Earnings Labs

Antero Midstream Corporation (AM)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 14, 2019

$21.81

-0.18%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Antero Midstream Partners LP Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2018 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Michael Kennedy, CFO and Senior Vice President, Finance. Please go ahead.

Michael Kennedy

Analyst

Thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream's fourth quarter 2018 investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the home page of our new Web site at www.anteromidstream.com or www.anteromidstreamgp.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call. Before we start our comments, I would first like to remind you that, during this call, Antero management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero Resources, Antero Midstream and AMGP and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control. Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements. Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO of Antero Resources and Antero Midstream; and Glen Warren, President and CFO of Antero Resources and President of Antero Midstream. Before turning the call over to Paul, I wanted to briefly touch on the simplification transaction timeline on slide number four. As you are aware, on October 9th, AMGP announced a definitive agreement to acquire AM in a stock and cash transaction. On January 31, AMGP and AM each mailed proxy statements to their respective shareholders and unitholders. For registered holders, the deadline for electing a cash versus stock consideration is March 4th at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time and the deadline for voting electronically or by telephone is March 7th at 11:59 p.m. Eastern time. If you hold AM units or AMGP shares through a bank, broker, or other nominee, you should follow the instructions provided by them. All AMGP shareholders and AM unitholders of record as of the close of business on January 11th will be entitled to vote the AMGP common shares and AM common units respectively. The special meetings for AMGP shareholders and AM unitholders to approve the simplification transaction are scheduled for March 8 and we expect the transaction to close on March 12. We encourage all of our shareholders and unitholders to vote and we remain very excited about the outlook of new AM. With that, I'll turn the call over to Paul

Paul Rady

Analyst

Thanks, Mike. I'll begin my comments on slide number 5 titled Long-Term Outlook-AR. As previously disclosed, AR is targeting a 10% to 15% production growth CAGR through 2023. This target range is based on commodity price scenarios of $50 oil and $2.85 gas on the low end and $65 oil and $3.15 gas on the high end. Importantly, all of AR's firm transportation portfolio is now in service, providing the visibility to continue to grow production and access diverse and premium priced markets. Looking ahead, Antero Resources will continue to maintain a flexible development plan targeting drilling and completion capital budgets within cash flow to maintain balance sheet strength ultimately benefiting new AM. Slide number 6 titled, Long-Term Outlook New AM illustrates the DCF growth at new AM from the same AR production growth outlook. New AM is targeting DCF growth of 18% to 25% through Cal 22 at the low end and high end of the outlook ranges respectively. Because of the visibility and flexible just-in-time capital investment, both scenarios result in de-levering the balance sheet into the low to mid-2 times range. This DCF growth supports a growing return of capital as illustrated on slide number 7. The grey bar on the left-hand side of the page represents new AM’s 2019 dividend guidance of $1.24 per share or just over $600 million in total dividends. The blue lines represent new AM’s DCF CAGR versus consensus growth CapEx in orange. As you can see after the major infrastructure investments in 2019 including gathering and freshwater trunklines, supporting growth in Tyler and Wetzel counties in West Virginia, the capital budget moderates as AM leverages the existing infrastructure. This moderating capital budget relative to DCF growth results in excess cash flow available for increasing the dividends, share repurchases, de-levering and capital…

Michael Kennedy

Analyst

Thank you, Paul. Before getting into my AM comments, I'd like to briefly touch on a AR's announcement of deconsolidating Am from a financial reporting perspective. For those that were able to listen into the AR conference call, AR announced that it plans to no longer consolidate AM on its gap financial statements upon closing of the simplification transaction. So rather record its interest in AM through the equity method of accounting. In our view, we believe this will greatly improve the transparency and disclosure for AR on a standalone E&P basis. And enable investors to more easily compare and contrast AR with its peers. The announcement has no impact on New AM's recording and AR will still own approximately 30% of New AM upon closing of the simplification transaction. Paul mentioned this in his comments. But we continue to believe in the benefits of the integrated model and coordinated efforts between our upstream and midstream businesses. Now moving on to AM beginning on slide nine titled Long Track Record of Success, we recently announced an AM distribution of $0.47 per unit, a 29% increase year-over-year and a 7% increase sequentially. The fourth quarter distribution at AM was the 16th consecutive distribution increase since its IPO. For the full-year 2018, we had a distribution of $1.72 per unit or $0.94 when converted into a New AM share as illustrated on the slide. AM continued its trend of out performance on the DCF coverage in 2018, generating 1.3 times DCF coverage well in excess to the IPO DCF coverage target of 1.1 times to 1.2 times. We're very proud of this achievement resiliency of the Antero Midstream business model through the commodity downturn. As depicted on slide, our dividend guidance for New AM 2019 is $1.24 per share representing approximately a…

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] There are no questions at this time. : :

Michael Kennedy

Analyst

Great. Well, thank you everyone for joining us today. If there are any questions, please feel free to reach out to us. And thanks again for joining us.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines. Have a great day.