Earnings Labs

American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC)

Q4 2009 Earnings Call· Thu, May 13, 2010

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to American Superconductor's fourth quarter conference call. This call is being recorded. All participants will be in a listen-only mode until we reach the question-and-answer session. With us on the call this morning are American Superconductor's Founder and CEO, Greg Yurek; Senior Vice President and CFO, David Henry; and Investor Relations Director, Jason Fredette. For opening remarks, I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jason Fredette.

Jason Fredette

Management

Thank you, and welcome to the call everyone. Before we being, please note that various remarks management may make on this conference call about American Superconductor's future expectations, plans and prospects constitute forward-looking statements for the proposes of the Safe Harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors including those discussed in the ‘Risk Factors’ section of the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2009, and subsequent reports filed with the SEC. These forward-looking statements represent the company's expectations only as of today and should not be relied upon as representing the company's views as of any subsequent date. While American Superconductor anticipates that subsequent events and developments may cause the company's views to change, the company specifically disclaims any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. I also would like to note that we will be referring on today's call to non-GAAP net income or net income before amortization of acquisition related intangibles, restructuring and impairments, stock-based compensation, revaluation of stock warrants, other unusual charges and any tax effects related to those items. Non-GAAP net income is a non-GAAP financial metric. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP net income can be found in the press release we issued and filed with the SEC this morning on Form 8-K. All of our SEC filings can be accessed from the investors’ page of our website at www.amsc.com. Finally, I would like to mention that we will be taking part in the Barclays Capital Global Warming Solutions and Clean Technology conference in New York next week on May 20th. We also will be hosting a meeting for financial analysts and portfolio managers at the American Wind Energy Association’s Wind Power 2010 Conference and Exhibition in Dallas, Texas on the morning of Tuesday, May 25, 2010. We will provide a live and archived webcast from that event that can be accessed on our website. More details on that will be published next week. Now, I will turn the call over to Greg.

Greg Yurek

CEO

Thanks, Jason, and good morning everyone. It is a pleasure to be reporting back to you on another record quarter and fiscal year here at American Superconductor. First and foremost we achieved our first full-year of profitability. This is a major turning point for our company and we are now very solidly on a path of profitable growth and net positive cash flows. We got here by laying a strong foundation of technology, patents, products, engineering excellence and of course top notch operational execution. As a result, in fiscal 2009 we strengthened what already was a strong balance sheet and finished the fiscal year with $155 million in cash and no debt. We expect to continue generating significant cash from operations in fiscal 2010 and we expect to plow a large portion of this operating cash flow back into the business to accelerate our future growth and profits. Even with these investments we expect to be net cash flow positive for the full-year. We expect fiscal 2010 to be another record year for our company in terms of top line growth with revenues increasing by more than 30% to a range of $415 million to $425 million. Even better, we expect our GAAP earnings to be more than double year-over-year to a range of $37.5-40 million or $0.80 to $0.85 per diluted share and we expect to increase our non-GAAP earnings by at least 70% to a range of $54-56.5 million or $1.15 to $1.20 per diluted share. This rate of earnings growth is based on productivity gains we generated in fiscal 2009 and that we expect to continue improving upon going forward. To be specific, while we expect to grow our global work force from 714 employees as of March 31, 2010 to more than 1,000 by the end…

David Henry

CFO

Thanks Greg and good morning everyone. We were quite pleased with the financial results we reported for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2009. We increased revenues throughout the year and delivered our 13th consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth in Q4. We also made solid improvements in our gross and operating margins throughout the year, delivered our first full year of profitability and increased our balance of cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash by about $38 million from a year ago. AMSC generated revenue of $87.6 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009, a 9% increase from $80.7 million in Q3 and a 43% increase from $61.2 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. Higher wind turbine component shipments were the main factor in our sequential and year-over-year growth. ASMC power systems represented 97% of total Q4 revenues at $84.8 million. This was up approximately 46% from $58.2 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. Our AMSC superconductor segment generated the remaining 3% of revenues. AMSC superconductor revenue in the fourth quarter was $2.9 million, which compares with $3 million in the year-ago quarter. Sales to Sinovel represented 74% of total revenues in the quarter. Gross profit for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 was $33.1 million translating into a gross margin of 37.8%. This compares with a gross margin of 37.5% in the third quarter of fiscal 2009 and 32.6% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. Improved product mix and a strengthening dollar as compared to the Euro were the primary drivers in the sequential gross margin improvement. As a reminder, unlike many companies in the renewable energy industry, the current weakening of the Euro against both the RMB and dollar has a beneficial effect on our gross margin and profitability…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Paul Clegg – Jefferies & Company. Paul Clegg – Jefferies & Company : On the guidance, directionally how do you expect gross margins to trend in fiscal 2010? Is there any scaling benefit we are going to see next year?

