Earnings Labs

AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 19, 2014

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Transcript

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Thank you, Stewart. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Before starting with our quarterly results, if I can take some out to do a quick introduction of our newly elected Chairman of the Board, Sipho Pityana, who is sitting here. Sipho if we can request you to stand up, so that people can see you. So on Monday, when the board met, given Mr. Mboweni's announcement, that he wishes to serve the period for which the shareholders elected him as a director until the May AGM and then stand down and to relinquish his office of the chairman, the board unanimously elected Sipho Pityana as the new Chairman of the Board and also elected Professor Wiseman Nkuhlu as the Lead Independent Director. As you can see from the slide, Mr. Pityana comes with some excellent credentials. Particularly, he has been with the board since 2007, and importantly chaired one of the most difficult committees, which we have -- which is in terms of challenges, which is the safety, health and environment committee. And under his chairmanship, we have seen our safety, health and environmental performance improve over the years. Both Sipho Pityana and Professor Wiseman Nkuhlu come with a wealth of experience for their respective roles. And we certainly welcome both in their new roles. And we thank Mr. Mboweni for his support over the last 4 years. Moving quickly onto our results, if you can change the slide. Just to recap where we started off, sometimes towards the middle of last year. We presented what our strategy was, and the message hasn't changed. It's simple and it takes the business back to basics, which is sustainable cash flow improvement and returns. And the 5 building blocks were the following: One, during the tough times, we have a core and committed…

Richard N. Duffy

Management

Thank you, Venkat. I'll start with a breakdown of our improved quarter-on-quarter all-in-sustaining costs that Venkat outlined, which reduced from $1,155 an ounce to $1,015 an ounce in quarter 4, a reduction of $140 an ounce. The biggest contribution came from improved operating performance that Venkat has described, the results of our higher production and benefits of low corporate costs assisted by favorable inventory movements in the last quarter. Our all-in-sustaining cost for the full year at $1,174 an ounce, which is 10% better than our all-in-sustaining cost over the first half of the year, compares very favorably to the target of $1,200 an ounce that we announced in our June quarterly. If I turn to our earnings reconciliation, we have again shown normalized adjusted headline earnings given the significant realized fair value gain of $567 million on the conversion of our mandatory bond in quarter 3 and other once-off adjustments in quarter 3 and 4 as set out in the table of -- on Page 3 of our quarterly report. The improved operational performance is reflected in our normalized adjusted headline earnings increasing by $54 million to $164 million for the quarter, which is a 49% improvement over quarter 3, despite a 4% lower gold price. The improved operational performance is driven by increased volumes in higher grades, which Mike, Ron and Graham will touch on in their presentations later on. Lower net finance costs of $14 million are the result of bonds maturing being early settled in quarter 3 together with capitalized interest, partially offset by the increased finance costs on our new $1.25 billion 7-year bond. Lower corporate and exploration costs further contributed to our improved normalized adjusted headline earnings for the quarter. On financial flexibility, quarter 4 saw the continuation of our prudent and proactive balance…

Mike P. O'hare

Management

Thank you, Richard, and good morning to everyone. Graham Ehm and I have agreed that the cricket is still [indiscernible]. We'll talk about that probably next quarter. I think the region had a solid quarter with the production improving, which helped the year's results. We managed to tick the 4 important big boxes, being safety, cash flow, production and costs. And if I touch briefly, Venkat mentioned the safety results, we almost achieved 200 days fatality free. And some of our mines are now measuring their interval between fatals in terms of years. And it's not so long ago that we used to measure it in terms of months and quarters. And particularly the efforts in the Vaal River mines by those managers and their teams needs to be commended. On the production side, we had an increase of 10,000 ounces quarter-on-quarter. If you analyze the results, we had a slight slippage in our volume. As you all know, we're pushing blast frequency as one of the productivity measures. This came off slightly in the quarter, but the yield increased enough to cover that decrease and some more. The yield increase, I'm going to talk to you a little bit later when I come to a slide around Moab Khotsong. But the yield increase is driven across the piece by a slight increase in mining grade across the region, but there's quite a significant decrease in the dilution factors, such as stope width and our clean mining drives, which is merely decreasing the amount of inventory we leave underground. I think we did mention this level of performance Q1 will be a little bit tougher for us. So really we need to get beyond the startup piece and back into these kind of results as quickly as we can in…

