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American Public Education, Inc. (APEI)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 10, 2015

$57.66

+0.52%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the American Public Education, Inc Third Quarter 2015 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instruction will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions].As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now like to turn the conference over to your host Chris Symanoskie, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

Chris Symanoskie

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good evening, and welcome to the American Public Education conference call to discuss financial and operating results for the third quarter of 2015. Presentation materials for today's call are available in the webcast section of our Investor Relations website and are included as an exhibit in our current report on Form 8-K filed earlier today. Please note that statements made in this conference call regarding American Public Education or its subsidiaries that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements based on current expectations, assumptions, estimates and projections about American Public Education and the industry. These forward statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual future events or results to differ materially from such statements. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as anticipate, believe, seek, could, estimate, expect, intend, may, should, will and would. These forward-looking statements include, without limitations, statements regarding expected growth, amounts in nature of anticipated charges, expected registration and enrollments, expected revenues, expected earnings and plans with respect to recent and future investments and partnerships. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including the risk factors described in the Risk Factors section and elsewhere in the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC and the company's other SEC filings. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements for any reason, even if new information becomes available or other events occur in the future. On the call today we will also discuss certain non-GAAP measures and outlook for the fourth quarter of 2015. Although these non-GAAP measures are not intended to be substitute for GAAP results, we believe they will allow investors to better compare results to prior year period. This evening, it's my pleasure to introduce Dr. Wallace Boston, our President and CEO; and Rick Sunderland, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Also available for questions today is Harry Wilkins, Executive Vice President, Chief Development Officer and CEO of Hondros College of Nursing. Now at this time, I'll turn the call over to Dr. Boston.

Wallace Boston

Analyst · First Analysis. Your line is open

Thanks, Chris. Good evening, everyone. In today's call, I'll provide a summary of our recent results and commentary on our strategic priorities. Then our CFO, Rick Sunderland will discuss our financial results and provide perspective on the company's outlook for the fourth quarter of 2015. Before we begin, I want to take a moment thank Harry Wilkins for his service to our company. Harry recently informed that he will retire in December from his current role as Chief Executive Officer of Hondros College of Nursing and Chief Development Officer of American Public Education. Harry's involvement with APUS and APE goes back to 2001 when he was hired as a consultant. Harry was instrumental in helping the company receive private equity funding in 2001 and 2002, helped us attain approval for participation in a Federal Student Aid program and he served as a Board member through 2006. Harry became our CFO in 2007 and ably guided us to an IPO later that year to Sarbox compliance and to secondary offerings in 2008. He led the team that identified in a core Hondros College of Nursing and he led Hondros as a CEO since November of 2013. More importantly to me, Harry introduced and recommended me to APUS in September of 2002 and two of us have worked together since that time. I want to thank Harry for his service to our companies. I wish him well on his retirement and I appreciate his willingness to work with us as we transition to new leadership in Hondros. It has been a wonderful experience working with you Harry. In the third quarter of 2015, overall net course registration at APUS decreased in 6% and net course registration by new students declined 19% year-over-year. The overall decline was primarily driven a 35% decrease in…

Rick Sunderland

Analyst · First Analysis. Your line is open

Thank you, Wally. On the Slide 5. American Public Education's third quarter 2015 consolidated financial results include a 9.9% decline in revenue to $76.3 million, compared to $84.7 million in the prior-year period. Both our API segment and our HCON segment reported revenues, declines in revenues when compared to the prior year period. In the third quarter our API segment revenue decreased 10.4% to $69.2 million compared to $77.2 million in the prior year period. The decline in API segment revenue is due to the decline in net course registrations. HCON segment revenue decreased 5.3% to $7.1 million in the third quarter of 2015 compared to $7.5 million in the same period of 2014. The decline in HCON segment revenue is primarily due to decreased enrollment in HCON's ADN program and the addition of evening and weekend classes which is resulted in students taking fewer total courses each academic term as they pursue their studies on a part time basis. On a consolidated basis, costs and expenses decreased 6.1% to $65.8 million, compared to $70.1 million in the prior-year period. The decrease was primarily due to a decrease in selling and promotional expense in our API segment. On a consolidated basis, operating margins decreased to 13.9% in the third quarter of 2015 as compared to 17.2% in the prior-year period. The year-over-year decline in operating margin is due to our revenue decreasing at a rate greater than a decrease in cost and expenses. For the third quarter, consolidated instructional costs and services expense or ICS as a percent of revenue increased to 38.2%, compared to 36.2% in the prior-year period. The increase is due to our API segment’s ICS expenses declining at a rate less than a decline in revenue. At APUS, the cost of course materials continued to decline…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Corey Greendale of First Analysis. Your line is open.

Ken

Analyst · First Analysis. Your line is open

Yes, thank you. This is Ken on for Corey. So it sounds like the international enrollment initiatives are kind being sunset at this point. Do you think you could comment a bit more on that and what's kind of driving this decision?

Wallace Boston

Analyst · First Analysis. Your line is open

Well, I don't -- we still relieving our enrollment open and what we are really not doing is opening new countries. We found when we went to utilize agents that by utilizing agents we needed to be compliant in every country where there was an agent. And so the country by country compliance given that our tuition is low while that would seem to be attractive, the cost of doing it didn't appear to provide us with a return. So while on the good news side is we have some partnerships in place and we have legal agreements indicating that we will be in compliance with regulations of those countries, we decided that this time not to add new countries.

