Earnings Labs

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Fri, Mar 17, 2023

$6.24

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Webcast and Conference Call. Following the presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Brian Chin, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Brian Chin

Management

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings conference call. Speaking on the call today will be Arun Banskota, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Darren Myers, Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us this morning for the question-and-answer part of the call will be Jeff Norman, Chief Development Officer; and Johnny Johnston, Chief Operating Officer. To accompany today's earnings call, we have a supplemental webcast presentation available on our website, algonquinpowerandutilities.com. Our financial statements and management discussion and analysis are also available on the website as well as on SEDAR and EDGAR. We'd like to remind you that our discussion during the call will include certain forward-looking information, including, but not limited to, expectations regarding earnings, capital expenditures, pending acquisitions, asset sales and growth. At the end of the call, I will read a notice regarding forward-looking information and non-GAAP measures. Please also refer to our most recent MD&A filed on SEDAR and EDGAR and available on our website for additional important information on these items. On the call this morning, Arun will provide an overview of our fourth quarter and full year performance. Darren will follow with the financial results, and then Arun will conclude with an update on our strategic plan for the business. We will then open the lines for the question-and-answer period. Please restrict your questions to two and then re-queue if you have any additional questions to allow others the opportunity to participate. And with that, I'll turn it over to Arun.

Arun Banskota

Management

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. To start, I would like to quickly extend my best wishes to Amelia Tsang, our outgoing Head of Investor Relations, who will be returning to the buy side. We are pleased to welcome Brian Chin to the role of Vice President, Investor Relations, and whose utility and investment analyst background should serve as a useful resource for you. Now turning to our results. Given that this is our year-end earnings call, I will be providing financial and operational highlights for both the fourth quarter as well as the full year 2022. After a challenging second half of the year, we closed out 2022 on stable ground with full year adjusted net earnings per share coming in at the top end of our revised guidance range at $0.69, supported by fourth quarter adjusted net earnings per share of $0.22. On January 12, we hosted an investor update call where we presented decisive actions the company is taking to strengthen its financial position while addressing the various challenges faced. These actions include reducing our capital spend intensity to recognize changing market conditions and company-specific factors, optimizing our portfolio by targeting approximately $1 billion of additional asset sales, reducing our quarterly dividend by 40% to $0.1085 per common share and reducing our reliance on equity capital markets, including undertaking no new equity financings for the next two years. We continue to be focused on supporting our financial foundation, driving long-term profitable growth, and we remain committed to our BBB credit rating. Also, as a reminder, we are very pleased with the results of our inaugural renewable asset recycling program. On December 29, we closed the previously announced sale of our ownership interest in a portfolio of Canadian and U.S. wind facilities to InfraRed Capital Partners. Total…

Darren Myers

Management

Thank you, Arun, and good morning, everyone. As Arun touched on briefly, Algonquin finished the year on stable footing, and we are confident that the steps we are taking will strengthen our financial foundation, drive profitable growth and create long-term value. Turning to the fourth quarter and full year financial results. Our fourth quarter 2022 consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $358.3 million, which is up approximately 20% from the $298.3 million for the same period last year. Full year 2022 consolidated adjusted EBITDA was approximately $1.26 billion, an increase of approximately 17% from the approximately $1.08 billion in the prior year. Fourth quarter adjusted net earnings were $151 million compared to $137 million reported last year, an increase of 10%. Full year adjusted net earnings were $474.9 million, up 6% from $449 million for the full year 2021. Looking at adjusted net earnings per share. The fourth quarter of 2022 came in at $0.22, a $0.05 increase compared to $0.21 in the prior year. And for the full year, adjusted net earnings per share was $0.69, a 3% decrease from $0.71 last year. The $0.69 came in at the high end of our revised 2022 adjusted net earnings per share guidance range of $0.66 to $0.69. Our net GAAP earnings was a loss of $74 million for the quarter, and a loss of $212 million for the full year compared to $175 million net profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 and $265 million for the full year 2021. During the fourth quarter, the company took a $235 million non-cash impairment charge primarily resulting from specific challenges we have previously discussed before, including congestion and declining forward energy prices in ERCOT. Our full year GAAP earnings were also negatively impacted by $499 million in non-cash mark-to-market adjustments on our Atlantica shares.…

