Earnings Labs

Aura Minerals (AUGO)

Q4 2024 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 28, 2025

$83.81

-4.71%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call. This conference is being recorded, and a replay will be available at the company’s website at auraminerals.com/investidores/. The presentation will also be available for download. This call is also available in Portuguese. To access, you can press the globe icon on the lower right side of your Zoom screen and then choose to enter the Portuguese Room. After that, select Mute Original Audio. [Foreign Language] [Operator Instructions] Before proceeding, we would like to clarify that any statements that may be made during this conference call regarding the company’s business prospects, operational and financial projections, and goals are the beliefs and assumptions of Aura Executive Board and the current information available to the company. These statements may involve risks and uncertainties as they relate to future events and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors should be aware of events related to the macroeconomic scenario, the industry and other factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the respective forward-looking statements. Present at this conference, we have Rodrigo Barbosa, President and CEO; and Kleber Cardoso, the CFO. Now I’ll turn the conference over to Rodrigo Barbosa. You may begin your conference.

Rodrigo Barbosa

Analyst

Good morning, all. I'm glad to be here again with all of you. We are now presenting, the Q4 and the year end of the 2024, which we'll see, was extraordinary year in terms of results and also not only that, but also setting the stage for us to continue to grow in 2025 and then 2026 and so on. As usual, I will cover the main results and what advancements we made during the year, and then Kleber will step in in more details on the results. So if we go to the executive summary on the highlights of the year, there was a busy year that we accomplished significant milestones. But before I go to the milestones, let's go quickly on the results. We doubled the EBITDA from achieving now $267 million, with the gold price slightly below $2400. Today, gold price is already $500 per ounce compared to what we achieved the last year. So you can imagine that if Gold continues to perform at this level, we will have a significant impact on the EBITDA for the 2025, not considering also the startup of, Borborema. In terms of, our in sustaining cash cost, we finished the year of $1,373 per ounce. We will also -- we are closing and sharing the guidance for the year. We'll see the guidance for 2025 slightly above what we performed in '24, but mostly because for Apoena, we will go through two years of pushback and investment on the peak so that we can, after two years, resume to the normal levels and that will also bring our well in sustaining cash cost below our average. And as we could see, Almas was a full production. It's an ordinary year for Almas despite the challenges we had, when we changed…

Kleber Cardoso

Analyst

Thanks, Rodrigo. Good morning, everyone. We can go to next page. We start, as usual with a summary of the our main financial KPIs, both for the current quarter, the previous few quarters, and accumulated for the last 12 months, of each reporting periods. On this quarter, we achieved a hundred $72 million in revenues, significantly improvement compared to the previous quarter. That's mostly because we are able to keep the amount of shipments in gold equivalent ounces. And because of the average gold price in the fourth quarter was higher than on the third quarter. Was both were achievable for record high, both in the net revenues for the quarter and for the year that we're closing at $594 million, the revenues for 2024. When we move it to the adjusted EBITDA, it was also a part of records. For the second quarter in a row, we achieved our highest quarterly EBITDA ever required at $790 million and closed 2024 at $267 million. Moving to the bottom, KPIs on the net income, we're reporting a profit of $17 million on this fourth quarter, reverting losses that we had in the last previous four quarters, losses which were mostly associated with non-cash losses related to the gold hedges market-to-market. As the gold prices fortunately increased since the end of 2023. We had those no cash losses throughout the quarter, and in this fourth quarter of 2024, although the average gold price increased in the quarter, the gold price remains mostly stable between the beginning of the quarter and the end of the quarter. So I'm going to show more detail. We even had a noncash gain, associated to this. And then in terms of cash and net debt, we see a significant increase in our cash position by the end…

Operator

Operator

We are going to start the question-and-answer session for investors and analysts. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ricardo Monegaglia with Safra. You can open your microphone.

Ricardo Monegaglia

Analyst

Hello, everyone. Rodrigo, Kleber, Natasha. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three actually if I may. First one, is it too soon to anticipate what will come from the new reserves and resources report in the end of next month or the April? It's my first question. And if there's any news on any area that you're expecting a license that could add to your reserves. My second question, if possible, I want to get more color on the expansion of CapEx guidance or maybe a clarification. So how much of the figure is represented by the development of Nosde Phase 3? And maybe how much investments coming from Nosde Phase 3 as well. Could we expect, in 2026 since the completion is expected for the end of 2026. Right? And my last one on Minosa, you said that the cash cost guidance, which is higher than the levels of 2024, were driven mainly by lower grades, but also by reduced mind movement. So I wonder if rains come at similar levels to 2024. Where would, Minosa cash cost reach? At what level within the guidance would Minosa cash cost reach if rains are similar to 2024? Thank you.

