David Meline
Analyst · Citigroup
Okay. Thanks Bob. Before I review our results and guidance, I would like to take a moment to reflect on our performance over the last several years. As Bob mentioned, we entered 2017 as another year, which presented significant challenges related to the transition of our portfolio as well as the evolving competitive dynamics of the industry as a whole. In the face of these expected and other not so expected challenges including Hurricane Maria, I am pleased to report that we delivered positive performance again in 2017. Additionally, with regard to our 5-year goals, we have already delivered or have clear line of sight to delivering on the commitments we established in 2014. The first goal was to achieve a substantial improvement in our operating efficiency agility and speed with the resulting outcome of the non-GAAP operating margin between 52% and 54%, representing a 15 point increase at the midpoint. We achieved this objective starting in 2016, 2 years ahead of our commitment. Second, in 2017 we delivered the $1.5 billion transformation savings commitment and will exceed that goal in 2018. Third through our next-generation bio-manufacturing capability as well as other efforts to optimize our fixed capital infrastructure, we are on track to meet our 2018 goal of reducing our facility footprint by 23%. Finally, based on today’s 2018 guidance I am pleased to confirm our expected delivery on the other key objectives of both double digit non-GAAP EPS growth and providing returns to shareholders of at least 60% of non-GAAP net income on average during the period 2014 to 2018. These commitments are being achieved before benefiting from tax reform which further enhances Amgen’s performance in 2018 and beyond. Now let’s turn to the fourth quarter financial results on Page 6 of the slide deck. Revenue at $5.8 billion declined 3% year-over-year. This quarter we saw worldwide product sales at $5.6 billion as unit demand from our growth products largely offset mature product declines. We are particularly encouraged by our 10% year-over-year volume growth in markets outside the U.S. reflecting the value of our innovative products in these international markets, many of which have experienced biosimilar competition and portfolio transition for a number of years. Other revenues at $233 million, decreased $69 million year-over-year as a result of the milestone payment received in the fourth quarter of 2016 related to the out-licensing of AMG 139. Our Q4 non-GAAP operating income at $2.6 billion declined 11% from prior year. Non-GAAP operating margin was 45.9% for the quarter. As previously indicated our operating expenses reflected the typical underlying fourth quarter pattern. We also experienced a number of additional expenses in the quarter including $79 million of Hurricane Maria recovery costs, incremental expenses accelerated for tax planning purposes, as well as inventory related costs. Finally, we increased our investments in support of volume driven growth as we expand activities for our products addressing unmet medical needs in large patient populations, including launch preparations in advance of the upcoming Aimovig launch. These increases were partially offset by continued favorable expense impacts from our transformation initiatives across all operating expense categories and the expiry of the Enbrel residual royalty payment on October 31, 2016. Other income and expenses were a net $31 million expense in Q4. This is favorable $171 million on a year-over-year basis. This year-over-year favorability was primarily due to higher interest income, gains in our venture portfolio and gains from investment portfolio rebalancing in the fourth quarter of this year, coupled with favorable compares on both of these items in 2016. A portion of these activities were taken in anticipation of changes in tax and accounting standards effective in 2018. The non-GAAP tax rate was 16.6% for the quarter, a 2.1 point improvement versus Q4 of 2016 reflecting favorable changes in the geographic mix of earnings this year. While not impacting our non-GAAP P&L, we incurred a $6.1 billion charge on our fourth quarter GAAP P&L related to U.S. corporate tax reform, including the repatriation tax and revaluation of net deferred tax liabilities. The repatriation tax will be paid to the U.S. government over an 8-year period. Non-GAAP net income decreased 3% and non-GAAP earnings per share, was flat year-over-year for the fourth quarter. Please find a summary of our 2017 full year results on Page 7 of the presentation. Our 2017 full year revenues declined 1% to $22.85 billion, while our non-GAAP earnings per share grew 8% to $12.58 per share. For the full year, we saw flat worldwide product sales growth of $21.8 billion. Changes in foreign exchange had a 1% negative impact to total revenue and product sales for the full year on a year-over-year basis. For the full year, non-GAAP operating income at $11.7 billion grew 2% from prior year, including $146 million of nonrecurring expenses