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Alkermes plc (ALKS)

Q4 2008 Earnings Call· Fri, May 23, 2008

$33.76

-1.48%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Alkermes Conference Call to discuss the Company's Fiscal Year 2008 Financial Results. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a question-and-answer session to follow. Please be advised that this call is being taped at Alkermes' request. At this time, I would like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Rebecca Peterson, Vice President of Corporate Communications at Alkermes. Please go ahead.

Rebecca Peterson

Management

Thanks, Matt. Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alkermes conference call to discuss our financial results for fiscal year 2008, which ended on March 31st. With me this afternoon are David Broecker, CEO of Alkermes; Jim Frates, our CFO; and Richard Pops, our Chairman. Before we begin today, let me remind you that during the call, we will make forward-looking statements relating to among other things our expectations concerning the commercialization of RISPERDAL CONSTA and VIVITROL, our future financial expectations and business performance, and our expectations concerning the therapeutic value and development of our product candidates. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the results contemplated by these forward-looking statements. You can find a list and a detailed description of these and other risks in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, which will be filed shortly, as well as other periodic reports filed with the SEC under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 as amended. We undertake no obligation to update or revise the information provided in this call. This afternoon, Jim Frates will discuss our fiscal 2008 financial results, and David Broecker will provide an update on the company. We'll then open up the call for Q&A. But before I turn over the call to Jim, I'd like to tell you about an exciting new development. We are very pleased to disclose that Alkermes has signed an agreement with J&J for the development and commercialization of a four-week formulation of RISPERDAL CONSTA. The two-week formulation is now a growing, blockbuster product, and we are excited to announce that we are pursuing this new formulation, which could offer patients and physicians another dosing option. David will provide additional details about the program and our pipeline shortly. Now, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

Jim Frates

Management

Thanks, Rebecca. Good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal 2008 was a very successful year financially. On a GAAP basis, we achieved record net income of $167 million or basic earnings per share of $1.66 and diluted earnings per share of $1.62. Our earnings were driven by manufacturing and royalty revenues from RISPERDAL CONSTA and significant incoming cash from the sale of the company's stake in Reliant Pharmaceuticals. On a pro forma basis, we reported net income of $31.8 million or $0.32 per basic share and $0.31 per diluted share. Our financial performance for fiscal 2008 was at the high end of our financial expectations we provided in May 2007. For a reconciliation of our pro forma net income to GAAP, please see the press release we issued earlier today. Behind the numbers, I view our performance as an indication of the strength and resiliency of our business model. Despite Eli Lilly's termination of the AIR Insulin program, we delivered positive cash flows from operations of over $40 million last year. We enter fiscal 2009 with a number of unique strengths, a solid foundation with over $460 million in cash and investments, a strong and growing economic engine in RISPERDAL CONSTA and multiple drivers for near-term growth. We have an opportunity with VIVITROL to build a meaningful franchise in the treatment of addiction. We are managing our investment through our partnership with Cephalon. We have a major late-stage opportunity in exenatide once-weekly, a product with important clinical benefits that is approaching NDA submission. We have an emerging pipeline of proprietary products to provide long-term growth. And we are investing in a share repurchase program to further leverage our earnings potential. Today's press release details our fiscal 2008 results and is quite comprehensive, so our focus on the most important elements of our business.…

David Broecker

Management

Thanks Jim and good afternoon everyone. Jim described how we ended the fiscal year in a very strong financial position. Most of you are well aware of the products and candidates underlying this strength. RISPERDAL CONSTA is a blockbuster product that continues to grow, and at the same time we feel that the competitive threats around it are diminishing significantly. We continue to develop the market for VIVITROL, while managing the business for breakeven. Behind our commercial products, Exenatide once-weekly is increasingly recognized as one of the best new diabetes products in development, and the progress in the commercial facility is on track. The bottom line is that we continue to manage this base business towards the $2 to $3 earnings per share objective in 2013. As we enter this new fiscal year, one of the commitments we are making to you is to provide more visibility into our pipeline. While our recent communication are focused on our commercial and late stage products, our development teams have been working steadily over the past few years to build a very exciting pipeline, which has now reached a stage where multiple products are entering clinical trials. These products will be important value drivers for us going forward. The rationale for these programs leverages our experience in developing products in psychiatry, addiction and respiratory and also builds on our existing proprietary platforms as we push the technology to new levels. And we have the expertise to scale up and commercially manufacture these types of products. We expect to disclose three new development programs from our pipeline during the remainder of calendar year 2008. Today, as Rebecca mentioned in her introductions, we're disclosing the first of these candidates. We are discussing for the first time our agreement with J&J for the development and commercialization…