David Henry

CFO

From a competitive standpoint we are not providing specific gross margin guidance for fiscal 2010. We have in the past discussed several operational initiatives that are in the pipeline that we can expect can influence and improve gross margins going forward but, as of right now we are declining to give any gross margin guidance for fiscal 2010.

Greg Yurek

CEO

That is for obvious competitive reasons.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of John Hardy – Broadpoint AmTech. John Hardy – Broadpoint AmTech: I was wondering if you could give us an update on timing of HTS break-even. Obviously you pulled in your target at the end of last year and it seems like things have been pretty constructive with LS since that point so any update there would be greatly appreciated.

Greg Yurek

CEO

The most we are going to say about that is consistent with what we have said in the past. When we get to shipments of 3-4 million meters of our wire out of the shop that represents a GAAP P&L break-even for that business. However, don’t forget what we expect our of superconductors is a mix of products. Sometimes we will be shipping wires but sometimes the revenue is going to come from large scale projects as we have done in the past. That mix could help to bring that in closer of course.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Vishal Shah – Barclays Capital. Vishal Shah – Barclays Capital: What percentage of your business or revenues in 2010 will be to Sinovel and how is the traction at some of the other customers looking? Can you maybe quantify the growth there?

Greg Yurek

CEO

Let me comment on the traction and Dave can comment on the percentage of business. Traction is looking good. As you know, in the fourth quarter we had significant orders from Shenyang Blower Works, XJ and smaller ones from other companies. We have repeat orders from CSR-ZELRI and Hyundai over the last couple of months. So the traction is really starting to pick up there. We expect, as I said, by the end of this fiscal year all of our licensees will be in volume production mode.

David Henry

CFO

As we have in the past we don’t really give forward-looking information on a customer basis or a product basis by that matter. I will just reiterate Sinovel was 74% of revenues in the quarter and 70% of revenues for the full-year.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Theodore O’Neil – Wunderlich Securities. Theodore O’Neil – Wunderlich Securities : I was wondering on the solar business if you could detail a little bit more for us about what you will be making to sell into that market versus what you would be willing to source from others. If you could talk about what the revenue per megawatt per solar farm, sort of metric might be for that business?

Greg Yurek

CEO

There are a number of versions of the offering we have. The version 1.0 if you want to call it that is basically our D-VAR with a change in software to meet the reactive compensation needs of solar power plants that are going in now in North America. China is going to be huge in that area as well. Version 2.0 is basically what we talked about at our Analyst Day back in November of 2009 and that is still the DC to AC conversion but in fact also reactive compensation built in. So it is kind of basically an inverter with D-VAR inside so to speak. As we go forward from that version 3.0 we are looking at collecting at solar panels or groups of solar panels with inverters and sending DC to our version 2.0 inverter reactive compensation device. Basically what we are providing is what we have done in the wind industry and that is grid interconnections but now it is going to be in addition for solar power plants starting with PD but it will also include solar thermal as we go forward.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Ben Kallo – Robert W. Baird. Ben Kallo – Robert W. Baird: So we read a lot about the overcapacity in turbine production in China. I know you have said in the past you haven’t seen this in your customers but can you just kind of walk us through the steps you take to ensure that is not happening with your customers and how you check up on them?