Ken

Analyst · First Analysis. Your line is open

Okay. And let's see another question I had. Do you feel that your tuition increase in July had any effect on your enrollment so far?

Wallace Boston

Analyst · First Analysis. Your line is open

We don't know of any negative impact on our enrollment. We did note in our Q that with the July increase that only 20% of our students actually receive the increase because we grand father our tuition rates of students using tuition assistance as well as military spouses and veteran.

Rick Sunderland

Analyst · First Analysis. Your line is open

I would also point out that was effective for registration after July 1. And so it really didn't affect the entirety of the third quarter.

Ken

Analyst · First Analysis. Your line is open

Sure, okay, that's helpful. And maybe just one last one for me. Just any color that you could give us just on changes in the competitive environment that you have observed might be helpful.

Wallace Boston

Analyst · First Analysis. Your line is open

Well, I think I guess there are couples of big things. First of all, the cost of buying lead related to online education has gone up -- these are leads through Google and Yahoo and other sources has gone up 20% a year for the last two years indicating more people bidding on them and bidding on those terms. And at the same time, we have seen a decline in our conversion rate. So to me I think that we have the same group of internal people buying those leads at a bottom in the past. We've judiciously thrown away leads that don't work for us. Either they cost too much on a net student basis or they are just ineffective. And we managed to get our leads up but with our applications are down because the conversions are down. That indicates to me there is just many more options as well as something we did mention but I have seen mentioned several times is that when the economy starts to improve, working adult tend to not go back to school.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Jeff Silber of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Jeff Silber

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thanks so much. You address the competitive landscape a little bit earlier but I just want to drill down one specific area. I think it was about month or so ago the military put one of the larger company, one of the larger core profit schools I guess on probation because of some issues in terms of they recruiting -- I know it is early but have you seen any impact of that move on your leads or potential enrollment? Thanks.

Wallace Boston

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Jeff, not anything that we have seen and could attribute to that. We've seen a pick up in our TA registrations but we believe that's attributable to the start of a new fiscal year, so our returning TA student zone only declined by 2% this quarter which was basically a 7% improvement over the quarter before but I think that lot of that was our retention initiatives and then what we are seeing so far particularly in November, December for TA students is good registration rates but we think that's because there is no potential knock on wood of a budget problem at least through this presidency.

Jeff Silber

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. Then a quick question on Hondros and your guidance for new student enrollment to be down by 11% in the fourth quarter is a substantial deceleration from where you have been trending. Is there anything specific? Is it just tough comps or is there something else going on?

Harry Wilkins

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Yes. This is Harry. And we actually were up a little bit with our LPN students; the LPN program which is kind of the way we are building Hondros is that the LPN program leads to progression to the ADN program, leads to the BSN program. What we've seen is a large decline in BSN students, new BSN students and I think it seems like we had a big backlog of alumni that were interested in the BSN program, and I believe we've gone through that now. We haven't still -- we haven't had enough ADN graduates yet go on to the BSN program. So we had a rather large almost 30% decline in BSN enrollments for new students in the fall. We don't know yet whether that's long-term trend or just a blip. That really contributed -- we also increased the requirements need to graduate and help ADN program to matriculate into AVN program and we think that's cause a little bit of a delay and some students who like to matriculate into the AVN program been able to do that and we thought we needed to make the changes in the program to improve the quality of the program. So the decline was really in ADN and BSN students. The LPN program which is our -- a real key to us going forward actually increased a bit. So that's what cause and hopefully that will work its way through the process and those increase they will end student will go on keep get additional degree.

Jeff Silber

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

All right. Thanks for that. And just some numbers questions really quick. Your selling and promotional expenses declined pretty dramatically. I think you said is because of decrease in advertising expenses. Is this kind of new normal rate we should be looking for going forward or whether there are some timing issues?

Wallace Boston

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

No. I think we tried to explain Jeff that while we are targeting advertising specifically so talking about radio and TV advertising, we are also looking at whether or not in the markets we are doing that advertising. We are getting acceptable conversion rate. I think once we can pick up the conversion rates in those markets, we would actually spend more. So it is just a matter of tinkering with our targeting and where it beginning to work we will spend more. And if it is not working we are just going to hold back.

Jeff Silber

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. And then you mentioned the savings because of the employee realignment. Which line item should we expect to see that in next year?

Rick Sunderland

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

It is across line.

Jeff Silber

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay and then just one more and then I'll jump back in the queue. Your EPS guidance for the current quarter, what tax rate and share count that you are anticipating? Thanks.

Rick Sunderland

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Tax rate is about 38, share count probably 16, yes; I would say it is about flat with where it is. It will be outside, we are still repurchasing share.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I am showing no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back to Chris Symanoskie for closing remarks.

Chris Symanoskie

Analyst

Great. Thank you, operator. That would conclude our call for today. We wish to thank all of today's callers for participating. And for your interest in American Public Education. Thank you and have a great evening.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude today's program. You may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day.