Earnings Labs

Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A. (ASPS)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Sat, Feb 24, 2018

$6.66

+6.22%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Altisource Fourth Quarter Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Indroneel Chatterjee, Chief Financial Officer. Please begin.

Indroneel Chatterjee

Analyst

Thank you, operator. We first want to remind you that the earnings release, Form 10-K, and quarterly slides are available on our Web-site at www.altisource.com. These provide additional information investors may find useful. I would like to remind you that our remarks today include forward-looking statements which involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. Please review the Forward-Looking Statements sections in the Company's earnings release, quarterly slides, and Form 10-K, as well as the Risk Factors contained in our Form 10-K. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. In our earnings release, quarterly slides, and Form 10-K, you will find additional disclosures regarding the non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in the appendix in quarterly slides. Joining me for today's call is Bill Shepro, our Chief Executive Officer. I would now like to turn the call over to Bill.

William B. Shepro

Analyst

Good morning and thank you for joining today's call. Before I discuss our 2017 results and our outlook for 2018, I want to highlight a few key factors that are set forth on Slide 3, which we believe are significant for our investors, lenders and other stakeholders. First, Altisource is a capital-light company with long-term customer contracts. Second, Altisource generates strong operating cash flow and has limited CapEx requirements. Third, our momentum of customer wins accelerated in Q3 and Q4 and continues into 2018. Fourth, we have been and are investing in our businesses to support our competitive positioning and the tremendous opportunities our newer businesses represent. Fifth, two competitors, one field services provider and the other in the online auction space, recently sold at very attractive multiples relative to our market valuation. And finally, we believe 2018 will be an inflection point for Altisource, with anticipated 2019 adjusted pre-tax income equal to or greater than 2018, with growth in the following years. Turning to our 2017 results and Slide 8, Altisource generated $900 million of service revenue and $2.80 of adjusted diluted earnings per share, excluding the $284 million net income tax benefit we recorded in the fourth quarter. This translates into $110 million of adjusted operating cash flow, or $100 million after CapEx. This is also after expensing approximately $16 million of investments in 2017, a number which should decline going forward. We believe these investments will generate long-term value for our shareholders and help us exploit the strong opportunities in our addressable markets. Service revenue was 105% at the midpoint of our scenarios. The higher service revenue was driven by greater revenue from Ocwen, partially offset by lower growth in revenue from non-Ocwen customers. With respect to non-Ocwen customers, we are disappointed that we did not meet…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Lee Cooperman of Omega Advisors. Your line is open.

Leon Cooperman

Analyst

I'm trying, Bill, to absorb all these numbers, so I may have missed a few things. But I have this view that when a company is buying back a lot of stock, it ought to tell its shareholders what are the things it is doing. Warren Buffett says, buying back stock in essence is you are trading against your shareholders and you want the shareholders to know exactly what you have in mind, when it sells below a certain price-to-book, when you guys have a certain amount of cash, et cetera, et cetera. Buyback has not been particularly accretive over the last three or four years, but you are persistent in doing it, and I have to assume that you know a lot more than I know. So, I'd like to know what do you think you are buying back when you are buying stock back presently, number one. Number two, the budget, the $2.20 is like a third of what you said you were going to earn two years ago at this time. So, there's been a big deterioration in earnings outlook. Yet you continue to buy back stock. So tell us a little bit about what you think the business is worth and why we are buying the stock back as opposed to returning this money to shareholders in a different form? That may be a principal question. And the follow-on question is, why do we hold the stock in RESI? Do we need it to have a business relationship? Because if you think that stock is so cheap, why don't we basically take that money and buy more of our own stock back, if you think the stock is so cheap? Those are the two questions. Thank you.