Rebecca Peterson

Management

Thank you, David. And operator, with that we will now open it up for Q&A.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Cory Kasimov of JPMorgan. Your question please?

Cory Kasimov

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I want to start with this new disclosure about the once-monthly CONSTA, and maybe give a little bit more visibility into that. With this going into the clinic next year, given the extensive experience supporting the twice-a-month version, what type of clinical data do you at this time anticipate is going to be necessary to gain approval of this product?

David Broecker

Management

Cory, this is David, great question. Obviously, we are very excited about taking on this project as well. And as we mentioned, the plan is to do a Phase I essentially PK study first quarter of next year, and then based on that and looking at their profile, it will inform us about what the rest of the development program will look like for this product. So we are going to have to kind of wait for those results before we know exactly what the timeline to clinical strategy is going to be going forward

Cory Kasimov

Analyst

Okay. And I'm not sure, but this is follow-up if you can disclose any of this information, but curious to know when this agreement may have been reached and then from there if you can speculate, you care to read into what this may or may not say about J&J's expectations for palmitate?

David Broecker

Management

I don't want to comment on the perspectives or expectations around paliperidone palmitate. Again I would refer you to J&J for further details on that. But suffice it to say, this is a new agreement that we entered into just very, very recently. And so we're looking forward to doing all the work together in the clinic first quarter next year.

Cory Kasimov

Analyst

Are there milestones attached with this agreement, milestone payments, okay?

Rebecca Peterson

Management

We've guide you to right now. And Cory I'll just add to that, that clearly we are very encouraged to have lead formulations identified and are very excited about the prospects for this program.

Cory Kasimov

Analyst

Okay, sounds great. And with regards to ongoing progress to validate the third bulk line for the existing formulation of CONSTA, can you comment on that?

David Broecker

Management

Well, we still that's based on the capacity requirements and outstanding jobs that our Ohio Group is doing in terms of improving yields. We haven't had to pull the trigger yet on validating that line. It's basically in place ready to go whenever we need it.

Cory Kasimov

Analyst

Okay.

David Broecker

Management

So the expectations that Jim outlined in the supply requirements for next year, we envision coming out of the two existing bulk lines.

Cory Kasimov

Analyst

Okay. And then lastly just to get a better sense of the impact of AIR Insulin on that discontinuation. Can you discuss at all or just mention the impact if any that this has on the 2013 EPS goal?

David Broecker

Management

Yes. I mean it really doesn't impact it at all. Obviously, we were disappointed that Lily made the decision to terminate the program. But I think as you know, we made the decisions we needed to make to do the restructuring back here. And we are now ready to go forward and invest in this proprietary pipeline that we're excited to talk about, and over the course of the year.

Cory Kasimov

Analyst

So generally speaking, the P&L did not have that much sensitivity to the AIR Insulin?

David Broecker

Management

Exactly.

Cory Kasimov

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks for taking the questions.

Rebecca Peterson

Management

Thanks a lot, Cory.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jamie Rubin of Morgan Stanley. Your question, please?

Jamie Rubin

Analyst

Thank you. I just wanted either you, Jim or David, to further elaborate on the self-forced dislocation on VIVITROL which caused the sequential decline in the fourth quarter. And where you are in terms of numbers and what you'll expect that will look like for your first quarter 2009? And secondly, so the difference in the R&D revenue guidance for 2009 was the absence of Lilly AIR Insulin. Did I hear that correctly?

