Earnings Labs

American Tower Corporation (AMT)

Q1 2019 Earnings Call· Fri, May 3, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Tower First Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. Now at this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. And your hosting speaker Igor Khislavsky. Please go ahead.

Igor Khislavsky

Analyst

Thanks, Kevin. Good morning and thank you for joining American Tower's First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. We have posted a presentation, which we will refer to throughout our prepared remarks, under the Investor Relations tab of our website, www.americantower.com. Our agenda for this morning's call will be as follows. First, I will provide an overview of our financial results for the quarter. Next, Jim Taiclet, our Chairman, President, and CEO, will provide a brief update on our U.S. business. And finally, Tom Bartlett, our Executive Vice President and CFO, will discuss our first quarter results and 2019 outlook in more detail. After these comments, we will open up the call for your questions. Before I begin, I will remind you that this call will contain Forward-Looking Statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Examples of these statements include our expectations regarding industry trends, as well as our future growth, including our 2019 outlook, capital allocation and future operating performance; the pacing and magnitude of the Indian carrier consolidation process and its impacts on American Tower, and any other statements regarding matters that are not historical facts. You should be aware that certain factors may affect us in the future and could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. Such factors include the risk factors set forth in this morning's earnings press release, those set forth in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2018, and in other filings we make with the SEC. We urge you to consider these factors and remind you that we undertake no obligation to update the information contained in this call to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Now, please turn to Slide 4 of our presentation, which highlights our financial results for the first quarter of 2019. As expected, these results, as well as our year-over-year growth rates, were impacted by Indian Carrier Consolidation-Driven Churn. During the quarter, our property revenue grew 4.4% to $1.8 billion, our adjusted EBITDA grew by 5% to $1.1 billion and our consolidated AFFO and consolidated AFFO per share increased by 6.7% and 5.4% to $861 million and $1.94 per share respectively. Finally, net income attributable to American Tower Corporation common stockholders increased by more than 44% to $397 million or $0.89 per diluted common share. Additionally, like last quarter, many of our comments around first quarter results and our 2019 outlook will be focused on growth rates normalized for carrier consolidation-driven churn in India. Normalized outlook growth rates also adjust for the non-recurrence of the impacts of the Tata settlement we recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018. We view these normalized results as important indicators of the underlying trends of our business. Reconciliations of these normalized metrics to our GAAP results are included in the back of our earnings presentation, in our press release and in our supplemental package. And with that, I will turn the call over to Jim.

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Thanks Igor and good morning to everyone on the call. My remarks today will focus on the traditional first quarter report theme of our U.S. business, which accounts for the majority of our cash flows. ATC's U.S. operations continue to generate strong organic tenant billings growth, achieving 8.2% in Q1 2019. Rapidly rising mobile data usage in the range of 30% to 40% per year remains the underlying driver of demand for our U.S. assets. The sheer growth in the volume of mobile data traffic, plus consumers expectations of ubiquitous, higher quality coverage, motivate the national wireless carriers to continually invest in their networks to remain competitive. Consequently, we again expect U.S. aggregate mobile CapEx in 2019 to be on the order of $30 billion, as carriers preserve network quality and enhanced capacity. For ATC, we expect that to translate into significant lease amendment revenue growth on our towers, including for equipment to support the deployment of new and repurposed spectrum bands. Independent industry research estimates suggest that elevated usage trends will persist, as more advanced devices, applications and network technologies are introduced in the United States. One key projection is that by 2023, the average U.S. consumer mobile device is expected to consume nearly 50 gigabytes of data per month, which is nearly four times current levels. Meanwhile, industry analysts are also forecasting the deployment of more than 0.5 billion active IoT devices in the U.S. within the next five years . Taken together, in aggregate. Monthly U.S. mobile data usage is therefore predicted to exceed 20 exabytes by 2023, again, about four times today's levels. As our tenants seek to optimize their networks in the context of this tremendous usage growth, initial deployments and mobile operator planning for wider implementation of 5G have intensified. As described in their…