associated with the recovery from Hurricane Maria. Our non-GAAP operating margin improved by 1.2 points to 53.5% for the year as we realized the benefits from our ongoing transformation initiatives and the expiry of the Enbrel residual royalty payment. On a non-GAAP basis, cost of sales as a percent of product sales increased 5.2 points to 13.5% driven primarily by expenses related to Hurricane Maria recovery efforts. Unfavorable product mix and other inventory costs offset partially by lower royalties and manufacturing cost efficiencies. Research and development decreased 7% year-over-year driven primarily by lower external business development expenses and lower spending required to support certain later stage clinical programs. SG&A expenses decreased 2% year-over-year due to the expiration of the Enbrel residual royalty partially offset by our increasing investments to drive volume growth in our products, which address unmet needs in large patient populations. In total, non-GAAP operating expenses decreased 3% year-over-year to $11.2 billion. Through the end of 2017, overall operating expenses have decreased by approximately $500 million versus 2013 levels. Included within this total is an incremental annual expense of $1.5 billion required to launch and maintain new products, build out new therapeutic areas, advance our biosimilars business and increase our global presence. Other income and expenses were favorable by $255 million on a year-over-year basis due to higher interest income on our higher cash balances as well as venture portfolio gains and milestones we realized across the course of the year. The non-GAAP tax rate was 18% for the full year, down 0.8 points versus 2016. The year-over-year decline was primarily driven by changes in the geographic mix of earnings offset partially by lower tax benefits from share-based compensation payments. Turning next to cash flow and the balance sheet on Page 8. For the full year 2017, Amgen continued to demonstrate strong and durable cash flow generation with $10.5 billion in free cash flow versus $9.6 billion last year. This increase was primarily driven by higher operating income and favorable changes in working capital. Cash and investments increased to $41.7 billion. This balance included $3.1 billion in the U.S. and $38.6 billion outside the U.S. Total debt outstanding at year end totaled $35.3 billion and carries a weighted average interest rate of 3.7% and an average maturity of 12 years. In 2017, we deployed $3.1 billion to repurchase 18.5 million shares at an average of $169 per share. At the end of 2017, we had $4.4 billion remaining on our existing share repurchase authorization. Additionally for 2017, we increased our dividend per share by 15% to $1.15 per quarter, with payments totaling $3.4 billion. Based on our confidence in the future outlook for the enterprise and our continued commitment to our capital allocation strategy, we also announced a 15% increase to the dividend to $1.32 per share for the first quarter of 2018. Turning to the outlook for the business for 2018 on Page 9, 2018 will be another important year for Amgen as we continue investing in the pipeline, building out our global business and supporting our new product growth. In anticipation of this opportunity we transform the business over the past several years to enable us to fully invest from a position of strength. This transformation allows us to deliver industry leading financial performance while continuing to invest for long-term growth and success. Our 2018 revenue guidance is $21.8 billion to $22.8 billion and our non-GAAP earnings per share guidance is $12.60 to $13.70 per share. Our non-GAAP tax rate guidance reflecting the impact of tax reform is 14% to 15% and we expect capital expenditures of approximately $750 million this year. There are several key assumptions embedded in our outlook that I would like to take a moment to share. First, our revenue guidance reflects both continued positive momentum from our newer products as well as evolving competitive dynamics related to our legacy products. We have important growth opportunities with the inclusion of outcomes data in Repatha’s label. Our plan to launch new products including Aimovig and AMGEVITA and the added flexibility enabled by tax reform to use our strong cash flow and balance sheet to drive continued growth of the company. We also embrace the potential challenges including the possible generic competition to Sensipar, continuing competitive dynamics for Enbrel and expected new competition against Neulasta and Aranesp. With regard to Sensipar, although the composition of matter patent expires in March, we are involved in litigation over pediatric exclusivity with the FDA and separately over the formulation patent with potential generic competitors. Although we believe in the strength of our position uncertainty as to the timing of competition will remain until the outcome of these litigations becomes clear. Also note that historically the first quarter represents the lowest product sales