Greg Yurek

CEO

We are in constant contact with our customers in China. We have account managers that are in direct contact and all the usual things. Some of us, myself included, go and meet with these customers of course in China. So we have very direct communications on virtually a daily basis by a variety of means. We are very clear. Our customers are not slowing down. Of course consolidation is going on in China. It is being forced by the central government. No question about that. We expect our customers are going to be the beneficiaries of that because they are going to acquire others or they are going to get a bigger market share. So as you look at AMSC and its customers in China in fiscal 2010 look for us to grab a larger market share in China. I think that is exactly what is happening and I think you are going to see that in the orders flow as we go through the next weeks and months.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Ben Schuman – Pacific Crest Securities. Ben Schuman – Pacific Crest Securities: Can you give an approximate breakout between HTS and Power Systems in terms of the CapEx guidance and talk about where you might expect to exit the year in terms of HTS production capacity?

David Henry

CFO

Once again from a competitive standpoint we are going to decline to talk about some of the specifics on how much we are going to spend on CapEx and superconductors. I can tell you though for most of the spending of the $40-50 million is outside of superconductors. A lot of that investment is coming in form of investment for, as Greg mentioned, our ERP systems and improving our infrastructure around the world. We need to upgrade our facilities. As we continue to add people we need to have space for these people which requires us to make investments in that regard. We talked about the fact we are going to put up a couple of wind turbines; one in Austria and one in Wisconsin in order to do new product qualifications and to provide a platform to test out our latest generation power electronics that we will be providing to our customers. I can tell you the majority of the CapEx investment is going to be coming in those areas and not necessarily in superconductors but we will make some investments in superconductors as we scale up as we have discussed in the past, the need to get ready for the demand that is coming and so we need to make that investment towards the 100 mm production which we are going to start that process in fiscal 2010.

Greg Yurek

CEO

David said everything absolutely correctly but I just want to be clear the amount we invest in CapEx in superconductors this fiscal year will be substantial.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Stewart Bush – RBC Capital Markets. Stewart Bush – RBC Capital Markets : A year ago you had $190 million in backlog. So you booked and shipped $125 million in the year. My question is why is your guidance, why should we not consider that awfully conservative if you have 90% already in backlog and you see a positive outlook should we not expect you to be booking and shipping more during the year?

Greg Yurek

CEO

This is our first guidance for the year and we have been given all factors that our guidance is reasonable and we will just leave it at that.

David Henry

CFO

One other thing, if you go back when we gave our guidance last year we had around $190 million of backlog at the time and we were guiding to $225 million roughly of revenue. At that time, subsequent to all of that, several months after that, Sinovel pulled in their demand on us and that was something we didn’t know about at the time. When you look at our fill requirement this year in dollar terms compared to our fill requirement last year in dollar terms it is roughly the same. A lot of our fill is going to come in the first six months of the year and not necessarily in the last six months of the year. We think our guidance we have put out is consistent with our ability to fill in our backlog as we have in the past.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Carter Shoop – Deutsche Bank. Carter Shoop – Deutsche Bank: Can you clarify what your ERP spend will be? The P&L impact on the ERP spend for the upcoming year. Then my question has to do with the opportunity in China with smart grid related sales. What kind of range can investors think about for the coming fiscal year for smart grid related sales in China?

David Henry

CFO

I will let Greg address the second and I will take your first question which is on the ERP. ERP is really not going to be completed until towards the end of fiscal 2010 so from a depreciation standpoint you are not going to really see a P&L hit from it at all.

Greg Yurek

CEO

In terms of Smart Grid build out in the Asia Pacific region I talked a lot in my remarks about Korea and China. So we are very bullish about the growth opportunities in that region; no question about it. We got our tail in the door with both D-VAR and superconductor cables and we are not going to break it out though for you. We don’t do that. We are very bullish on the growth opportunity in that region and a lot of evidence that we went through here that supports the reasons for being bullish.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of JinMing Liu – Ardour Capital. JinMing Liu – Ardour Capital : My question is related to the Chinese government regulation regarding the wind turbine industry. Recently I noticed that the government there released a draft proposal asking for comments. One thing that caught my eye in there is they may require all the turbine manufacturers to have the ability to sell design and produce at least 2.5 megawatt turbine. If that does become the actual regulation what kind of challenges and opportunities you will have?

