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Associated Banc-Corp (ASB)

Q4 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, Jan 23, 2025

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Transcript

Andrew Harmening

Management

Well, good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. I'm Andy Harmening. I'm joined once again by our Chief Financial Officer, Derek Meyer; and our Chief Credit Officer, Pat Ahern. I want to start off by sharing some highlights from the fourth quarter of 2024. From there, Derek will cover margin, income statement and capital trends, and Pat will provide an update on credit. We continue to see signs of strength in the US economy and closer to home in the Midwest, the situation has remained remarkably stable. Unemployment rates in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and several other Midwestern states remain well below the national average of 4.1%. Our prime and super prime consumer borrowers have remained resilient and our commercial customers are cautiously optimistic about their growth prospects in 2025. This continued stability has enabled us to remain front-footed with the execution of our growth strategy and the fourth quarter was an active one for our Company. We added our -- we added to our commercial capabilities through the launch of a new specialty deposit and payment solutions vertical. We raised over $300 million of new capital through a common stock issuance and put a portion of that capital to work through a balance sheet repositioning, selling approximately $700 million in low-yielding mortgage loans and $1.3 billion worth in AFS securities. We also purchased $55 million in existing customer credit -- customer credit card balances through an expansion of our participation agreement with Elan Financial Services. During the quarter, we also announced the addition of two widely respected business leaders to our Board of Directors in Kristen Ludgate and Owen Sullivan. We elevated three senior business line leaders to our executive leadership team in the Head of Corporate and Commercial Banking, Phil Trier; Deputy Head of Commercial Real…

Derek Meyer

Management

Thanks, Andy. I'll start on Slide 9 with our asset and liability yield trends. Following the 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September and subsequent 25 basis point cuts in November and December, earning asset yields and interest-bearing liability costs both fell meaningfully during the fourth quarter. Total bank-earning asset yields decreased by 22 basis points during the quarter, led by a 43 basis point decrease in CRE loans and a 53 basis point decrease in commercial and business lending, both of which were largely floating-rate portfolios that respond more quickly to changes in market rates. These decreases were partially offset by relative stability in our large fixed-rate auto, resi, and securities books. On the other side of the balance sheet, total liability costs decreased by 30 basis points during the quarter. This larger decrease was a function of our ability to decrease interest-rate -- interest-bearing deposit costs by 22 basis points during the quarter, along with our efforts to pay down wholesale funding. Moving to Slide 10, our total net interest income grew by $8 million versus the prior quarter and $17 million versus Q4 of 2023, landing at $270 million for the quarter. Our net interest margin expanded by 3 basis points to 2.81%. During the quarter, due to the timing of the securities reinvestment, which closed at the end of the year, and the timing of the loan sale, which is expected to be settled by the end of the month, the NII benefit we saw in Q4 was largely driven by initial securities sale and a refinancing of our high-cost FHLB advances. On a pro-forma basis, we estimate that our balance sheet repositioning, including the credit card balance acquisition we made in December would have added approximately 17 more basis points to our net interest…

Patrick Ahern

Management

Thanks, Derek. I'll start with an allowance update on Slide 16. We utilized the Moody's November 2024 baseline forecast for our CECL forward-looking assumptions. The Moody's baseline forecast remains consistent with a resilient economy despite the high-interest rate environment. The baseline forecast contains no additional rate hikes, slower but positive GDP growth rates, a cooling labor market, and continued deceleration of inflation with continued monitoring of ongoing market developments. Our ACLL increased by another $5 million in Q4 to finish the quarter at $402 million with increases in the commercial and business lending and other consumer categories, partially offset by decreases in CRE and residential mortgage. The uptick in commercial largely stem from some migration into criticized loans during Q4. Similar to last quarter, we do not feel that this increase is an indication of a significant shift in credit stress, but rather it is a reflection of our adherence to risk rating definition guidance acknowledging shifts in credit profiles. The bank does not view these credits representing risk of loss at this time as reflected in our stable ACL. Altogether, our reserve to loan ratio increased by 2 basis points from the prior quarter and 3 basis points from the same period a year ago to 1.35%. Moving to Slide 17, we maintain a high degree of confidence in the quality of our loan portfolio with continued solid performance in our core credit quality trends. Total bank-wide delinquencies increased to $80 million for the quarter, representing a $24 million increase from the prior quarter, but a $4 million decrease from Q4 of 2023. We continue to believe these trends are in line with our normal course of business and not necessarily something that's indicative of future credit stress. Importantly, the quarterly increase was limited to the 30 to 89-day…

Andrew Harmening

Management

Thank you, Pat. I'll wrap up by reiterating a couple of key points from our presentation on Slide 18, starting with the balance sheet. We continue to seek selective growth that emphasizes full banking relationships, quality credit profiles and diversification to deliver improved returns. With this in mind, we expect total loan growth of 5% to 6% in 2025. On the other side of the balance sheet, we continue to expect to fund a majority of our loan growth with growth in our core customer deposits. As such, we expect core customer deposits to grow by 4% to 5% in 2025. On the revenue front, we've adjusted our most recent forecast for balance sheet growth, deposit betas, and Fed action along with the enhanced profitability from our balance sheet repositioning. With all these factors incorporated, we expect to drive net interest income growth between 12% to 13% in 2025. We also continue to feel encouraged by the durability of our non-interest income in a challenged environment over the past couple of years, and we expect to grow noninterest income by 0% to 1% in 2025 relative to our adjusted 2024 base. And finally, our disciplined approach to expenses remains a foundational focus. We continue to strategically invest in our business to support growth. With this in mind, we expect to hold non-interest expense growth to a range of 3% to 4% in 2025. And with that, I would like to open it up for questions.

