Ajita G. Rajendra
Analyst · Jefferies
Thanks, John. Our outlook for 2013 includes the following assumptions. First, we expect that sales growth of A. O. Smith branded products in China will be approximately 18% in 2013, largely driven by products with new features and benefits that provide incremental value to our customers. We also have seen a positive impact in sales coming from online purchases, and we expect online sales to more than double in 2013 from $5 million last year. You can infer from our 18% revenue growth assumption for the year, that we expect our growth in China will slow to low-double digits in the second half of the year. We believe that tighter housing regulations implemented earlier this year will have the government's desired impact and slow new home occupancy. And we also have a difficult year-over-year comparison in the fourth quarter due to record fourth quarter sales in 2012. Second, we expect our Lochinvar brand to continue to benefit from the transition from lower efficiency, non-condensing boilers to higher efficiency condensing boilers. Lochinvar branded condensing boilers continue to offer a compelling payback in the form of energy savings, and we have built a reputation for innovation and product quality. As a result, we expect Lochinvar branded sales to grow 10% in 2013, well ahead of GDP growth in the U.S. Third, we are cautiously optimistic about the developing recovery in the U.S. housing and the overall economy in the U.S. We expect residential water heater volumes in the U.S. to be 400,000 units higher than last year, based on an increase in housing completions, as well as in replacement units. Even though the industry experienced strong commercial volumes in the first half of 2013, which we believe was partially due to a pre-buy related to a Northern California regulatory change, we expect commercial volumes to be up about 4% for the full year. Our outlook for the U.S. water heater business has improved from 3 months ago, and based on that, we have increased our 2013 adjusted EPS guidance to be between $1.84 and $1.90 per share. The midpoint of our new range represents a 20% increase over 2012 adjusted EPS of $1.56 per share. This guidance does not include the restructuring and impairment expenses associated with the planned rationalization, the settlement with a former supplier, non-operating pension costs or future acquisitions. Our GAAP EPS guidance is now expected to be $1.62 to $1.68 per share due to the impact from the restructuring and impairment expenses, partially offset by the settlement income, neither of which were in our GAAP guidance at the beginning of the year. Strong performance in our North American segment also prompted us to update our high-level 2015 aspirations for our organic business. Based on our expectations for EBIT margins driven by new construction and 10% revenue growth in our Lochinvar branded products through 2015, we are reviving our North American segment margin expectation to approximately 15.5% from the previously recorded 14.5%. This revision incorporates expenses related to the implementation of an Enterprise Resource Planning system of approximately $11 million in 2015. Expenses related to the ERP system are projected to be approximately $5 million this year and $15 million in 2014. We expect significant benefits from the system after its planned implementation is completed in North America by late 2015. We continue to expect organic growth of 7% per year through 2015, resulting in revenues of $2.4 billion to $2.45 billion. Our Rest of World segment margin expectation continues to be 13% by 2015. Our earnings aspirations for our existing portfolio of businesses are now expected to be approximately $2.25 per share by 2015 versus the previously disclosed $2.15 per share. As you can see, this continues to be an exciting and transformative time for our company. We have cash and borrowing capacity for additional acquisitions, and our pipeline of acquisitions supporting our stated growth strategy to expand our global footprint in water heating and water treatment solution is active. Based on our core competencies, our strategic focus for growth is simple: hot water and clean water. We are pursuing actionable acquisitions in these 2 areas around the world. We are also pursuing acquisitions which expand our core product lines. We are particularly keen on products and technologies that offer energy and water efficiency gains. And finally, we are considering water-related adjacencies which can leverage our distribution, water heating know-how and brand to provide value to our shareholders. We expect our businesses to generate approximately $100 million of free cash flow in 2013. As a result, our board increased our authorization to repurchase shares resulting in approximately 2.5 million shares available. We may repurchase shares through a combination of opportunistic open market purchases, stock trades and 10b5-1 automatic trading plans. We believe our free cash flow borrowing capacity and existing cash of over $450 million are adequate to support the repurchase program, as well as our active acquisition strategy. You have seen this last chart before, we show this only as a reminder that we will be a financially disciplined acquirer. You should know that while we came close to completing a handful of acquisitions over the past 12 months, we have walked away for various reasons. In the end, we held fast to our financial criteria. Our transactions will be focused on value creation and creating returns for our shareholders. This concludes our prepared remarks, and now we are open for your questions.