Paul J. Reilly
Analyst · Citigroup
Thanks, Mike. Third quarter sales of $5 billion were, as Mike said, in line with our expectations and were down 4% year-over-year. During the quarter, we prospectively revised our presentation of sales related to certain fulfillment contracts to present these revenues on an agency basis as net fees as compared to presenting gross sales in prior periods. We have not changed the revenue presentation, sales would have decreased by only 1%. The change has no impact on our gross profit dollars or earnings, and there is no impact on our consolidated balance sheet or statement of cash flows. Pro forma for acquisitions, excluding the impact of both foreign exchange and the aforementioned change in revenue presentation, sales were flat year-over-year. In Global Components, sales declined 8% year-over-year as growth in Asia was offset by continued macro related weakness in the European region, while sales in the Americas were relatively in line with the prior year. Pro forma for acquisitions, excluding the impact of both foreign exchange and the aforementioned change in revenue presentation, sales in Global Components were flat year-over-year. Sales in Global ECS increased 3% year-over-year with solid performance in both regions. Pro forma for acquisitions and excluding the impact of foreign exchange, sales increased 2% year-over-year in Global ECS. Our consolidated gross profit margin was 13.4%, a decrease of 40 basis points year-over-year due to ongoing pricing pressure and a change in mix of products. As discussed previously, the change in revenue presentation had no impact on gross profit dollars, but positively impacted the gross profit margin percentage by 50 basis points for the third quarter. Pro forma for acquisitions, excluding the impact of both foreign exchange and the aforementioned change in revenue presentation, gross profit margin decreased by approximately 110 basis points year-over-year due to ongoing competitive pricing pressure in both of the company's business segments, as well as a change in the mix of products. Operating expenses are down 2% year-over-year on an absolute dollar basis, and increased 30 basis points as a percentage of sales. Pro forma for acquisitions, excluding the impact of both foreign exchange and the aforementioned change in revenue presentation, operating expenses declined 3% year-over-year and were down 30 basis points as a percentage of sales. To assist you with your analysis, acquisitions added approximately $20 million to operating expenses this quarter. Operating income was $178.4 million, and operating income as a percentage of sales was down 60 basis points year-over-year. Pro forma for acquisitions and the aforementioned change in revenue presentation, operating income as a percentage of sales decreased 80 basis points year-over-year. Pro forma for acquisitions, Global ECS operating income as a percentage of sales increased 20 basis points year-over-year due to improvements in both regions. In Global Components, pro forma for acquisitions and the aforementioned change in revenue presentation, operating margin declined 110 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to weakness in the more profitable regions of the Americas and EMEA. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 28.3%. But for modeling purposes, you should assume that the tax rate for the next few quarters will be between 28% and 29%. Net income was $112.2 million, with earnings per share at $1.04 and $1.02 on a basic and diluted basis, respectively. Over the last 12 months, we generated more than $630 million in cash from operations, significantly exceeding our goal of converting 70% of GAAP net income to cash, and this is a terrific accomplishment for our team. We continued to take advantage of what we consider to be an attractive valuation and repurchased an additional $76 million of our stock in the third quarter, bringing the total amount returned to shareholders to nearly $780 million over the last 5 years. As we exited the quarter, we had $124 million remaining for future buybacks on our current authorization. Return of working capital was 23.4%, and return on invested capital of 9.4% remains in excess of our weighted average cost to capital. This is a high-level summary of our financial results for the third quarter, and for more detail regarding the business unit results, please refer to the CFO commentary published this morning. Now, looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we believe that total sales will be between $5.1 billion and $5.5 billion, with Global Components sales between $3 billion and $3.2 billion, and global Enterprise Computing Solutions sales between $2.1 billion and $2.3 billion. As a result of this outlook, we expect earnings per share on a diluted basis, excluding any charges, to be in the range of $1.01 to $1.13 per share. Our guidance assumes that the average diluted shares outstanding will be $107.3 million and the average Euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate for the fourth quarter to be 1.29 to 1. As we look ahead to the fourth quarter, we believe the macro-environment will continue to be an overhang and we expect the markets we serve to remain weak. We expect to see a year-end budget flush in our global ECS business, although in line with the low-end of historical seasonality. In Global Components, we're expecting the line of normal seasonality in our legacy European business, with the Americas and the Asia legacy businesses expected to be slightly below normal seasonality.