Jim Frates

Management

Yes, we had over $50 million of revenue from Lilly last year, Jamie. And obviously, we were in the throes of late-stage Phase III development. So, that was a major loss. At the same time, though, we are losing some revenue from Amylin as we go forward, because we are winding up our work with them to turn over the facility, which is we talked about we're targeting the end of calendar year 2008 for that. So, that's the R&D revenue from Amylin is also coming down a little.

Jamie Rubin

Analyst

So, that number, that $20 million to $25 million then, that's mostly R&D revenue related to exenatide LAR, and then…

Jim Frates

Management

Yes.

Jamie Rubin

Analyst

And then 2009, that should go away essentially?

Jim Frates

Management

Some of that will go away. I think there will still be some of it there, but now we just announced our four-week program with J&J. So, there is anticipated R&D revenue with Johnson & Johnson on the four-week concept that will be going forward. And we're going to announce new programs as we go through the year, as David discussed. So, we'll look forward to keeping both the partner R&D business, but also the loss from Lilly, the R&D revenue just earlier in March was significant for us.

David Broecker

Management

And, Jamie, I'll pick up a little bit on the sales for VIVITROL. And the first quarter obviously was the first full quarter with the new organization in place. And just to remind you, we basically reduced total resources by about 50, 60% crossable to organization. So, it really reflects the new team getting in place, getting their territories sort of aligned and meeting the doctors in them and then putting the plan in place going forward. So, we continue to be very optimistic about the product. We continue to hear about its impact in terms of patients-wise. And the focus of the efforts right now are trying to really develop the market and go after big opportunities. And that could mean that sales could be a little lumpy over the course of the year, because some of these opportunities do take time to sort of bear fruit.

Jamie Rubin

Analyst

And if I can just follow up and just with one more question. You just said that AIR Insulin does not impact your 2013 goal of $2 to $3, but then you also said that the loss of revenue was significant. So what are you making up that $2 to $3 with or what are you making up within your P&L to get to that $2 to $3 of that AIR Insulin?

Jim Frates

Management

Well, I think the major difference between where people stand looking out and where we believe we will be in four to five years is the growth of RISPERDAL CONSTA. And as I look out at all the analyst models that folks have, people have RISPERDAL CONSTA peeling off even as early as this year. So, RISPERDAL CONSTA is obviously a major part of that component and not requiring heroic growth from here. We have exenatide LAR or once-weekly exenatide in those numbers. And we believe in four to five years, VIVITROL can be quite a substantial contributor. So, those are the three main drivers that we have. Now, of course, we expect profitable results from pulmonary insulin out in those years as well, but even with the loss of that program and the significant loss of R&D revenue right now, but that product should have been on the market in that timeframe. And that would help us in that regard, but we still feel confident that we can hit those targets without pulmonary insulin.

Jamie Rubin

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Jim Frates

Management

You're welcome.

Rebecca Peterson

Management

Thanks, Jamie.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Dave Windley of Jefferies & Company, your question please?

Dave Windley

Analyst

Hi, thanks. Jim, on the R&D expense, if I did my calculation correctly, it looks like the under-funded R&D from '08 to '09 increases about $50 million. Is that fair?

Jim Frates

Management

Well, I think you are probably over estimating, because we are taking some cost out of R&D days with the loss of Lilly. So, you got to do in a couple of step process. Lilly is coming out and some of our proprietary R&D is going back in.

Dave Windley

Analyst

Okay. All right, I took R&D revenue minus R&D expense and took the difference between the two years for that calculation, got about $48 million.

Jim Frates

Management

That's in the Ballpark.

Dave Windley

Analyst

Okay. David, you talked about several programs that you expect to have in the clinic. Is it possible to kind of rank order what's going to consume the majority of that R&D expense?

Jim Frates

Management

Well, I think rank ordering, we haven't got into that kind of granularity, Dave, but we talked about the eight programs that we are going to have. We have to more to announce. And I think the other thing is, as you know, the Lilly revenue was covering a lot of overhead. It's now being borne solely by Alkermes.

