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The Allstate Corporation (ALL)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 4, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Allstate Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's program, Pat Macellaro, Vice President-Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Patrick Macellaro - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Jonathan. Good morning and welcome, everyone, to Allstate's second quarter 2015 earnings conference call. After prepared remarks by Tom Wilson, Matt Winter, Steve Shebik and myself, we'll have a question-and-answer session. Yesterday afternoon we issued our news release, filed our 10-Q for the second quarter and posted the results presentation we'll use this morning, along with an update to our 2015 countrywide reinsurance program to reflect the placement of our Florida program. We also have posted our second quarter 2015 investor supplement. We strive to provide transparency into our results and trends and to continuously get better. So to that end, you'll find a number of expanded disclosures in the investor supplement this quarter. For example, we provide Allstate brand auto paid frequency in addition to the gross frequency statistics, since paid frequency is more commonly disclosed and used in industry data reports. The investor supplement along with the other documents I mentioned earlier is available on our website at allstateinvestors.com. Our discussion today will contain forward-looking statements regarding Allstate's operations. Allstate's results may differ materially from these statements, so please refer to our 10-K for 2014, the slides and our most recent news release for information on potential risks. Also, this discussion will contain some non-GAAP measures, which there are reconciliations in our news release and in our investor supplement. We're recording this call and a replay will be available following its conclusion and I'll be available to answer any follow-up questions you may have after the call. And now I'll turn it over to Tom. Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Thank you for investing your time to keep current on Allstate. I'll begin with an overview and then Pat, Matt and Steve will go through the results in detail. Also here…

Patrick Macellaro - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Tom. Let's start by taking a look at the Property-Liability P&L on slide four. Starting with the chart on the top of the slide, Property-Liability had net written premium of $7.9 billion in the second quarter of 2015, 4.4% higher than the second quarter of 2014. Through the first six months of 2015, net written premium grew by 4.6%, while protection policies in force grew by 2.6%. Catastrophe losses of $797 million in the second quarter of 2015 were 14.9% lower than the prior-year quarter, but the impact was more than offset by deterioration in the underlying combined ratio, resulting in a recorded combined ratio of 100.1 and a small underwriting loss for the quarter. Recorded combined ratio for the first six months of the year was 96.9, which was 0.8 point worse than the first six months of 2014. The underlying combined ratio for the second quarter and first six months of 2015 was 89.1, elevated over the levels we experienced in 2014. Net investment income of $292 million for the Property-Liability segment decreased 16.8% from the second quarter of 2014, due primarily to lower but still strong limited partnership returns in the quarter. As a result, Property-Liability operating income of $198 million in the second quarter of 2015 was significantly below the prior-year result, while the $753 million of operating income through the first six months of 2015 was 9.5% below the first six months of 2014. The chart in the upper right is to help orient you to the respective earned premium contribution our three underwriting brands have for both auto and homeowners insurance. Bottom of the slide contains growth trend information, as well as a view of Property-Liability recorded and underlying combined ratio trends. Protection premium and policy growth trends are in the chart on…

Matthew E. Winter - President of The Allstate Corporation and CEO of Allstate Life Insurance Company

Management

Thanks, Pat. I'll start on slide six by providing some context about what is driving our auto results, how we are thinking through the trends and, most importantly, how we are responding to them. Last quarter, we said that increases in our auto claim frequency trends were evident broadly across geographies, risk classes and customer tenure. We noted that the trend appeared to be driven primarily by external factors, most notably by an increase in miles driven, and to a lesser extent, adverse weather in certain parts of the country. What we observed in the second quarter confirmed that. As you saw in our results, our bodily injury and property damage claim frequency trends were both significantly elevated compared to the second quarter of 2014. As we have noted, frequency can be very volatile on a quarterly basis, and so year-over-year comparisons are difficult. Some of the increase we observed this past quarter was driven by the exceptionally strong performance last year, but our absolute levels of frequency in the second quarter were at the high end of our five-year expected range and were generally consistent with the elevated levels we experienced in the first quarter. The largest difference in the second quarter was that there was not a material impact to auto claim frequency from weather. As a matter of fact, the northeast part of the country, which bore the brunt of the winter weather earlier this year, performed better than other parts of the country in second quarter. We continue to retest our hypothesis around the primary drivers of frequency, and our analysis continues to support the conclusion that these trends are principally driven by external factors. Miles driven and Allstate's auto claim frequency have historically been very tightly correlated with one another, particularly over shorter periods of…

Operator

Operator

Certainly. Our first question comes from the line of Jay Gelb from Barclays; your question please.