Operator

Operator

Great. Thank you so much. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] First question is from Scott Siefers from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Scott Siefers

Analyst

Afternoon, everybody. Thanks for taking the question. Let's see, Derek, I was hoping you could just sort of discuss your thoughts on the trajectory of the margin from the fourth quarter is 281. It looks like -- I mean, we've got a good starting point given the disclosure on Slide 10 with the 298 pro forma, which presumably gets us the full benefit from the restructuring. But just curious about sort of the other moving parts you see on the horizon. And then I guess within the response, if you could maybe discuss the funding dynamics in a little more detail given that you'd expect to grow deposits at a lower clip than loans this year. And I know sort of funding with core deposits is always a key priority. So just curious on those dynamics, please.

Derek Meyer

Management

Yes. Thanks, Scott. So I think we're largely looking for a stable outlook in margin once we get the benefit of this. There could be upside to that being that we're asset-sensitive and the market bias right now seems to be fewer cuts than before. But we are asset-sensitive and with the rate curve and our assumption in our outlook includes two cuts try -- continuing to drive improved profitability while the rates are going down exposes us to a little bit of that sensitivity. So what we expect to help us aside from this transaction and lock-in closer to that 3% is the benefits of the hedge, the hedging. So we have the hedging details we put in back for the first time. You'll see that we continue to reduce our asset sensitivity going forward in the down rate scenario and that is the scenario that's out there in the implied forwards. And then the securities repositioning gives us upside to help lock that in and stay longer. And then the auto book, which dropped for the first time, we do expect that to stabilize and continue to modestly go up, albeit at a slower pace than it has been. From the funding dynamics, I think we -- when we put our guidance out from 2024, we had a gap there also. We managed to close that gap by the end of the year and predominantly fund our loan growth with deposit growth. I think we do want to recognize that that still take some build-out from our side to support the new deposit vertical and closing that gap beyond what we put in our guidance may start to accelerate towards the end of the year and into 2026. So we might see -- we've got essentially a 1% gap that we expect our wholesale funding to close and we've got that gap capacity as a result of continuing to pay down FHLB funding from our current position. I tried to answer all your questions, Scott. Yeah.

Scott Siefers

Analyst

Yes. No, I think that's perfect. And thank you. And I guess the final one was, Andy, maybe you could talk about the $1.2 billion of C&I growth you expect this year? I think that compares to $750 million number you had discussed previously. I could be comparing apples to oranges, but if I'm correct, maybe if you can just sort of walk through the main drivers of that favorable delta.

Andrew Harmening

Management

Yes, of course. So I mean, you're pretty close. Page 6 outlines a little bit of what the trend is right now. And I think we're roughly at about $840 million in growth in 2024 with about $1.2 billion in 2025. So if you look at our forecast going from 4% plus growth in 2024 to 5% plus 5% to 6% in 2025, you can see it's largely coming from commercial. We -- you can also see that there's a trend emerging. We expected back half of 2024 to be stronger than the first half as we are ramping up. We have largely concluded our hiring. We'll expect to announce a few more to close that out in the first quarter, but we don't intend to spend the whole year hiring. This has been something that we announced in the fourth quarter of 2023 and we not only build the number, but we have gotten incredibly high quality RM. So really the increase in commercial is just a function of them being here a full year, being more on average in the full year, and then really doing a ramped up production. So we have a lot clear visibility into what's possible in 2025. So we just kind of extrapolated that. I would add to that that we have on the ABL and the leasing side. That's a business that we started about three years ago and we've continued to grow it. It now has about $1.2 billion in outstandings, but that continues opportunity for us as well. So the commercial growth plan that we've had is right on track and I'm very pleased with where we are heading into the year-end and that is why we see that ramp up in growth in 2025.

Scott Siefers

Analyst

Perfect. All right. Thank you very much.

Andrew Harmening

Management

Thank you, Scott.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Daniel Tamayo from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Daniel Tamayo

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon, guys. I guess first, just on the credit side, one for Pat here, you've talked about the deep dive that you're doing on the loan portfolio and how that's impacting the ratings on the loans. I'm just curious how far along you are in that process and if we should expect to continue to see some migration just related to the work that you're doing in that?

