Greetings, and welcome to the Alpha Metallurgical Resources Third Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Emily O'Quinn, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. You may now begin.

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Before we get started, let me remind you that during our prepared remarks, our comments regarding anticipated business and financial performance contain forward-looking statements and actual results may differ materially from those discussed. For more information regarding forward-looking statements and some of the factors that can affect them, please refer to the Company's third quarter 2023 earnings release and the associated SEC filing. Please also see those documents for information about our use of non-GAAP measures and their reconciliation to GAAP measures. Participating on the call today are Alpha's Chief Executive Officer, Andy Eidson, and our President and Chief Operating Officer, Jason Whitehead. Also participating on the call are Todd Munsey, our Chief Financial Officer; and Dan Horn, our Chief Commercial Officer. With that, I'll turn the call over to Andy.

Thanks, Emily. And good morning everyone. Earlier today, we announced our third quarter 2023 results with adjusted EBITDA of $154 million. As we mentioned in our pre-release a few weeks ago, our Q3 results were impacted by some challenging events, including a mechanical failure at Dominion Terminal Associates. This call is the delay in vessel loading, which in turn delayed shipments and revenue. With some additional clarity into what we believe the balance of the year will hold as well as the understanding that there will be some tonnage that carries over into 2024. We tighten and lowered our shipment volume guidance for 2023. We're focused on finishing 2023 very strongly and I'm seeing evidence of this throughout the organization. Operationally across the company, our year-to-date performance against two important safety metrics TRIR and NFDL are both better than the national average. With the recent closure of Slabcamp, Alpha is a years long transition to a pure play metallurgical company is complete, and we just opened our newest metallurgical mine in October the Checkmate Powellton Mine at the well-known Elk Run complex. The Elk Run preparation plan and load-out are planned to come along early in 2024. Last week, we completed the refinance of our asset based revolving credit facility securing more favorable terms and a longer duration than the previous facility and has become standard. Our share buyback program continues executing, utilizing all of our free cash flow for the quarter. We have returned more than $940 million to stockholders in the form of buyback since the program's inception in March of 2022, with roughly $560 million left on the newly extended $1.5 billion Board authorization. Following the most recently declared dividend payout, which will occur in December the dividend program will cease and our capital return efforts will…

Thanks, Andy. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $154 million. Down from our second quarter levels $258 million dollars. We sold 4.2 million tonnes in the quarter $4.1 million of which came from our met segment and 100,000 tonnes from the all other category. Quarter-over-quarter realizations decreased for the Met segment with an average realization of $154.73 in Q3, compared to $172.51 for the second quarter. Export Met tonnes priced against Atlantic indices and other pricing mechanisms in the third quarter realized $136.76 per ton, while export coal priced on Australian indices realized $158.56. These are compared to last quarters realizations of $175.69 per ton and $159.62 respectively, which reflected a stronger coal pricing environment. Realization for our metallurgical sales and third quarter was a total weighted average of $116.43 per ton down from $176.04 per ton in the prior quarter. Realizations in the incidental thermal portion of the Met segment decreased to $92.22 per ton in Q3 as compared to $115.50 per ton in Q2 due to the lower market pricing for thermal coal. And the all other category realizations were also down as a result of the declining pricing environment for thermal coal coming in at $68.32 for the third quarter, as compared to $99.66 per ton in the second quarter. Third quarter cost of coal sales for our Met segment increased to $109.95 per ton, up from $106.35 per ton in the second quarter. Cost of coal sales in the all other category decreased quarter-over-quarter to $84.73 per ton as compared to $88.59 per ton in the second quarter 2023. SG&A excluding non-cash stock compensation and non-recurring items increased to $15.1 million in the third quarter as compared to $14 million in the second quarter. Q3 CapEx was $54.7 million roughly flat against the second quarter level of…

Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everyone. As we've spoken about in previous calls, our last remaining thermal coal mine Slabcamp has mined out and idled, which completed our transition to a pure play metallurgical coal company. Much of the workforce at Slabcamp transition to our new rolling Thunder mine which provided a seamless transition for the workforce, and that mine is now fully staffed. Additionally, in late October, we celebrated the first development cuts at Checkmate Powelton, our newest mine. Checkmate is located in Boone County, West Virginia, and produces auto coal within our Midwest Virginia underground region. We're looking-forward to getting this mine up to a full run rate and completing enhancements on the Elk Run preparation plant, which is currently undergoing renovations, and will come online to service this month, likely near the end of the year or early in January of 2024. As we look ahead to 2024 with the issue of guidance today, you'll see that anticipated coal to coal sales come in between $110 to $116 per ton, which reflects the recently implemented investments we made an employee wages and benefits as well as some lingering inflationary pressure in supplies or maintenance. We've discussed most of these areas on prior calls. And while we're no longer seeing such significant spikes in material costs, like we did in the last 18 months or so, we are still experiencing some inflation as contracts renew and with superior supplies for the coming year on materials and services, such as repairs, roof support, and mining supplies. Despite the tight labor market challenging our ability to achieve planned level volumes we have continued to perform at or above planned levels of clean tons per labor hour and our operations. We have budgeted to maintain the higher levels of investment in our…