Tom Bartlett

Analyst · Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Thanks, Jim. Good morning, everyone. Following a strong finish to 2018, we kicked off 2019 with a terrific set of results. Our Q1 U.S. organic tenant billings growth came in at over 8%, new business trends throughout our Latin America and EMEA segments remained solid, the recovery in India continue to progress in line with our expectations and we constructed over 700 sites globally. We also grew our common stock dividend by 20% over the prior year quarter, while continuing to deploy capital to both our core business and to select innovation-oriented investments that Jim just mentioned. With that, let's take a deep dive into our first quarter results and our outlook for the full-year. If you please turn to Slide 8. During the quarter, we generated consolidated organic tenant billings growth, normalized for the impacts of Indian Carrier Consolidation-Driven Churn of over 8%. More than 6% of this was driven by volume growth from gross new business. From a segment perspective, our U.S. region reported property revenue growth for the period of nearly 6%, including a negative impact of 2.3% from lower non-cash straight-line revenue recognition. This reflected our second consecutive quarter of record new business contributions, leading to organic tenant billings growth of 8.2%. Volume growth from co-locations and amendments contributed over 6%, while pricing escalators contributed just over 3%. This was partially offset by churn of about 1.3%. Our major U.S. wireless carrier customers continue to make significant network investments to keep pace with the growing mobile data usage. And we again saw activity, largely weighted toward amendments in the quarter. Our reported international property revenue growth during the period was about 3%, including a negative impact of 9% due to the Indian Carrier Consolidation-Driven Churn. Underpinning this growth was normalized organic tenant billings growth of over…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] With that being said, we will go straight to the first question from Brandon Nispel, KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Brandon Nispel

Analyst

Great, thanks for taking my questions. I had two if I could. First in the US business, another strong quarter of 8%-plus growth. I think some people had thought that that could never happen, given the size of your business. Can you maybe unpack that growth in terms of what percentage of your new leasing activity is coming from the big four US carriers and was hoping that you could also impact your guidance along the same lines for the year? Secondly, one of the things that we get questions on, and I thought was highlighted really well on the call, was the return on investment in the US business. When you think about the different international markets you had and maybe particularly India, I was hoping you could comment on your longer-term expectations for return on investment and whether or not there are any structural benefits or negatives that may make those markets less attractive from a return on investment standpoint. Thanks.

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

So Brandon, good morning. The percent of US business coming from the big four carriers in the United States, both for the quarter and our expectations for the year is going to range 85% to 90%, coming from those four companies. So that is similar for both current results and for the guidance for the year. And then when it comes to India and emerging markets in that, Asia generally low to mid-teen percent ROI is our ultimate goal, or ROIC. So we expect to attain that within the planning period, which is 10 years for each investment, so with the Viom investment a couple - three years old, we expect by the mid-2020s that we should be able to achieve that kind of level.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst · Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

And just to add on, just on the color on the growth. Again, we are still, as I mentioned, largely amendment-driven in 2019, and I would expect that to be the same really. For the balance of the year, it is probably 80:20 kind of relationship. And as Jim mentioned, on the ROI, I mean if you take a look at the U.S. actually in EMEA and LATAM, our ROICs in those markets are largely 10% at this point in time. Now given the consolidated churn that we have seen in India, the ROIC in that particular region is below 10%, probably in that 6% plus kind of range. So we would - obviously given the growth that we have seen in the market - by the way, in Q1 we had a record level of new co-locations in Mammoth, contributing to the organic growth in that market. So, and as I mentioned, there over kind of a 10% on a normalized basis growth. So we would definitely see that kind of expansion ROIC over the next several years.

Brandon Nispel

Analyst

And I guess, if I could just follow up quickly, 85% to 90% new leasing from Big Four, how does that compare with what you have seen historically?

Tom Bartlett

Analyst · Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

It's very consistent with what we have seen historically.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And next question is from the line of Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead.

