Earnings Labs

Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A. (ASPS)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 16, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Altisource Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this call may be recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Ms. Michelle Esterman, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead Ma'am.

Michelle Esterman

Analyst

Thank you, Operator. We first want to remind you that the earnings release, Form 10-K, and quarterly slides are available on our Web site at www.altisource.com. These provide additional information investors may find useful. Our presentation today contains forward-looking statements made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Federal Securities Laws. Statements in this conference call, our slides and our press release issued earlier today, which are other than historical facts, are forward-looking statements. These include financial projections and scenarios contained in our slides and described during this call. Altisource makes no representation that our actual financial results will be the same as that set out in the financial projections and scenarios. The financial projections and scenarios should not be unduly relied upon. Factors that might cause actual results to differ materially are discussed in our earnings release, as well as our public filings. The Company disclaims any intent or obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements regardless of whether new information becomes available, future developments occur or otherwise. Today's presentation also contains financial measures that are non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their GAAP equivalent is included in the appendix to our slides. Joining me for today's call is Bill Shepro, our Chief Executive Officer. I would now like to turn the call over to Bill.

Bill Shepro

Analyst

Good morning and thank you for joining today's call. This morning, I'll discuss 2016 or 2017 objectives and our longer term diversification goal. Michelle will then discuss our financial results, 2017 financial scenarios, and capital allocation. Let me briefly address the $28 million litigation settlement we recorded in the fourth quarter. Last month, we reached an agreement, the federal securities class action lawsuit filed against us in 2014. The settlement is subject to final court approval. We believe the case had no merit, but it is determined that it is in the best interest of the Company and our shareholders to settle this case to eliminate the uncertainty, burden, and expense of litigation. We are pleased to have this behind us. You can refer to our 10-K for additional information. In 2016, we continued our transformation from a mortgage services company generating the majority of revenue from Ocwen to a real-estate and mortgage marketplace, offering many of the same innovative solutions with diversified customer base. We anticipate Ocwen revenue for years to come, but we're not complacent. We're investing to grow our real-estate and mortgage marketplaces by expanding services to existing customers, winning business with new clients, growing our sales pipeline, developing complementary products, enhancing customer experience, and building brand awareness. Because the sales cycle was longer than we originally projected, our 22% non-Ocwen service revenue growth in 2016 was lower than anticipated. We are disappointed that we did not achieve our anticipated growth, but more importantly, we believe the significant progress we made in 2016 positions Altisource for a higher rate of non-Ocwen growth in 2017 and beyond. As you can see on slide two, at the midpoint of our 2017 scenarios, we project non-Ocwen revenue growth of 36%. In essence, the revenue and midpoint reflects approximately a little…

Michelle Esterman

Analyst

Thank you, Bill. This morning I will discuss elements of our financial results and capital allocation in greater detail, I will also discuss our 2017 financials scenarios. For a more complete explanation of our financial results of the year, please refer to the press release and the Form 10-K that we issued earlier today. Turning to slide six, 2016 service revenue of $942.6 million was $1.7 million higher than 2015. Our 22% non-Ocwen service revenue growth and higher property preservation services from Ocwen offset the expected loss in revenue from Ocwen’s declining portfolio, lower delinquencies and lower pricing for certain technologies. As you can see on slide seven, while 2016 service revenue was flat compared to 2015, adjusted pre-tax income attributable to Altisource of $117.2 million declined by 24%. This was primarily the results of increased investments to support the Company’s growth initiatives, service revenue mix changes and technology price concessions provided to Ocwen. Adjusted net income attributable to Altisource of $90.1 million was further impacted by an increase in the 2016 effective tax rate from 16% in 2015 to 29% in 2016. The effective tax rate increased primarily due to the $28 million loss on litigation settlement and lower pre-tax income margin. These items change the expected mix of taxable income across the jurisdictions in which we operate. While we anticipate the effective tax rate in 2017 will be approximately the same as 2016, we believe that over the next several years, margins will expand and our effective cash tax rate will return to a rate that is closer to Altisource's historical rate. As you can see on slide six, we generated $126.8 million of cash from operations, representing 13% of service revenue. Cash from operations would have been $140 million or 15% of service revenue, had we not…

Operator

Operator

Thank you [Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Mike Grondahl of Northland Securities. Your line is open.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

The first one, non-Ocwen revenues in the fourth quarter, I think came in at $53 million. And that was a chunk below the implied guidance of $80 million to $85 million. What happened there in the fourth quarter that it was actually below the third quarter?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

