Earnings Labs

American Public Education, Inc. (APEI)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 6, 2014

$57.60

+0.03%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2014 American Public Education Earnings Conference Call. My name is Lacey, and I'll be your coordinator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Chris Symanoskie, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Christopher L. Symanoskie

Analyst

Great. Thank you, operator. Good evening, and welcome to American Public Education conference call to discuss financial and operating results for the third quarter of 2014. Presentation materials for today's call are available in the webcast section of our Investor Relations website and are included as an exhibit to our current report on Form 8-K filed earlier today. Please note that statements made in this conference call regarding American Public Education or its subsidiaries that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements based on current expectations, assumptions, estimates and projections about American Public Education and the industry. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual future events or results to differ materially from such statements. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as anticipate, believe, seek, could, estimate, expect, intend, may, should, will and would. These forward-looking statements include, without limitation, statements regarding expected growth, expected registration and enrollment, expected revenue, expected earnings and plans with respect to recent and future investments and partnerships. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including the risk factors described in the Risk Factors section and elsewhere in the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC and the company's other SEC filings. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements for any reason, even if new information becomes available or other events occur in the future. This evening, it's my pleasure to introduce Dr. Wallace Boston, our President and CEO; and Rick Sunderland, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Also available for questions today is Harry Wilkins, Executive Vice President, Chief Development Officer and CEO of Hondros College of Nursing. Now at this time, I'll turn the call over to Dr. Boston. Wally?

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · First Analysis

Thank you, Chris. Good evening, everyone. I will begin today's call with a summary of our third quarter results on Slide 3 and provide a brief commentary on the progress we are making with respect to our strategic goals. Then our CFO, Rick Sunderland, will discuss our financial results and provide perspective on our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2014. At American Public University System, overall net course registrations declined 5% in the third quarter of 2014 compared to the prior year period. This was driven by an 11% decline in net course registrations by new students. As expected, net course registrations by students using Department of Defense voluntary Tuition Assistance programs, also called TA, declined 11% year-over-year, driven by a 16% decline in net course registrations by new students using TA. We believe ongoing confusion over TA eligibility and changes in administration of the TA program may have adversely impacted enrollment of military students at AMU during the quarter. That said, we continue to believe that American Military University enjoys a strong leadership position in the military community and that the fundamental needs for higher education within the U.S. Military community remain largely intact, including the use of education benefits as a recruitment tool, requirements for educational attainment to advance within the military and the need for well-educated fighting force. We believe net course registrations by students using Federal Student Aid were adversely impacted by the challenging competitive environment in higher education, as well as by our efforts to transition advertising away from traditional mass media while increasing our focus on strategic relationships in other channels in order to improve our quality mix of students. In the third quarter of 2014, net course registrations by students using Federal Student Aid decreased 6% year-over-year, driven by a 14% decline…

Richard W. Sunderland

Analyst · First Analysis

Thank you, Wally. Onto Slide 5. American Public Education third quarter 2014 consolidated financial results include a 4% increase in revenue to $84.7 million compared to $81.8 million in the prior year period. The increase in revenue was due to the inclusion of Hondros College of Nursing, or our Hondros segment, which was acquired on November 1, 2013, and therefore not included in the prior year period. Hondros earned revenue of $7.5 million in the third quarter of 2014. In the third quarter, our APEI segment revenue declined to $77.2 million from $81.8 million, a decrease of 6% compared to the prior year period. This decline in revenue was the result of a year-over-year decrease in net course registrations at APUS. As previously discussed, we believe that the volatility and softness in our Military/TA enrollment is, in part, related to marketplace confusion over changes to TA eligibility, as well as to other administrative changes in the Military/TA program. In addition, we believe the weakness we are experiencing in FSA enrollment is largely related to increased competition and by our effort to transition advertising away from traditional mass media while increasing our focus on strategic relationships and other channels in order to improve our quality mix of students. In the quarter, on a consolidated basis, our cost and expenses increased 9% to $70.1 million compared to $64.3 million in the prior year period. The increase was due to the inclusion of the results of our Hondros segment, which was partially offset by a decrease in expenses in our APEI segment as a result of lower net course registrations and lower payroll cost. Overall, our margins were impacted by a decline in our APEI segment operating margin and the inclusion of our Hondros segment in the 2014 period. Our Hondros segment has…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Corey Greendale with First Analysis.