William B. Shepro

Analyst

Thanks Lee. Both good questions. So, with respect to the buyback, I think we are giving – this year, Lee, if you compare it to the information we have given in prior years, we are giving a lot more, one. We believe we are going to generate a lot of operating cash flow. Our CapEx is coming down. We believe that our adjusted pre-tax in 2019 is going to be stronger than 2018 and we believe we are going to have growth from there. So, if you take a look at the business, and we have generated roughly $100 million of operating cash flow this year and very attractive cash flow next year, and you compare that to where the stock is trading and our cash position, we think a very good use of cash is to buy back shares because we believe the Company is undervalued. If you compare that also to, there's been a couple of transactions, there's two companies that have sold, I believe it is public information, one is Auction.com in the Ten-X in the auction space, and the second is MCS in the field services space. The size of our underlying businesses, those two businesses inside of Altisource, are very comparable to those businesses, and they both sold at very attractive multiples. I think Auction.com may have sold in the 15 to 16 or higher – I mean, sorry, Ten-X multiple. And the field services business may have sold somewhere between 8x and 10x earnings. And if you take a look at sort of the underlying, those two underlying businesses, inside of Altisource they performed very well. Our field services business has grown its revenue sequentially every year since we founded that business and our REO or Hubzu business has grown sequentially at service revenue every year until this past year where they had a small dip. But if you take a look at that Slide 9 and look at all those customer wins, many of which are in both our field services and in our Hubzu business, that presents a very strong growth opportunity for both those businesses. So, long answer to your question, but when you look at sort of our go forward expectations with respect to the company and some of the market comparables that we have seen trade, we believe Altisource is undervalued and a good use of some of our excess cash is to buy shares back. Turning to your question with respect to RESI stock and why do we need to own it, I think I will repeat what I said in the past. The short answer Lee is, in the long-term we don't need to own RESI. It isn't critical to our strategy. They are an important customer for us right now, but we will continue to evaluate the timing as to when we should potentially get out of that position.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Mike Grondahl of Northland Securities. Your line is now open.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

The first question, Slide 12, the EBITDA from Ocwen and NRZ, it looks like it was increased from about $730 million to $770 million over the term. What's the delta behind $40 million more of EBITDA from that arrangement?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

It's Bill here. So the primary driver is our estimate of delinquencies going out the next several years, and that's increased how much we expect to generate from the portfolios. And again, that was partially offset by some of the impact from the Brokerage Agreement with NRZ. And the other thing is, we periodically update our forecast and this is our latest estimate based on our current view of the world.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

Got it, okay, that's helpful. And then, you still haven't nailed down the contract with NRZ. Can you kind of talk about why it's taking longer? What's the impact if you can't get that signed and kind of what's embedded in 2018 guidance under the arrangement?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

So Mike, first I'd say the relationship we have with NRZ is very good. We have a very strong working relationship as NRZ has acquired the MSRs as well as the right to the MSRs. The transition of the management of the REO to working for NRZ directly has gone very well and very smoothly. So the relationship is solid. I think NRZ was tied up with a couple of both the Ocwen acquisition and its announcement of Shellpoint kept it busy, but I'd also point out that in addition to the Services Agreement there are I think 9 or 11 underlying statements of work associated with it, and it just takes time to get it to finalize it. We fully anticipate, can't guarantee it, but we fully anticipate it's going to get finalized and the relationship again is very strong. In terms of the impact, Mike, we built it into the numbers we presented today, the $0.35 to $0.45 per share, a reduction in earnings this year than if we had not signed that agreement, and that's built into the numbers we presented today.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

Got it, okay. And then, you have the comment about 2019 EBITDA being at or above 2018. And if I just do the simple math, it looks like from the Ocwen-NRZ run-off, you have to make up roughly $50 million to $55 million of adjusted EBITDA. What's the one or two key drivers that's going to make that up for you sort of non-Ocwen, customer wins or more business with existing customers, like what's the one or two things we can focus on to fill that gap?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

So there's a couple of things, Mike. One, if you turn to that Slide 9, you could see sort of this embedded revenue. That's our estimate of the embedded revenue from our customer wins in 2017 and so far in 2018. Two is, we believe the investments, that $40 million of investments that we are planning to spend in 2018 will come down substantially in 2019. And we'll continue with our cost reduction initiatives, would probably be the third primary driver. So, growing the non-Ocwen revenue, reducing the investment spends, and continued focus on driving down the cost inside the Company.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

Got it. And last one and then I'll jump back in the queue, revenue per delinquent non-GSE loan fell kind of year-over-year for the first time. What caused that? Is that seasonality or…?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

Mike, so if you look, over the last couple of years we have been growing service revenue per delinquent loan. Typically the fourth quarter is your seasonally slower fourth quarter and that's some of what we're seeing in the fourth quarter this year. It's also impacted by some natural disaster. So you have delinquent loans for example in Texas associated with the hurricanes as well as in California associated with the wildfires. And what's happening, at least what we believe is happening, is that Ocwen is working with those borrowers to forbear or modify those loans, and so we're not getting the normal number of service orders that you would expect on a delinquent loan, and that's impacted the number to some degree as well.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

Got it, okay. Thank you.

