one is a little bit long. But just some Swift. I know you kicked off a pilot recently. I think it's an important sort of initiative long-term to better get after the lower acuity market. I'm just curious, Joe, you kicked it off when there was a lot going on, so did you get enough of a signal during that time to share some takeaways from the Swift initiative? And then could we see you lean on that a little bit more in coming months? Because it is a little bit more price-sensitive for the consumer. It has a monthly. And in this environment of job uncertainty might really resonate. So curious your thoughts there. Thanks guys.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Jon Block with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Yes, Jon, when we launched Swift, timing couldn't be worse in that sense because COVID hit pretty far after that, but we got a pretty strong signal in that, that we think we understand at least part of the demand equation. We're going to look at rolling that out in a broader sense going forward in the United States and maybe in different parts of the world. But I think when you talked about the price point on ASP and different things, and obviously, we broach that with the doctors who are part of the Swift program. But Jon, you know this; I want to make sure our colleagues understand. This is -- our margins on this product line are accretive to our gross margin area and how we're going into it. So, it's really important in how we position that going forward. But again, those 300 million patients out there, we know there's some price sensitivity and then there's some clinical aspects from a simplicity standpoint that we're going out with that product line. And we think it will respond real well in a broader sense as we begin to roll that out.

Jon Block

Analyst · Jon Block with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Perfect. Thanks guys.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Jon Block with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Thanks Jon.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Beuchaw with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Steve Beuchaw with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question

Hi Steve.

Steve Beuchaw

Analyst · Steve Beuchaw with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question

Hey there. Thanks for the time here. I also wanted to ask in a way about Swift, but with a very different angle. As we think about the operating environment prospectively for some amount of time, people are going to be concerned about safety. And so I wonder to what extent, and you definitely alluded to this in your prepared remarks, can you flex some of the technology that you have with Swift and some of the things you have in development to decrease the amount of face-to-face contact? Again, I know you alluded to this, but I wonder if you could take it a few steps further, give us more context, a little bit more insight into your plans. How do you think about making Invisalign treatment achievable with a minimum of in-person interaction for those who might be concerned about that even in an environment where PPE is more widely used?

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Steve Beuchaw with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question

Steve, that's top of mind as we do things today, too. So actually, even before COVID, when we designed Swift, Swift was designed for basically 2 to 3-doctor direct contact and that's it. And that was part of making the equation for doctors a profitable equation, too. Then you roll in our remote monitoring capability we just rolled out, which gives doctors a tool to be able to do that, and we'll be able to enhance that tool going forward. There's limited amount of attachments in IPR on things like Swift, too. And it's not that our clinical protocols are going to, in some way, decrease in the sense of what the clinical capability are and what we can do. We're also cognizant in the sense of time and mouth. And we'll adjust that. We might tie those things differently to help doctors, too. But there's a lot of different things that we're contemplating. We talked about at the conference last year about direct printed attachments and those kinds of things that in the future and not-too-distant future, will allow a lot less contact and a lot of speed from a productivity standpoint with doctors and patients be able to do those things. So it's the right line of questioning, Steve. So remote monitoring, a digital platform that allows us to anticipate exactly when you'll be seeing a patient and what will need to be done in that sense, not duplicating treatments at the office that don't need to be done and keeping up with patients in a sense remotely and only calling them in when something goes away or a doctor has a concern in some way. So we feel our digital platform and things we have in the pipeline, Steve, we're really well positioned to address that.

Steve Beuchaw

Analyst · Steve Beuchaw with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Good. Good to hear. The second question I wanted to ask actually relates to the practice in the U.S. So it's been -- well, for some of us months, but for -- in practices, certainly many weeks. How do you think about the most likely, as you talk to the orthodontic and dental societies, the most likely path forward for practice reopening in the U.S.? And I know it's a complicated question because there will be a lot of regional variation in staging, but to what extent -- to any extent you can, can you give us your sense for how you guys are thinking about that and your planning specific to the U.S.?

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Steve Beuchaw with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question

Yes, Steve, I think it's going to be -- it's certainly not going to be uniform in the sense of how we go about that, whether it's in the states or anywhere around the world, there are going to be certain government restrictions. I think there's going to be certain -- when I say restrictions, too, it's going to be equipment that's available from a PPE standpoint, what patients are going to be prepared to do? We see some -- if you look at treatment planning alternatives or when patients enter an office right now, they're not even coming into the office. At the time, they stay in their car until they're summoned in some way to make sure that there's less interaction and proper social distancing within the office itself. So I can't really tell you yet. The only thing is I think there's going to be a lot more caution about, obviously, transmission of the disease. That's going to include how you stage patients, how often you see these patients. And I think from a dental versus orthodontic standpoint, they are obviously going to be different protocols because of the different procedures that take place there. Steve, there's an interesting article in the New York Times yesterday that really did an X/Y kind of a graph on different types of professions that interface with customers and which ones are most time from an intimacy standpoint and could transmit a virus. And dentistry came up almost on the top of that whole thing. So I mean that's going to be watched closely, and I think we have to make sure we work with our customers -- I mean doctors and to help them through this, too.