Thanks, Jason. Good morning everyone in recent months have brought about continued economic pressures in many areas of the world, as well as intensified geopolitical conflicts, all of which influence metallurgical coal markets. Continuing effects of the Russian war, recessionary pressures and high interest environments have resulted in muted world manufacturing output, new orders and employment levels. And in the case of Europe, specifically, worsening conditions for regions already stalled in a significant downturn. The uncertainty around the depth of China's economic challenges and the escalating conflict and violence in the Middle East are additional challenges affecting the stability of the global economic landscape. Despite these factors metallurgical coal indices have strengthened in recent months amid tight supply conditions globally, and the expectation of slow but increasing steel demand. For the world steel associations latest short range outlook, 2024 steel demand is expected to rise by roughly 2% over 2023, levels, with developing economies projected to increase growth at a faster pace than advanced economies, especially developed nations hindered by high interest rates and geopolitical impacts. After a slight softening of metallurgical Coal indices in the early part of the third quarter 2023. Each of the four indices offered closely monitors began moving upward in mid-August, and it continued to show strength through the rest of the quarter and through October. The Australian Premium Low Volatile Index jumped from $233 per metric ton at the start of the quarter to $333 per ton, on September 30. The U.S East Coast Low Volatile Index increased from $227 per metric ton at the beginning of July to $258 per metric ton at the end of the quarter. The U.S East Coast High Volatile Index moved up from $216 per metric ton at the start of the third quarter to $288 per metric…

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, thank you so much, operator. Good morning everyone. And for different time I want to ask you how you came up with the name checkmate, but to turn to more serious questions to start, can you tell us a little bit maybe Dan is best for you. What drives the split between Australian links and other pricing mechanisms? Is that kind of determined at this time as you commit tons for next year? Or is that something that evolves over the course of a year and to what extent? And as your outlook for 2024 shapes up, where would you expect that split to be? Thank you.

Good morning, Lucas. Yes, I think the short answer your question is the demand will drive it as well as the price will follow the best we'll look for the best economic opportunities for Alpha. But we have a lot of demand for long term customers in Asia, South Asia and East Asian markets that are linked to the BLV and will continue to pursue those opportunities. And as you know, that's where a lot of the metallurgical coal demand is and is expected to be in the future. So it's pretty obvious why we're there and where we expect te growth.

Got it. So as it relates to 2024, sure. So that split off Australian linked indices go up relative to this year?

Yes, at the moment, that's tough to say. But if you if you're this remains a little bit slower, then it's probably likely that what's roughly a third, a third, a third. It, I suppose it's reasonable to think that the Aussie link price percentage would increase.

That's very helpful. Thank you. Thank you, Dan, for that color. And Dan maybe to stay with you for another question. Couple crosscurrents in the market. Today, you comment on that in your prepared remarks. But if you look at your crystal ball for met coal pricing and the level of interest, you're seeing, what you see as some of the biggest puts and takes into year end? Thank you.

Look, supply remains tight for a variety of reasons the you see vessels, use in Australia starting to grow slightly, you see some the U.S growing, so that'll probably keep the supply side a little tight. Demand in Asia is good, particularly in India, we still see new opportunities there. And from the -- speak to the Alpha perspective, we're still shipping our contract business into Q4 at high levels. And as we mentioned, we had a strong October at DTA. We're seeing good demand and good shipping levels.

Very helpful. Thank you, Dan. And then my final question on the CapEx and DTA, side. So first on DTA. The simplest way to kind of think about it, correct me if I'm wrong, is $150 million in capital spent split over six years that $150 million? That's really, what's incremental? That's question one. And then question two, in terms of the capital guidance for 2024, the $210 million to $240 million, should we think of that amount as a reasonable baseline going forward? Or is it maybe a little bit more lumpy capital in there as well? Thank you very much.