Ron W. Largent

Management

Thank you, Mike. And good morning, everyone. I think I would like to start out the conversation today, before I get into the regions and talk about the outcomes the quarter -- the outcome of the cost management side that we spoke about the last couple of quarters here. In August, I asked you to watch the outcomes, as this would be the best way to measure our progress as it relates to change. And I think we talked about a project we call Project 500. But in reality, it was a commitment where the management team had to remove $100 to $120 an ounce out of our business by cost management. As you can see from the information that we presented, in general, we've come from about $900 an ounce to about $750 in midway through 2013, until the end of 2013. And there is many reasons that, that is where it's at. And instead of going into those things, what we've done is said about $50 to $55, we've calculated on our cost rationalization. And we could get into that in considerable detail but that may be contract mining work or efficiencies work or actually, redoing contracts, cyanide consumption, whatever that may be. So we're trying to keep that in context. In general, we are saying the $150 an ounce reduction is about 1/3 of that is right on paying attention to our operating cost. So taking these outcomes into account, and the outlook for 2014, presented by Richard, which was between $1,025 and $1,075, that $100 commitment is within that outlook. So we've already put that into the budget, and feel fairly confident we will be able to execute that. So that's just a discussion on the operating cost side that I think is important, because there's…

Graham J. Ehm

Management

Thank you, Ron. Good morning, all. I'm very pleased to be able to talk to you today about our projects. No doubt, you've been following the pipeline of projects for AngloGold Ashanti over the last few years. And we will note in the results today that they are now making a significant contribution to our business. First of all, for Kibali. Following the first gold pour in September last year, the ramp up of the oxide circuit has gone quite well resulting in production of 88,000 ounces in quarter 4, or 40,000 ounces AngloGold share. Construction is continuing. Construction of the hard rock sulphide circuit is proceeding well. And we will see commissioning of this circuit in quarter 2 this year. Along with the Nzoro hydropower station which we will closely follow and also commission in quarter 2. During the year, exploration has been particularly successful. And there was also some increase, some 17% to almost 10 million ounces AngloGold share. Development of the twin declines is progressing very well with first underground ore now expected in quarter 4 of this year. The shaft has reached the depth of 195 meters and now is into the main sink phase. This is quite a long activity which will continue to a depth of about 760 meters. And full fit out of the shaft, leading to production and use of the shaft will take until 2017. At Tropicana, Tropicana's ramp-up has gone quite well and in quarter 4, produced 95,000 ounces or about 66,000 ounces our share. Plant run time is currently about 90%. And there's plans to steadily improve this to about 95% during the first 6 months of the year. Construction is fully complete. And all of the contractors have demobilized. And we haven't seen any surprises during the project…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

Thank you, Graham. To conclude where we started off, we remain on course regarding our strategy. And as you can see from the slide there, which is rather crowded, but it will clear in your printout, delivered what we promised in May of last year. We have had some very good runs on the board across the 5 pillars and to name a few, the leadership team was quickly established, focused. On safety, we've had our best ever safety performance in our history with 80% of the operation setting new records. Environmental incidents have reduced considerably. And sustainability under David's leadership has been better integrated into the operations of the business. On the financing side, we have done the capital raising last year in terms of getting a $1.25 billion bond, which gave us the flexibility and although we didn't need a relaxation of the covenants, we felt it was prudent to basically obtain that. And certainly, it's shown that we didn't need it based on how events have transpired. So we've got a good mix of debt tenure, and importantly, our U.S. dollar revolver of over $1 billion is not drawn. On the optimization side of costs, our planning is taking place for $1,100 for 2014. Our all-in sustaining costs have dropped to around $1,015 from around $1,300 earlier the year. Overhead and exploration cost declined by 35% year-on-year. And we expect a similar reduction going into '14. And our capital expenditure bill has come down in line of what we promised to the market. In terms of projects, Kibali came onstream ahead of schedule. And on budget, Tropicana similarly commissioned ahead of time and on budget. And Graham and the team in Australia did a very good job. Navachab sale was completed under very challenging market conditions as you would appreciate. And the amount which we have agreed is $110 million, enterprise value plus royalty, and full credit to Charles and the corporate finance team and the legal team under Rhea, [ph] for having pulled that off. CC&V expansion is on track and on schedule, and the collective work of our 3 operating colleagues, and 7 of our corporate office support colleagues have helped us complete a large chunk of these improvements. As we say, it is not about the short-term only, we've had continued focus on the long-term. Our South African technology project continues to soldier ahead; when I visited TauTona a week and a half ago, it was only the 17th hole, didn't realize Mike had drilled the 18th hole in between, well done. And likewise, in terms of our Greenfield exploration project has been very focused, and we are targeting the dollars where we believe we are going to get the best bang for the buck. So with those concluding remarks, I'll pass you over to Stewart Bailey.