Arun Banskota

Management

Thanks, Darren. Before we close out our prepared remark comments this morning and open the line for questions, I want to provide an update on Algonquin's strategic initiatives. The company has continued to execute on strategic priorities, which are positioning us well for the future. First, we are seeking to optimize our portfolio by targeting approximately $1 billion of asset sales announcements in 2023. Proceeds from this initiative are expected to further improve financial flexibility. Second, we continue to work with AEP with regards to the Kentucky Power transaction. Third, we remain focused on operational discipline and profitable growth. Our 2023 capital investments are expected to be $3.6 billion, inclusive of Kentucky Power. I also wanted to briefly touch on the Atlantica strategic review. As you may have seen, Atlantica of which Algonquin owns approximately 42%, announced that it is undertaking a strategic review of the business. We are supportive of the process. We remain confident in Algonquin's long-term future. Our regulated and renewables businesses are both well positioned to contribute to and benefit from the decarbonization transformation that is currently underway and which will only strengthen over the coming years. We remain excited about the Inflation Reduction Act and the long-term incentives to decarbonize, which should benefit both our regulated and renewable businesses. In the face of near-term macro headwinds, we believe we are taking the prudent and proactive steps to navigate challenges and position the company to enhance shareholder value over the long term. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator to open the lines up for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Sean Steuart with TD Securities. Please go ahead.

Sean Steuart

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. Couple of questions. The $3.6 billion spending plan for 2023, just to clarify, does that include the full $2.6 billion for Kentucky Power or just the $1.4 billion cash component of that acquisition?

Darren Myers

Management

Hi, Sean. That's the entire amount.

Sean Steuart

Analyst

Okay. So that would leave $700 million of spending plans for the legacy regulated portfolio. Is that the correct way to look at it? And I asked because I think at the most recent deep dive Investor Day over a year ago, you were talking about $1.2 billion for the regulated spending plan in 2023? And I guess what I'm trying to get at is how do you guys think about long-term organic rate base growth potential for that overall business?

Darren Myers

Management

So maybe I'll start. So on the -- just to clarify, on the $3.6 billion, it's $2.6 billion for the Kentucky and then $1 billion, obviously, is left over and we're not providing color on the investments through the longer term of our capital plan here. But needless to say, we see lots of opportunity to keep investing both in the regulated and the renewable business.

Sean Steuart

Analyst

Okay. So no thoughts on longer-term organic growth potential that you can share at this point?

Darren Myers

Management

Sorry, Sean, not at this point. Arun, I don't know if you want to add to that.

Arun Banskota

Management

Sure. So Sean, in the past, we have shown you that with the existing portfolio of regulated assets, that we have potential to invest as much as $1 billion to $1.2 billion on the regulated side of the business. However, in the interest of customer affordability we have made the decision to reduce our capital intensity and focus on really safety, reliability and other absolutely needed investments on the regulator side of the business.

Sean Steuart

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for that, Arun. Second question, with respect to the asset sell-down program, you touched on reiterating the $1 billion target. Does -- maybe some updates on how that program is progressing? And does the Atlantica strategic review affect how you approach that possible divestiture program going forward?

Arun Banskota

Management

Sean, as background, I would say that with over $17 billion worth of assets in our portfolio, the $1 billion taken in context is a fairly small amount. We have quite a number of different optionalities for that $1 billion of proceeds. As you know, we just announced in the fourth quarter, the renewable asset sell-down with proceeds in the range of $316 million. That is part of our ongoing strategy on the renewable side of the business. And with our acquisitive history over the many years, we certainly have a number of optionalities to get to that $1 billion, and we certainly will provide you more color with time.

