Jay Horgen
Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question
Okay. So, Dan, just as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the change in guidance, the revision is entirely attributable to lower beta since our last call, which is off about 3% since the last time we gave guidance. This is reflecting the downward volatility in global markets that started late June, continues through yesterday, I guess. Stepping back though, just on the convention and then I will address your question about quarter-to-date. Our convention is since our last call April 28, we assumed zero markets for the remainder of second quarter and 2% for the third quarter. As I just mentioned though, the actual blend was off 3% from April 28, which is the last time we did the guidance through yesterday, which results in a 5% cumulative market decline versus our model. As you know, for the remainder of the year, we will assume no additional market this quarter, for the remainder of the third quarter and then 2% in the fourth quarter. So, that’s our guidance. And so when we look at the revision, it was just entirely a market-driven revision. But the detail you were looking for, a little extra detail on quarter-to-quarter changes, first, as you saw on our AUM table, we experienced almost no contribution from market change in the quarter. So, it was basically flat. And then from June 30 through yesterday, our market blend was off about 1%. So, that’s another way of looking at the same market on a quarterly basis. On repurchases, so this quarter, our share count was 55.6 million. In the third quarter, we expect the share count to come in because of the weighted average effect. In the second quarter, we will have a full effect on the third quarter. And that 125 million that we repurchased was more reflective of the fact that we didn’t have material new investments in the period. I think we – well, go back to the model convention, which is just a convention of 50% of annual economic net income for repurchases, but the substantive point is our first priority is new investments to the extent that in – because of the accident of time, timing, we don’t have a new investment or material new investments, we might do a little more. As we look forward in the second half of the year, we do have a good pipeline and we will be mindful of the new investment opportunity as it relates to the capital that we put out.