Stewart Bailey

Management

All right. And questions if you can just give the name and the institution you are with. If we could start with Allan Cooke over here, and then -- actually start with Derryn, I think you are a little closer.

Derryn Maade - HSBC, Research Division

Management

This is Derryn Maade from HSBC. Could you guys please expand upon the restructuring options at Obuasi that are mentioned in the presentation, just in terms of what options are being considered, as well as potential timing for those. And then could you also please just expand upon the board's decision to forgo the dividends?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

If I can pick up both in relation to Obuasi first, and then the decision by the board. I thought I covered the decision by the board, but I'll go over it again. In terms of Obuasi, the real challenge we have is it's a phenomenal ore body. In terms of grade, most of you have visited Obuasi and seen the ore body for yourself. The biggest issue is around how we actually get access to the ore body. The technical challenges are not huge. Our method of mining is jack hammers, but we want to modernize and mechanize it. We want to remove the constraint in mining, hence, we're currently putting the decline, for those of you who have been to Obuasi, we already have a decline running from 26 level to 41 level and -- which was built during Ashanti time. We will modernize that. We are then putting a decline from surface down to 26 level, working both ways to meet that 14 level. And Ron can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm learning fast. So in that regard, hopefully, we remove the bottleneck in terms of the entire mining infrastructure. We then modernized the method of mining, and we re-skilled the workforce. Effectively, what you are then seeing is a long-life mine, which can extract this ore productively at lower cost. And we're not talking even the deeps here, we are just talking ore above 50 level, out of 4 or 5 blocks. But our biggest issue in Obuasi is around all of the SG&A, the softer issues and the noise, and in terms of the costs and that's where the real focus is at the moment. And as you appreciate, it's a 100 year old mine. So decisions can't be taken by knee jerking. A consultation process is currently underway with all of the stakeholders. And we're pleased that we're getting very good feedback from the union, very good feedback from the government and from the community alike, wanting to address the long-term viability of the future of Obuasi. So in that regard, all we can say at the moment is, we're looking at all options, which are conceivable in terms of the asset. We note the comment made by the minister recently in the press, but all of the options remain on the table. We're not going to box ourself to a particular timeline or deadline in terms of options, but certainly, this key on our agenda at the moment. Because we do know that, that is an important unfinished business in AngloGold Ashanti's portfolio and that is receiving full focus in that regard. Just purely in terms of timeline going back in history, any year which ends in a 4 is a memorable year in Obuasi's history. The mine was privatized in 1994, it was sold to AngloGold in 2004, and we are in 2014. So let's leave it at that.

Stewart Bailey

Management

Dividend.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

With regard to dividend, and Derryn, it was a difficult call from the board's point of view. The debate did last quite a bit, because the prospects are looking very promising as you go into 2014. The gold price was volatile. It did pick up closer to the board. But in reality, you have to ask a question. Is it good financing strategy longer term to basically borrow money from the banks and pay a dividend. For the sake of actually paying a half yearly dividend, the board correctly and conservatively concluded, despite the debt reduction, which is happening in Australia, it is best to get to free cash flow positive territory in 2014, and hence, made a decision in terms of forgoing the dividend for -- the final dividend for 2013.