William B. Shepro

Analyst

But I think the number is still a very healthy number, and between seasonality and the natural disasters we think it's a pretty good number.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

That makes sense. Okay, thanks Bill.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from [indiscernible] of GLG Partners. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

On the investments, we saw $60 million in 2017 going to $40 million this year. What is the reason of that declining, because your business is starting to turn around and make profit? And the second question is on the tax rate following the restructuring. Could you please confirm that your cash tax rate will be zero until you make basically $1.3 billion of pre-tax profit?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

Sure. So, with respect to the investments, they are coming down as we have completed some of the work associated with the technology. So the amount to spend on that work is coming down. Also we'll have some improvement in the underlying business. So, for example in Owners, we think the loss won't be coming down much but we are going to be substantially growing the revenue this year, and we think as you look into 2019, that loss will come down in a very meaningful way. So, it's a combination of completing the investments and then executing on some of our cost savings initiatives that we have done in the fourth quarter of 2017, getting the benefit of that going into 2018. With respect to tax rate, in Luxembourg our cash taxes are essentially 0%. But keep in mind we also operate in India, which I think, Michelle, correct me if I'm wrong, it's roughly a 35% tax rate. In the U.S. with state taxes it's around 24% to 25% tax rate. So, yes, in Luxembourg though, our earnings in Luxembourg from a cash tax perspective will be essentially zero.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Kevin Barker of Piper Jaffray. Your line is open.

Pierce Dever

Analyst

This is actually Pierce Dever on for Kevin. My first question revolves around stock based comp expense. Do you guys currently have any estimates for that amount in 2018?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

So, are you asking about – just can you repeat the question? I didn't catch it.

Pierce Dever

Analyst

So, first, just stock based comp expense, if you have any estimates for…

William B. Shepro

Analyst

Yes, I think if you look in the presentation in the reconciliation tables, you could find that.

Pierce Dever

Analyst

Okay. And then next, was there gain on the repayment of debt?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

There was a modest gain on the repayment of debt in the fourth quarter, I think $0.25 million [indiscernible] roughly.

Pierce Dever

Analyst

Okay, great. And then you mentioned…

William B. Shepro

Analyst

By the way, we did also incur, just as an aside, we did also incur some one-time expenses associated with our cost reduction initiatives in the fourth quarter and the refinancing of the debt – sorry, [indiscernible] refinancing the amendment.

Pierce Dever

Analyst

Okay. And then you mentioned that there could be an increase in the stabilized annual revenue of about $66 million from recent client wins. Can you help us quantify the expected margin for that business?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

If you think about inside of Servicer Solutions, it's very attractive margins, and I think we are operating at a gross profit margin in the high 30s, 37% I think, roughly 36%, 37%. And we would expect –look, it depends on the mix, so with the online auction mix business being higher-margin and the field services being lower margin, so keep that in mind, so it depends on the mix of business. And then with respect to Origination Solutions, which is a smaller percentage of our growth this coming year, on the margin we think it's 20% to 30%.

Pierce Dever

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And then just regarding, two quick ones regarding the NOL. Can you just walk me through the mechanics of how you are able to produce the $1.3 billion of NOLs in one of the subsidiaries, given that income has been just over $600 million on a GAAP basis since 2009?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

I'm going to have Michelle walk you through that.

Michelle Esterman

Analyst

Sure. So, you may remember in 2014 we contributed one of our Luxembourg subsidiaries to another one of our Luxembourg subsidiaries, and this transaction was recorded at the then fair value. And so, then when we did the merger in December of 2017 of two of our subsidiaries, that was also recognized at fair value. And the fair value in December of 2017 was significantly lower than the fair value in 2014. And so the difference between those fair values triggered a loss and it is $1.3 billion and can be used over the next 17 years.

Pierce Dever

Analyst

Okay, great. And then, you mentioned in your prepared comments just regarding the use of the NOL, I'm not a clunking train, but is it possible to transfer the NOL in Luxembourg to U.S. entities or no?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

The Luxembourg is an offset against the Luxembourg. The Luxembourg NOLs are an offset against Luxembourg earnings.

Pierce Dever

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks for taking the questions.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Ramin Kamali of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Ramin Kamali

Analyst

I guess I wanted to get more clarity on these kinds of investments that you have made to kind of building the platform, so about $60 million. How is that split between the mortgage and the real estate markets? And then kind of related to that, based on your growth trajectory, when do you expect to breakeven on a gross margin basis in the Real Estate segment? And I have some follow-ups as well.

William B. Shepro

Analyst

So, Ramin, we don't break out the investments between the different businesses, but they were primarily associated with essentially the losses in the Owners business, which we are calling an investment, and then other investments in technologies that we – maybe most companies might capitalize and depreciate, we expensed, and that's in our Origination Solutions business and our Real Estate Investor Services business, and then some minor corporate investments as well. We anticipate that those investments will come down, are coming down substantially this year, and further going into 2019.

Ramin Kamali

Analyst

Are those showing up on the gross margin side or in the SG&A side?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

The investments, they are showing up in both places but primarily in gross margin.