Colby Synesael

Analyst · Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Great, thank you. As it relates to your innovation program and I guess that is where the Colo ATL $70 million investment fits in. I'm just curious, how big is that program and what is the expectation or what expectation should we have for additional smaller, I guess what I would refer to as just trial type acquisitions, just to learn more about that market? And then secondly, as it relates to the US organic guidance of around 7% versus the 8% plus you just did that obviously would imply then that we should see a notable step down as we go through the year. How should we interpret that in terms of what might be driving that slowdown as we go through? Thanks.

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Colby, good morning. It's Jim. On the innovation program, we are essentially in the exploratory and prototyping phase with outside customers, including in some areas the big four or international markets, there is sort of a prevalence overseas in markets, whether it's energy management or it's figuring out what the EDGE data plan is going to be, is often with our current customers. And secondly, we are trying to understand and prototype projects with customers - potential customers that might scale in industries other than telecommunications, which will need those kind of assets, so the kind of assets that we provide, which are tower sites and indoor DAS systems, predominantly. So that is the realm of the program. What we spent so far to-date on capital expense has been - and mergers and acquisitions has been about $1 billion total. The bulk of that in five related assets outside the US, whose predominant purpose at ATC is to connect fiber to towers in markets and countries where there isn't a robust fiber supply base, like there is in the US. So for 4G sites and certainly for 5G, every tower is ultimately going to need a fiber like connection or fiber connection to it and we are making most of our investments to lay the groundwork literally for that to happen in emerging markets. And so, as Tom said, we are only going to make investments in assets and in locations and for applications that we expect to meet our return criteria similar to towers.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst · Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

And Colby, regarding to your second question, at this point of time in the year we are keeping our annual guidance roughly the same. Really the only issue with the guidance is, as I mentioned, kind of a short while ago, we continue - we are seeing the same positive trends we expected when we originally rolled out the guidance just a couple of months ago. Coming into the year, you always have more visibility into the first half. So makes sense that you would expect a stronger first half, and as you know, as we progress through the year and in July, to the extent that we see some different trends, hopefully, we will see upside, but we will see, and we will update that guidance in July.

Colby Synesael

Analyst · Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

So, nothing specific that you are thinking of that would clearly lead to a step down? I guess, sounds like just more conservatism at this point than anything else.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst · Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Yeah, I think that is fair. I mean I think we have strong application pipelines. The US group is - our US team is excited about this types of activity that they are seeing and we are coming off a very strong first quarter, and hopefully, we will see some of those continuing trends going forward.

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

There is one mathematical factor in addition to that, which is the quarterly comps from year-to-year can vary. Right? So in 2018 at ATC, we had relatively lower growth than later in the year, and this year we are having initially high growth and we have kept our guidance, as Tom said, for the following quarter. So even the comps mathematically, simply give you a little bit of a different answer, if you will, going forward. So again, we will update everything based on what actually happens over the next couple of months.

Colby Synesael

Analyst · Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And next question is from the line of Simon Flannery, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Simon Flannery

Analyst · Simon Flannery, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Great, thanks a lot. I wonder if we could talk a little bit about some of the international markets. Can you drive it a little bit more into the individual markets in Latin America and EMEA, what are you seeing, where it's strong, where it's a little bit slower? And also in Europe, there is a lot of portfolios that are potentially being offered by the carriers. How do you think about that market and is there likely to be any value there to cause you to do more in that area? Thanks.

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Simon Flannery, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Sure, Simon. Some of the strong international markets continue to be Mexico, which is having a 4G campaign, if you will, between the new entrant Altan, and some of the incumbents that are already there. Brazil has also been strong. All four of their wireless operators there are competing in deploying 3G and 4G. In spite of all that there are some lower escalators based on inflation, and also some slightly higher churn in the markets, due to some Nextel legacy items that is it rolling off, which we expected anyway. But overall gross growth rates, as Tom suggests, in Brazil are really strong. India is really coming back on the new business, the gross new business, if you will, before churn and we expect that trend to continue, especially with the rights offerings and other capital raising activities of Idea, Vodafone and Airtel along the way. So when you add it all up, it's about 10% plus normalized organic growth in our international markets in our forecast this year. As far as European assets, so we are going to look at them through the same lens we have always looked at them through, most likely lower growth than some of our current markets. including the US. Also some industry structure concerns over there that could also inhibit growth in returns and frankly, there is a new investor class coming into that space, it has come into that space that has lower return criteria and until that changes, because we are not changing our investment criteria, we may or may not act in a large way in Europe.