Stewart Bailey

Management

Allan? Allan J. Cooke - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Allan Cooke from JPMorgan. Venkat, just you made some comments on the portfolio and the 21 mines, and the changes that have happened, is that portfolio -- it's now for AngloGold Ashanti or will this be -- there be further changes in terms of disposables maybe purchase, or is this the portfolio that you are going to take forward as you restructure? And then just for Richard, I've been through all of the disclosures, but I can't see defined any all-in cost disclosure, do you tend to disclose all-in costs for AngloGold Ashanti from the March closure, in line with the World Gold Council guidelines or would you provide that separately for us, please?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

You want to pick your question first?

Richard N. Duffy

Management

Sure I can. We -- the all-in cost if my memory serves me, I mean if Mark is in the audience, he can correct me if I get it wrong, for the -- for Q4 was 1,233. So that includes in addition to the sustaining capital, it now includes your expansionary CapEx. And we can certainly provide that going forward. So 1,233 for Q4.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

The CFO was certainly on the ball. So with regard to going back to the question in terms of portfolio, I think you never say never, in terms of the portfolio mix. We constantly look at the stream of assets, certainly, Yatela and Navachab were easy choices in that regard. We will continue to look at the portfolio of assets with the view to basically streamlining it. But as I said in previous discussions, I don't think it's right to simply put an asset on the block until we have done the full homework, and we are fond of you but certainly, we will be looking at streamlining the portfolio going forward, negotiations underway. We may look at joint ventures for synergies, et cetera. A whole range of options are open in that regard. We are not fixated on having more than 20 mines to answer your question, Allan.

Stewart Bailey

Management

Adrian?

Adrian Hammond - BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

It's Adrian Hammond from BNP Cadiz. I have 2 questions. Firstly, one for Richard and the second one is more of a general question. Richard, just on Slide 16, you point out some of the cost improvements for the sustaining cash cost, what -- could you just give us what was related to weaker local currencies if you have it.

Richard N. Duffy

Management

Yes.

Adrian Hammond - BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

And I'll wait for the second question, thanks.

Richard N. Duffy

Management

Weaker local currencies did contribute marginally, but the reason we didn't break it out in the waterfall is it was pretty much offset by escalation inflation. So it was probably around $6 an ounce relating to local weak currencies, but offset by approximately also $6 an ounce on escalation.

Adrian Hammond - BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

And then, second question relates you your production guidance. You've got a lot of new growth coming through this year from Kibali and Tropicana, but you are guiding a little growth for FY '14 year-on-year, where are the major shortfalls?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

You want me to pick it up.

Richard N. Duffy

Management

Okay pick it up.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

If I can pick it up in that regard, really what we are looking at in terms of guidances, and we did say that at the start of the year, we said, just because we are getting more than 500,000 ounces coming out of Kibali and Tropicana, don't add it to 2013 production to get to the number. We will be removing marginal ounces, and we have done so in respect of Mali. Mike is looking at ounces in South Africa as well. And particularly, in Obuasi, we are looking at some of the tailings treatment material, looking at the cost implications again, and said, you know what, this doesn't make sense. What we need to address is the mining issue at Obuasi. And simply putting tailings through to get to a production target doesn't make long-term sense, to give you a flavor of some of those changes.

Richard N. Duffy

Management

And also just to remember, half -- we've assumed a half year's production, another half is asked as well. So...

Stewart Bailey

Management

All right. Steve? Sorry, Steve it's Andrew?

Andrew Byrne - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Management

Andrew Byrne from Barclays. I have 2 questions for me. First one revolves around grades. We've seen another pick up in the quarter, you're continuing the momentum we saw from the third quarter. A few skeptics out there may suggest that it is a case of high grading, which you, rather than do a couple of raises, you'd -- makes sense. Could you give us an idea of how that grade profile develops, as you see it now over the next 12 months, and then looking out perhaps over effect 36 months? It's the first question. Then the second one is actually towards Graham, if possible, in the past you talked about one of the potential game changers at Tropicana, and something you can really focus on is exploration, to try and firm up the production profile post, kind of, 3 years, and potentially that could have some input in terms of how you view your ownership on the asset. Could you give us an update of what's been happening there please?

