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Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN)

Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Fri, May 8, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. 2020 First Quarter Analyst and Investor Earnings Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions]I would now like to turn the conference over to Christopher Jarratt, Vice Chair of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. Please go ahead, Mr. Jarratt.

Christopher Jarratt

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us this morning for our 2020 first quarter earnings conference call. And sorry about the slight delay getting started. As mentioned, my name is Chris Jarratt and I am the Vice Chair of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. And joining me on the call today are Ian Robertson, our Chief Executive Officer and David Bronicheski, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining on the call and participating in his first quarterly earnings call is Arun Banskota, who joined our organization as President in February of this year.To accompany our earnings call today, we have a supplemental webcast presentation which I hope you are able to access from our website, algonquinpowerandutilities.com. Our audited financial statements and management discussion and analysis are also available on the website as well as on SEDAR and EDGAR.Before continuing the call, we would like to remind you that our discussion during the call will include certain forward-looking information including but not limited to expectations regarding future earnings and capital expenditures, as well as potential impact of Covid-19. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. And at the end of this call, Amelia will read a legal notice regarding both forward-looking information and non-GAAP financial measures. Please also refer to our most recent MD&A for additional information.On this call this morning Ian will start with a summary of the strategic achievements for Q1 2020, and Arun will speak about the impact of Covid-19 on our operations. David will follow-up with the Q1 financial highlights and then Ian will conclude with some strategic outlets of the business and some concluding remarks. We then open the lines up for questions and as usual I’d ask you to restrict your questions to two and then re-queue if you have additional questions.And with that, I will turn things over to Ian to talk about Q1.

Ian Robertson

Analyst

Thanks Chris. And going back to old-school I’m going to be referencing slides 4, in that slide deck. I welcome everyone who’s been able to take the time to join us today. But before I begin with my formal remarks, regarding the quarter I did want to touch on what’s likely on everyone’s mind, which is how we’re navigating through the impact of this Covid-19 pandemic.And so hopping to slide 5. I point out the utilities, such as we provide, are an essential service and they do play a unique role in maintaining the fabric of our society, people need to light and heat their homes, and need drinking and sewer water services. And we provide these services to over 800,000 customers, our commitment we take incredibly seriously, we recognize that people are counting on us more than ever right now.While the majority of our customers continue to regularly pay their bills, in a move to help lessen any potential financial hardship that the financial - that the Covid-19 pandemic is causing for our customers, we’ve temporarily waved late payment charges, suspended collection activities and delayed service disconnection for non-payment of bills across our service territories.We have also recently made a $500,000 donation to support our communities during the Covid-19 pandemic, including our low-income individuals, food banks and first responders. Additionally, we’re helping our local Covid heroes by donating excess Personal Protective Equipment, or PPE as it’s referred, by donating already 5,000 masks, and we have plans for providing an additional 20,000 masks in the next few weeks.I was gratified to see how quickly out pre-existing business continuity plans were updated to address Covid specific issues, and then rapidly executed in each of our key business units. The team swung into action as we seamlessly transitioned to a work from…

Arun Banskota

Analyst

Thank you, Ian and good morning, everyone. I’m pleased to participate in my first quarterly earnings call with the investor community. And I look forward to meeting with all of you in person in the months ahead as these Covid-19 restrictions start to ease. My focus since joining the organization it’s natural to meet with as many of our colleagues as possible. And come up to speeding all the operational development, financial and corporate matters across the company.At Algonquin, safety is more than a priority; it is part of who we are. In our response to evolving Covid crisis, the health and safety of not only our employees but also our customers was front and centered in the actions we took. And the protocols we put in place. You can imagine the increased potential for an incident with all the distractions around us at the moment. We have therefore double down on our focus on safety. And I'm gratified to report that our employees have risen to the challenge and continued our enviable safety record.As a business providing mission-critical energy and water services to our customers, we have existing business continuity plans to ensure that we continue to provide those services to our customers. Or be able to recover as quickly as possible in the event we are faced with events such as hurricanes, floods, tornados, fires et cetera. These business continuity plans cover every element of our business. And all the processes required delivering these mission-critical services.As soon as we got visibility into Covid-19, we set up a war room approach and started analyzing our BCPs for immediate actions. And then divided these BCPs to take share account for longer-term scenarios. Given this intense focus, we are fortunate to report that we have not had any issues in the…