Simon Flannery

Analyst · Simon Flannery, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

And the industry structure means less than four players or what is that kind of comment?

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Simon Flannery, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Well there are three or four mobile operators in all the markets which - in Europe, which causes them to be highly competitive, it's tougher for them to - because the countries are smaller in scale than, say, the US is to invest as sort of rapidly, historically, than the US will invest. So growth rates tend to be a little bit lower. And then there is the standard supply side of towers in Europe, which tend to be shorter, a lot of overlap and often some churn that comes with infrastructure consolidation that you have to absorb if you are into these businesses. So those are some of the structural issues in Europe that we think retard the growth rate potential a little bit.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst · Simon Flannery, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Even, Simon, if you take a look at the press release, just look down the segment information, you can see some of the growth we had in the quarter internationally in co-locations and amendments and we have roughly $32 million of new business versus $27 million from last year. So I think they are all strong growth, and it's largely being led by India. I mean, the - Latin America continues to be strong and EMEA is up a little bit, but India has actually been kind of the driving force in Q1. So just something to look at.

Simon Flannery

Analyst · Simon Flannery, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Batya Levi, UBS. Please go ahead.

Batya Levi

Analyst · Batya Levi, UBS. Please go ahead

Great, thank you. In the U.S., can you provide maybe a little bit more color on the type of early activity and applications you are seeing related to 4G deployments and how do you think that changes the 80:20 amendment new lease mix going forward? Do you think some of that new business has gone toward carrier-owned towers or maybe other private companies? And just lastly, can you provide an update on the monthly revenues you get from the amendment today, how is that been increasing over time?

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Batya Levi, UBS. Please go ahead

I mean I think the question was on the 5G, what are you actually seeing relative to deployment of 5G activity on the towers, is that correct?

Batya Levi

Analyst · Batya Levi, UBS. Please go ahead

That is right. Then amendment, new lease and if you think some of that activity is actually going toward their own towers or other private companies?

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Batya Levi, UBS. Please go ahead

Well, I don't know about that mix. I can tell you that I mean it's a better question for the carriers themselves in terms of the types of things that they are deploying. But I'm sure that they are 4G enhanced, they are 5G radios that are being deployed as we speak. So that when 5G gets turned on, it's really just a kind of a software upgrade. So I'm certain that they are those applications. I don't know what the percentage is relative to how much of that activity is normal - to normal kind of 4G activity, but I'm certain that the carriers themselves are deploying that kind of technology. I mean if you look at T-Mobile, they talked about 600 megahertz being rolled out to really support their nationwide 5G capability. So you know those types of radios are being deployed. And relative to amendment activity, as I said, overall amendments are roughly 80%. The activity that we are seeing from an application and a - perspective in the United States, they are probably in the $800, $900 range, given the level of equipment that is being put on the sites and amending those particular leases.

Batya Levi

Analyst · Batya Levi, UBS. Please go ahead

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from the line of David Barden, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

David Barden

Analyst · David Barden, Bank of America. Please go ahead

Hey guys, thanks for taking the questions. I guess, to start. First would be, SBA went out of their way to call out Dish as a new business driver for them. Sounds like they were willing to be flexible to kind of accommodate some Dish's challenges that they look to kind of get their 2020 deadline fulfilled. So I was wondering if you guys could kind of address that opportunity and what it's contributing to this kind of 8.2% domestic growth rate that we are seeing today? And then the second is, Jio in India has spoken publicly about trying to monetize its roughly 100,000 tower portfolio, and I could see how that might represent a potential risk if it fell into an independent operator's hands or a potential opportunity if it represented a consolidation opportunity for American Tower. So I wonder if you could talk about the risk-opportunity that Jio represents in their tower portfolio? Thanks.

