Joseph F. Puishys
Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Your line is open
Well, as Jim said, our largest business doesn’t - I'll give you an example, as you mentioned if we went up $15 million award in our services business, $15 million goes in the backlog on one day and it might take a year of revenue. So over the course of the year, it has an average backlog impact of $7.5 million over that time period. Same thing for our large windows business, when you look at the glass business, our largest business, if they have a $4 million win, unfortunately we don't put $4 million to backlog, because we don't have a legally binding purchase order for that yet. We'll get a PO for the first four floors of the building for $300,000, that will go into backlog and come out within eight weeks and then, and we might get five to 10 purchase orders for that particular project. So even though the backlog impact of Viracon is low, we have great visibility for what the total award is worth. It’s just the way it's done. So I would like to mention, we have four levels of visibility to our future work, one that we highlight and discuss publicly to one non-GAAP metric we use is booked backlog, $445 million. We also have awards that are in hand yet we do not have a signed contract, so it's called contract in review, they virtually all enter backlog within the next 90 to 120 days, there are lot of negotiations on our contracts in our long lead time services business. You've heard me say repeatedly, we never would sign the first version of a contract that comes across our desk. It typically calls for us to be responsible for anything that goes wrong in the world including weather. It takes a lot of work to get the contracts the way we want them. That's a contracts and backlog. We have a third level of visibility, it's project we've been awarded, whether its verbally or we're working with one GC and if the general contractor wins award that's our business. So, we know a contract is coming, we put into the win column and it probably will materialize in the backlog in the next six to 12 months. And then the fourth level of visibility is the least concrete, but by far the largest, it's work we're bidding on and when we bid work we know what our probability of success is. Of course we bid work where we're at the long shot and we score that in the low probability, but we also bid a lot of work we know where there are likely winner if the project goes forward. By far that is the largest category so we try to weight that. And when we combine those four levels of visibility we have a fairly accurate position of what our revenue potential will be in the next 12 months to 24 months.