Earnings Labs

AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU)

Q1 2011 Earnings Call· Wed, May 11, 2011

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Transcript

Stewart Bailey

Management

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our presentation of our quarterly results for the quarter ended 31st of March, 2011. Before we begin, I'd like to go through some very basic safety procedures. In the event of an emergency, a siren will sound, information will be broadcast over the building's public address system. Please move quickly, but in an orderly way out to the nearest exits and then gather in the open space on Miriam Makeba Street to the west of Turbine Hall, where our safety wardens will advise of additional procedures. Turning to the presentation, the format will be as follows. Mark Cutifani will review the company's performance over the quarter before Venkat walks through the financials, Mark will wrap up and take questions. We do have several members of our executive team present who will be available to answer questions either in the Q&A or after the presentation. It's also appropriate for me to acknowledge the presence of 2 of our nonexecutive directors, Mr. Frank Arisman and Mr. Bill Naim, who are present as well. And then one of the highlights I know for all of you at the presentation, I'm just going to go through our Safe Harbor statement. Certain statements made in this communication including, without limitation, those concerning the economic outlook for the gold mining industry, expectations regarding gold prices, production, cash costs and other operating results, growth prospects and outlook of AngloGold Ashanti’s operations, individually or in the aggregate, including the completion and commencement of commercial operations of certain of AngloGold Ashanti’s exploration and production projects, and completion of announced mergers and acquisition transactions, AngloGold Ashanti’s liquidity, capital resources, and capital expenditure and the outcome and consequences of any litigation or regulatory proceedings and AngloGold Ashanti’s Project ONE performance targets, contain certain…

Mark Cutifani

Management

Thanks very much, Stewart. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us today. As you know, the first quarter is traditionally the weakest quarter for us as a business with our South African operations restaffing after the Christmas break. Still, we turned in a strong performance in what proved to be a challenging period with a year-on-year performance in South Africa considerably actually ahead of the signed period in 2010, as both the leadership work that Robbie and Mike have lead and despite torrential rainfall at Sunrise Dam in Australia, we also managed to hold our initial guidance of around 1.04 million ounces with a strong contribution coming from both our continental African and our Americas operations. Total cash costs for the period reflected the physical performance level on that. There were some adjustments due to fuel prices, with total cash costs around $706 an ounce. Adjusted headline earnings of USD $203 million more than tripled from $61 million in the first quarter of 2010, showing strongly away from the removal of the hedge book and the continued rise in the gold price. You'll also notice that cash flow from operating activities which, at $515 million for the quarter, is certainly much more significant than last year's number of $179 million. At the same time, I should also point out that not all the South African operations were affected by the slow restart after the break. Kopanang managed to grow output and reduce costs, which shows what can be achieved in a difficult environment. If you recall this time last year, we talked about Kopanang being one of those areas of key challenges for us, and it's very gratifying to seeing the improvements that are being achieved over the last few months. I'm very happy with the progress that's being…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'll be covering the following 3 areas in today's presentation: first quarter's financial results, free cash flow and balance sheet and outlook for the second quarter. Adjusted headline earnings of $203 million represents a record first calendar quarter earnings for AngloGold Ashanti. This comes on the back of full exposure to spot price, production of 1.04 million ounces in line with guidance and reasonably well managed costs, the latter, however, being adversely impacted by local currency strength, higher fuel prices and royalties on the back of an improved spot price. Adjusted headline earnings per share amounted to USD $0.53 or ZAR 3.67 for the quarter. The first calendar quarter is always the company's weakest seasonal quarter, given the slowest startup in South Africa. This was further compounded by the floods at Sunrise dam. This quarter-on-quarter drop in volume of some 100,000 ounces and higher effective tax rates were primary reasons for adjusted headline earnings being $91 million lower than the fourth quarter of 2010. The total unit cash cost of $706 an ounce which includes a deferred stripping accounting charge of $20 an ounce although represents a 5% increase quarter-on-quarter should be contextualized with a 9.5% drop in units of production over the same period. As Mark mentioned, the South African region deserves a special mention both in terms of production and notably in cost in containing total cash cost at ZAR 143,256 a kilogram, which is only 5% higher than the previous quarter despite a 16% drop in production quarter-on-quarter. Notably, there's a ZAR 7,900 a kilogram or 5% lower when compared to the total cash costs incurred during the first quarter of 2010. Looking at margins, the group's margins for the first quarter on a cash cost basis were 49.2%…