Corey Greendale - First Analysis Securities Corporation, Research Division

Analyst · First Analysis

So I want to dig into the guidance a little bit. So the fact that you're guiding to a better new student outcome in Q4 than in Q3, which market -- which of your end markets, is that tied to and do you expect an improvement in either FSA or TA?

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · First Analysis

Well, I think year-over-year, we are expecting a slight improvement in TA because we lost TA registrations in October a year ago. So if you take that into account, I'd say that removing -- just ballparking the TA students that we lost in October, we're actually guiding to a slight negative for the quarter.

Richard W. Sunderland

Analyst · First Analysis

That's right. I agree.

Corey Greendale - First Analysis Securities Corporation, Research Division

Analyst · First Analysis

That is helpful. And then the fact that -- I know historically you had sort of drawn a line in the sand and said you were committing to sales and promotion not being more than 20% of revenue. I think this was the first time it had a 21% handle. Can you just comment on that and whether you think given the competitive environment, you think it makes sense to be raising that number in order to generate more enrollment?

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · First Analysis

Actually, no, we're trying to stick with 20%. We did have some creative ideas in our marketing team for targeted spend for quality students. And so we decided to spend that money and that put us a little bit over. But we're still trying to hold fast to roughly 20%.

Richard W. Sunderland

Analyst · First Analysis

Right, I would add to that, that as we came through the first and second quarter, we were talking about increased levels of spending in S&P. And we didn't and quite hit those numbers, which caused some outperformance in those earlier quarters. So there was a bit of catch-up happening in the third quarter. It wasn't the majority of the change sequentially, but it was a piece of it.

Corey Greendale - First Analysis Securities Corporation, Research Division

Analyst · First Analysis

Okay. And then in the FSA space, when you talk about increased competition, I think everybody that follows the space and follows you is aware that the competitive environment has been getting more competitive. Is that -- are you seeing something different now than you were a couple quarters ago? And where do you think the increased competition is coming from, specifically?

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · First Analysis

Well, I think as we continue to try to target a higher quality mix of new students based on demographics, I think we're seeing our primary competition being the increased availability of fully online programs offered by public institutions. That's really the differential. I mean, that's our price point. We're really not priced with most of the other folks in this sector.

Corey Greendale - First Analysis Securities Corporation, Research Division

Analyst · First Analysis

No, I understand. And the last one I have for you is on Hondros with the changes in year-over-year growth in the new students growth rate. How should we think about the sustainable growth rate, the long-term sustainable growth rate in that business in terms of new students and total enrollment?

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · First Analysis

Harry?

Harry T. Wilkins

Analyst · First Analysis

Well, again, we'd shy away from giving guidance beyond the next quarter, especially in today's environment. But what really key to growth of the fourth quarter is we rolled out evening programs at our 2 campuses, 2 of our 4 campuses, the ones in Cleveland and the 1 in Columbus. And we were -- we had really good results. So we plan to roll out evening classes at the remaining campuses throughout next year, and right now we're only offering the LPN program in the evenings. We hope to roll out APN programs in the evenings next year also at all 4 campuses. So I think that's going to be a key to growth. And then we expanded our -- we got a really good opportunity in Cleveland. The University of Phoenix closed down a Cleveland campus, which was right down the street from our old campus that we had outgrown, and we were able to double the size of our space in Cleveland. I think that's going to -- I think Cleveland is going to be a real opportunity for us at Hondros. We were a little bit limited by our facilities prior to July 1. We incurred a little bit more cost with the new lease, but we really like that facility. I think it's going to be a good spot for us. So I'm really -- we're really encouraged with the opportunity in Hondros. Nursing is a really great career. We think there's a tremendous shortage of nurses right now and projected to be for the next 5 years to 10 years. And we think we can fill a need and educate nurses. And we're very optimistic about the ability to grow Hondros long term and short term.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Jason Anderson with Stifel. Jason P. Anderson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division: On the -- I just want to touch off on the guidance on total, up pretty good there in 4Q in your guidance. But you -- and you obviously allude to the prior year comp. Is there anything other going into that? Or is there any benefit of persistence or retention help there?

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · Jason Anderson with Stifel

I think if you look at our third quarter numbers, you can see some improvements in persistence, particularly when you look at the difference between where the total net is versus the new net. And we, as I stated, we continue to have all hands on deck initiative related to improving retention from the staff to the faculty, and so there's some of that in there. But I also think that we don't anticipate a TA stoppage like we had a year ago. Jason P. Anderson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division: Okay. And then should -- would it make sense to think that's going to continue your -- kind of the gap there between -- some of the gap difference between your start trends and your total in the persistence improvement there?