Jay H. Gelb - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you. Clearly I think the main topic of the call will be on auto insurance and how those margins can be improved. You outline on slide eight the impact of the rate increases beginning to materialize in the third quarter; but I think there's some concern around how fast overall the margins can improve either from the combination of rate increases and also addressing expenses. So perhaps you can give us a bit more clarity in your outlook on that. Thanks. Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Jay, I'll start and then Matt can join in. First, we think this is very doable that we can get margins back to where they were. Obviously, you can do your own estimate. We tried to provide some measure of how much dollars will come through the P&L on that slide that Matt showed. But also, you can look and know that we do disclose that we're increasing our price increases from where we've been so far this year, so you can factor that in. As it relates to expenses, I would say, what we're doing is tightening our belt, but we continue to invest in the future. So, you'll remember in 2011, when we had issues in homeowner profitability, we continued to invest in long-term stuff like advertising and continuing to increase our expenses. Same thing is true this year. We're cutting some expenses, but we'll continue to invest heavily, for example, in things like DriveWise and DriveSense, which is the future for us. Matt can talk about both his prospects for rate increases and expense reductions.

Matthew E. Winter - President of The Allstate Corporation and CEO of Allstate Life Insurance Company

Management

Sure. Thanks for the question, Jay. You mentioned rate increases and expense reductions. I'd also remind you that we considered the underwriting actions and correct class programs and things like that a third lever that we're engaging in this effort because we are, in fact, tightening some of our underwriting parameters, providing some increased focus on correct class programs and we'll continue to use underwriting in conjunction with that. On the expenses, I'd point you to page 59 of the Q. We are clear there that the targeted expense reductions will represent approximately 0.4 point on the annualized Allstate brand expense ratio. So you can factor that into your calculations as well. As Tom said, we are accelerating to the extent possible our rate taking and so far we've been quite successful with the states. We're not getting a great deal of pushback. Our acceptance and approval level is high. We are doing it on a micro segmented basis, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks. We're attempting to not just take broad rate increases, but to focus them on the specific segments where we're having underperformance or loss pressure, and so we feel good about our prospects for aggressively pursuing that. Obviously, on the slide I showed on earning-in the rate, I have to stop at the end of the second quarter, but you have to hypothetically add on to that what we might be able to take over the rest of this year and into next year, and it will compound and we feel comfortable that we will get back to an appropriate targeted level of auto profitability as quickly as possible.

Jay H. Gelb - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

I appreciate that. Tom, with regard to the 87 to 89 underlying combined ratio target, given where we are in first half, are you essentially signaling you'll do whatever it takes to get it under 89? Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: We made the commitment because we believe we can get there, yes, Jay.

Jay H. Gelb - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Can you give us any sense of what you're seeing in terms of auto profitability trends in July? Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: No, given we just closed, no.

Jay H. Gelb - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis of Credit Suisse; your question please. Ryan J. Tunis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hey, thanks, good morning. I guess the first question is just on the 1.5% of rate that you've gotten on the book. Can we expect that number to be at least 1.5% for the remaining quarters of the year? Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: 1.25%? I'm not... Ryan J. Tunis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): For the Allstate brand auto. The rate increases as a percentage of the starting book. Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, the rate increases – it's 1.25%; that's throwing me for a little bit. So it's 1.5% for the quarter and what we've indicated is we would expect it to go up as we move throughout the rest of this year, up from the 1.5%. Ryan J. Tunis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. That's helpful. And then just back to Matt, I guess, on the expense ratio reduction in Allstate brand, the 0.4 points. That's net of the investments you talked about, so we should think about the expense ratio getting 0.4 point better, correct?

Matthew E. Winter - President of The Allstate Corporation and CEO of Allstate Life Insurance Company

Management

Yes. Ryan J. Tunis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. And then I guess my last question is just on thinking about trend versus the location specific rate increases. I guess location specific is 3.6%, which actually was a modest deceleration from the previous quarter, and just hearing you talk about your view of frequency, it's sort of 2% and severity picking up. I guess I'm just wondering why the location specific rate increases aren't greater than 3.6%.