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · David Barden, Bank of America. Please go ahead

As far as specific customers, including Dish, David, we don't comment on either negotiations contracts or new business flow with any of them, but you can assume that for us Dish is within that 10% to 15% non-major carrier new business ratio that we talked about earlier. As far as Jio, yes, there are press reports about the company exploring ways to either refinance or monetize or spin off tower and fiber assets. we will stay abreast of those developments. Historically, when independent investors eventually get a hold, if they do of carrier-owned tower assets that is good for the tower industry, because the contracts tend to be arm's length and more of what I would call sort of industry standard, once the outside owners are in control of the assets and not the captive carrier business. So it will be a positive if it comes through. Either way, I don't see it as a risk at all.

David Barden

Analyst · David Barden, Bank of America. Please go ahead

Okay, great, thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

And next question is from the line of Ric Prentiss, Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst · Ric Prentiss, Raymond James. Please go ahead

Thanks. Good morning, guys. A couple of follow-ups and then one deeper question. First, when you guys talk about 80:20 amendment co-lo, how do you count if an existing customer comes and wants to do more work at the tower, maybe also including a new RAD center. Is that still counting as an amendment?

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Ric Prentiss, Raymond James. Please go ahead

Generally, Ric, that would be a separate lease, but based on specific customers or circumstances or legacy contract that may be on the tower it could be different, but generally a new RAD center equates to a new lease which would count as a co-location.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst · Ric Prentiss, Raymond James. Please go ahead

Okay. And second one, one of the other tower guys mentioned that they had explicitly kind of assumed in their guidance a combination in the US from four to three, at least on their services business. Is there anything baked into your guidance on assumption of any industry change in the U.S.?

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Ric Prentiss, Raymond James. Please go ahead

We don't have any assumptions either way baked into industry consolidation in the US. And given that we are almost halfway through the year, and by the time something might close, whatever the ramifications could occur from that, if it happened, would probably be out in 2020 and beyond.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst · Ric Prentiss, Raymond James. Please go ahead

Makes sense. The deeper question is, following up on Simon's question where you said the new investor classes coming in with lower return hurdles, is that driving also some of your thoughts that building towers might be able to create value than buying towers as you look at M&A?

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Ric Prentiss, Raymond James. Please go ahead

Yes, because those new builds, whether inside or outside of the US tend to be historically for ATC the highest-return projects we have, it's always been that way, because you are meeting a specific need of a specific carrier in a specific geography versus buying a portfolio and sort of paying the acquisition premium for that. So it's historically been the best return activity we can do, and we will continue to do so, and as the batting order, Ric, of our capital allocation process has remained the same, we are going to fund our dividends first, we are going to build towers second, we are going to do M&A third, and if there is excess capital left over we will buy back equity or buy back stock. So that batting order remains the same.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst · Ric Prentiss, Raymond James. Please go ahead

Makes sense. Appreciate the batting order with the Rays doing pretty well. Final question wraps into that, does it make sense to sell any portions of your portfolio? Increased amount of joint ventures that people have lower return hurdles and have cash in their pocket, could we see you guys sell some more stakes in your Company to bring in fresh capital to deploy elsewhere?

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Ric Prentiss, Raymond James. Please go ahead

We are always open to innovative financing and partnership arrangements, Ric, and you have seen us do that in numerous countries, whether they are with carriers or with independent financial partners like PGGM. In Europe, we are a 51/49 partner with them in both France and Germany. So yes, we are open to it and we don't have any sort of religious restrictions, whether it's getting into those stakes or getting out of them, if we think the economic situation merits that.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst · Ric Prentiss, Raymond James. Please go ahead

Great, thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Michael Rollins, Citi. Please go ahead.

Michael Rollins

Analyst · Michael Rollins, Citi. Please go ahead

Hi, thanks and good morning. Just maybe staying on the strategic front, two questions. A few years back, you articulated the importance of being, I think it was the top three competitor in any market that you are in. I am just curious, in some of the key international markets, how do you evaluate that today and is that still important as you look at the new markets? And then going back to the question on partnerships, or the comments on partnership, are partnerships more important for the adjacent growth opportunities that you have been considering, for example, on the EDGE data center front or maybe some of the other initiatives where you need to try and edge out into a broader ecosystem? Thanks.