Greg Yurek

CEO

I think it is all on the opportunity side. As you are already seeing, for example, Sinovel and Dongfong, Sinovel started with the 1.5 megawatt and they are now in production of a 3 megawatt and are expected to begin production of the 5 megawatt in 2011. Same thing with Dongfong Steam Turbine Works. They first licensed from us a 2.5 megawatt and then recently last quarter we announced they have now licensed a 5 megawatt turbine design from us. What I would suggest you look for as we go through this year is that our customers not just the Chinese but other customers around the world as well are going to upgrade to higher power ratings through the year.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri – Citi. Timothy Arcuri – Citi: Can I get operating margin by segment; power systems and then the absolute dollars for the superconductor segment?

David Henry

CFO

The operating margin for power systems was 26% in the quarter. Operating loss for superconductors was $7.3 million.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Pavel Molchanov – Raymond James. Pavel Molchanov – Raymond James: Last year Chinese wind installations beat expectations by about 3 gigs or 30%. What are you hearing from your government sources about what the pace of installations might be this year?

Greg Yurek

CEO

We think taking all the data into account it is going to be flat to up in calendar 2010. I don’t see any slow down there is the sort of takeaway as well.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Carter Driscoll – Capstone Investments. Carter Driscoll – Capstone Investments: I was hoping you could address the off-shore wind opportunity and maybe a little bit more about geography. Obviously big opportunity in China but maybe address the U.S. and Europe and the different stages they are in.

Greg Yurek

CEO

Sure. In January the U.K. permitted an additional 32 gigawatts of offshore wind and so there is a bit of a gold rush going on in the U.K. as we speak. The supply chains are being lined up. Turbine manufacturers are being lined up and obviously that would increase some of our licensees who would like to of course sell off-shore wind turbines in the U.K. The U.S. is the U.S. Maybe it will happen someday but we are not counting on it. Our focus remains on Asia, number one. Number two, number three would be the U.K. for the off-shore. Chinese have been hinting at this for awhile but in the last couple of months they are now talking about 750 gigawatts off-shore and already going forward with plans on the first 1 gigawatt off-shore wind farms. I know it sounds humongous in terms of the numbers here but just go back and look at China on on-shore wind and even individual wind turbine manufacturers that weren’t even in the business in 2005. I firmly believe China is going to take off like a rocket here and we are going to participate very directly in this huge off-shore market in the U.K. By the way, back to the Raymond James analyst question I said we expect flat to some growth in China. Don’t forget what I said earlier as well which is we expect to grab more market share within that end market. That is an important part. We see growth for our company and our customers in fiscal 2010.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Paul Clegg – Jefferies & Company. Paul Clegg – Jefferies & Company : A detailed question about Hyundai. Hyundai last year or I think it was closer to a year ago, signed an agreement to provide I think 100 turbines to a wind farm in Korea. I think it would have been the largest wind farm in Korea that was a partnership with [inaudible]. I don’t remember seeing any order that would correspond to anything that size on your side. Do you know whether or not that project is moving forward and if so are the turbines they are using Windtec designs?

Greg Yurek

CEO

I am not sure what that 100 wind turbine order is all about. Hyundai is spreading out. They are shipping product to Pakistan. They are putting turbines in Korea. They are shipping to the U.S. now. I am not sure where you got your information. Maybe we could talk later on offline and take a look at that more carefully.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Theodore O’Neil – Wunderlich Securities. Theodore O’Neil – Wunderlich Securities : You are killing me with this one question at a time business. At the risk of boring everyone to tears could you give us a little more detail on how you got to the 50% something tax rate for the quarter?

David Henry

CFO

I am going to assume you don’t mean the calculation of it. I am sure you know that. The reasons for the increase in the effective tax rate there are two reasons. First off, the fact the majority of our profits are coming from foreign jurisdictions and so those profits are taxed. As you know, in the U.S. where we have losses we don’t take any benefit. So during the quarter we had the combination of both our overall profit was the result of higher off-shore income combined with higher losses in the U.S. So that had a negative effect on our effective tax rate quarter-over-quarter. As we look through to fiscal 2010 we are expecting U.S. losses to remain relatively stable. As we are guiding towards higher profits those profits would be taxed at a 25% rate. So by the algebra as you are bringing on taxes at the 25% rate going forward your effective tax rate will go down year-over-year. Hopefully I have answered your question.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Ben Schuman – Pacific Crest Securities. Ben Schuman – Pacific Crest Securities: Can you give a little more color on the headcount ramp in terms of which geographies you are going to be investing in and whether we can think of maybe the OpEx per employee ramping at consistent or slower rate than headcount itself?