Hey, Luke, is it Andy. I'll ask or I'll answer your second question first, as far as capital. Unless we see some significant changes in the cost of materials, I think our $10 per ton on sustaining will probably stay in that zip code. So, 170 to 180ish, for that portion over the next in the near term, the question on any additional development capital, so we're going to have the first half roughly the first half of Kingston in ‘24, the back half will be in ‘25. So the next couple of years probably looks relatively similar to this year, plus or minus the inclusion of any carryover capital is not spam. But, if you're looking at it in the totality of two or three-year view. Yes, it's probably going to be in the zip code, at least until we get through the development project there. Getting back to DTA. Yes, I think your message is correct. And again, let me be clear, DTA has not approved this budget yet for 2024. So there's still some movement that could happen there. This is kind of what Alphas estimate of what's going on what will need to be spent in in concert with the DTA leadership and what they have, the engineering they've been working through. So I think quantum wise is definitely that zip code, but we'll have to as we get further into the process, we'll see more specifically and precision is not what we're going for. But I think accuracy is probably in line with that.

Thank you, Andy. And for the avoidance of doubt that $150 million would be kind of separate from the capital needs that you just discussed.

That's right.

In addition to rather.

Yes, it's quote, unquote, CapEx, but because it goes through our equity, earnings and JV, it's a separate line out. And so we try to keep gardens and actual reported numbers on a similar basis. So we don't confuse buckets.

Perfect. And that guidance of $40 to $50 million for capital contribution to affiliates. That just really includes the OpEx that you pay year in year out as you ship through the terminal, right?

That's correct. And that's just been that's a standard thing that's been in the numbers, since we've been in DTA. It's always a challenge trying to get that presented in a way that makes it more apparent to the public. But I think we've, we've got a pretty good handle on it now as far as how we're disclosing it.

Very clear. I really appreciate all the color and Andy to you and team. Best of luck.

Thank you, Lucas.

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Nathan Martin with Benchmark Company. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks, operator. Good morning, guys. And thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just one more on DTA. The money you guys are going be spending over the next several years. Is that mainly just to refurbish? Or is there also an opportunity there to kind of improve operations or throughput capacity?

Yes. How's that for an answer Nate? So you start with a nameplate capacity, while we're talking about wouldn't necessarily increase true capacity, but thinking of it more from capacity that's been lost by the various mechanical interruptions and issues over the past couple of years. That's how we're thinking of it. Because it's simply not, it's not able to run at its at its potential right now. So the money spent, while it's not expanding, nameplate capacity, I think it will allow us to recover some capacity that has been lost over the past couple of years, just because of the different issues that have come on.

Can you put numbers around that, Andy? Like remind me what nameplate is, and maybe kind of where you are today then?

Well, I hate to I can't throw numbers at it again, because we don't have the plans completely nailed down. We do have several processes we have to work through on how we're exactly approaching it. And also, it varies depending on how stockpiles are utilized, whether you're just pushing coal out straight out of rail cars into a boat, whether you're, any whether you got any kind of deviation between med or thermal coal. So there are a lot of variables go into play as to what the true throughput capacity could be. But suffice it to say, getting all the pieces refurb and repaired will make it run much more effectively and efficiently than it currently is.

Got it. Okay, that's fair. And maybe just one other question on the near term. I think Andy, you mentioned in your prepared remarks. The expectation of carryover, some funds into 2024. So, how should we think about fourth quarter med coal shipments, maybe at least directionally from the third quarter? Or maybe another way to look at it? What kind of gets you guys to the high end or the low end for your guidance?

Doggone it, Nate. You hit me with this question at least every other quarter and always struggle to answer it because we hate to deal with the unknown we just saw a quarter where we ran into some issues that didn't allow us to hit our potential. Right now we're off to a really good start for the fourth quarter. I think I'll probably just have to guide you to look at our year to date numbers and take that off of where we landed on guidance, our revised guidance number. I think we have a pretty high confidence level in kind of hitting down the fairway you have that delta for the fourth quarter.

Okay, got it. So I mean, kind of down the midpoint, we'll get you maybe roughly flattish quarter-over-quarter, if that's if my math is close. So, right. Maybe then just shifting to ‘24 guidance. Starting again on the shipment side of things $16 million tons in the midpoint. I think that's up about $0.5 million tons versus your original ‘23 guidance, you talked about another mine coming online, right now, maybe that's driving a little bit of that, maybe improved logistics. Are you guys comfortable maintaining that roughly $16 million ton level of sales kind of looking farther out in the market demand remain supportive. And then are you having any success entering some new markets are sending initial cargoes to new customers at this point?

Yes, I'll defer to Dan on the second part of that Nat. But on the first part, yes, I think we're pretty comfortable. And again, this will vacillate this, we're not locked into $60 million tons or $50 million tons or $70 million tons, it'll move as the portfolio develops over time. But I think we're pretty comfortable in this area, that we're in plus or minus $0.5 million tons, either any direction for the, for the time being. Second part, Dan?