Dave Windley

Analyst

Okay.

Jim Frates

Management

And that also gets factored into the mix. But I think when you look at the totality of the programs, that's where the R&D expense is coming from.

Dave Windley

Analyst

Okay. Maybe another way to ask, of those eight, how far along would the most advanced project be?

Jim Frates

Management

Dave, there is usually correlation between spend and stage of development.

Dave Windley

Analyst

Sure.

Jim Frates

Management

The late stage programs clearly are Exenatide once-weekly in Phase III, scaling up in Ohio. The initiation of the VIVITROL study for the opioid dependence, that's a Phase III program. And then from there you get into sort of the Phase II programs OX-27, OX-29.

Dave Windley

Analyst

Yeah, okay.

Jim Frates

Management

And then you get into the Phase I programs, OX-33, four-week transfer. And fair to say that probably that the two undisclosed programs will be Phase I programs as well.

Dave Windley

Analyst

Okay. Changing gears a little bit Jim on CONSTA manufacturing. I try to do a quick calculation on gross margin and it looks like if I use mid-points again on the guidance for next year, you are looking for gross margin to improve about five percentage point is that approximately accurate, and if so what's driving that?

Jim Frates

Management

Yeah, I think it's in that range Dave, and its volume.

Dave Windley

Analyst

Okay. So continue generating more volumes but still only using the two lines?

Jim Frates

Management

Right, exactly.

Dave Windley

Analyst

And on that third line are you – do you to have to take any cost on that or is it not essentially placed in service yet?

Jim Frates

Management

It's not placed in service. And I'll also remind everybody that it's actually on J&J's books because they paid for the line.

Dave Windley

Analyst

Right good point.

Jim Frates

Management

So we do not have the depreciation associated with that.

Dave Windley

Analyst

Good point. And then my last questions in on VIVITROL you are including some manufacturing revenue in your guidance, but no royalty revenue. Is it possible that it could work that way or you are just being conservative or could you reconcile this, do it for me?

Jim Frates

Management

Well our deal Cephalon, Dave runs through the net collaborative profit line.

Dave Windley

Analyst

Right.

Jim Frates

Management

So we won't royalty revenue from that. And there is a third sheet in our press release lays out the changes in numbers there. So, when the product breaks even, we ought to see that net collaborative profit line go up as we share 50% of the profit.

Dave Windley

Analyst

Okay, all right. Thank you.

Jim Frates

Management

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jim Reddoch of FBR, your question please.

Jim Reddoch

Analyst

Hi, thanks. David, when you said that you have seen competitive threats falling away, competitive threats to CONSTA falling away, what's the size of that [perhaps] long-acting were you referring to? Another question after that.

David Broecker

Management

Jim I'm sorry, you broke up a little bit there, just the diminished competitive threats around RISPERDAL CONSTA?

Jim Reddoch

Analyst

Yes, when you said the competitive threats were falling away, what besides that long-acting were you referring to?

David Broecker

Management

It was specifically about Zyprexa Adhera not getting the FDA approval. And again as I mentioned, I think it's still little too early to tell what the impact of paliperidone palmitate is going to be. We saw two posters but we saw 14 posters for RISPERDAL CONSTA, and obviously now with today's news about four week, we see RISPERDAL CONSTA being a growing brand for many years to come.

Jim Reddoch

Analyst

Is this once every four weeks also Medisorb technology?

David Broecker

Management

Yes. It leverages everything that we've done on the two week program.

Jim Reddoch

Analyst

Has there been any technological improvements with the beads that will allow you to [wear the spheres], that will allow you to have smaller gauge needle?

David Broecker

Management

Little early to really comment on that at this point. We've chosen some of the leaf formulations and we're just going to have to see how they perform before we give you some specifics around that.

Rebecca Peterson

Management

But Jim let me just add to that.

Jim Reddoch

Analyst

Okay.

Rebecca Peterson

Management

But keep in mind it would be a physician or nurse-administered product.