Sean Steuart

Analyst

Okay, thanks for that Arun. That’s all I had for now. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Dariusz Lozny with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Dariusz Lozny

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. First one is just on the Kentucky Power transaction, maybe just procedurally, how you guys are thinking about it? Obviously, it's a fairly tight turnaround time with the April 26 deadline. Can you comment on, assuming FERC approval comes in after the 45-day comment period and -- but within the April 26 timeframe, maybe just how much time do you actually need to beyond the FERC approval to sort of dot the Is and cross the Ts and actually get to a financial close with your counterparty in that transaction?

Arun Banskota

Management

Beyond the outside date, we have actually done all of the planning necessary to be able to close. So that is not a constraint. As you know, we put in the new two or three in February. So we are as always have been using reasonable best efforts, and we continue to use reasonable best efforts right up to the outside date. And beyond that, there is -- it would not be prudent for me to speculate on timing, inside date -- outside date. So I will leave it at that for now.

Dariusz Lozny

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you for that color. And maybe just one other one on your 2023 EPS guidance. Obviously, when you guys came out with that in January, there were some embedded assumptions in there about your interest expense. And obviously, we've seen some volatility in the rate market since then. Can you maybe -- are you in a position to comment at all about as far as where you're tracking in that $0.55 to $0.61 band, specifically related to that interest expense component?

Darren Myers

Management

Hi, Dariusz. I mean, really, I mean, as you said, there's a lot of volatility, obviously going on right now. We're very comfortable still $0.55 to $0.61. So we reiterated that guidance. And I would say that everything is all in all, where we would have been during the last update, which in January that we gave in the investment community.

Dariusz Lozny

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you for that color. I’ll leave it here.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from David Quezada with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

David Quezada

Analyst

Thanks. Morning, everyone. Maybe I'll start with one on the '23 capital plan. Curious if Kentucky Power doesn't go through, do you think that you could add some projects back into the plan? Or would affordability on the regulated side, still limit the investments there, consistent with your comments, maybe are there some renewable projects that could go back in? Just any thoughts on that scenario?

Arun Banskota

Management

Sure, David. So on our $1 billion program, as I said before, that includes Kentucky Power in our base case, which we provided color to you at our January 12 update. And as we've discussed before, we certainly have a lot more growth opportunities on both the regulated side of the business and the renewable side of the business. So I don't want to speculate on what happens, but we have lots of options to deploy capital, but we'll obviously be looking at it from customer affordability, our own capital intensity requirements, funding requirements and all of those factors.

David Quezada

Analyst

Okay. Excellent. Thanks for that. Then maybe just a follow-up on the -- or maybe just a clarification on the asset sales. Is it fair to say that, I guess, you're still potentially looking at other asset builds outside of Atlantica and you don't need to wait for an outcome on the Atlantica process in order to be having conversations with respect to potential other asset sales?

Arun Banskota

Management

We are comfortable with our $1 billion asset sales that we announced in January. And again, like I said, we have lots of options to get to that $1 billion range. We are deep in the planning stages, and we will certainly let our investor community know with time.

David Quezada

Analyst

Thanks for that Arun. I’ll turn it over.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Nelson Ng with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Nelson Ng

Analyst

Thanks. Just a quick follow-up question on interest rates. So I think with the sale of assets in Q4, it looks like you reduced your floating interest rate exposure a bit. Can you talk about how you're looking to manage your floating interest rate exposure going forward? And I presume the plan is still unchanged in terms of if you close Kentucky Power, you'll be drawing down on your floating credit facility?

Darren Myers

Management

Yes, hi Nelson. I said that the update is consistent with the January update. We did end up right close to the 90% fixed rate. We did a number of things in the fourth quarter to improve the fixed to floating rate. And as we -- assuming the close of Kentucky, we would expect the fixed percent to go down and then work our way back up through more fixed instruments as through the -- through our capital plan for 2023, which we outlined at the January Investor Day. So I think as a target, we would expect to be -- or we would target to be over 85% fixed at all given time. So we're pleased that 90% that we're at now, and we work to kind of maintain it at this level.