Rodrigo Barbosa

Analyst

Very well. So thank you, Ricardo. Glad you're here. I will take the first and third question, then Kleber can take, the second one. So about the resource and reserves, as I mentioned, yes, it's too soon to anticipate. We made progress in all our mines except, in Minosa, where we are now planning to intensify more exploration, but yet we have not intensified. But, all of those information is going to be on the AIF report that should be released, by the March. In terms of, then increasing reserves in Borborema, that depends a lot on the ongoing conversation with the government and authorities, which we expect to be able to move forward and get the initial permits during this semester by -- until the mid of the year. And we important to mention that yet, we are not including our resource reserves, but at this moment, the reserves of Bluestone is not in any of our reports that we are analyzing, reassessing and as we finish these then we will include on the AIF.

Kleber Cardoso

Analyst

Okay. I can take the second question on the CapEx -- the expansion CapEx. We don't give detailed guidance on the breakdown on the expansion CapEx, but it can guide you based on information that is already in our MD&A. Out of that expansion CapEx, about, half of that should be to complete the Borborema project. And then the remaining is going to be both Nosde and also to invest in some continual expansions or Carajás. But most excluding Borborema, most of that should be to open the, the Nosde deposits.

Rodrigo Barbosa

Analyst

And the third one about the Minosa, where you would expect the all-in sustaining cash cost, it would be slightly if we have the same rainfall as 2024, will be slightly above what we performed in '24 due to slightly decrease on the grades. But that's, where we should be if we have a same rainfall as 2024.

Ricardo Monegaglia

Analyst

Excellent. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Edgard Pinto de Souza with Itaú BBA. You can open your microphone.

Edgard Pinto de Souza

Analyst

Hello, everyone. Hello, Rodrigo, Kleber, Natasha. Thank you for the questions. It was a great year for Aura. And we have been receiving a lot of more questions on the name. We think that visibility is increasing for the company. So my first question maybe for you, Rodrigo. We saw this solid performance over the last few months for Aura and also for gold prices. But the main pushback for investors remains the liquidity. So, I wanted to hear from you. What is in your hands to increase liquidity? Anything on the listing side, and how do you balance that with the buyback program? That would be great. And my second question on EPP, we know that EPP is the main drag of your operations in 2025, and it will also be in 2026 due to the open of the pits there in in Nosde. I want to understand how should we think about EPP after you reach the high grade? So how should we think about cost, production, etc., in in EPP in 2025 and going forward. And the last question here, we see a lot of small triggers for the company in the short term, the release of the reshaping of the Matupa projects, the licensing process of Bluestone, and also the approval of the roads at Borborema. If you could give any color on any update you have on those three fronts, it would be great. Thank you very much.

Rodrigo Barbosa

Analyst

Okay. Thank you, Edgard. Nice to have also you here and glad to hear that investors are paying more and more attention, not of which they should because we are progressing, very fast with our long-term project. So, the first question you made is about liquidity. Yes. I think this is, our major point that we are paying attention. We also receive same feedback. While the story is good, Very few companies can do what we can, which is growing, reduce cash cost and pay dividends, but yet the liquidity avoids major shareholders to come in and out at the speed that they would like. So this is a well-known issue for us. We are taking initiatives to address share buyback. I think it's a small portion and, it's there's no other there's no better investment that we can do yet than buying back our shares. But this is buying back the shares is not what is going to either jeopardize the liquidity or also or save. I think we need to think broadly, and how to address the liquidity. And, as you know, we continue to look M&As. We have significant projects that you build on Matupa, perhaps Cerro Blanco. So we would continue to monitor the market to see, if there is any chance to do -- to put more shares in the market as long as it's accretive to all the shareholders. I think that would address significantly the liquidity and then also can help with narrowing the gap. But to do that, we need to make sure that we will be at the right price and that the investments of the capital use that we're going to do, it's on average of our price per NAV. So we don't have a dilution to our shareholders in the terms of not generating end value. But we are considering also, which is no news for any, where should we be, better located? Where should we focus? Is Toronto, Brazil? Is perhaps New York a place that we should be in the United States or not? So all those conversations are ongoing, because we want to address this. Right? But we're the challenge we have is that we have excess of cash as of now, so we don't need to issue new shares. But if we have and we have a good user proceeds, that is something that would really address, this this, this problem. So that was the first question. The second one was?

Edgard Pinto de Souza

Analyst

On EPP.

Rodrigo Barbosa

Analyst

How On EPP. Yeah. EPP, we will be releasing on the AIF the new mine plan, the new production level that we can achieve after the pushback. But we already performed in average grades in the past. So if you look at how we performed in '21, '20 '23, It can give you some guidance in what kind of are we in sustaining cash we can perform at the company, but we'll be running all of those numbers on the long term and disclosing to the market as we finish these projections. And the last one?

Edgard Pinto de Souza

Analyst

If you had any update on the moving of the road in Borborema, Matupa, when will you expect to release the reshaping of the Matupa projects? And any news on Cerro Blanco?