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Michael Rollins, Citi. Please go ahead

So we are already either first or second, Mike, in most of our major international markets, and by the way, we are first in the U.S. as an independent tower company and have been for some time. We are first in Brazil. And remember independent tower company is important here, because captive carrier assets, really to us, don't perform and aren't managed the same way. But nevertheless, in Brazil, we are number one in Mexico, we are number one, South Africa the number one independent, in India the number one independent. So we have achieved industry leadership as an independent infrastructure provider outside of carrier ownership and control in essentially all of the major markets that we care to be in. There is some where we are not and those were conscious decisions, like at the time in Nigeria where IHS was creating a larger market position than we currently have, will be a happy number two there for a while, it looks like. But, generally in the large major markets, we are the number one or two operator. As far as partnerships, we are applying our innovation initiatives really across the board. As I said, the PGGM partnership on a financial perspective in Europe was something that Tom and I talked about as an innovative way to bring capital in to support our ambitions in Europe. Similarly, and you pointed out specifically EDGE data. I think there is a great opportunity for us to bring the asset base that we bring, which is the 40,000 US towers and the 330 or 340 indoor DAS systems we have in the US, to a partner who brings something else, could it be spectrum, could it be cloud compute capability, could it be existing big larger datacenters, any of those are possible. So we have had to actually pivot our thinking to say partnerships can be, in an innovation sense, a much broader context than they are today, or they have been historically, I would say, in our industry, which is partnerships with wireless operators in some fashion, whether it's a sale leaseback, it's sublease et cetera with the mobile operators, those have always been in our industry. But now we are taking a much wider perspective on partnerships and figuring out, we hope where the puck is going, who can partner with our assets and bring theirs in a complementary fashion and that is a perspective we are now taking.

Michael Rollins

Analyst · Michael Rollins, Citi. Please go ahead

Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Matthew Niknam, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Matthew Niknam

Analyst · Matthew Niknam, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question. Just on India, any more color you can share in terms of what is driving the growth activity, and then what gives you confidence in the ability of the business to actually return growth to sort of historical levels within the next couple of quarters, by 2020? Thanks.

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Matthew Niknam, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

So, the drivers in India, organic growth for us on a gross basis now are Jio and the other two major carriers, are actually ramping up as well. As I mentioned, they are going to be having access to proceeds from both rights issues, so equity investments from their end investors and also asset sales that they are all planning or expected to do. So, we think that those three carriers along with BSNL in a much more minor way, will continue to drive organic growth in India, because the three of them are going to need to establish a national 4G network, which although Jio gets a lot of headlines for doing it first, is, A, not pervasive across the country, and B, with the capacity to handle a billion users on 4G. So that spend is going to happen, there will be we think a significant increase in the number of sites and the loading on sites in India. And as Tom referenced, our most active construction program already is in India, to start serving this market. So when you look at, again, the fundamentals in the US, we talk about is 30% to 40% data growth, $30 billion of CapEx. In India, you are talking about even faster data growth rates on three times as many people, much earlier in the technology deployment cycle. So once the industry consolidation settles in over the course of 2019 and as we roll into 2020 and beyond, we fully expect between those three large carriers and BSNL that there will be strong top-line organic growth demand in India.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst · Matthew Niknam, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

The other thing I would add Matt is that our own internal estimates, as well as outside third-party estimates is suggesting that kind of the roughly industry 600,000 tower leases that exist in the market are going to be growing to over 1 million over the next several years and I think that is just a reflection of all the things that Jim just talked to.

Matthew Niknam

Analyst · Matthew Niknam, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

If I could just follow up, I think in the past you have talked about 3% to 4% sort of normalized longer-term churn in that market. Is that still the case and when do you sort of anticipate getting to more of a stabilized rate?