David Bronicheski

Analyst

Thanks Arun. And we’re now going to be on Slide 9 and moving to Slide 10, and good morning to everybody.In the first quarter of 2020, we can summarize the operating results that we’ve experienced in one word, weather. Our adjusted EBITDA came in at $242.2 million, and well up 5% from the previous year when we reported $231.5 million, it was below our expectations due to weather. But other than for that, overall our various utilities and non-regulated generating stations, generally performed in line with our expectations, and as Arun mentioned the quarter was not materially impacted by Covid-19.Diving into our Regulated Services Group, the business unit delivered $170.2 million on operating profit in Q1, 2020, compared to $161.2 million in the prior year, as lower consumption due to warmer weather, was partially offset by cost savings. Results also benefited from the first full quarter contribution of New Brunswick Gas and St. Lawrence Gas, as these acquisitions closed at various times in Q4 of 2019.So well ahead of last here, the results were below expectations due to a 12% reduction in heating degree days. On a year-over-year basis our Renewable Energy Group delivered solid results in Q1, 2020, still over an $87.2 million of operating profit, compared to $83.1 million in 2019. The increase of adjusted EBITDA is related to our investment in Atlantica, as well as increased production from our newer wind and solar facilities. Nevertheless, our renewable energy group also experienced weather-related impacts that resulted in the production being 94% of our long-term average expected production. Our adjusted EPS came in at $0.19, which was in line with the prior year; again, most of the variants were due to weather.Moving onto Slide 11. I’d like to turn my attention to the measures we have taken within our…

Ian Robertson

Analyst

Thanks David, and we are now on Slide 12, moving to slide 13, and before I close out our prepared remarks this morning, I did want to give a quick update on our five-year strategic plan, and then, as usual, open up the lines for questions.We do remain committed to our five-year capital investment program, which projects $9.2 billion to be spent across our two business groups, which will grow our asset base to close to $17 billion by the end of 2024. The total growth thesis has not been impacted by the challenges currently being experienced due to Covid-19, and Algonquin remains well-positioned both in the near term and the long term to continue executing on our long-term capital plan.With respect to our major renewable energy project for this year, I'm pleased to report that they are considered essential infrastructure in the jurisdictions in which they're located, and therefore construction has been proceeding despite shelter-in-place orders. All of these sites’ construction activities have basically proceeded substantially in accordance with the planned schedules. Our three wind projects for the customer savings plan in the Midwest have proceeded substantially within the normal schedules, as well as construction for our Sugar Creek project.And with respect to our Maverick Creek project, in Texas, we're currently anticipating that delays and deliveries of components, due to overseas manufacturing shutdowns and some similar supply chain disruptions, may cause the placed in-service date for a small number, 16 of the 127 total wind turbines to slip into early 2021.But not withstanding such delay, we still expect all of our projects to fully qualify for a 100% of PTC's, Production Tax Credits, under Section 45 of the Internal Revenue Code. And this will occur in either in reliance on meeting the continuous efforts requirements as described within the…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]Our first question is from Rupert Merer with National Bank. Mr. Merer your line is open.

RupertMerer

Analyst

Thank you, good morning everyone morning. So you have - looks like a positive outcome for the rate case at Empire District, can you talk us through what's included in that rate case, as far as ROE, and give a little more color on the decoupling provisions and when they may start?

IanRobertson

Analyst

Yes. Well, I'll start by saying it's sort of a black box settlement, if you want to think of it that way, but we were pleased that the outcome is generally in accordance with our expectations from a long-term model. I think more relevantly, given the circumstances, is the first-time inclusion of decoupling mechanisms, as you mentioned, prior to implementation of Senate bill 564 a couple of years back, a decoupling was just not part of the regulatory landscape in Missouri.And it now is, and so this is going to be our first decoupling. And it's an important one, you know, candidly it takes that 50% decoupling up to close to 80%, when you add in the smaller Granite State. One of the, I'll just say, uniqueness of the decoupling in Missouri is that it's broad-based volumetric decoupling for all of our residential and small commercial customers.The larger commercial customers and industrial customers, who historically have been, I'll say, weather insulated because just the nature of their usage are not decoupled. And that's kind of - that's one of the reasons why, if you assume that those customers are decoupled weather-wise it actually would take that 80% up to 94%. So, huge win, from our perspective, in changing the - I'll say the risk profile of the business. Rupert, I don't know if that's kind of the color that you're looking for, in terms of the Empire rate case?

