Michael Weinstein
Analyst · DGHM
Well, we are going to do better than last year in EBITDA. I mean, we are up significantly already. And Rustic, while it's a seasonal business, it's profitable throughout every quarter. There is certainly a dip when you get into the June and September quarters, as the weather gets better here, fewer people I guess are there. But we'll see accretion from Rustic. We have not been lucky again this year in terms of weather. We have 13 weekends in New York before people start to go away for weekends to wherever they go, the Jersey Shore, or Long Island. Thursdays is our big day at Bryant Park. I just want to give you a sense of this. So there are 13 Thursdays that we consider critical. On a good Thursday, which we had a couple of weeks ago, we did $130,000 at 1 restaurant, at Bryant Park. Last week, it rained, we did $50,000. So the differential is not only at Bryant Park, it's at El Rio Grande. It doesn't affect us so much at Robert, but it certainly affects us in Sequoia in D.C., where we have 600 outdoor seats. So those swings could be -- on a bad Thursday, it's an excess of $100,000 in revenue, but that revenue is basically bar revenue and highly profitable to us. So if we have a normal season, I think we'll be up a couple of million dollars in EBITDA from last year. If we have a good season, we'll be up a little bit more. If we have a horrible season, we'll still be up, but not quite as much. Everything else is -- I hate to trivialize the other operations. Las Vegas, you'll be up 1 point, you'll be down 1 point. Boston, you're up 1 point. And I'm talking about comp sales. We're down a couple of points. Florida, as I said, at the Hard Rocks, you're going to be down 8%, 9%, 10% compared to last year because of this comp change. New York, because of the event business in Robert and Bryant Park, even with bad weather. You'll be up in events, the question is, how much down you are in à la carte? But nothing moves that much. There's no catastrophes here in any 1 of our 7 venues. So what you really got to pay attention to, I think -- not you, but what we pay attention to is what new stuff are we doing? How are these -- how are we handling these lease terminations that are coming up when they come up? What new developments take place? And what we really keep our eye on now in terms of really expanding the top line, as well as the bottom line, is what's going on in the Meadowlands, what's going on with a couple of these other developments that we're getting closer to doing. We're looking for a new site for Rustic Inn to expand it to a second venue to see -- I mean, we bought Rustic Inn at a very, very good enterprise value for us. If we can make it work in a second location, we think this restaurant is unique enough that we could have several of them over a short period of time. The question is, does it work in a second location? I mean, right now, I don't know if you've ever been there, I can't find it. I know 1 way to get there from the south. I mean, on 95, I know if I make a left on Griffin Road and take a right at the second stoplight -- stop sign, I get there. But if you ask me to come from the western part of Fort Lauderdale to try to find it, I can't find it. But this thing has a 2- or 3-hour wait in a location that you literally can't find, that's in the middle of nowhere. And so we think we found a second location that's not in the middle of nowhere, that's pretty visible. So we'll see if it works, if we do manage to sign this lease. So there are things we're doing. I mean, I think our core business doesn't really move that much, you're within a small EBITDA range. Depending upon weather, depending upon the world's economic situation, you're in a tight range. What really has to happen here is we have to move this forward with more Rustics, new developments. Obviously, the Meadowlands will be extremely important to us.