Susan Salka
Analyst · Randy Reece with Avondale Partners. Please go ahead
Maybe I’ll take that in pieces. The first is I’ve never seen a trend exactly like this. We’ve always had cycles and trends. They’re always a bit different. And this one certainly is different and the drivers of it are different as well. Again, the economy is certainly important, but the level of attrition and retirements that we’re seeing are at historical highs from what we’re told in as far back as we can analyze the data. You have, on top of that, of course, the aging population, which wasn’t as much of a factor maybe 15 years ago, but folks are starting to feel like it really is starting to matter. And then, you have healthcare reform. And so, it’s hard to look back and look at any particular period. What we have done is look at our order levels today because they are at historical highs. I mean considerably higher than what we’ve seen at any point in the past. And, yet, if you think about our traveler count, our traveler count in volumes are still well below our historical highs. If we go back to 2001, I think it was 2001 or 2002, we had, in our travel nurse business, about 8,200 clinicians working on a lower order base than we have today. Today, we have about 6,000. That would be sort of your comp on higher orders. And so, that tells me that we have a lot of runway left. In fact, orders could stop. In fact, I believe they could go down. Because we have so many jobs within the industry that are being unfilled today by us or anyone in the industry that we could actually see order levels drop a little bit and we could still grow based on if you look back to those prior periods. So, that gives me and I think the team confidence that we’re not at some peak and we’d see a decline. Quite honestly, we’re still coming up the mountain. Will there be a time, years down the road, when we see that peak? I suppose it’s possible. I can’t predict that. But what I can do is look at our trends, the data that we have, which would suggest we’re still coming up the mountain pretty strongly. We don’t see the peak in sight.