Earnings Labs

AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 24, 2017

$31.71

+3.16%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-1.45%

1 Week

-0.91%

1 Month

-3.04%

vs S&P

-2.44%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the AMERISAFE 2016 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Vincent Gagliano, Chief Risk Officer. Please go ahead.

Vincent Gagliano

Analyst

Good morning. Welcome to the AMERISAFE 2016 fourth quarter and year-end investor call. If you have not received the earnings release, it is available on our website at www.amerisafe.com. This call is being recorded. A replay of today’s call will be available. Details on how to access the replay are in the earnings release. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from the results expressed or implied in these statements if the underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect or is the result of risks, uncertainties and other factors including factors discussed in today’s earnings release, in the comments made during this call and in the risk factors section of our Form 10-K, Form 10-Qs and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement. I will now turn the call over to Janelle Frost, AMERISAFE’s President and CEO.

Janelle Frost

Analyst

Thank you, Vincent, and good morning everyone. On today’s call, I will start with a few comments regarding the workers’ compensation market followed by some of AMERISAFE’s operational metrics. Then Neal Fuller, our CFO, will conclude with the financial results before Q&A. Let me begin with the workers’ compensation market, over the last few quarters, I have described the market as increasingly competitive. The latest state approval of cost reflect declines with few exceptions across the country. According to Nationwide Agent surveys, 85% of agent respondents saw no change or rate decreases in their books of business. Both of these reference points are consistent with last quarter. We continue to experience pressure from multi-line carriers willing to once again write workers compensation. This mostly affects AMERISAFE on large accounts, those accounts with annual premium in excess of $250,000. However, we have not seen new capital nor new entrants coming into the marketplace. In addition, interest rate increases have been slight, but certainly not sufficient to divert underwriters from underwriting profit. All that said, my outlook for the market has not changed. We saw increased competition in the fourth quarter and it is my expectation that that will continue in 2017. To combat the increased competition, our focus during the softening market continues to be on risk selection, retaining profitable accounts and providing exceptional claims and safety services for our policyholders. Our combined ratio of 76.8% for the quarter and 77% for the year are reflective of our focus over an extended period of time. My reference to increased competition leads me to my first operational metric, we were disappointed with gross premiums written this quarter, which declined 9.1% from the previous year’s fourth quarter. The decline was driven by the loss of three large accounts in the quarter. The expiring…

Neal Fuller

Analyst

Thank you, Janelle. For the fourth quarter of 2016, AMERISAFE reported net income of $19.1 million or $0.99 per diluted share, compared with $23.1 million or $1.21 per diluted share in last year’s fourth quarter, a decrease of 17.3%. Operating net income in the quarter was $20 million or $1.04 per share, a 13.1% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2015. For the full-year 2016, AMERISAFE produced record net income of $77.9 million or $4.05 per share, an increase of 10.5% over 2015. Operating net income for the full year was $78.2 million, an increase of 8.5% when compared to 2015. Revenues in the quarter declined 3.1% to $98.6 million, compared with the fourth quarter of 2015. Net premiums earned also decreased 3.1% to $92.1 million when compared to last year’s fourth quarter. For the full year, net premiums earned were down 1.9% coming in at $368.7 million. Turning to net investment income, we saw an increase of 8.3% in the fourth quarter to $7.9 million compared with $7.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. The increase was largely due to the increase in value of a hedge fund investment, which is mark-to-market through net income each quarter. Net investment income for the full year totaled $28.1 million, an increase of 0.7%. The tax equivalent yield on our investment portfolio was 3.2% in the fourth quarter, down slightly from 3.3% in the same quarter a year ago. There were no impairments during the quarter. As part of our tax strategy, we sold some securities at a loss during the quarter to offset taxable realized gains from earlier in 2016, as well as to offset some taxable realized gains from 2013. Our opportunity to carry-back losses to offset those 2013 gains was expiring at year-end. As a result, during the…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mark Hughes with SunTrust. Your line is now open.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning.

Janelle Frost

Analyst

Good morning, Mark.

Neal Fuller

Analyst

Good morning.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

Where do we stand with the large accounts, the three accounts of $4.7 million, are there many more like that if we chased off the ones that are vulnerable?

Janelle Frost

Analyst

Well, I wouldn’t like to say we chased them off, but, yes, we have approximately 74 accounts over $250,000 in force at December 31, 2016 that accounts for about $26 million of premium, but the largest one is less than $700,000.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

Right. So to a degree, your vulnerability there is less.

Janelle Frost

Analyst

Correct.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

Yes. How about other steps you can take still maintaining your prudent underwriting to expand the book, any new distribution initiatives, anything that, again, given the environment you are faced with and your underwriting approach, anything you can do to kind of get the topline stable or moving up?