Mike, I think, the bottom line is we were behind schedule from a timing perspective. I think there's some non-Ocwen REO sales that we thought were going to take place in the fourth quarter that will probably fall into the first quarter, as well. But the bottom line is, we're behind. And I think, Mike, as we just -- it's probably worth taking a step back just for a minute, when you think about our results. Our service revenue in 2016 is the highest it's been in the Company's history. And at the same time, we're planning for Ocwen's revenue to decline in line with the normal run-off of its portfolio and lower delinquency rates. And we're also planning for resi to sell its remaining REO and non-performing loans in 2017. So, to address this, we've created these four initiatives that I've been talking to to you about for the last couple of years. And we've had very good success. If you look back at '14 over '13 and '15 over '14 with 40% plus non-Ocwen revenue growth, this past year which was disappointing, we had 22% non-Ocwen revenue growth. We think we've learned a lot about the sales cycle and how long it takes to onboard sell and onboard and then stabilize these new clients. And that's how we got to the 36% growth this year, and we're giving a lot more visibility. But to continue the growth, it takes investments in the business. And we think the investments that we're making make a lot of sense. And we spend a lot of time with the management team and with the board discussing these investments, and we believe these will support our long-term growth. At the same time, even though we had our higher service revenue in our history…

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

Is there a revenue target or range that you can call out associated with the investment spend of close to $60 million in 2016, and the $50 million in 2017 that you hope to achieve longer-term or medium-term?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

Mike, when you look at what I discussed, where we would like to be north of $1.5 billion in 2021 at 15% to 20% margins and operating margins, and you do math. A lot of that’s coming from the investments we’re making in the origination business, the FHA product, what we’re doing with Owners.com and Investability. And so if we’re successful with these investments, the return on those investments is well, well north of what you would think our weighted average cost of capital is well north of that.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

And then you mentioned, the press release, some Ocwen re-pricing. How much revenue was lost because of that, and what was that in particular?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

Sure. And I think we’ve talked about this in the past. So, late in 2015 and early 2016, when Ocwen was going through its financial difficulties and was very focused with all of its vendors on cost reductions, we agreed to reduce some of our fees on our technologies. And that probably cost us north of $20 million of pre-tax this year. And I am excluding the normal run-off, that’s just from the price change on the expected run-off.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

And then do you have a ballpark number for 2016 revenue related to RESI, and what amount is expected in 2017?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

Mike, we don’t break that out directly. But I can tell you, with respect to RESI, we would expect we’re going to sell the balance of their REO with us this coming year. And we provide services on their non-performing loans, which we believe RESI will sell this year that revenue will be partially offset by new revenue as we buy, renovate and sell homes to RESI, and as we grow the property management business there.

Operator

Operator

Thank you [Operator Instructions]. Our next question is from the line of Lee Cooperman of Omega Advisors. Your line is open.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

Michelle mentioned that the net debt was $284.6 million at year-end. Could you just give us the components, what was your cash balance at year-end? Is that number before or after the $28 million settlement? And what if the growth step and year-end shares outstanding?

Michelle Esterman

Analyst

Sure. Cash balance at the end of the year was $149.3 million, marketable securities was $45.8 million.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

That's your RESI investment, basically.

Michelle Esterman

Analyst

That's correct, and $479.7 million.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

And then the shares outstanding -- actual shares outstanding…

Michelle Esterman

Analyst

Yes, 18.7, 74 and that's not dilutive.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

And then what is the dilution effect on the shares and dilution?

Michelle Esterman

Analyst

Dilutive effect was about 1 million shares, 916,000.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

In terms of your 2017 expectations, which are like outlined on the page 23, what would the cash generation be as a business if you take your net income plus depreciation and amortization minus CapEx, and after your investment in business. Where do you think you’re generating free cash flow?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

Lee, after CapEx, which we estimate to be about $16 million, it's about $17 million.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

So $16 million of CapEx, and you said how much free cash flow of $60 million?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

No, I said that $70 million after the $28 million and after $16 million of CapEx. So the settlements the legal litigation settlement which has not been paid yet is $28 million and then we have $16 million of CapEx. So, after you subtract those two items, we estimate as the mid-point roughly $70 million.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

Do you have a game plan if you were to array the uses, acquisitions, debt retirements, stocks repurchase, dividends. Is there any sense of prioritization at the board level for the use of free cash flow at the present time?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

Yes, so we discussed that quite a bit with the board, Lee. I think as we discussed in our press release and in my remarks, we’re working now actively to refinance and extend the loan. And so that may require -- we anticipate that that they may require principle reduction as part of that extension. But we think extension makes a lot of sense for the Company. And so, we anticipate doing that. We will also look to, based on market conditions and the other needs and how we’re doing, at share purchases as well.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