RupertMerer

Analyst

Yes and when would the decoupling start, will it capture any of the impacts you're seeing from Covid-19?

IanRobertson

Analyst

Well, is it not an interesting debate that took place between ourselves and the PSC? Right now it's scheduled to start on June 15th. So, while we were obviously arguing for an earlier start. And I'll say candidly as we were negotiating the settlement agreement with staff, they were arguing for a later start. And we kind of settled on June 15th. So, as we think about our Q2 results. I know a portion of those will fall into this, I'll say newly more broadly decoupled world.

RupertMerer

Analyst

And then if I look at Missouri or other jurisdictions and you have this impact of roughly $3 million a month from Covid-19 are there other mechanisms to recover? Any revenues that may be lost from lower volumes related to Covid-19?

IanRobertson

Analyst

Sure, this is obviously an evolving regulatory landscape. Right now three of our jurisdictions Oklahoma, Texas in California are very specific, tracking account mechanisms that have been put in place to track increased costs or lost revenues associated with this that this whole situation. And in many states and I would expect the rest of our states to ultimately follow suit.Many states are treating this kind of in the same way as we might otherwise treat a major storm. And that these costs would be aggregated in tracking accounts recovered over time. So, I think the regulatory jurisdictions are recognizing, Rupert, that the world - this is, this kind of feels obviously unlike business as usual and many of the current mechanisms just - aren't appropriately set up for.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Sean Steuart with TD Securities. Mr. Stewart your line is open.

SeanSteuart

Analyst

Thanks, good morning, everyone. Couple questions, David, I'll start with, you've got a lot of incremental borrowing capacity here to I guess bridge the gap if some of the other capital raises you had targeted or compromised. And I'm just wondering if you can first of all let us know what the cost of that incremental $1.6 billion of borrowing capacity is if you do tap it? And if you can provide any context on the mandatory convert market right now, asset recycling opportunities, how those funding sources might be compromised in the current environment?

DavidBronicheski

Analyst

Sure, with respect to the provisions under the additional credit, the spreads are I'll say slightly wider than what we have in our existing credit facilities, but I'll say not materially so. So, it's really from our perspective very much in line with what -with the terms that we currently have. And we're certainly pleased with the support that we receive from syndicate that or syndicate on these I think is something like 12 different banks.And so we're quite pleased with the additional liquidity and accommodations they've provided us for that. With respect to the mandatories, I think pre-Covid it would have been our plan to move forward with mandatories earlier in the year probably than later. Right now what we're seeing in the market is heightened volatility and of course that heightened volatility then increases the cost of the mandatories.And so it's turned out that I'll say at this 10 seconds the mandatories aren't attractive. We have seen some early indications that there could be fine again in that there have been some mandatories that have got off but it's still not at the level we would like to see before we move forward with it. Like I said in my prepared remarks, we’ll be monitoring the markets closely over the course of the year.And I think the theme for us is going to be to move opportunistically depending on the market, the security that it kind of presents itself with the best opportunity and that could be in Canada, it could be the US. And we have a lot of different tools that we can avail ourselves of.

SeanSteuart

Analyst

Thanks for that context. And second question is Mr. Ian wondering if you can comment on the board shake-up at Atlantica. And updated thoughts for your investment in that?

IanRobertson

Analyst

Sure, and as a good CEO I'm going to deflect the question and turn it over to Chris Jarrett.

ChristopherJarratt

Analyst

Great. Okay. Thanks Ian. Well, yes, done. So just by way of background that there were four directors at Atlantica that were not reelected by the shareholders. So what Atlantica has a lot of stuff on the goal? We're in kind of an unprecedented time, so the remaining directors appointed new directors. And you've seen the bios and who those directors are. The high-level is they're all highly skilled, highly qualified, 25% are women of the total board now.So, I think we just see this as these a refresh of the board is just part of good governance but it doesn't really signify any dramatic change, there's no change in strategy. It's a great company and we see it in the same way. So, I don't think you should read too much into it that it's - that we're seeing Atlantica is any different than it was before. So, that's probably at the high level of what happened.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from David Quezada with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

DavidQuezada

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. My first question on the renewable power side of the business. I understand the US Treasury has come out with a letter suggesting an extension to the deadline to qualify for the PTC and ITC. And I realize that maverick is going to qualify for the 400% regardless but I'm wondering if any of your other prospective projects could see a benefit from some kind of extension there?