Steve Beuchaw

Analyst · Steve Beuchaw with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question

Thanks for all the -- for the perspective there.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Steve Beuchaw with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question

Yes. Thanks, Steve.

Shirley Stacy

Analyst · Steve Beuchaw with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question

Thank you, Steve.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Elizabeth Anderson

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the question.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

Hi, Elizabeth.

Elizabeth Anderson

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

Hope everyone is doing okay. I want to ask a question on the sort of digital access of what you guys can do in the near-term. I know you said that, you were sort of unveiling the app as sort of like a beta test, and you were rapidly rolling that forward and allowing more access and training and things to that. Can you speak to any more of the details in terms of sort of like the uptake or how the training is going or the case use of that for like ongoing patients?

Shirley Stacy

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

Elizabeth, just to make clear, you're talking about Virtual -- appointment of Virtual Care, right?

Elizabeth Anderson

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

Yes. Yes.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

Elizabeth, you're talking about just training of doctors online rather than face-to-face?

Elizabeth Anderson

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

Oh, no. Sorry. I meant on the Virtual Care side.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

Okay. And so your question is on the workflow of that. Is that --

Elizabeth Anderson

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

Yes. As you said -- you said they were going slow and sort of like how have you seen uptake of that so far? Is it -- I assume that there's some sort of training that has happened beforehand or how have you been able to roll that out considering that -- data testing right before you this all happen.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

I get it, Elizabeth. Look, first of all, we've been -- we didn't just roll -- we just rolled this out. We've been working on it for over a year. And so we actually rush this to the market. And as we rush into the market, we were cautious in a sense of how many doctors we -- you had in the program. And we started here in the United States, and now we're gradually moving it to broader to more doctors in the U.S. and across the world, too. We had to train the doctors to do this, but the great thing it is on our IDS platform. And it has a great user interface that the team put together. So from the feedback that, I've gotten from the teams and the doctors, too, that user interface has been pretty simple in how they've been able to put that piece together. And remember, the whole idea there is just that how do you stay -- and these kind of lockdown periods or future workflows where patients don't want to come into the office all the time to see a doctor, how in the world can you track treatment and how can you communicate? And it's gone really well. And we will have actually more doctors who want it that we can give it to right now. We just want to make sure we don't burden them, and we just roll it out piece-by-piece to make sure that it's robust enough to handle more and more doctors over time.

Elizabeth Anderson

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Perfect. And so just on -- you did a virtual visit with some of that in the first quarter -- over next set of patients?

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

Yes. More than 2,000 doctors, we have more than 2,000 doctors trained right now -- trained and beginning to use Virtual Care. And obviously, we have tens of thousands of doctors out there that we'll want to roll this out, too, and we think they'll have an interest in it.

Elizabeth Anderson

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Perfect. That's helpful. Thank you.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question

And we've had over -- just I'm getting some other data here, too. We have over 3,500 appointments right now that have been done through Virtual Care. Elizabeth, if we think about this, too, it just makes sense, right? I mean in everybody's kind of -- in today's COVID environment, it obviously makes sense to try to eliminate patients trying to have this person-to-person contact. But I mean going forward, too, in a digital kind of environment, having these kind of tools just make sense from a productivity standpoint for both doctors and patients, too. So we'll continue to invest pretty heavily in this to get better and better at it. This is our initial launch, but you'll see more and more iterations to help to enhance this

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Johnson with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Jeff Johnson with Baird. Please proceed with your question

Hi Jeff.

Jeff Johnson

Analyst · Jeff Johnson with Baird. Please proceed with your question

Thank you, guys. Hey Joe, how are you? Good afternoon. Just two questions, I guess. One, we've seen some news in the last couple of days from one of your DTC competitors on some patents they were able to get and some better business bureau recommendations on some advertising. I would love your view not so much on what that means for them, but does that have any implications for you either on the Swift product where some of that is kind of a monthly fee? I don't think any of that would trip any of the stuff in their new patent, but also if they have to rein in a little bit of their advertising. I would assume that's a good thing for you, but would just like to get your view.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Jeff Johnson with Baird. Please proceed with your question

Jeff, overall, that's not a model that competes with us. We go directly to doctors in everything we do, work through a doctor base. And so from what we know of the -- I haven't looked at the patent or whatever. I just read most of the information that's out there. That has to do with Invisalign. And we have to do with just scanning a patient in a store and transferring a file that the -- never really reaches a doctor in any way except from a teledentistry standpoint. So, we don't see it being an issue for us at all.