So the dividends would be at the bottom end of the list of priorities?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

It's something, Lee, we continue to discuss with the Board. We haven't made a decision one way or the other. We're still having conversations…

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

Well, based on your response it would be debt reduction, reinvestment in the business, stock repurchase. I'm not arguing for any particular thing. I just want to understand the psychology of the management?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

So, I think that's a fair assessment.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

There's very little talk about -- Ocwen seems to be the rebirth. We kind of write that up for debt, and you keep emphasizing your non-Ocwen business. What's the chance that Ocwen could turn out to be a better client than we're thinking and that they return to some type of growth platform?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

Clearly, we're going to do everything we can on our side to help Ocwen in as part of that rebirth. I think from a planning perspective, we just make the assumption, and not necessarily educated, but we're planning for -- we're just assuming, which I think is the right thing to do in terms of how we run our business, that as toward the normal run-off. But of course we're hoping and optimistic that with all the progress Ocwen has been making that at some point they actually will turn around and start growing, which will be obviously fantastic for Altisource.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

On page 23, dealer education, you add investors net of tax per diluted share. I mean almost you can have saying what we didn't up people money, or we didn't pay interest on our debt and we add that back. These items that are under current accounting principles you could have capitalized and not expensed, and you're just trying to be conservative? Or they have to expense given the nature of their -- the nature of the expenditure?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

So, Lee, I think in some cases, they definitely would need to be expensed, because some of that's just operating losses and some of our newer businesses. In other cases, we're following our accounting policy, and others may look at that those same expenses differently. But we're following our policy, which doesn't capitalize them, and that’s historically how we've done it. Other companies may or probably could do it differently.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

A couple more questions, you mentioned on the $28 million litigation settlement, just to keep in mind. You said we did nothing wrong. We sell to get it out of the way with a distraction. $28 million is real money. I don't give somebody $28 million unless I did something wrong, or unless the uncertainty of the outcome was great enough to warrant that kind of settlement. Is this the class action? Is this one individual party? Who got the $28 million?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

So, it's going to be shareholders that own the stock between April 25th who purchased it or the stock between April 25, 2013 and December 21, 2014. But Lee, I think in the security litigation, I mean I've learned a lot about these types of cases over the last few months, something like one tenth of 1% ever make it to trial. And most of these ultimately settle. Look, it's very painful for us and the Board and our audit committee to agree ultimately to settle this case. But we think -- we absolutely think we did nothing wrong, but at the same time I've been around for a long time. And when you litigate you ultimately never know. And we start this with the best outcome for shareholders and for the Company.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

One last question, not to open up old wounds, I am trying to figure out you guys spent $200 million at over $100 a share to buy back stock. Obviously, it was in stake stocks 24, 25 now. Has the business outlook, as it stands today, worse or better than it was when you thought your stock was undervalued at $100?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

Lee, I mean I look at the business and look I personally have been buying the stock almost every quarter for the last few quarters. So, I'm a big believer in the Company. And we’re developing a diversified business with a diversified customer base through these initiatives. And we truly are transforming the Company. So, it's painful to go through a transformation like we’re going through. But I think we’re going to come out of it much better. We’re going to be much more -- look, if Ocwen kept growing, it would have been fantastic. If they didn’t went into any of those issues that they did in late, it was in late ’14, we probably look like heroes for buying the stock back at those prices. But it happened.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

But that’s not really my question. My question really is as you see the outlook to-date from where you are now, are you confident that we’re going to be bigger larger and more profitable company? Or is that still -- is that now a question mark?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

No, no absolutely. Lee, I won’t be -- my personal view is that yes. And it won’t be and up to ’17 I think you will start to see, ’18 will be somewhat similar to 2017 and you really start to see it going into ’19 and ’20. And now I'm just assuming Ocwen continues the run-off. If that changes that would change my answer. But I do believe we’re positioning ourselves to be diversified and growing.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

If I was you and own what you owned and you have missed our view, the support of shareholder owning what he owns. If you believe it when you’re working as refinancing, you would have basically worked at a refinancing and take the Company private, make the money for yourself at a fair price. The market cap of the Company at $30 -- $600 million and you look at the cash flow you generating and more importantly what you expect to generate a couple of years out, you’ll stop taking questions, so maybe it's like myself. You’ve answered the question. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Mike Grondahl of Northland Securities. Your line is open.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

Just a couple of more, the operating losses that you’re calling out, what are those relate to. Are those new businesses that you’re starting like Owners.com? Is it acquisitions that were previously acquired? Could you just provide a little bit of color on those?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