Janelle Frost

Analyst

That’s a really good question, I’ll start with I think during this market cycle, our number one priority is maintaining and renewing those accounts that we know were profitable and keeping those on the books. We are seeking new business. I don’t expect us to expand our focus, change our risk selection process or expand geographies. I do think there are opportunities out there for AMERISAFE but there is plenty of competition that go along with that, so at this point any growth, all other things being equal, may not be the prudent answer for AMERISAFE.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

Understood. How about in Florida? What are you seeing there with the potential volatility around losses, the price changes, what do you think is going to happen?

Janelle Frost

Analyst

I think AMERISAFE as well as all other carriers at this point are just cautious about what’s happening in Florida, I mean there is business to write there. With the 14% rate increase, I think people are willing to write business. Obviously, there’s two ways you compete, you compete on business commissions and policyholder dividends because the rates are set. So I think everyone’s still in a cautious mood but there is opportunity to grow there.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

Right. So you haven’t seen any spike in losses nothing like that still currently?

Janelle Frost

Analyst

No, we haven’t. Good question. But, no, we haven’t.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

So at least at this point as far as you can judge the rates are keeping ahead of any loss trends.

Janelle Frost

Analyst

I don’t know that - the court decision has been finalized, at this point, it’s still in appeals. I mean, everyone’s charging the 14% rate increase at this point, but I guess it’s still technically in limbo.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

Right. Okay. Thank you very much.

Janelle Frost

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Randy Binner with FBR Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Randy Binner

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Hey, good morning. Thanks.

Janelle Frost

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Good morning.

Randy Binner

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Good morning. I guess, I can focus more on margins and into the - the ELCM ticked down a little bit kind of sequentially, but not - it’s still pretty darn good. And it implies like a 60% loss ratio and you guys are running at kind of 68%. So clearly the comments on the market are cautious and we are across the industry going into a softer market. So how should we think about loss, do they need to get more conservative or do you need to think about what you can do on the top line because you are running the ELCM versus where your picks are, I know your book is emerging, still has a pretty wide buffer.

Janelle Frost

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Okay. I would say this AMERISAFE’s reserving practices has not changed. We are aware of the ELCM, obviously, part of the way we set our pricing is how we are reserving on accounts today, so I don’t see that changing in the near future.

Randy Binner

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

And then, well, the prior-year development favorable is greater for the year. And it was a high number. It seemed like it kind of slowed down a little bit in the back half. 2016 is there, is your sense of that these were some very good underwriting years for workers’ compensation, is your sense that the redundancy from those years is kind of declining or is this more of a timing issue first half versus second half 2016?

Janelle Frost

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

I don’t think you can read into that that there is a change in the reserving based on how we’re followed in the various quarters. We are in a lumpy business and as we’ve said in the last few quarters, the development that we’ve experienced, the favorable development that we’ve experienced has really been driven by case reserves. So, those don’t seem to happen escalating over a period of time, first quarter versus fourth quarter. Look comparing this year to last year, it does look like that we had less favorable development in the fourth quarter this year than we did last year and I think actually the first quarter was our largest quarter this year, but that’s really driven by what’s happening with our case reserves.

Randy Binner

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Okay. Some are lumpy, not really a trend.

Janelle Frost

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Correct.

Randy Binner

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Yes, okay. Yeah, I’ll leave it there. Thank you so much.

Janelle Frost

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Thank you, Randy.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Matthew Carletti with JMP. Your line is now open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · JMP. Your line is now open.

Yes, hi, good morning, my name is [indiscernible] I have a question on behalf of Matt Carletti at JMP. And I apologize if I missed this on the call earlier, but can you just advise what the reported LCM number is for the quarter?

Janelle Frost

Analyst · JMP. Your line is now open.

Certainly, it was 1.67.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · JMP. Your line is now open.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Janelle Frost

Analyst · JMP. Your line is now open.

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

And I’m showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Janelle Frost for any further remarks.

Janelle Frost

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Our record earnings this year are the result of AMERISAFE’s employees focus on risk selection, safety and claims services and expense management. Our 400-plus employees thrive on providing exceptional service to our policyholders, while balancing their responsibility to provide returns to our shareholders. We are proud to be part of such a amazing team. Thank you, AMERISAFE employees, for a successful year. I would also like to express gratitude to Austin Young. Austin has announced that he will be retiring from AMERISAFE’s Board at our annual meeting. Austin has served our Board for 12 years and his leadership has been instrumental to the company and to me personally. On behalf of AMERISAFE’s Board and employees, I would like to thank him for his service and guidance. Thank you for joining us today.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today’s conference. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.