David Henry

CFO

We have mentioned we expect our headcount to grow to more than 1,000. In terms of the geography though it is going to come where our R&D efforts are occurring. A lot of those efforts are occurring in Austria. A lot of those efforts occur in Wisconsin. We also need to increase our manufacturing operations in China. That is where the growth is going to occur. In terms of one versus the other we are not going to comment on that but it will occur in all three areas. Greg did throw out some sort of earnings per employee. On a GAAP basis we expect that to increase year-over-year. I also mentioned in my remarks we expect our operating expenses as a percentage of revenue to continue to decline but decline slightly in fiscal 2010 compared to fiscal 2009. Beyond that, I am not going to give much more than that but hopefully I am giving you enough.

Greg Yurek

CEO

It is all going to support 70% growth in the non-GAAP earnings in fiscal 2010 and also put the foundation in for further growth in the next fiscal year. That is all pretty obvious but worth stating again I believe.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri – Citi. Timothy Arcuri – Citi: A question on China wind. On the 10th of May here they had pretty formalized targets now for roughly 100 gigawatts by 2020. If you look at the installs at the end of this year you are going to be maybe 40-45 assuming you do maybe 12-15 this year off of the 13 last year. So if you do the math on that it implies a pretty significant slow down on the run rate of installations to sort of get to that goal. How do you sort of handicap that? Is that not the right number? Is it going to be increased? How do you think about that?

Greg Yurek

CEO

I think clearly the Chinese government has continued to play the game of low balling the number and then beating the heck out of it. So it was just a couple of years ago they had 20-30 gigawatts as the target for 2020 that we are now at 24-25 gigawatts in China already at the end of 2009. I think they are going to continue to play this game. If you look at some industry reports out there they have it at 200 gigawatts in 2020. I think that is closer to what the expectation should be. I believe year-over-year you are going to see that ramping up and ramping up. By the way now that they are taking off with the off-shore, they have debated that and discussed it. We have been part of those discussions over the last couple of years. That is going to be I think clearly blow away 100 gigawatts by the time we get to 2020.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Theodore O’Neil – Wunderlich Securities. Theodore O’Neil – Wunderlich Securities : I think you mentioned you might have a licensee for the Sea Titan by the end of the year. I was wondering what sort of revenue opportunity that would present?

Greg Yurek

CEO

Well we are expecting more specifically to grab our first licensee for both superconductor generators and also secondly for the superconductor Sea Titan wind turbine. Those will typically be run very similar to the Windtec model in which case we would be looking for an up-front license fee, some development costs of course and then royalties going down the road as well as of course selling the core components that go into them. Having said all of that there might be a tiny bit of revenue that might be recognized from up-front license fees. We will have to wait and see how that develops. I wouldn’t look for much in this fiscal year. I think the big impact obviously comes from fiscal 2011 from the superconductor generators and Sea Titan.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Ben Kallo – Robert W. Baird. Ben Kallo – Robert W. Baird: To follow-up on the Sea Titan. You said you are going to have a licensee this year hopefully. Are you looking to diversify outside of Sinovel since it should be a product you could basically pick your partner there?

Greg Yurek

CEO

Yes. None of this will be exclusive by the way for the generator or for the Sea Titan wind turbine itself. We expect multiple licensees for each of those. Some will only manufacture the generator and supply it to those who are only making the Sea Titan wind turbine. We also think there are a couple there that could be vertically integrated due to generator and the Sea Titan wind turbine as well. So not exclusive is the key here. Look for multiples as we go forward beyond this year.

Operator

Operator

At this time I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Greg Yurek for any closing or additional comments.

Greg Yurek

CEO

Thank you. Thanks for participating on the call today. This was our first full-year of profitable growth. We are proud of it and we are going to continue to drive forward very hard to drive our earnings up as we have described here today. Thanks for your participation.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude today’s conference. Thank you for your participation.