Matthew E. Winter - President of The Allstate Corporation and CEO of Allstate Life Insurance Company

Management

Yeah, Ryan, the state specific is influenced heavily by mix and that's not really a representative number to look at. Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: As it relates to severity, I think – Matt's point there was, we have a broad-based approach to making sure we're going to come in where we want to come in and he's just referring to there's no stone unturned. Ryan J. Tunis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Understood, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kai Pan from Morgan Stanley; your question please. Kai Pan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thank you, good morning. So just follow up on that, if you look at your frequency up more than 6 points and severity like anywhere between 1 point to 4 points, add these together you're close to the high-single digits, so-called loss cost trends increase. So is that pricing increase you're instituting right now enough to catch up for those? And do you expect these loss cost trends continue at these levels that you would need more pricing increases basically to improve your underwriting results? Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Okay, Kai, let me just set the bar. So as Matt mentioned, it is up and your numbers are absolutely correct as it relates to the second quarter. On one of the slides in the presentation you can see the dip down in costs in Q2 of 2014, and what Matt has said is, of course, some of the up is – that 6.9% is because of that down. But it's also just up higher than we'd want. So we're doing everything we think we need to do to adjust that. Let me maybe make a – so underneath that, perhaps, as it may be your question about did we react quickly enough, and I think Matt's team has reacted incredibly quickly to this and the system is fully aligned on improving profitability. Just to provide some details to that, when you look at total costs, that's the losses plus expenses, which combines both the frequency and the severity, as you point out, and you compare it to the rate of increases we're taking in pricing, that is an appropriate…

Matthew E. Winter - President of The Allstate Corporation and CEO of Allstate Life Insurance Company

Management

Yes. Thank you for the question. First of all, it's important to distinguish between impacting growth rate and impacting growth. So, what we said was we expect the rate of growth to dampen a bit as these profitability actions take effect. We have had eight consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth in the auto business. We have been consistently improving that growth rate during all of that period. Retention has remained at fairly historic highs. New business has been exceptionally strong. And my only point in saying that the growth rate might decline is we do think that at some point, taking all of these rate and underwriting actions will dampen our ability to continue accelerating. That is not to say we expect not to grow. We will grow and we've said multiple times we intend to continue to add items in here. We just don't believe that we'll continue on the same trend line that we've been on. Kai Pan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Great. Lastly if I may, on capital management, does this frequency issue with the delay, some of your capital management, how do you balance that? Because your operating earnings apparently is down a little bit year-over-year. You still expect this current pace of buybacks, or you'll take them back a little bit to just see how it plays out? And how do you balance also of course with your share price? Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: It has no impact on our capital plans. Kai Pan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker from Deutsche Bank; your question please.

Josh D. Shanker - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Josh.

Josh D. Shanker - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning. So, two questions. First one, you can talk about the methodology behind paid severity versus incurred severity? And what are we seeing and how do those two things differ compared to what you publicly tell the Street? Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Listen, we're struggling with what the question is, because – between...

Josh D. Shanker - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

So In terms of your disclosures, when did you know – is this representing paid losses here? Are these incurred losses? And trying to understand when we see this, what are the chances that Allstate is being proactive and seeing a trend ahead of everybody else versus that Allstate is being reactive here? Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Okay. Let me make a general comment and then Steve can fill in here. So, of course, paid is just what we paid out and we don't report incurred. But when we do our reserving, we do it on an absolute claim reported basis. So we look at how many claims are reported, and then we estimate what we think the incurred severity will be. We do that in a number of ways. We look at what's paid out on claims, we look at field reserves. We adjust those field reserves for the fact that they develop upwards over time. And then we have, of course, claims that have been incurred but not reported. So, as opposed to – some people set their reserves based on a targeted loss ratio. So, they'll say you start the year off and say we're going to write $1,000 worth of business, we think the loss ratio will be 70, so they book $700 worth of losses. That's not the way they do it. I can't speak to whether that is – how other people do their reserving. I'm sure they're accurate and highly focused on it as well. There's lots of actuarial science and lots of review that goes on for anybody that reports this stuff. So, I can only tell you what we do which is – and so, the reason we report paid is, it's a good, clean number…

Josh D. Shanker - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

I realize that you don't disclose the incurred frequency number. But given the move in the quarterly combined ratio, is incurred frequency running ahead of paid frequency, or are they the same? Or you just have no comment on that matter? Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: We base our profitability based on the number of claims that have been reported and adjusted for those that we think have not been reported. So, it's actually live what happens. So, when we're closing July right now, we know exactly how many claims we had in July, and that's what runs through the P&L.