Mark Cutifani

Management

Thanks, Venkat. And as usual, before I move straight into the exploration and before I leave the operations performance, I should point out that we have Richard Duffy, head of Continental Africa here, and Robbie Lazare. With the strong improvements we've seen in the South Africa over the last 3 quarters and the tremendous improvements, Richard had to buy Robbie a couple of Bs at the end of each quarter, as we obviously target delivering on our commitments, and I think it's nice to say that Robbie has actually had to buy Richard a B in the last quarter, given the TauTona incident and I must acknowledge the Continental Africa team actually hitting their targets for the first time, and they've done some hard work and whilst lots of challenges still ahead of us. So we've got to acknowledge some bloody hard work and some good efforts, and we're very pleased with the progress they're making, albeit we're not where we want to be, but by the second half, I think you'll really start to see some performance coming through that I expect we're all going to be very proud of. With the review of the financial and operating aspects of the quarter caveat, I'll take you through the work underway by our project and exploration teams to secure the long-term future for this business. This map is just a reminder of the extent of our global exploration footprint, the territories we control and the new fronts we're exploring. We are talking about exploration, we're not talking about political control, obviously. On Greenfields exploration, our greenfields team this quarter were also constrained by heavy rainfall in Australia. So the drilling wasn't as much as we'd like, so we do expect to see strong results over the next couple of quarters…

Stewart Bailey

Management

All right, and with that, we'll take questions. Normal drill, your name and institution that you are from. We'll start off with Allan and go from there. Allan Cooke - JP Morgan Chase & Co: It's Allan Cooke from JPMorgan. A few questions, if I may. Any contingent liability or any indication on the quantum of plane silicosis following the high court really recently, will you be making any contingent claim disclosure, or is there anything you can say on that matter at this point? And then in the mobile, we've seen some use flow on indigenization or empowered Legislation that's in the pipeline and what will the impact be for you there at Navachab? And then just lastly on your guidance for 2011, is there any change in expectation for costs and for production given the loss of TauTona, Geita in the second quarter with the mill shutdown and the impact of the rainfall at Sunrise Dam? Have you changed your expectations for 2011, given that you're going to have quite a slow first half of the calendar?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Sure. First question on disclosure on contingent liability, if you look at Page 23, we have included the disclosure there. And Mark will go through the rest of the questions.

Mark Cutifani

Management

Allan, just looking at potential exposure, I just take you back, the most important thing to recognize in the constitutional court ruling, there were 2 or 3 points to acknowledge. Firstly that the constitutional court confirmed the right of an individual to be able to launch a claim, even though they've had compensation payments. So the most -- there are 2 most important aspects of the ruling: One, acknowledging the right of an individual to lodge a claim; and secondly, they made the observation that they felt the de moire [ph] compensation system was not as effective as the general compensation system being called [ph]. They made those 2 clear observations. The actual merits of the case have not actually been heard. So there is still a lengthy complex and involved legal process that actually addresses the merits of the specific claims. Now I think they are the key points that came out of the judgment. So I think we still have a long way to go in those conversations. We're obviously doing homework based on those judgments to look at those sorts of issues and so there's still a lot more work to be done. But at this stage, it's a relatively small step in a very long process that is quite technically involved from a legal point of view. So for us, we think it's too early to call, and so we are working with our industry colleagues and with the government on addressing the second point that was raised in that decision, which is the nature of the compensation system. So for us, it's really an industry conversation around the things that were highlighted in the constitutional court ruling. The actual merits of the case were a separate conversation that still has a long way to work…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

A little on the cost front, as you know, we issued the guidance at the start of year based on a rand exchange rate of ZAR 7.11 for the year average, and also fuel at around $95 a barrel. The exchange rates and fuel have been extremely volatile. We do put out sensitivities in our disclosure for every 1% swing in the local currencies, assuming all of them move in tandem. It's on $5 an ounce to cash cost and for every $10 movement in the price of fuel per barrel, it's around $6 an ounce in terms of cash cost. So you can actually modify it accordingly.