Jim Reddoch

Analyst

All right. And then what percent of oral RISPERDAL is bipolar right now and what's the expectation for the proportion of bipolar with CONSTA?

David Broecker

Management

Do you Rebecca? Off the top of the mind I’m not sure.

Rebecca Peterson

Management

So Jim I don’t have the break out in front of me, but clearly bipolar is a growing indication for the field, and as you see many of these products getting label indications for bipolar, sales are increasing for these products. So we are very excited about the opportunity for RISPERDAL CONSTA in the area of bipolar.

Jim Reddoch

Analyst

Right. And then lastly, J&J is not covering the development expenses for the once monthly?

Rebecca Peterson

Management

No, in fact they are.

Jim Reddoch

Analyst

Oh they are. Okay. So that is not contributing to higher R&D [issue] right?

David Broecker

Management

There is a little bit of that in that 20 to 25 number that Jim quoted. We have it in

Rebecca Peterson

Management

They would contribute to the R&D expense.

Jim Frates

Management

Yeah, it will be offset essentially. They are going to cover all our expenses for the development Jim actually, and it would be in R&D revenue and you’d also see it in R&D expense.

Jim Reddoch

Analyst

Okay and those two should totally wash?

Jim Frates

Management

Yeah. For Amylin and for the long acting J&J four week.

Jim Reddoch

Analyst

Got it. Okay. Thank you.

Jim Frates

Management

You are welcome.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from William Ho of Banc of America. Your question please.

William Ho

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I guess the first questions, with respect to RISPERDAL CONSTA, and going from every two weeks to every four weeks, what's the difference in the formulation, and do you need technological improvements to get there? What exactly is involved?

David Broecker

Management

William this is David. I’ll remind everybody that VIVITROL is a once a month injection as well. And when you look at the dose, we think we certainly have the capability from our polymer perspective and from a manufacturing process perspective to do what we need to do. At least, the work that we’ve done with generating these lead formulations, we’ve got all the capabilities to do that.

William Ho

Analyst

Okay, great. And then just one follow-up question on LAR. Last week at our conference, as Amylin had indicated that some of the issues that they were having or that they were trying to deal with was that the FDA doesn't really have guidance towards developing a long-acting injectable. That being said, you guys developed a few of those and they characterize that perhaps they may have to do a PD bridging study. Can you talk a little bit about what you may have done in the past? And if you do have to do such a study, what that might impel from your knowledge?

David Broecker

Management

Good question. Just maybe the best example is VIVITROL. When we got VIVITROL approved, all of the material that we supplied for that clinical program came out of a unit that was basically one kilogram in scale. And we produced dozens of batches at the one kilogram scale to meet all the requirements for the Phase III in safety clinical for VIVITROL. We've had discussions and had ongoing discussions with the FDA about how we were going to demonstrate comparability of that material to the 20 kilogram process that we knew we needed to have in place in order to launch the product. And once we produce the material at the 20 kg scale, once we got the data, we were able then to sit down with the FDA and talk to them about an in vivo-in vitro correlation strategy, and basically we're able to do it based on the data, the science and the conversations that we had with the FDA. And so, I know people are trying to say is that possible with once-weekly exenatide, and the answer is yes. And I think as we've talked, it comes down to making [material-led] which was something that we've done at the West Chester facility. It's gathering that data and now it's having the conversations with the FDA and showing them the science behind it. So, we think they are very parallels between these programs.

William Ho

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Bert Hazlett from BMO Capital Markets. Your question, please?

Bert Hazlett

Analyst

Thanks for taking the questions. Just a couple of them. The $18.1 million regarding Eli Lilly in the termination of the program, should we expect any residual charges with regards to AIR Insulin or do you think that's it?

Jim Frates

Management

No, Bert, that's it. We've written off the equipment that was dedicated to it and the restructuring charge related to the termination of the 120 people that we had to let go because of that.

Bert Hazlett

Analyst

Okay. Second, clearly good increase with regard to CONSTA. Did J&J or do you, with regards to the 27% increase, have a volume versus exchange mix of the breakout of that? Clearly, the weak dollar might have helped that. I'm just trying to tease out exactly how much was volume related there?