Jeff Johnson

Analyst · Jeff Johnson with Baird. Please proceed with your question

Sorry, I was on mute. Thank you. And then just my follow-up question. Obviously, we're all going to be watching PPE. We're all going to be watching patients' willingness to go into these offices. What are you hearing from the doctor side? From an orthodontist standpoint, the office is maybe a little cleaner, less aerosolization, if that's even a word, of fluids and what have you. So, are your orthodontists, especially kind of chomping at the bit to get back? I'm sure they are financially. But do they feel safe? Do they feel like this will be an environment they can bring their staff back into it can bring patients into things like that? Thanks.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Jeff Johnson with Baird. Please proceed with your question

From an orthodontist standpoint, Jeff, you're right to segment those two because, obviously, dentistry is a lot different than orthodontist and whatever. The orthodontists that we look to, I would say that they're not concerned, but they're cautious in the sense of what they have to do, the precautions they have to make with the patients and also with their employees internally. They are anxious to get back. But I mean there's a good degree of caution to make sure that they come back in the right way, in a thoughtful way, too. And again, I think this could vary by state also in the sense of how it's applied and what kind of regulations are put in place. But I know there's -- they're really interested to come back. And the ones that really went into this was a significant amount of Invisalign feel good that they've been able to stay in contact with their patients and be able to send passive aligners with different things that's helped in any kind of course correction or holding patients to where they are. So, on the dentistry side, I mean, that's obviously going to be different. But when you think about it, an Invisalign is one of the least invasive procedures that you're going to see in dentistry. And we'll certainly be emphasizing that and trying to work with doctors to help them through. And we talked about iGo and the growth of iGo, and that's a great -- when you think about you think when we talk about a digital platform, that's a terrific product for GPs in the sense of being able to leverage that and then send a more difficult cases of the orthodontist side. We'll be working with GPs to really help through that transition.

Jeff Johnson

Analyst · Jeff Johnson with Baird. Please proceed with your question

Understood. Thank you.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Jeff Johnson with Baird. Please proceed with your question

All right, Jeff. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

John Kreger

Analyst · John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question

Hi thanks very much. Joe, could you remind us what's the lag time between order receipt from a customer -- from when -- to the point where you can actually ship the aligners?

Joe Hogan

Analyst · John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question

So we call it CCA, and CCA would be in order. And I'd say, John can correct me on this; I'd say it's four days to five days.

John Morici

Analyst · John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question

But from an order to an after shipment, it could be three to four weeks because it's the back and forth. He's describing kind of initial to the actual shipment. It could be three to four weeks depending on how much back and forth. As you know, John, getting that treatment plan just exactly the way the doctor has and wants it takes a number of iterations. And then the actual manufacture and shipment can do. So on the outset, it could be 4 weeks in total.

John Kreger

Analyst · John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Great. So from a fabrication standpoint, for a region like the U.S. that got locked down in mid-March that backlog probably would have -- would be reasonable to assume that kind of carried through to mid-April.

John Morici

Analyst · John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question

Well, there's still going to be back and forth that goes on. So I mean you have patients that have not been able to make it into the office to look at the final plan for doctors to meet other things that go on. So it's going to vary by this until the doctor actually approve the treatment plan and then it gets manufactured. So remember, our business is a made-to-order business. I mean there's no inventory. And as things change in the environment, when there -- people can't come to the office to seek treatment or to make sure that they're going to prove that treatment plan, things shut down right away. And it takes some time to see that ramp back up.

John Kreger

Analyst · John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question

Great. That's helpful. And then anything you can give us in terms of contribution from exocad since that'll be in there for the full second quarter?

John Morici

Analyst · John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question

Yes. Nothing on that John that we're giving on any forward guidance other than what we've had in our prepared remarks.

Shirley Stacy

Analyst · John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question

Thanks John, next question please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kevin Caliendo with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Kevin Caliendo

Analyst · Kevin Caliendo with UBS. Please proceed with your question

Thank you. First question, you're talking about a digital and analog world. But if I think about Align a year from now, and hopefully, we're through this, competitively, not just with other manufacturers, but against wires and brackets. I mean, is there a marketing pitch here that the orthodontist can go and say, hey, instead of using wires and brackets or you can even pitch to the orthodontist, that there might be a greater demand to use clear aligners versus wires and brackets simply because you're able to keep patients out of the -- keep them out of the orthodontist office or the dentist office more frequently? Is that something that you've contemplated that could necessarily be a positive for market share for you?