Unknown Analyst -

Management

As you put it, the future for gold looks great, and it's gone blasting through 15,000 ounce, but over the last few weeks, you've seen gold equities come off pretty much across the board. Do you have explanation for that as to why that's happening?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Brendan, It's an interesting phenomenon. Obviously we pay very close attention to it. My personal view would be that -- and we've made this observation 3 years ago that we felt that more and more people would focus on underlying value creation and the performance management teams in creating value in the gold business, hence our focus on hedge or restructuring, the operations restructuring. The fact that we're now delivering a return on capital employed around 20% would be the key differentiators in the market. So we think we're still seeing that change to some degree in the nature of the market. However, what we think the most recent trend is more about is thinking is people aren't quite sure whether the gold price is actually going to stick at these levels. I think that's more the issue in that short-term period would be our sense. But that's a personal view. I think that's more the view at the moment than necessarily the first point. I think we've seen the trend for some time. But our view is there's a real question whether people believe the current strength in the gold price is based on fundamentals. We think it is, certainly at the $1,300 to $1,500 range, we think that's backed by the fundamentals. Anything above $1,500 at the moment is more about a view on the financial markets. So I think there's still a bit of time to be played out on that, but certainly we think the pressure points in the year, inflation in the U.S -- we think all the pressure points are there on the financial side, but I think there are just generally different views on whether that will come to bear in terms of gold prices up to $1,500. I think that's the debate at the moment. That would be my best guess.

Unknown Analyst -

Management

Asking about what Eritrea, what exactly are you expecting to get there? Why have you gone in there if [indiscernible] because the lead have been, what, 10 years ago. So you're a bit of a Johnny-come-lately. What is it that you think you're still going to get there? Are you likely to stick to your organic express work or are you thinking of maybe taking a stake and somebody's already gone in there ahead of you?

Mark Cutifani

Management

So I'll give you a statement of the obvious. Lots of gold. So that's what we're looking to follow. But to be more serious, I think we have Robbie in the audience. I might ask Robbie if he could wax lyrical for one minute on the targets. But it is an organic strategy, so it's not an acquisition strategy. It's an organic view of the potential for gold in those regions, but to put proper shape around that, I'll hand across to Robbie.

Robbie Lazare

Management

About 2 years ago, we've been watching what's been going on there for a long time, probably 4 or 5 years. There's a lot of ground available that we rank as priority ground, and we've picked ground in our own right, 3,000 or 4,000 square kilometers, and have other applications currently in and a lot of the projects that are currently there don't fit our criteria and we believe that there's considerable scope on underexplored parts verified to make new discoveries.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

On major structural trends.

Robbie Lazare

Management

Yes, on major structural trends.

Mark Cutifani

Management

So there's lots of gold [indiscernible] there's lots of smoke in terms of gold.

Robbie Lazare

Management

There's smoke on a number of -- on 2 of the tenements that we're working on. And as you're aware -- and we're primarily focusing on the origin of gold, but as you're aware, some of the discoveries that have been made here at Charles is volcanogenic massive sulfide ones which are polymetallic and in some cases black gold rich. So we'll see what value propositions those present to the tenements and decide how to treat those. I hope that answers your question.

Mark Cutifani

Management

So it's the environment looks very attractive. We don't let Robbie say too much, because we don't want to give too much away to our competitors. But we believe that the structures and the environment is conducive to gold mineralization, and we think it's generally been underexplored probably for a whole range of social and other reasons and we think now is the time to get in early, as we did with Colombia.

Unknown Analyst -

Management

[indiscernible] the political aspect of working in that area. As I understand it, there's a little bit of uncertainty at the moment as to what's going on between [indiscernible] and the Eritrean government over the valuation of the stake that the government is to take in Eritrea, in the new -- in the fissure mine. What's your view on the political and practical side of operating in that country?