Patrick Ahern

Management

We're doing that the deep dives just for clarity. We're doing on a constant basis and we've been doing it for the last couple of years. So really what we're -- what you're seeing is kind of just early recognition of any changes in credit. So that's an ongoing process that we're constantly looking at. And I would say from quarter-to-quarter, there's certainly ins and outs that come with the normal course of business. We're just trying to be a little more proactive on how we're doing the risk rating to kind of get ahead of it if there is going to be any stress. But the good news is we're not seeing any buildup in the non-accrual. So we think we're kind of staying ahead of these things as they do pop up.

Daniel Tamayo

Analyst

Okay, thank you. And then maybe one for you, Andy. You know, with these significant changes that you've been making, kind of overall that you've talked a lot about, and then kind of the balance sheet changes that you made here in the fourth quarter, do you think it's likely that the major changes are over? It sounds like you're through the majority of the hirings on the commercial side. But as it relates to the balance sheet structure, does it feel like the major changes are done or are there still some changes that you'd be interested in making in the future?

Andrew Harmening

Management

Well, that's a great question. So what I would say is what we needed to prove out is that we could grow organically and we could shift the mix. We're proving that out right now. We saw an opportunity to inorganically take down our residential real estate concentration of non-customer residential real estate and we've largely done that. Will there be other opportunities? We don't have anything planned in 2024, but there are always different opportunities that we look at from an organic growth standpoint. And right now, because we have a business that is growing on the commercial side, it's growing its deposit base, it has household growth. We have customer satisfaction, we've invested in digital. We have the ability to scale at this point. So opportunistically, if there's a deal in the next 12 to 24 months, we have a team that's very stable and could move down that path. But right now for 2024, what I see is a really good opportunity to execute on the organic side.

Daniel Tamayo

Analyst

Okay, great. Well, I appreciate you taking my questions.

Andrew Harmening

Management

Thank you. Thanks, Daniel.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Terry McEvoy from Stephens. Please go ahead.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe Andy, a question for you. The record high customer satisfaction scores, the net promoter score is all moving in the right direction. My question is how and where does that translate into growth when we look at the balance sheet and the income statement. And does that give you the confidence in that the 6% core consumer deposit growth that you've talked about?

Andrew Harmening

Management

Yes, Terry, I think if I were at a Town Hall, I think that was a planted question because that is right in our wheelhouse. And I've talked a lot about customer satisfaction and we've talked about household growth and we want to make that a question that's on the road to somewhere. And so I'll break it down like this. In 2022 we shrunk our customer base 1%. In 2023 we grew at 0%. In 2024 we grew at 1% and now we're forecasting 2%. The reason that matters is because between 2022 and 2024, the quality of account in dollars increased 23%. So the number that we have now for growth, every time we grow by 1%, that equates to about $150 million in additional balances. So this is the first time we've had a tailwind coming into the year in over a decade. And that tailwind and that productivity expectation now goes from $150 million to at 2% growth, it goes to $300 million. So we look at that, then we add on top of that we add a deposit vertical that's just getting started. We've hired really talented people and we're accelerating whatever technology expectations we have to make sure that they are effective. But there's no doubt that they're experts in what they do. We add on to that 20 plus RMs going into the year with a balanced scorecard that incents them to bring in full relationships. We -- that is just an accelerator of everything we've done and then we don't talk about it a whole lot. But we've invested in our HSA business, which is also a deposit heavy business. So when I add household growth with quality accounts, when we add new deposit vertical, when we add increase in RM, balanced scorecard in HSA, we're not just hoping that we grow faster than the marketplace. We've invested in the strategies to do that. And so that's where I get a confidence on where I see the deposit growth coming.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst

I swear, Ben didn't email me that question, I swear. And then just as a follow-up, I think we all would agree your position to play offense in 2025, some of the larger banks are now committing to grow loan growth this year and maybe it's more of your metro market. So how do you -- how did you think about your expense guide for the year and what might be a more competitive environment, especially as what Scott brought up on the C&I side where you had a lot of success in the second half of the year?

Andrew Harmening

Management

Maybe I'll translate that question. Is it can we stay in the 3% to 4% or do we have pressure on the upside? Is that what you mean on the expense number?

Terry McEvoy

Analyst

No, I was talking on the loan growth and large banks being more competitive.

Andrew Harmening

Management

I see. I see. Yes, on the pricing side. And so what -- I've actually been asking this question this week, whether that be from our Chief Credit Officer who sees every deal or our Head of Commercial and across the markets that we're in, with the verticals that we're in, we have not experienced the pricing pressure on the deals that we've been putting on the books. And as you can see, we've been putting an increased amount on the books. And so when you get quality relationship managers that have market knowledge and long term relationships, that's the primary driver. We would not be immune, of course, if the marketplace created that pressure on pricing on new deals, but we just haven't seen it at this point.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst

Thanks for taking my questions.

Andrew Harmening

Management

Thank you, Terry.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And if there are no further questions, I would like to turn the floor back to management for any closing comments.

Andrew Harmening

Management

Well, what I will say in closing is we have as much momentum heading into the year as we've had in the four years that I've been here. We appreciate your interest in the Associated Banc story and we look forward to providing updates as the year goes along. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you again for your participation.