Joe Hogan

Analyst · Kevin Caliendo with UBS. Please proceed with your question

Kevin, prior to the COVID-19, we have a program called ADAPT where doctors -- orthodontists come to us and say, look, you want to go primarily 80%, 90% Invisalign. How do we do that, right? And so how do you do that, you're going to crank up your volume in a significant way. And to do that, you just needed to drive more productivity. And so we were pushing that piece is you don't have to see patients as often, right? You might have patients come back every 3 or 4 weeks to adjust wires and brackets. Likely, they're going to come back doing their episode with a wire that comes out, and it's an emergency procedure, about 20% of an orthos time that doesn't have wires and brackets or emergency cases. We talk to doctors about how you can really control your schedule much better in a digital environment and how patients don't have to come back so often. We talk about 7 weeks, 8 weeks seeing patients. Now that becomes even more magnified when you think about profitability of infection and concern about COVID-19. It's not just a productivity play. It's a way of being able to treat patients in a way that's safer for your staff and safer for those patients, too. So we'll certainly be emphasizing that. And -- but it goes -- it just goes along with a digital platform. It is -- it's much more productive. And doctors will need less time per patient. And I mean, we know that well from the millions of patients that we've done.

Kevin Caliendo

Analyst · Kevin Caliendo with UBS. Please proceed with your question

One quick follow-up. The DSO spiked. I know you made some comments earlier about offering payment terms and loans and the like. Does that explain the bump-up the nine day you said expect DSOs to continue to move higher? So what was the impact of, I guess, would be improved payment terms for the doctors on your DSOs?

John Morici

Analyst · Kevin Caliendo with UBS. Please proceed with your question

Yes. It varies by doctors and so on. But as they have working capital concerns, we're in a fortunate position to be able to help out. So we work with them to kind of manage their cash flow in terms of paying us. And then the DSO impact is obviously impacted by lower revenue as well, which causes that to increase. So -- but we're working closely with our customers, and making sure that they can help weather the storm, stay close with them. And as they start to ramp up, we want to be their partners with them, and cash is an important part of that.

Kevin Caliendo

Analyst · Kevin Caliendo with UBS. Please proceed with your question

Great. Thanks. Stay safe everybody.

John Morici

Analyst · Kevin Caliendo with UBS. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Kevin, you too.

Shirley Stacy

Analyst · Kevin Caliendo with UBS. Please proceed with your question

Operator, we'll take one more question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our final question comes from the line of Richard Newitter with SVB Leerink. Please proceed with your question.

Jaime Morgan

Analyst · SVB Leerink. Please proceed with your question

Hi, guys. This is Jaime on for Rich, this afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a housekeeping one. You guys had said in the beginning of your prepared remarks, incremental impact from COVID-19 was about 50 fewer cases and, I think, $85 million less revenue. So I just wanted to make sure that, that is something -- like the way that we should be thinking about that is incremental to what you had originally contemplated in your 1Q guidance of, I think, about 20,000 to 25,000 case impact in a $30 million to $35 million revenue impact?

John Morici

Analyst · SVB Leerink. Please proceed with your question

That's correct, Jaime. You would think of that as incremental to how we guided.

Jaime Morgan

Analyst · SVB Leerink. Please proceed with your question

Got it. So the fair way to think about that in total would be about $115 million to $120 million of impact to revenue from the coronavirus in the first quarter?

John Morici

Analyst · SVB Leerink. Please proceed with your question

That's correct.

Jaime Morgan

Analyst · SVB Leerink. Please proceed with your question

Got it. Okay. And just last one for me. Any sort of update on where you guys stand with launching the Palate Expander product?

Joe Hogan

Analyst · SVB Leerink. Please proceed with your question

Hi, Jaime. I'll take that. We're still -- we have the design. We're still working that piece. We have to find an effective way to manufacture it. So I don't have a date that I can give you, but I can tell you that it's high on our priority list.

Jaime Morgan

Analyst · SVB Leerink. Please proceed with your question

Thank you.

Joe Hogan

Analyst · SVB Leerink. Please proceed with your question

Thank you, Jamie.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Ms. Stacy Shirley for any closing remarks.

Shirley Stacy

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us. We look forward to speaking with you at upcoming virtual financial conferences in the future. If you have any questions, please contact Investor Relations, and hope you have a great day. Take care.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day.