So, in some cases, its technology we’re developing. So for example, we developed a product called Trelix Connect to support our platform solution and originations, and that’s going to allow us to really scale our underwriting fulfillment and capital line business. And so we’re developing the technology there along with Vendorly and noteXchange. So, in some cases, it's technology development. In other cases, its losses on some of these nascent businesses, like Owners.com and Investibility. And lastly, we’re continuing to enhance and build-out the marketplace technology, which makes it very easy to order and pay for services through our various platforms.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

So, prior on acquisition are an headache when it comes to those operating losses?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

No, we’re pleased with -- look, with Owners and Investibility almost can’t even look at those like acquisitions, we’re really -- we’re leveraging what we bought in transforming those into something, it's to some degree very different than what they were. So, we are making investments in those businesses, and losing money. But I wouldn’t say that’s -- I wouldn’t attribute that to the acquisition, actually that’s our growth strategy.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

And then just to clarify, the $70 million or approximately $70 million of free cash flow, that includes all of the investment spending, correct. So, that’s a truly net number?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

That’s correct. That’s net of the $28 million litigation settlement and net of our estimated CapEx. At the mid-point roughly, although that’s -- so I think that number is slightly, if we do it slightly better than at this point to my recollection.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

Could you talk or spend a minute on Hubzu and your outlook there for 2017?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

So I think with Hubzu, there is couple of things going on. We’re winning clients, and we're providing REO auctions sales for clients. We're winning big-big focus of the Company, is providing services for FHA loans where the government essentially incentivizes loan servicers on the FHA loans. To auction the homes before they can waive them back to the government, and it stays -- if the auction is successful, it stays the servicer companion spot. So that's a big initiative of ours. We just signed one, I'd call a medium size clients and a smaller client in the fourth quarter and in January of this year. But that's -- when you think about where the lower FICO score borrowers are going today, if FHA loans. So we view that as very important and that's going to be through Hubzu. And then lastly, we've just signed two deals with top 10 banks to provide short-sell services to them, household names. And we haven’t started doing the work they won't ramp until the second quarter, probably late in the second quarter. But we're also be leveraging Hubzu to sell short-sell homes for them. So, I think that's where, at short sales if the FHA government auctions and the traditional REO auctions with new clients.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

And when you add that up, does Hubzu grow next year in total absorbing?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

I don’t have that in front of me. So I can't answer that question. I apologize.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Fred Small of Compass Point. Your line is open.

Fred Small

Analyst

On the investments, did those -- what sort of the path forward for those. Do they ramp down materially, or what's recurring? Do you need to do investing, how much of that do you need to keep investing in 2018?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

Michelle, correct me if I am wrong. My recollection those begin to come down in 2018. I think at the end of the day, when we look at lease based on how we see things today, 2018 is a similar year because you’re dealing with the same environmental trends around the normal run-off of Ocwen's portfolio, and the growth of our non- Ocwen. But we do see the investments coming down for two reasons; one, some of those businesses, either won't be losing as much money or they are making money; and two, some of those investments will go to more normal course as approached to build.

Michelle Esterman

Analyst

And I think when Bill talked about the 15% to 20% longer-term margins. There is some assumption of continued maintenance and building new functionality and better growth in with that.

Fred Small

Analyst

And the majority of those investments are coming or running through the mortgage services segment. Is that the right way to think about it?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

Yes. So I think today they’re running in mortgage services, some are running through technology. I would point out that we’re working very hard to change our segment structure, beginning with the first quarter, to make it much easier for you and our shareholders, for the analyst and the shareholders to follow what we’re doing. So we anticipate with the first quarter, we hope by the first quarter, to roll-out a new segment structure that more closely aligns to our four strategic initiatives.

Fred Small

Analyst

So that's going -- I think we talked about that much. But that's line-up on the way you’re reporting on the scenario, like revenues are going to line-up on the scenario assumptions, or…

Bill Shepro

Analyst

So, Fred, this is all subject to change. But the way we're thinking about it right now, it's going to line up between mortgage as one segment and real-estate as the second. And then some of the other costs that are smaller, we believe under the rules or guidelines, will move into corporate. So the real-estate segment broken down by those businesses and mortgage segment broken down by its businesses.

Fred Small

Analyst

I guess on -- maybe it doesn't matter since you're going to restate everything. But on the current basis, what margin do you think the mortgage services segment can stabilize at?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

Maybe Fred the better way to think about it is based on the four businesses I think that might be easier because that's the direction we're going. But when you think about the servicer solutions business, and again a lot depends on the mix because property preservation and inspection is lower margin and REO sales is very high margin. But that certainly could be in high 30s, Michelle, right?