Nelson Ng

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. And then next question relates to the renewable energy business, and maybe this is a question for Jeff. But you guys mentioned that you have roughly, I guess, 600 megawatts under construction and 450 megawatts that will be commissioned this year. Kind of looking out over the next few years, is 450 megawatts like a good run rate? Or do you see that ramping up over time? And I know Arun flagged that there's obviously a lot of optionality and opportunities you see, but I'm just thinking whether the 450 is a good number or not?

JeffNorman

Analyst

Yes. I think the 450 -- if you look at our history, the build has fluctuated a little bit as high as 1,600 megawatts, but the projects are fairly clumpy as you know, in terms of minimum size, 100 megawatts to 300 megawatts, but 450 megawatts annually is a reasonable run rate for kind of our current capital planning.

Arun Banskota

Management

Again, as a reminder, we have a lot of growth opportunities on the renewable side as well with over 4,000 megawatts of greenfield pipeline and over 1,700 megawatt hours of storage pipeline. So, we'll be able to get to that number. At the same time, as a reminder, we have said this time and again because of the nature of the renewables business, it does happen to be fairly lumpy with as much as like just at 1,600 megawatts in one year versus 450 megawatts this year.

Nelson Non-GAAP

Analyst

Thanks for the color.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Rob Hope with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Robert Hope

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Just two follow-up ones. First, in Kentucky. Assuming the transaction is closed, has your outlook for your greening the fleet initiatives there have been changed or tempered at all? I realize that the Senate bills that have been proposed don't necessarily directly impact you, but it does speak to we'll maybe characterize it as maybe a tougher time to get renewables in the state?

Arun Banskota

Management

Actually, Robert, I would say otherwise, with the Inflation Reduction Act really the goal is to reduce prices for green and clean energy to ultimate consumers. And what the IRA also does is provide a very long-term stability for developers like ourselves. And so while we obviously could make those economics work in Missouri with the 600 megawatts of investments on the wind side. And that was before the IRA, those investments pieces have become even more compelling with the IRA. The other thing I would like to point out is that in the Kentucky Power footprint, you're talking about the retirement or the closure of more than 1,100 megawatts of coal and those have been the highest cost power for Kentucky Power. So we see lots of potential given the IRA and given the out-of-state coal retirements just to reinvesting in greenfield. So the feasibility is even stronger, in fact.

Robert Hope

Analyst

Okay. Got it. I appreciate that color. Thank you. And then maybe turning over to the regulated businesses. Higher operating costs were kind of flagged in the MD&A, especially on the gas side. Can you maybe add a little bit of commentary on where you're seeing operating costs and whether or not it's been a material drag on ROEs into '22 and into '23?

Johnny Johnston

Analyst

Rob, it's Johnny. I mean, I think, overall, we feel -- well, we always manage our operating costs pretty closely, and you look at the track record over time as our operating cost is I think have come down, give or take, probably the 1% CAGR over the last five years or so. And so I think we feel that we've got a pretty good track record going forward in terms of managing our operating costs.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Naji Baydoun with IA Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Naji Baydoun

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Just wanted to revisit Atlantica Yield and the assets or program. Can you just give us maybe your thoughts on what's different with this strategic review versus the one that was launched a couple of years ago? And are you still looking to launch -- or have you already launched other assets of programs?

Arun Banskota

Management

Sorry, Naji, I didn't get the last part of your question.

Naji Baydoun

Analyst

Yes. I was just saying, are you still looking to begin or have you already begun other processes to sell assets other than Atlantica?