Yes, sure. And Nat, I'll just add that yes, that, the increase is do we have two relatively new coal mines effectively, we have the rolling Thunder Mine, which started earlier this year. And now, the Checkmate, so we've added High Vol met production, and we've eliminated the now we don't produce the Slabcamp thermal. So some of that is just a switch from thermal to med. And yeah, we're comfortable that this this coal fine markets, primarily the new markets would be in Europe, we're still delivering trial shipments to several new customers in Asia, and expect to do more in 2024.

That's great. And so, Dan, appreciate that. And maybe with those two new mines, could you talk about what your quality mix might look like? If it differs much from the chart, I think you guys usually have in your deck?

Just broadly speaking, is just feel a little more high vol, I guess we have to call it an A or B, it's probably more on the high vol B side. So maybe increasing the high vol piece of that pie a little bit.

Yes. And I think as Nat as a percentage, if you're looking at the pie chart that we have in our investor deck, when it's time to get it squared away for ‘23ish numbers, I don't think it's going to look very different than to Dan's point, and may flex up one or 1% or 2%, until high vol. But it's going to look really similar. With no, I don't think there'll be any kind of material changes until we do get closer to ‘25 when Kingston brings more low vol into the mix.

Got it. Perfect guys. And then one more if I could, going back to ‘24 guidance, and specifically for the met segment cost per tonne guidance. I think the implication there is up about $2.50 year-over-year just using guidance midpoints. Different color and prepared remarks there, I think some of its labor with your new agreements you put in place in August, anything else kind of driving that uptick? And then maybe what net prices are you guys assuming for that $110, $116 range? Thanks.

I'll do the second part first, now let Jason give his thoughts on cost movements. As usual, and we go through the budget, we like to inform, what we plug in for costs is, usually a kind of an amalgam of what the market research folks show for the 2024. And we like to -- we also kind of outside again, where the futures are, this year, there's a pretty sizable disconnect between where those are, at least with the front half of the season, the back half of the year. So we kind of had to use a little bit of judgment there. But we do tend a bit more towards the conservative when we set up our budget, so I would say we're closer to the market research folks' numbers then the futures as far as for utilization for budget purposes. But, Jason, if you got some more thoughts on cost.

At the monocytes you I think you said you understood the labor and that's just a function of shoring up our ability to make the volume. As we mentioned, we've been productive with the labor we have, but it's just about loading the mines up and producing at $16 million tonnes. But on the other side, I mean, we're still in the middle of contract negotiations with various vendors. Some are complete, some are ongoing and there's still a few to top by the end of the year. So I think the escalators that were used in the budget year-over-years just kind of a weighted average of all those materials prices.

Great appreciate all the color and the time guys. Best of luck in the fourth quarter.

Thank you our next question is from Lucas pipes with the Riley Security. Please proceed with your question. Lucas, you're live with our speakers. Lucas, are you muted?

Sorry about that, I was muted. Thank you very much, operator, thank you for taking my follow up question. So my first one is on the transportation side, I think there's typically like a one quarter lag in terms of price adjustment, or rather cost adjustments to the transportation costs with the index. So I wondered if you could speak to that for Q4. And then more broadly with where prices are today? Where would you expect transportation costs to be? Any other considerations to take into account for 2024, be it inflationary pressures et cetera? Thank you.

Well, Lucas, you're correct on what you said about there's a component that the transportation rates do largely move for the seaborne shipments, they move with the indices, so and they do have a lag. So that's right. So as the market moves up, behind it, our real costs move up. Going forward, we're still in negotiations for next year's rail, or with our rail provider. So I really don't want to comment any more about next year at this time.

Got it. So maybe a little bit of a benefit Q4. And then with the stronger pricing today that would then lead to higher transportation costs early 2024. And then the broader discussion, we'll just have to stay tuned?

Yes, that's directionally correct, Lucas. Yes.

Okay, thank you for that. And then a follow up to the volume discussion. For 2025, should we expect higher volumes with the new mines coming online?

Well, Lucas, how about we, we table that question until this time next year, and I'll have a budget to talk to you. If I start trying to opine on that, and Todd's will smack me. So we'll just because we do we've got we've got depletion of other mines, we got other actions we need to take into consideration. So I'd hate to give guidance to anything, when it's premature.

Got it. Okay. Well, I appreciate it. I will probably try asking it again before this time next year, but I appreciate it and again, best of luck.

We have reached the end of the question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Andy Eidson for closing remarks.

Well, thanks again for joining us today and for your interest in Alpha and we hope you have a great rest of the day rest of the week and everyone please take care.

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.