IanRobertson

Analyst

Well is it that - I totally agree isn't that cool. So, we obviously were on the front line, trying to do regulatory or legislative outreach to get this extension. And right now it looks like and it's unclear exactly how it is going to get proposed but Senator Grassley when he was interacting with the Treasury basically asked for a year extension to all of the projects and that will have some interesting and positive implications to projects that right now we had thought about being 2021 80% PTC projects. And so I think we had originally, I'll be candid had thought that it would probably only extend to projects that were fully in construction already, but if the relief is broader than that I agree with you it does have potential implications beyond just the project that were originally slated for 2020.Now the good news is and while that's upsize well, we were confident in the 2020 projects fully qualified for 100% PTCs. It's just so nice to take the pressure off of the team in terms of getting these projects done. People just will I'll say sleep easier. I don't know, if David, if that's kind of the insight that you're looking for.

DavidQuezada

Analyst

It is. That's great color. Thank you. And then maybe just kind of a follow-up on that topic. How are you seeing I guess demand in terms of counterparties for PPAs or power hedge agreements under the current environment?

IanRobertson

Analyst

Well, I'll say for the sake early to say. The good news is we're actually not trying to sign any right now. We have obviously projects that we are continuing to work on but it's not like anybody has pulled the plug on a negotiation that has been ongoing, which is obviously good. I think what is very interesting and maybe this is a broad commentary about - also the capital markets and maybe society in general we haven't seen people running away, if you will, from their ESG or sustainability linked objectives. And so therefore to the extent that investing in a renewable energy through a PPA made sense before. The good news is we're seeing that the world still thinks that makes sense going forward. So, David, I guess at this 10 seconds, we're not saying immediate impact and perhaps over the longer haul, we can't foresee that the market for C&I, PPA has been materially impacted.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Nelson Ng with RBC Capital Markets. Mr. Ng your line is open.

NelsonNg

Analyst

Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. The first question relates to the energy north rate case. I was just wondering whether you can clarify the status. So I thought our rate case is filed last year and it sounds like you're withdrawing it and filing a new one this summer. I was just wondering whether that like resets the clock in terms of timing and like or is there going to be a lot more additional information or a lot more additional items included in this summer filing.

IanRobertson

Analyst

Sure. Let me answer that one and I can sort of give you some more color to that one is in the current rules within New Hampshire, there needs to be two years of gap between rate cases. And while we were confident that that two-year period had elapsed, I think ultimately there was some debate with the staff as to whether the two years had originally elapsed and so we agreed to pull the rate case with the thesis of reactionary filing it in April. And really refiling it in exactly the same form, Nelson, so it wasn't - it wasn't about us can we throw more things into the rate case. It was really about just meeting this two-year requirement. Obviously, Covid-19 has stepped in and it's causing us to think of the data is now July rather than April.So does it an occasion of delay? Yes. Does that fundamentally change the risk or the context of the rate case? No. But I think could we have, I'll say fought that battle well. I'll say regulators are sort of like customs agents. There's nothing good will come out of you having an argument with them over some procedural points. And so I think we've out gracefully and we are going to resubmit basically the same rate case. I don't know if Nelson if that's kind of the color you're looking for. There is nothing nefarious or just associated with this other than just meeting this timing requirement.

NelsonNg

Analyst

Yes. That's answers my question. My next questions for - it's probably for Arun, but in terms of the - in terms of achieving at least $15 million of savings and can you guys give a bit more color on like where you're looking to achieve those savings? Whether it's from the underlying operations, head office? Whether it's for utilities where there's somewhat of a delay in rate cases? Can you just give a bit more color in those areas?

Arun Banskota

Analyst

Sure. Nelson, thank you. So in our 2020 guidance as you said we've assumed a decrease of what $15 million and it's really a bunch of things right. There are some things that are naturally reduced for example lower travel expenses, things of the sort and what higher - that the piece is not at the same level as before just because of the remote - work from home policies. But there's also other things like operating costs and it also focused on things like possibly pushing out some of the operational and maintenance extensions, but again we look at that very, very carefully to make sure that it doesn't impact anything safety, security, availability things of the sort.So it's really a bunch of different things that makes up that $15 million dollars.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Ryan Greenwald with Bank of America. Your line is open.