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Matthew Niknam, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Actually, we think that probably the normalized rate of churn, which is if you back out what the impact of the India carrier consolidation churn in Q1, it is probably more in that 1% to 2% kind of range. So, half of what you just talked to.

Matthew Niknam

Analyst · Matthew Niknam, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

And in terms of timing to get there, that sort of late 2020?

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Matthew Niknam, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

We realized that already in Q1. So we would think that as we are going out into the end of this year we will flush out all of that India carrier consolidated churn. So getting back into 2020, we should start to get back to those historical rates of what we have realized in terms of growth back in the 2016 and 2017 time frames.

Matthew Niknam

Analyst · Matthew Niknam, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Tim Horan, Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Tim Horan

Analyst · Tim Horan, Oppenheimer. Please go ahead

Thanks, guys. Tom, I know you said normalized AFFO grew 11%. But if you normalize for the India churn, was that closer to 15%?

Tom Bartlett

Analyst · Tim Horan, Oppenheimer. Please go ahead

When I referred to the normalization, it's actually backing out that India carrier consolidated churn.

Tim Horan

Analyst · Tim Horan, Oppenheimer. Please go ahead

Great. Indoor - can you talk about what percentage of revenue indoor is in the United States now and do you think you are kind of growing at market rate?

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Tim Horan, Oppenheimer. Please go ahead

The indoor DAS asset is about 2% to 3% of our US revenue at this point, and that is been growing about 10% recently. So pretty solid growth in that business, although, it's relatively small compared to the major tower asset we have in the US.

Tim Horan

Analyst · Tim Horan, Oppenheimer. Please go ahead

And then lastly on India, do you think with the consolidation being done and maybe more sales of assets that the pricing structure over there could look more like the US over time? It's a fairly unique market in terms of pricing.

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Tim Horan, Oppenheimer. Please go ahead

The pricing is going to be in a different category than the US, but the long-term structure of contracts will, I think, evolve more closely to what I would call the global tower industry standard, where there is more favorable escalation rates, less favorable reinvestment rates et cetera on the sites and the elimination of discounts for second or third tenants along the way. So those sort of contract structural adjustments I expect to come over time in India, which will actually improve your effective pricing, frankly. But as far as rupees for per month per antenna, I can't predict where those are going to go.

Tim Horan

Analyst · Tim Horan, Oppenheimer. Please go ahead

Yeah. No, that is what I was looking for. That is very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we do have time for one additional question and that will be from the line of Philip Cusick, JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Philip Cusick

Analyst · Philip Cusick, JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Just before the bell. Jim, can you talk more about the potential model for your EDGE compute at the tower, any estimate on the potential number or percent of sites over time that that might generate and sort of relative rent versus a carrier? Thanks.

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Philip Cusick, JPMorgan. Please go ahead

So there is a lot of uncertainty around all those factors Phil, and that is why we are broadening our access and involvement with other industries right now. So we are engaged with cloud providers, we are part of the CVRS team that is looking at how to deploy 3.5 spectrum, both within and without outside of mobile operators. We are involved and engaged, especially our CTO is, on innovation and technology task forces with other industries like the automotive industry, for example. So we are in a learning phase about a lot of these initiatives, including EDGE compute. But we are taking them in a methodical, serious and resourced way, so that we can be ahead of our industry, both in the U.S. and outside, because frankly we feel we are the only globally accessible tower company in the world that can reach really all the highly populated continents with a partner, and some of those partners will be global multinational companies, unlike even the national license holders we have in our tenant base today. So we do learn and prototype and determine all those factors. We know it's going to be important and we want to lead the wider industry in figuring out these tower sites. Because of their placement and their immediate proximity to the mobile RAN, radio access network, are going to be really important real estate assets that they should learn how to work with and we want them to work with us.

Philip Cusick

Analyst · Philip Cusick, JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Great. Thanks Jim.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Back over to speakers for any closing remarks.

Jim Taiclet

Analyst · Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Please go ahead

Great, thank you everybody for joining. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference. We do thank you for joining, you may now disconnect.