Graham J. Ehm

Management

To your first question, I might just comment on grades and answer it this way. There's no deliberate strategy to high grade. If you line up your reserves in production grades, you'll see that some are above and some are below. And that really is determined more by the mining sequence rather than any deliberate high grading strategy. In terms of production for the last quarter, quarter-on-quarter, you'll note that there are improvements in regard to mining volumes, and also milling volumes. So that over and above grade has made a contribution to the increase. Specifically, with Tropicana and Kibali coming on board, they are higher grade. Higher grade than average, and clearly, their cash costs are much lower. They contributed about 110,000 ounces in quarter 4, and we will contribute more, our share, in quarter 1 and then through the year. So that's a significant difference. A one-off case for quarter 4 was Sunrise Dam and that was regard -- around the crown pillar. There's a very high grade ore right at the bottom of the pit. So that's a one-off, that's now being completed and you won't see that rolling through. In regard to Tropicana, you are quite right. We've always guided that the first 3 years would be around 470,000 ounces, 490,000 ounces and then it would fall off in year 4. 2 areas we focused on, 1 is underground exploration. And we found that the high-grade shoots in Havana pit, Tropicana pit do extend a dip. We have completed a prefeasibility study around that and it says 2 things. One in terms of the underground mine. We would need a higher gold price, equal to $1,400, $1,500 to make a decision on that today. But we would also -- what would also help is repetition of those shoots along strike. So that we get a higher ounces per vertical meter. So that second point is one we can deal with, with exploration. So that would be the focus in terms of exploration at the mine area. The other is the broad brand fills potential within a trucking distance from the mine. And we are still pursuing that. We found an area of Madras, which is about 200 kilo -- sorry 220 kilometers south of Tropicana, looks quite encouraging. But it's still pretty early days on that. So overall, there's quite a number of prospects with targets within that area. And we are still methodically working through them.

Andrew Byrne - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Management

Last one is, I'd just like to make a request, is there any chance to get up to Obuasi at some point? You mentioned people have been there, but I think it's about 5 years, so I think most people will love to just try and get there, if we got the chance.

Graham J. Ehm

Management

We will let you know when we decide on that one Andrew. Steve A. Shepherd - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Steve Shepherd, JPMorgan. Firstly, well done to the team on an outstanding set of quarterly results, it's pleasing to see that. So that's the nice bit of it, now your -- bulk of your reserves are in problematic jurisdictions. You mentioned Ghana so, I'm not going to go on about that, but this is going to be a big year in South Africa from a regulatory point of view, and so could you -- whoever feels like it, just share with us what your level of confidence is on your BEE credentials, #1, and #2, could you comment on the situation with AMCU, and how that may or may not affect you, and perhaps more in general of the business environment in South Africa, because one can see the exciting potential of your non-labor-intensive project, which I think you called a game changer Mike, and I certainly, as an old mining guy, look, I get quite excited about it. But has the union embraced this, or do you anticipate profits? So excited.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Management

I pick it up first and then pass the microphone on to Mike. Firstly, with regard to the mining charter question, which you are raising. Certainly, we're heavily involved through the chamber in terms of discussions and negotiations with the government. Recently, the DMR initiated an audit firm called Moloto Solutions to do a random audit of all of the mining companies. Our mining concession was selected in that regard. And they spent 2 days, one going to the actual mine site, and the other one in the corporate office going through rafts of information. And the feedback we've had has been very positive in that regard. So given in terms of BEE credentials across all of the pillars, we're in pretty good compliance. And they look at South Africa as a whole, not just a region. They look at the corporate office as well. So, in terms of compliance in order, and certainly, in terms of ownership credentials, given the historical deals done and the EE transaction which we did in terms of ESOP and the E-shares, also that has been taken into account. So overall, absolutely, no concern in that regard. And importantly, the dialogue has been progressing well. We've had open discussions with regard to the DMR, the minister, both directly and through the chamber. And just in terms of comments on jurisdictions. At the end of the day, God does put gold in difficult places. It's -- one would love to go and mine outside the Federal Reserve Bank and the Bank of England. But having said that, trust me, even that is going to be quite difficult. So gold is where it is found. So we need to have the courage to be able to mine there and build the model that actually works. On the wage negotiations fees, as you know, we went through extensive negotiations with the unions last year and the wage agreement was actually signed, a fair increase was provided, taking into account the cost of inflation and the cost of living, and even the economics of the industry. The important part is we have applied the decrease across all of our workforce, irrespective of the union membership. And the matter was taken to court and the initial judgment is on favor. I think there is a hearing scheduled, if I'm right, towards the middle of March, and we will have to wait for the outcome of that hearing. But, Mike can comment on that and the technology piece as well.