Jim Frates

Management

Yeah, absolutely. It was absolutely positive impact of the currency, but units increased approximately 15%.

Bert Hazlett

Analyst

Okay. And then with regards to the four-week formulation, maybe you answered this, maybe you got to it, are the economics of the four-week formulation the same as CONSTA? And I guess the answer, just to maybe split hair a little bit with the answer you gave a little earlier, you haven't guided to any milestones. But are there any milestones in the agreement?

Jim Frates

Management

Sure, Bert. No, there are no milestones. They'll just be covering our R&D costs essentially, which is fine from our perspective. And in terms of the economic yield, it's essentially the same. It's meant to be the same. Of course, we don't know what price they're going to charge, and we don't know what our manufacturing costs are going to be but we've agreed to essentially make it the same to Alkermes.

Bert Hazlett

Analyst

Okay.

Jim Frates

Management

We'll be dealing with that in the future.

Bert Hazlett

Analyst

That's great, that will be a nice product. And in terms of the Phase I PK study and in terms of the expectations for timing, what can we think about, how long this might take? I mean, I know it's early days you just announced this, but how long do you think this might take? Are you able to do it as without full blown clinicals or what do you need to do to get this through to fruition in terms of FDA approval?

Jim Frates

Management

You know, Bert, it will be a typical Phase I type of study where we'll be looking at some PK and safety data. Now because it's a month in duration, it's going to take at least a month but it's not going to be a six month type of thing. So it's going to be a fairly quick study.

Bert Hazlett

Analyst

Okay, thanks.

Rebecca Peterson

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Scott Henry from Roth Capital, your question please.

Scott Henry

Analyst

Thank you. I just had a couple of questions. First, with regards to the Lilly agreement, are there any expectations for any sort of payment coming from them similar to what we saw with Nektar and Pfizer?

Rebecca Peterson

Management

So Scott, thanks for the question. We are currently working things out with Lilly right now and we'll update you as soon as we can.

Scott Henry

Analyst

Okay, fair enough. Secondly, just when we look at the fiscal year 2009, how should we think about the quarterly progression? Should we expect the loss to be at highest and then improving throughout the year or is there anyway we should think about that trajectory?

Jim Frates

Management

Yeah I think, just trying to put this in the right context because we typically don’t give quarterly guidance, and I think as we get into some of these clinical programs though you’ll see some more spending through the course of the year. Of course that’s going to be offset by increasing sales of VIVITROL and increasing sales of CONSTA we hope. So, at this point we are not going to get into giving quarterly guidance right now.

Scott Henry

Analyst

Okay. That’s helpful. And then just a final question in terms of RISPERDAL CONSTA in Japan, any updates there, how should we think about the timing there?

Jim Frates

Management

Rebecca, you are probably --.

Rebecca Peterson

Management

So Scott J&J hasn’t given specific guidance on when they expect to get approval. Clearly the cycle is a little bit longer than what's here in the US, but if the Japanese regulatory authorities stick to their timelines, we should be hearing later this year.

Scott Henry

Analyst

Thank you.

Rebecca Peterson

Management

Thank you. Operator, we have time for one more question.

Operator

Operator

Our final question is from Cory Kasimov of JPMorgan. Your question please.

Cory Kasimov

Analyst

Yeah, thanks for taking the follow-up. Just one question quick, regarding the technology being used to potentially move CONSTA from a twice a month to once a month product, could that eventually be applied perhaps to the LAR program to further optimize or extend the dosing of that molecule?

Jim Frates

Management

Good question. It's something that we’ve considered and I think we’ll – that’s something we’ll do, we’ll inform you about it later/

Cory Kasimov

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Jim Frates

Management

Okay.

Rebecca Peterson

Management

Thanks Cory. Thank you everyone for coming in and if you have any additional follow up questions, we’d be happy to take them. Have a great evening.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen thank you for participating in today’s conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.