Mark Cutifani

Management

It's a good question. And if I could -- I'm not privy to the conversation between the government and NAVSA [ph], so we'll put that aside. But we're aware of the nature of the agreement, and I'll leave it at that. In our case the reason we've gone with the Thani family as a joint venture partner, is they have intimate knowledge of the politics and the people in these key regions and the most important dialogue we have with our joint venture partner is to understand the desires of the people in the country, the nature of the agreements that need to be put in place for them to be successful and when there have been issues, what are the lessons that can be learned to help restructure the contract and I make a very important point. Many of these contracts have been developed in countries where petrochemical, petro oil structures have been the model for how deals should be structured and the difference between oil and hot rock exploration is in oil, it's risk all up front. But once you've drilled a hole and you put a hole through an oil deposit, the operating costs are minuscule compared to the revenues that you generate. And so constructing deals that take a big proportion of the production is doable in that environment and this is the mistake the Australian government made when they put their tax together. They we're thinking about a petro type structure when in our industry, the grades are quite variable. The margins are certainly much slimmer on an operating base. So the nature of the contract that you put together with government needs to reflect the very different structure. The Thani family got that when we described it to them, putting the joint venture together. So together, we believe we can talk to and develop relationships and agreements that are far more appropriate for the environments in which we're working in. That's why we went as a joint venture partner, for someone that really knows the politics, the relationships and the nature of the commercial issues that need to be addressed to come up with the right answers for both parties. I hope that answers them.

Unknown Analyst -

Management

I've got 3 questions. I'm just wondering one, you're Q2 production figures, those seem pretty flat, I'm just wondering why that's the case. Just to come back to the gold price, you say $1,300 to $1,500 you see supported by fundamentals, but you're saying above that's kind of debate among the financial markets. I'm just wondering where you see the gold price going, say, for the rest of this year or next year and why? And then I just wanted to come back to what you were saying earlier about the constitutional court case and compensation. I'm just wondering, in terms of the issues surrounding silicosis and possible lawsuits going forward, I mean do you see this as a very long and sort of protracted legal process? Or do you think it could be wrapped up relatively quickly?

Mark Cutifani

Management

So let me have a crack. Firstly, on the Q2 forecast, as we access the pit at Geita, we weren't actually getting to the really high-grade zones until the second of the year. In fact, we've made a very conscious decision to try and do that major work on the mill while we're in lower -- while we're in a period where we've got the lower grades. So we said if we can get that done in the second quarter, what it really does is gives us a big lift second quarter and in going into 2012. So for us, it's about when's the right time to do it, lower grades and picking up the momentum through the second half of the year as we go into 2012. So a very conscious decision to get that integrity working out of the way as quickly as we could which wasn't -- it was planned to be a much smaller program 6 months ago but in doing the work and doing the detailed integrity work, we found more problems, so we're going to fix them and make sure we get a strong lift in the second half. So that was very conscious. Robbie and his team have still been appropriately conservative after the first quarter in making sure that we've got all the key issues balanced, and don't forget that we'll have another 3 months under there built in terms of the Project ONE implementations and the work Robbie's doing in opening accesses up and he gets the refrigeration stuff sorted out in opening. So that's a very important piece of work in South Africa over the next 3 months. In Obuasi, the work of the task force starts to impact in the second half. We're working on a new leach pad…

Unknown Analyst -

Management

Just a follow-up. So I think what you're saying, though, is that next year you'll seen an average of $1,550 an ounce, is that correct?

Mark Cutifani

Management

I won't give you a hard number, because there's so much volatility in the market, you'll come back and say, "But Cutifani, you said." But what I'm saying is the fundamentals are right and the ranges are all right and I think certainly the circumstances could support that sort of cost level, but we always watch the market fairly carefully and we try not to lock ourselves into the range, because there's so many factors that contribute. But the fundamentals are strong is the main point. On the third question, as I said to Allan, the clear thing we believe is for the industry to work together now, because this issue is one that we have to work on for the industry based on the constitutional court feedback in terms of the compensation system. So that's where the focus will be. There's been no real change to any of the other factors. This is still likely to be a long and protracted process and judging what the impacts would be, there's still more work to be done but again, we have to go through and work with our colleagues in the industry. And I think from an industry perspective, if I could put my chamber of minds hats on, or hat on, the quicker we work together with the government to find the right remedy so that South Africa has the right compensation system for this type of thing as identified by the constitutional court, the better effect everybody and I think that's an important issue for us and the government to work through and by the way, for the unions as well. So I think we're all committed to making sure that gets repaired and that will be, I think, where you'll see the key focus and I would hope that it's months, not longer than that, because I think that needs to be resolved quickly so that everybody can move forward.

Stewart Bailey

Management

All right. I think that's more or less it. We've run over just by a bit. We will be outside and available for any questions should you need to ask them. Thank you very much for coming, and we'll see you all again in 3 months.