Josh D. Shanker - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then another question and I'll get off this topic, but I'm sure someone else will pick it up. Five years ago we said let's just start over at Encompass; it's not working and we need to take major action. We're here five years later. Should I be thinking, even though I can't see it, that Encompass is a better business than it was five years ago? Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. It's a good question and one we talk a lot about. Let me maybe set the really long-term context, and then talk about where we are today. And Kathy can give you some specifics about the profit improvement programs. So, first, we actually bought Encompass in 1999. At the time, it had a combined ratio of 117. We took it down into the low 90's, which was a good thing because it obviously generated a lot of profit for us. The even better news is, we didn't pay much more it. So it generated a good return on our capital. And so, even today, with its results, it looks like an acceptable return on capital. That said, this has been a difficult channel for us to maintain consist profitability. In part, there's intense competition, of course, at the point of customer interaction, and the customers tend to be highly price sensitive. We should be able to leverage both our auto and homeowners insurance expertise to compete effectively. That said, our current results aren't where we'd like them, but we have to continue to develop our capabilities to compete, as you point out, on a long-term basis. Kathy can talk about the things we're doing specifically, today, to get that combined ratio down both on a recorded basis and underlying basis.

Katherine A. Mabe - President-Business to Business

Analyst

Okay, thank you, Tom. Well, as you know, at Encompass we're focused on the mass affluent and we're focused strategically on building core strength around pricing and underwriting discipline, claims excellence, and really good distribution management. And with regard to the profitability challenges we're experiencing and continue to experience at Encompass, we're using a three-pronged approach. So we're looking at the same things that Matt talked about. Rate increases, underwriting actions and expense reductions. And you can see how we're leaning into rates, if you take a look at page 14 of the investor supplement. You can see almost 10 points of rate that we are planning to take or have taken, on the auto line, and it's broad based. It's across 29 states. So 85% of the book is getting a significant rate increase in the auto line. In homeowners, we're also taking rates as well, and you can see that on page 14 of the investor supplement. And you can see, it's even more aggressive in location-specific rates, and we have a couple of really outlier states in terms of problematic performance. We're taking really strong action. And that's impacting that PIF number, that negative PIF number, significantly. From an underwriting perspective, we're focused at agency level actions related to profit and correct class, like Matt talked about. Things like insurance to value. Some of the things that we needed to strengthen to compete in this channel. And then, across the country, we strengthened our inspection standards on homeowners and looked at some of our payment practices around late pays and reinstates. From an expense perspective, you can see on page 59 in the Q that we're down 0.6 in the quarter and 0.8 on a year-to-date basis, and that's from managing our technology expenses, our people expenses, and our distribution costs. So, we've reduced commissions in our monoline auto line of business, because, as you know, in Encompass, we're focused on package policy growth. So, your question is a good one and it's a journey that we've been on for a while in Encompass. We are working aggressively across all those fronts, the strategy around mass affluent, strong disciplined pricing, excellence in claims, and really skillful distribution management to reposition Encompass for long-term profitable growth.

Josh D. Shanker - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Good luck. Would love to see it.

Katherine A. Mabe - President-Business to Business

Analyst

Me too.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sarah DeWitt from JPMorgan.

Sarah E. DeWitt - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi, good morning. On the Allstate brand auto underlying combined ratio of about 98%, how should we think about the trajectory of that going forward? Is it going to get worse before it gets better? Or are the rate actions you've taken so far enough to start to see an inflection point in that soon? Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Sarah, we're not – if you look – you'll have to do your own estimate, but I think we would expect that, if we are going to be at 89, below 89, we're obviously going to have to at least hold it, because of where we are with – we're at 89.1 for six months. So in all the actions Matt talked about, the rate slide, all that shows it burning in. You can estimate – you could calculate that, what you would think it would be by quarter, by fact, and we think we've given enough information about the prices we've already had approved. You can factor in then – to that what prices you think we will try to get approved and when those will roll in. And then you have the expense ratio number that Matt talked about. On top of that, you'll have to make an estimate of frequency and severity, obviously. And Matt gave some numbers as to what the longer term trends are in frequency and severity. I would say, if you look at miles driven today, they're relatively high on an historical basis, and so frequency is up. Could frequency continue to go up, of course it could, which is why we always have a range and why we're adapting our pricing and profitability actions. So, you'll have to just make your own estimate of that piece. But we are not giving a specific by-quarter underlying combined ratio for auto insurance for the Allstate brand.