Ramin Kamali

Analyst

So any thoughts on when you expect to breakeven in the Real Estate segment? Is it a 2019 event or [indiscernible]?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

No, the primary loss is really coming from Owners, which we are very excited about and bullish on, and that business we expect to double revenue in 2018, Ramin. And in 2019, we think we can bring – look, based on our business planning as we see it today, we think we could cut the loss quite substantially in 2019. And again, if we are making a lot of progress and positive marketing contribution and reducing the loss quite substantially, we may look to go to other markets which could potentially cost us some money, but we think it would be at that time very good for both our lenders and our equity holders that we do that.

Ramin Kamali

Analyst

Okay. A couple of additional questions, so I understand you're not going to be a Luxembourg tax payer. Of the $18 million of taxes you paid in 2017, how much of that was in Luxembourg?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

Ramin, just give us a second please. Ramin, we'd have to look at the filing, roughly about $4 million and some of that was related to prior years.

Ramin Kamali

Analyst

Okay. And then regarding your credit ratings, it seems like you have been carrying the corporate family and the facility rating as a B3 for quite some time now. What are the agencies looking for you to do to kind of increase that rating? And once the transfer of MSRs from Ocwen to NRZ happens, would you expect an upgrade or what are your thoughts on that?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

Look, Ramin, you could imagine, we meet with the agencies on a regular basis. So, I don't know that we want to comment much more than what's in the reports they issued. But I think from our perspective, if we continue to diversify our client base, continue to have very attractive cash flow characteristics, we have done a decent job of bringing down our leverage this past year, I think all those things over time will help us.

Ramin Kamali

Analyst

And as far as cash flow use goes, I think you said you're going to spend about $30 million or so towards share repurchases for 2018. Should we expect a similar amount of cash use for debt paydowns or how do you think about deleveraging here?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

So we are going to continue to look at debt paydowns but we weren't prepared today to disclose a number.

Ramin Kamali

Analyst

Okay.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Scott Burg of Deer Park Road. Your line is open.

Scott Burg

Analyst

Most of my questions related to the investments, but along the lines of the debt, and we have a few years and understand that it's [indiscernible], but is this something we are looking to try to tackle sooner rather than later?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

I think with respect to the debt, look, we are always paying close attention to the markets and evaluating when is the right time to go back to the market. So, I think we're going to continue to do that, and more to come.

Scott Burg

Analyst

Okay. That's all I got. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Lee Cooperman of Omega Advisors. Your line is open.

Leon Cooperman

Analyst

I want to go back to the repurchase question. But you alluded to on the call that you have some businesses within Altisource that are materially misvalued. If you look at other public companies or private companies, they have done transactions in this space. One of the criteria I look at when I look at stock repurchase for a company is, I see most businesses, and I think particularly your business given the consolidation taking place in the mortgage space these days, have two values, the so-called auction market value which is the price that you and I pay for 1 share or 1,000 shares or 100,000 shares, and so-called private market value, that price a strategic financial investor would pay for the entire business. Are you guys confident that the shares you are buying back are being booked back at a price well below the private market value of this business, if you elected to sell the business through a strategic or financial buyer?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

I mean, Lee, we believe – I think just the answer is, yes. I mean, we believe we are buying the stock back at a very attractive price.

Leon Cooperman

Analyst

May the force be with you. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have another question from Mike Grondahl of Northland Securities. Your line is open.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

Did you guys highlight kind of an effective tax rate for 2018, 2019, or any sort of range we should be thinking about on the income statement?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

So Mike, in our scenarios we estimated at 30%. But I'd tell you, there were a lot of moving parts with respect to both U.S. taxes and Luxembourg taxes and there may be a level of conservatism. It may be lower.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

Got it, okay.

William B. Shepro

Analyst

But in our scenarios we used 30%.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

And just going back to the agreements with NRZ, when you do sign or if you sign a contract with them, do you expect that to affect revenue or profitability all at the business or that's sort of in these numbers?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

Yes, it's in these – by the way, the impact of revenue is primarily associated with the Cooperative Brokerage Agreement, and that's in these numbers. The Services Agreements, we don't anticipate that they will impact revenue.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

Got it, okay. And then RESI REO sales, is there much of that left, is anything in 2018?

William B. Shepro

Analyst

Mike, you know it's probably better to ask that question on RESI's call. We are clearly very aligned with the RESI CEO George Ellison's objectives there, but you probably should ask him. I'm not sure we should disclose that here.

Mike Grondahl

Analyst

Got it. Okay, that's all I had. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]

William B. Shepro

Analyst

Great. Thanks everyone for joining the call. We appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's program. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a good day.