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · Jason Anderson with Stifel

I think it's difficult to predict, particularly when you're an open enrollment school. It's just -- it's much more likely predicting persistence when you have a minimum GPA and a minimum SAT score and open enrollment does -- it could vary by quarter. So it's tough. Jason P. Anderson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division: Great. And then on the Hondros start guidance, how much of that is from the evening -- the introduction evening classes? Does that make up a good portion of that growth?

Harry T. Wilkins

Analyst · Jason Anderson with Stifel

Yes, it was about half and half. And I really don't want to get into -- again, that's projection for the fourth quarter. I don't want to start a press thing where we're going to start giving guidance by specific campus or by specific programs going forward. But it was about half and half.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Adrienne Colby with Deutsche Bank.

Adrienne Colby - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Adrienne Colby with Deutsche Bank

Your guidance for the fourth quarter points to sequentially weaker operating margins, which is a little surprising, given that fourth quarter is typically seasonally strong. I'm just wondering if there's anything else we should be thinking about other than the higher instructional costs at Hondros?

Richard W. Sunderland

Analyst · Adrienne Colby with Deutsche Bank

I think what you're seeing is there could be some higher expenditures in technology in the fourth quarter, which would drive the line on the P&L G&A.

Adrienne Colby - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Adrienne Colby with Deutsche Bank

Great. And I know that in June, I think you added a second collection agency with some thoughts that, that would help on the bad debt expense line. Have we started to see some benefits there? Or is that something that's going to be more visible in 2015?

Richard W. Sunderland

Analyst · Adrienne Colby with Deutsche Bank

I think it's too early to tell. It just started up in kind of the June time frame. It's too early to predict the impact that's going -- obviously, the expectation is it would provide benefit.

Adrienne Colby - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Adrienne Colby with Deutsche Bank

Okay. And then I guess in regards to Tuition Assistance. I know that you commented last quarter that expectations were that the budgets will be stable next year. Just wondering if you could comment if most of the branches finished the year with budget surplus for education benefits, and any color you have around the new budget amounts that are coming in, and maybe October registration trends?

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · Adrienne Colby with Deutsche Bank

We won't know how the branches did, whether they had surpluses or deficits until the -- it's usually the February CCME meeting that the service heads reveal that data. I would just tell you that our gut thinking is that September was slower than what we expected, and we think that, that was probably due to budgetary issues, but there were no announcements. And with the sequester, there's less transparency than we've had in the past with information from DoD.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

Jeffrey M. Silber - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst · Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets

Just a couple questions on Hondros. What is the likelihood and maybe you can give us some indication of when do you think you'll be providing those programs outside the state of Ohio?

Harry T. Wilkins

Analyst · Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets

Well, first of all, we have to get approval for our change of ownership in the Department of Ed which we have not yet to receive, even though it's been close to a year. We certainly expect to receive that. The case management team in Chicago is a little burdened right now with other change of ownership applications because of the turmoil that's taking place with some of our competition selling a lot of campuses. But once they get around to approving our application, then we can consider expansion. Until then, we really can't expand.

Jeffrey M. Silber - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst · Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets

Are you having discussions in any states? I know you can't officially do it, but I'm assuming you're looking at least?

Harry T. Wilkins

Analyst · Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets

We always look at opportunities in other states, but I really don't want to talk about it on the call right now.

Jeffrey M. Silber - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst · Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets

Okay, I understand. I'm sorry about that. And then just a couple numbers questions. Is it possible just for a modeling perspective, can we look at 4Q '13 Hondros new student enrollment and total student enrollment? Is that something you can provide for us?

Harry T. Wilkins

Analyst · Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets

Yes, I mean, we only owned the company for half of that period. So we -- I guess we can comparatively do that. I don't have the numbers right now. But [indiscernible]...

Jeffrey M. Silber - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst · Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets

All right. I'll try to get that...

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets

You'll definitely get it next quarter when we announce the actual results.

Richard W. Sunderland

Analyst · Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets

Right, because you'll have the year-over-year growth, so you'll know what the part of it was.

Jeffrey M. Silber - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst · Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets

Okay, I'll try to get that offline.