Mike P. O'hare

Management

Thanks, Venkat. I think the AMCU piece specifically, Joseph mentioned that they would abide by the law and play by the rules, they're certainly have in gold. And I see no reason for that to change. Everybody is pretty calm up until the 13th of March where we will get the final outcome. So I don't see that there is anything in particular that worries us, with the one exception of spill over from the platinum as we saw in 2012. Some kind of contingent effect. But, I mean, you get the union relations right at a mine level. So I think those relations are good, a lot of interaction between ourselves, AMCU, and remember, we still have the National Union of Mine Workers in the Vaal River area. As far as your second question is concerned, we've involved the unions right from the very beginning in this mechanization drive. And I think what's important to note and maybe it's a bit of a subtle key, the ounces that we plan to mine over the next 3 years are ounces that we wouldn't have mined. So the short pillar areas are creating jobs. The mining of the C-reef that I mentioned, which is over a million ounces potentially, will create jobs. So you really only get into a discussion around whether you are replacing jobs underground when you start to replace conventional mining, and that's a fair way out. Second piece to that conversation is from a South African gold mining point a view, we really want the country to be proud of us. They are in our community and obviously are employees. One of the ways to do that is to show the communities and indeed show the country that we are manufacturing these machines locally, and we are maintaining them locally and we are doing that in the community. So part of this process is another piece that we are not talking about a lot, is developing workshops, manufacturing this equipment, and maintaining it in the communities. So the community sees the benefit as well. Steve A. Shepherd - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: A follow-up if I may, Mike and this is for you I think. You still use the 11 shift fortnight system I suppose on your labor intensive mines, you had a projects in Sindisa a while back at the chamber. Isn't there some capital, and I noted that you complained about the blast frequencies at Moab, I mean isn't there any merit in revisiting the possibility of trying to get away from 275 blasting opportunities a year, and maybe into the early 300s by going for a six-day week with the shift rotation system, what do you think about that?

Mike P. O'hare

Management

So we got to the point where we had all of the work done by the toss team through the chamber of mines, through the Project called Sindisa, which intended to mine up to 345 days a year, that was the agreement. However, that got -- how can I put it, a little bit stillborn and going further with the changes in the union dynamics at the different mining areas. So the piece that we own at the moment, and this is across the industry, but specifically for us. This technology that we are talking about is dependent on working 360 days a year and working for 24 hours in a day. And that's one of the principles of this technology implementation. So that certainly is happening there. In our projects, I'm pointing below 120 level bolt. We are already in areas on 6 -- on working 6 days a week. And then certainly in our construction areas where we are behind, we'll be working 7 days a week. And that's being ongoing for quite a period of time. You can't change the South African mining system to mining more days unless you develop more, because eventually you just going to run out of phasing. So the keys must come in the development of more ground before you can actually put crews into mining 6 days a week and so on, although, as you very quickly run out of mining phase. Steve A. Shepherd - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Your fixed cost is what, 80% of the total cost year?

Mike P. O'hare

Management

LIBOR and energy account for about 70%. Steve A. Shepherd - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Yes. But your fixed cost base is high, so I suppose volume would be quite helpful when you get in the costs equation.

Mike P. O'hare

Management

Correct. Steve A. Shepherd - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: I suppose Venkat has not giving you enough money to do enough development. Is that it?

Mike P. O'hare

Management

No. That's definitely not at issue. In fact it’s about where the grade is. Not about, the safety with our idea, I mean, it's a working cost ORD.

Stewart Bailey

Management

All right. I think that about wraps it up. Thanks everyone for coming and we will see you outside for a drink.