Sarah E. DeWitt - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And does your guidance of 89% or better, does that contemplate the potential for deterioration in severity trends as well? Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: As you would expect, we've done all kinds of analysis around that. And we have a range of what the underlying combined ratio will be for this year, given that we are six months in and knowing what we know. But also knowing that there's a variety of things we don't know and can't predict. So, there's a range around that. But we felt comfortable that we would be below 89 to stay committed to it.

Sarah E. DeWitt - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay, great. And then if I can just get one more in, on the net investment income, how should we be thinking about the run rate there given some of the changes you made on the duration? Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I'll let Judy talk about the specific net investment income. But I'll point out, just in terms of what we have done, right, so if you look at our investment position, we've tried to position the portfolios on the appropriate risk adjusted return basis. We're not trying to be a hedge fund and mark-to-market every quarter. If we don't like the risk per unit of return, then we make changes. And so, the changes we started making two or three years ago was for higher interest rates. And so we shorten the duration on the Property-Liability portfolio. As we disclosed, we started to shorten that duration in the long-term payout annuity block in Allstate Financial and some of the capital accounts this year, because we believe that the return per unit of risk for interest rates was not attractive to us. And then we began to shift into some idiosyncratic equity-like investments called performance based, which generate higher long-term returns on a risk-adjusted basis, but leads to more variability, as in limited partnership returns.

Judith P. Greffin - Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer

Analyst

So, Sarah, thanks for the question. As Tom said, we're taking action in Allstate Financial to reduce our interest rate risk, to improve our expected returns, and as a result, you'll see some gains as well as some deterioration in net invested income. As Tom also said, we are taking the actions in basically two places, in our long duration payout block, and there what we are looking to do, as Tom said, is reinvest primarily in equities. Initially, what you'll see is that will likely be in public equities, but over time we're going to move it into more of that idiosyncratic risk that Tom just talked about. On the surplus side, we're shortening the duration, and there – that surplus account is going to look more and more like the protection account that Tom just mentioned where we shortened duration there and really kept it in fixed income for the most part, even though it's a balanced account. But that fixed income piece to that surplus account is just going to be at a shorter duration. As Tom said, as we look at the risk adjusted return of interest rate risk and just don't feel that we're getting paid to be in the longer end of the curve. Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I think the important thing to think about from shareholder value creation is we believe in looking at long-term shareholder value creation, and so when we shortened the Property-Liability portfolio we took a pretty significant hit to operating earnings per share because we thought it was in our shareholders' best interest. You'll see not as large but also a significant impact as it relates to Allstate Financial in the short term because we're harvesting gains and giving up operating income. But we believe that's in the right interest of shareholders and we don't run the place just on operating EPS on a quarterly basis.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bob Glasspiegel from Janney; your question please.

Robert R. Glasspiegel - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

Analyst

Good morning, Allstate. A quick question on how we should think about – on the first-quarter call you highlighted that you were seeing frequency ticking up and seeing a need to take decisive action. I was hoping to see that the PIF growth would slow, and in fact the PIF accelerated against a tough comparison. Maybe you could talk to what the dynamics are that led to the acceleration. Is that something we should think is a good thing or a bad thing?

Matthew E. Winter - President of The Allstate Corporation and CEO of Allstate Life Insurance Company