RyanGreenwald

Analyst

Good morning, guys. So if we could kind of go back to Empire and the settlement reached there recently. So under the stipulation the revenue requirement it's being held as a regulatory asset until the next rate review in 2021. So how are you guys kind of framing earned ROE there in the interim?

IanRobertson

Analyst

Well, I'll let David answer it since I have an engineering degree and he has - is a CPA, but that will stop me from giving you at least - from our perspective I think the GAAP financial statements are unchanged by it. And obviously, there's I'll say liquidity issue and that you have to fund that deferred revenue but in the context of ROE and the way regulatory assets work, obviously, you get to earn on your whack on any deferred revenue. That's just the way it works but David if you maybe want to add some more color to that.

DavidBronicheski

Analyst

Sure. I mean from a financial statement point of view it'll be, I'll say transparent. You won't actually see any difference in our earnings as a result of that. We'll recognize that. It will show up as a regulatory asset on the balance sheet, customer rates will be reviewed in 2021 and the rates that are established that time will incorporate a recovery of the regulatory asset. And so we'll begin collecting on that regulatory asset sometime in beginning - sometime in 2021. It really is just timing from a cash collection point of view, but will be transparent from a GAAP earnings point of view.

RyanGreenwald

Analyst

And then it said the coupling component. Does the Commission have to take action by June for that to go into effect or would you expect that to be retroactively applied?

IanRobertson

Analyst

Well, I think right now the expectation is in the settlement of the rate case assuming that it's approved that the decoupling calculation will be retroactive to June 15, 2020. Now ultimately you know that I'll say that settlement, if you will, takes place at a later date because there's nothing to be done obviously on June 16. But at a later date one will look back and one will look back to June 15 and appropriate adjustments will be made. So, Ryan, I'm not sure anything actually has to happen on June 15 to put this into force in effect. It's just - we just all have to collectively agree that starting on June 15 that volumetric will be changes will be tracked from that day forward.I don't know if that's helpful, Ryan?

RyanGreenwald

Analyst

Yes. That is helpful. Thank you. And then just in terms of any granularity you guys have around formal succession timing?

IanRobertson

Analyst

Well, I mean I think we've been pretty clear. I will point out that your third question, Ryan. But that I think we've been pretty clear that - and we obviously welcome Arun to the organization in February. I think he has done a great job drinking from the - and fire hose so far getting to know all of his colleagues. And I think so I'm not sure that the timing that we outlined when Arun join the organization. We don't feel any different about this. I mean I'm sure from Arun's point of view he stepped into a circumstance that he could never have foreseen in terms of Covid-19. But I candidly he's done a great job of coming up to speed from a day-to-day perspective. And that I think has got great understanding organization. So not sure I have anything more to add to that, Ryan.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the conference back over to the Ian Robertson for closing remarks.

Ian Robertson

Analyst

Great. Thanks operator. And, hey, I appreciate everybody's time and interest today. Obviously, as always you can stay on the line for our riveting disclosure this time provided by Amelia Tsang. But before we go, I guess I have two things. Again, stay healthy, stay safe. And I look forward to at least seeing you in cyberspace on June 4th at our Annual General Meeting. Thanks everybody.

Amelia Tsang

Analyst

Thanks Ian. Our discussion during this call contains certain forward-looking information including but not limited to our expectations regarding future earnings and capital expenditures, as well as potential future impact of Covid-19. The forward-looking information is based on certain assumptions including those described in our most recent MD&A filed on SEDAR and EDGAR and available on our website. And is subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or results anticipated by the forward looking information. Forward looking information provided during this call speaks only as of the date of this call and is based on the plans, beliefs, estimates, projections, expectations, opinions and assumptions of management as of today's date.There can be no assurance that forward looking information will prove to be accurate and you should not place undue reliance on forward looking information. We disclaim any obligation to update any forward looking information or to explain any material difference between subsequent actual events and such forward looking information except as required by applicable law.In addition, during the course of this call, we may have referred to certain non-GAAP financial measures including but not limited to adjustment net earnings, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted funds from operations, adjusted net earnings per share and net utility sales. There is no standardized measure of such non-GAAP financial measures and consequently APUC's method of calculating these measures may differ from methods used by other companies and therefore they may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies.For more information about both forward-looking information and non-GAAP financial measures, including a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures, please refer to our most recent MD&A, filed on SEDAR in Canada and EDGAR in the United States and available on our website.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.