Arun Banskota

Management

Sure. Again, you're right. Atlantica did go through a strategic review process back in 2018. However, these are very different times. And this is a different board that has announced the strategic review process, and we're just going to let that unfold and Atlantica will give updates with time. When we did our investor update in January 12, that was clearly before the Board of Atlantica had announced its strategic review. So we are confident in the $1 billion asset sales because like I keep saying, with our over $17 billion of assets, we have lots of optionalities and we are very much deep in the planning stages, including Phase 2 of our renewable asset sell-out.

Naji Baydoun

Analyst

Okay. That helps. Thank you. And just a question on Kentucky. Is there a scenario where we get past the April 26 deadline and some updates or positive updates on regulatory approvals? Just any thoughts on what happens then? What are kind of your options at that point?

Arun Banskota

Management

Sure, Naji. So look, with the December 15 denial by FERC, obviously, to be put in for management need to be looking at all options. But at the same time, as under our -- all of our obligations and our commitments if we will continue to use reasonable best efforts to close this transaction all the way until the outside date. And before that, it will probably not be potent from me to speculate on the what if.

Naji Baydoun

Analyst

Okay, understood. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further -- I do apologize. We do have a question from Richard Sunderland with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Richard Sunderland

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks for the time today. And just one for me. I know you’ve given this in the script, but could you speak a little bit more to the 4Q impairment and the valuation allowance alongside that? Just I'm wondering if this relates at all to changing expectations for the renewables development activities going forward. It doesn't sound like there's been a change in the pipeline, but just a little more color there would be helpful? Thank you.

Darren Myers

Management

Yes, Richard. No, let me start just directly to your question. It does not change the outlook from our January update or for the renewables business. I think as you know, the Texas market has been a tougher market, and this is part of our annual impairment testing. There's really two pieces to it. There's the Senate asset, which was a 2012 kind of vintage asset that really is just being the impairment as a result of the forward pricing curve today versus where it was when the original business case was done, which has obviously changed since 2012. And then on the Texas coastal wind assets, it's really around the congestion and basis issues that we've been discussing. So I would say that it reflects everything that that we've been discussing on the previous calls and just part of our annual impairment testing and no change going forward. And the deferred asset that just the result of the losses that we have in the business. Just ability its tax and accounting thing and ability to use them in the short term, it doesn’t change our outlook on the tax expense or on the business.

Richard Sunderland

Analyst

Got it. Very clear. Actually one follow-up for me on the Kentucky side. I think the release notes that HSR approvals have lapsed. What's the time line to receive HSR again?

Arun Banskota

Management

Yes. Richard, we've already refiled the HSR approval, and we do not anticipate that to be an issue.

Richard Sunderland

Analyst

Okay. I’ll leave it there. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions registered at this time. I would like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. Banskota.

Arun Banskota

Management

Thank you for taking the time to listen to our fourth quarter and full year 2022 call today. Please continue to stay on the line for our disclaimer.

Brian Chin

Management

Our discussion during this call contains certain forward-looking information, including, but not limited to, our expectations regarding earnings, capital expenditures, pending acquisitions, asset sales and growth. This forward-looking information is based on certain assumptions, including these described in our most recent MD&A and annual information form filed on SEDAR and EDGAR and is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or results anticipated by the forward-looking information. Forward-looking information provided during this call speaks only as of the date of this call and is based on the plans, beliefs, estimates, projections, expectations, opinions and assumptions of management as of today's date. There can be no assurance that forward-looking information will prove to be accurate, and you should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. We disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking information or to explain any material difference between subsequent actual events and such forward-looking information, except as required by applicable law. In addition, during the course of this call, we may have referred to certain non-GAAP measures and ratios including, but not limited to, adjusted net earnings, adjusted net earnings per share or adjusted net EPS, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted funds from operations and divisional operating profit. There is no standardized measure of such non-GAAP measures and consequently, our method of calculating these measures may differ from methods used by other companies, and therefore, may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. For more information about forward-looking information and non-GAAP measures, including a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the corresponding GAAP measures, please refer to our most recent MD&A filed on SEDAR in Canada and EDGAR in the United States and available on our website.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.