Management

Bob, thanks for the question. We spent an awful lot of time and energy getting our agency force engaged, building up capacity, adding points of distribution, adding licensed sales professionals, entering markets where we had been geographically underpenetrated, and over time that along with some of the work we have done on the rating plans has improved close rates and quote rates and we have begun growing and the momentum has built on itself. And so while we have taken a bunch of rate actions and underwriting actions already that growth momentum has been so strong and so systemic that it has still not shown up to dampen those growth rates. But, as we said several times during the call, that has a limit. I don't know exactly when that's going to occur. A lot of it depends upon competitor actions as well, and whether or not competitors are taking rates as well or whether they're waiting this out. It will depend upon the mix in different areas and geographic concentrations of our competitors. So I think that growth is a good thing. Obviously growth with targeted levels of profitability is our goal, and so right now I'm focused, and the team is focused extensively on the profitability challenges to make sure we get that in line and so that the growth yields shareholder value, long term shareholder value in a long term, productive way. Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Bob, let me share some analysis that Matt did as well, which gets to the question of your competitors have better pricing or you are growing by being underpriced, which I think might be underlying your question there. And the data does not show that to be true. So he looked at one measure of competitiveness, of course, is your close rate and that's how many of your customers take the policy after they quote. And while price is not the only reason somebody would close, obviously we think they close because we give them good local advice and have great service, but it is obviously very important. Those states where we have the highest close rate tend to have very low loss ratios, which would lead you to conclude we're not underpriced as a way of driving that growth. If you look at the bigger states, they have lower close rates than some of the – ones that have higher close rates, which are – they are more competitive states. But the vast majority of those big states have loss ratios that are below our targets. So the conclusion then is, we're winning through sophistication, not lower price.

Robert R. Glasspiegel - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

Analyst

Well, I have every conviction that you guys know how to do auto underwriting. The question is sort of what the timing is of getting to where you want to get to. And I think I'd have more conviction if you were shrinking rather than winning due to your good franchise. So I appreciate the answer, and those were thoughtful responses. If I could have one other quick follow-up, your expense ratio cuts, you said advertising. What other areas have you targeted as opportunities to cut expenses without getting to the bone? Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, Bob, so it's advertising, technology, professional services and several employee-related costs, and that's what we've disclosed and that's the action that we're taking.

Matthew E. Winter - President of The Allstate Corporation and CEO of Allstate Life Insurance Company

Management

Bob, it's belt-tightening. Not draconian. Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes.

Robert R. Glasspiegel - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: We will take one last question.

Operator

Operator

Certainly. Our final question comes from the line of Michael Nannizzi from Goldman Sachs; your question please. Michael Nannizzi - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thanks. Just I guess following up on Bob's question, if I could. When you guys had – and I'm not comparing magnitude – but like when the homeowners business went through a period of difficulty, I mean you guys pulled back from growth, I mean it was no longer even on the table, and you did what you needed to do to get the profitability of that book back where you wanted it to be. And that was very successful. I guess my question is, at what point do you take your foot off the pedal, the growth pedal, not just sort of partially and not just sort of tipping your hat to profitability, but entirely and sort of focus attention exclusively on getting the profitability back where you want it?

Matthew E. Winter - President of The Allstate Corporation and CEO of Allstate Life Insurance Company

Management

It's Matt. Michael, let me make sure because maybe I wasn't as clear as I should have been in my opening remarks. One of the bodies of work that we did was to go back and look at whether or not the loss ratio pressure and the frequency pressure was showing up in the growth areas and in the new business, or whether or not it was showing up consistently across the books. And, in fact, when we did that analysis, we saw those old blocks of historically profitable business, long-tenured customers, unrelated to any of our recent growth. We're experiencing significant frequency changes as well, consistent with what the overall book is experiencing. So, the pressure we're seeing is not specific to growth segments. It's not specific to growth geographies. It's not specific to anything related to growth. We're seeing it across the broad book. So slowing down growth, the only part that that will impact is that what we refer to as the new business penalty, which is that differential with the normal new to renewal ratio. And as I said, we are monitoring that closely, and we will take appropriate action to ensure that we hit the targeted underlying combined ratio. Michael Nannizzi - Goldman Sachs & Co.: All right. Thomas J. Wilson - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: So, let me just close to say, first, Allstate's operating philosophy is profitable growth. When you compete in an industry that has an overall return on capital below our targets that means you have to have the guiding principle that profit is the biggest driver of shareholder value. Obviously, you have to be sophisticated and you have to react quickly, all of which we're doing. We've done this before, whether that's in homeowners or other businesses. We do are proactive in managing shareholder value on a long-term basis. So, for example, in the investment portfolio, we are willing to give up operating earnings per share, if we believe it creates long-term shareholder value. And we'll continue to operate with that philosophy of creating shareholder value. So, we expect to continue to drive results and we'll talk to you next quarter.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.