Michelle Esterman

Analyst

Yes.

Bill Shepro

Analyst

…from an operating margin perspective. Origination solutions, which is not making margin today, we believe could go into the 20% plus margin. The consumer real-estate solutions and real-estate investor solutions, we think of as 20% margins. And you might ask me why isn't that much higher given they are all technology enabled. But think about inside of revenue is the commission you pay to real-estate agent, or 1099 real-estate agent. So they're taking, let's say, 1% commission or close to 1% commission. And so that brings down your margins from net cost of goods.

Fred Small

Analyst

And in the past I think you've put out slides on the natural deceleration or the expected run-off of Ocwen related revenue. Has anything materially changed in your expectations for that pace of run-off over the next four or five years?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

I think we just continue to -- I know in our model, just continue to assume a normal run-off of Ocwen's portfolio and the continuing decline in its delinquency rate. And I think we've been pretty accurate on that. I was surprised that this past year was that the number of preservation and inspection orders increased pretty dramatically, I think as all these municipalities are focused a lot more on the maintenance on both abandoned pre-foreclosure homes and REO.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Lee Cooperman of Omega Advisors. Your line is open.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

I want to come back to, when I'm hearing the $28 million is a one-time deal. So really what you're doing is you're saying you're generating cash at closer to $100 million. I think the 70 plus the 28, divide that by roughly 20 million shares, you're generating $5 a share free cash flow. You say over the next two years, your investments are becoming down. You say that you're optimistic about the outlook for your business over the next three or four years. Your stock is trading at under five times recurring cash flow. I didn't spend the $200 million at a $104 like you did. But if you believe everything you're saying, why we're sitting on $46 million of resi-stock when you could buy-back 10% of your own Company by swapping stock with resi, let them buy their own stock, take that money and buyback 10% of your Company that what seems to be bargain prices, or keep the resi stocking, fix your balance sheet and fix it -- there is nothing wrong with your balance sheet. Extend the maturities and then become more aggressive at 25 as you were more aggressive at a 100.

Bill Shepro

Analyst

Lee, I talked about this in past. Our investment in RESI, we’re being supportive of RESI, long-term we don’t -- our goal is at Altisources is not to be a holder of RESI stock. In the short-term, we’re being supportive. It also is an investment that we could get access to the cash fairly easily. We think it's very remote Lee that we would need to have the money, very linear. And we also believe that things are getting a lot better. But that said, even if it's just a really, really infinitesimal chance that there is existential risk, Lee. I want to make sure we can achieve what we’re super excited about.

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

Just taking additional risk for who for RESI or for Altisource?

Bill Shepro

Analyst

No, exit potential risk of something, Lee something -- I think the risk is very, very, very small to remote and it's getting more remote. But if something were to happen at Ocwen, I want to make sure, look I don’t -- I want to go through it, but if something were to happen, I want to make sure that no matter what we have the cash to support what we’re doing with these initiatives. And, Lee, and I hope that three or four years from now you’d tell me, you know what Shepro, you should have bought, but you should use all that cash to buy stock back, but it's…

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

No, not all the cash, we’re talking about 10% or 15% of the Company. We’re not talking about buying whole the company. Your argument is a good argument against taking the whole company private, and you and Bill or be leveraging up et cetera, et cetera. We’re talking about being more aggressive than you are now at 25% to the price that you were aggressive at before. And so, the question I ask myself and I don’t the answer, you know the answer better than me, is the business gotten 75% worse, which is what the stock has done, or is the market overreacted? You have 5 million shares short, when I look at the flow somebody really has a view that you’re melting ice cube. And today, they are on the right track. Hopefully, they won’t be in the right track two or three years now. I’ve made my point. I don’t want to monopolies the call. But I would say that some amount that we purchased at this depressed price given everything you’re saying, $5 of recurring free cash flow or grow over the next few years. And then I look at the improved situation in Ocwen, you got the possibility of monetizing RESI stock. There is lot of things that can go right, and this spokes to Ocwen things were uncertain, not when things are very clear at a 114 liquidus, now they don’t look so clear. Maybe now is the time to act, because the 75% decline in the price of stock to create that opportunity, that’s it.

Bill Shepro

Analyst

And by the way, Lee, and we did say we will look at buying shares back at the end of the [multiple speakers]…

Lee Cooperman

Analyst

No, I would do it, get that your debt package extended and then go for it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And that concludes our Q&A session for today. I’d like to turn the call back over to Michelle Esterman for any further remarks.

Michelle Esterman

Analyst

Thank you for joining our call today. We’ll talk to you next quarter.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude today’s program and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.