quarter for the year. For 2018, we expect this pattern to continue. Tony will provide further details related to this in this remarks. With respect to other revenue, for the full year 2018 we expect to see 15% year-over-year growth. The quarterly run rate will be impacted by an unfavorable true up of a royalty in Q1, offset by incremental milestones in the second half of the year. From an operating margin perspective since 2016 we have delivered on our commitment of a non-GAAP operating margin between 52% and 54%. And based on today’s guidance we expect to again operate in this range in 2018 as we continue to invest in our products to drive volume growth in large patient populations. Going forward, we will continue to evaluate incremental investments including acquisitions to drive growth and maximize shareholder value. The recently passed tax reform legislation provides significant financial flexibility in the form of a globally competitive tax rate and immediate access to the year end 2017 ex-U.S. cash balance of $39 billion. With regard to 2018 guidance, our non-GAAP tax rate is forecast between 14% and 15%. This incorporates a 21% tax rate on U.S. earnings and 10.5% tax rate on ex-U.S. earnings. With regard to capital deployment, our principles over the next several years are as follows. First, we will invest in our business as we continue to expand our pipeline and seek to drive long-term volume growth globally across large patient populations. We will also invest in greater manufacturing capacity to support the volume growth we foresee. For the first time in several decades, tax reform enables us to competitively consider investment in the U.S. As a result over the next 5 years we expect to invest approximately $3.5 billion in capital expenditures. Starting in 2018, approximately 75% of that investment will be in the U.S., up from about 50% in recent years. As Bob mentioned a key component of our U.S. capital investment strategy includes a new drug substance manufacturing plant which will be built using our next-generation bio-manufacturing capability. We expect to complete this expansion in about half the time of a conventional plant for approximately one-third of the cost. In addition to investing internally, we continued to pursue external opportunities to accelerate the growth of our business in our chosen therapeutic areas as well as accelerating our global build-out. Furthermore, we will invest an additional $300 million in our venture fund. Our venture fund is an important tool to ensuring we are appropriately informed, engaged and invested in cutting edge advances in science, technology and innovation. Since 2004, we have invested over $0.5 billion in our venture funds. In addition to their scientific importance, these investments have generated returns well above our cost of capital. Second, we will remain committed to an optimal capital structure in order to minimize or weighted average cost of capital by deploying any excess accumulative – accumulated capital and fully deploying cash flows going forward. As a first step to accomplishing this objective, we have received Board authorization to purchase up to $10 billion of our common stock. This is an addition to the previously approved share repurchase authorization which remained at $4.4 billion at the end of 2017. Given the scale of excess capital we have to deploy, our plan is to proceed with the Dutch auction equity tender offer, consistent with the approach we used successfully in 2011. This tender offer would be for up to $10 million and would commence as early as next week. Further, we may repurchase up to our full authority in the first half of 2018. The optimization of a capital structure will result in higher net interest expense in 2018 and beyond as we will have less interest income due to lower cash balances. For 2018 this results in expected other income and expense of $600 million to $700 million net expense. As we deploy our excess capital in the most efficient manner over the next several years, we could find that it is important prudent to pay some upcoming debt maturities in cash rather than refinancing in the market. This would translate directly into additional financial flexibility and debt capacity that we could choose to redeploy in the future. Third, we will continue to provide meaningful returns to shareholders through both the previously mentioned share repurchases as well as continued dividend growth. Finally, today’s revenue and non-GAAP EPS guidance ranges are wider than we typically have provided at the start of the year, which is primarily a reflection of the range of sense of our scenarios in addition to the other ongoing uncertainties outlined earlier. It is important to recognize that our guidance today does not include the impact of potential future M&A activities. In summary, we delivered another year of strong financial results in 2017 and we remain confident in the outlook for Amgen success in 2018 and beyond. This concludes the financial update. I will now turn the call over to Tony.