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets

Yes, and I was going to say we announced it last -- I mean, the fourth quarter of '13 was announced. So you should have that data from a year ago, roughly a year ago. But again, we didn't own the company while they were doing the recruiting and the admissions for that period.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Jeff Volshteyn with JPMorgan. Jeffrey Y. Volshteyn - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Following the Republican win in Congress, what are your thoughts around the impact for budgets for DoD and VA going forward?

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · Jeff Volshteyn with JPMorgan

I would say that I don't consider myself a political expert. I think there's a lot of problems funding our budget, particularly if Republicans would like to cut taxes. So I would tell you that I'm not looking for anything to change anytime soon. I'm thinking that things will stay as they are. Jeffrey Y. Volshteyn - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay, that's helpful. I might have missed it in your prepared remarks. Did you give color on persistence for -- in the third quarter for civilian students and military students and how they compare?

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · Jeff Volshteyn with JPMorgan

We didn't. But if you look at where we're down on new students versus where we are on total, we've improved somewhat in retention more than you would have predicted. And we can't attribute it to any 1 thing because we have about 4 different initiatives going on from faculty initiatives to staff and advising initiatives, and it's really a -- to actually marketing which is trying to recruit a better quality mix. So we're trying to do a lot of things. We did talk about the pilot population using our Fidelis ClearPath product. And our intention is to expand that because those students who, admittedly, are volunteers and not all asked to go into that product. But the students who are using that product are getting better grades or signing up for courses in advance and appear to be getting good counseling. So we're optimistic that, that and other initiatives are going to help us continue to improve retention going forward. Jeffrey Y. Volshteyn - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Right, but are you able to break it out between civilian and military in any way?

Harry T. Wilkins

Analyst · Jeff Volshteyn with JPMorgan

No. I mean, we could probably, if we went back a year, so we don't have that data prepared. And we'll consider it for the next call. But the difficulty with the military are they always -- forget sequester, they've always taken much -- far fewer classes per year than our FSA students, at least the good FSA students, primarily because the military will fund 1 class a year. And we actually recommend that our new TA students take 1 class the first time so they can determine whether online is going to work for them or not. FSA students, unless they're grad students, if they're undergrads, have to do more than 1 class just to be half time. And so it's a difficult calculation to make. But we'll see if we can provide some color on our next call. Jeffrey Y. Volshteyn - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: That's helpful. Last question for me. Tax rate, that is implied in the fourth quarter guidance and perhaps further on in 2015?

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · Jeff Volshteyn with JPMorgan

Rick, you want to talk about the tax rate?

Richard W. Sunderland

Analyst · Jeff Volshteyn with JPMorgan

Right. So we saw a spike in the state rates -- states, several states changed how they calculate apportionment, or require us to calculate apportionment. In terms of the go-forward rate, I would keep it very close to about the same as what we're seeing -- what we reported in the third quarter.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Peter Appert with Piper Jaffray.

John D. Crowther - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division

Analyst · Peter Appert with Piper Jaffray

Yes, you have John Crowther on for Peter. Just 1 quick question here. As you're talking about a little bit more competitive in the FSA channel, but you also talked about part of that is advertising and trying to get a higher quality mix of students in there. Just wondering if you can kind of, as you pointed out, the price point doesn't make you that much comparable to some of the other for-profit peers. But if you could talk a little bit about your marketing campaigns to increase that mix and if you're sort of changing the marketing message at all here recently?

Wallace E. Boston

Analyst · Peter Appert with Piper Jaffray

Well, I would like to change the marketing message and just be pretty blunt on cost, except every time we do focus groups, that doesn't resonate so well. This is -- higher ed is one of those odd-ball markets where sometimes cost is perceived as a negative and reversing that statement that the higher priced you are, the more -- the higher quality someone thinks you are. So we will continue to try to look at ways to position our affordability because we're passionately committed to it. Meanwhile, as far as our targeting goes, we're looking, without giving away the secret sauce, so to speak, we're looking for areas with higher income and the right demographic mix and specifically, targeting that not just on our TV and radio ads, which aren't a huge part of our business. But certainly, a piece of it and coordinating that with our Internet ads, which can be coordinated by zip code as well.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And at this time, I show that we have no questions in queue. I will turn the call back over to Chris Symanoskie for any closing comments.

Christopher L. Symanoskie

Analyst

Thank you, operator. That will conclude our call for today. We wish to thank all of today's callers for participating and for your interest in American Public Education. Thank you, and have a great evening.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may all disconnect. Good day, everyone.