Rodrigo Barbosa

Analyst

Matupa, we are -- I think we have a very and you touched a very interesting point. Matupa is a project that we are finalizing now, in terms of understanding, the influence of Pezão, Pé Quente, Serra as we still need to advance more that, the state of Matupa will also change the procedures of the environmental license, more digitalized, which is good. But during this process has been some of the permits has been delayed and Serra has been delayed. We are but we are continuing to do exploration but at a slower speed because we have to access in different areas. But we expect to be more mature in Matupa by mid of this year, between second and third quarter. And that is would be good because we are also assessing and progressing, understanding how to unlock Cerro Blanco. We are we projected that it might take several years, but yet we need to really understand how to address the issues. Cerro Blanco has is already fully permit for on the ground. The permit for open pit is being challenged by government authorities. There is important discussions that needs also to happen with the communities, but we are assessing this. I've already traveled a few times to the country. We are understanding more and more about the project and then we will have a good sense about when to start construction and the strategy of that also by mid of this year. Borborema I think would be the same. I think I would say that, until mid of the year, we will have a very good view on the strategy to move forward the company in the upcoming years. And I would also invite investors to really pay attention during the semester because we have a very important milestones that we are achieving. It's initial ramp up of Borborema, then we can also have this situation of getting the permits to relocate the roads. There is important assessment that we are doing in Cerro Blanco. So the big picture and the big strategy that we project to Aura has important milestones happening in the upcoming month. Plus the AIF with progress in all the assets, including also Serra da Estrela.

Edgard Pinto de Souza

Analyst

Thank you, Rodrigo.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Guilherme Nippes with XP. You can open your microphone.

Guilherme Nippes

Analyst · XP. You can open your microphone.

Good morning, Rodrigo, Kleber, and Natasha. Can you hear me?

Rodrigo Barbosa

Analyst · XP. You can open your microphone.

Yes. Loud and clear.

Guilherme Nippes

Analyst · XP. You can open your microphone.

Yeah. Thank you. So thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations on another great quarter. So I have two questions here. My first one, is for Almas. So regarding the guidance, we were expecting lower cash cost considering that the issues that you had, with the contractor during the first half of 2024. And the data for Q4 was close to $700 which compares to the $1,000 in the lower range of your cost guidance for 2025. So, I would like to hear, if there is anything specific regarding this guidance for Almas for /2025? So this is my first question. And just a follow-up on capital allocation. So with the projects that you have now on your pipeline, it seems like you are going to prioritize Matupa now rather than Bluestone. Is that correct? Or if, we can we can see any other news on Bluestone by the end of the year. So you would go on this project throughout the next years. So these are my two questions. Thank you.

Rodrigo Barbosa

Analyst · XP. You can open your microphone.

Thank you, Guilherme. I will let, Kleber to answer the first question of Almas, and then I will jump back and answer the Bluestone.

Kleber Cardoso

Analyst · XP. You can open your microphone.

Okay. Sure. Yeah. When we look at the all-in sustaining cash cost of Almas, you're going to see it's stable when you compare year to year. So if you take the range, it's very similar to what Almas produced in 2024. So there is no increase. Of course, if you compare it the fourth quarter, there is an increase, but fourth quarter was exceptionally high. We always say that we need to be careful analyzing just one quarter results. So when you take the full year, that we had some problems in the beginning of the year as well, but then we had exception exceptional performance in the second half. In the fourth quarter, specifically, due to minor sequencing, we are able to reduce significantly the strip ratio. So I would I will I would say it's stable when you look year-after-year. Also, there is no increase in when you see in terms of inflation. It's being basically stable, the cash costs.

Rodrigo Barbosa

Analyst · XP. You can open your microphone.

So for Cerro Blanco, Bluestone has two projects. One, Geothermal project that can produce up to 50 megawatts and Cerro Blanco, which is the gold mine. It's not that we are preferring in terms of capital location in Matupa, it's just that we need time to assess when we would be able to build Cerro Blanco. Cerro Blanco is a much bigger project and higher grades. So of course we are updating feasibility studies, we're updating, the CapEx, but it's intuitive to think that Cerro Blanco has a significant higher return compared to Matupa. So if both are fully available to start construction, we probably would prefer Cerro Blanco, but we need to assess, we need to do a lot of social work and to understand when, we that would be clear to start construction. So if we see that, say, Cerro Blanco might take a few years to start construction, then we would start the construction of Matupa first and then sequence Cerro Blanco right after. And, again, in between and along the next years, it's still part of our plan to continue to pursue M&As.

Guilherme Nippes

Analyst · XP. You can open your microphone.

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Marcelo Arazi with BTG. You can open your microphone.

Marcelo Arazi

Analyst · BTG. You can open your microphone.

Hey, guys. I have two questions on my side as well. I was wondering if you could share your thoughts on the strong good performance we are seeing. Do you believe these price levels are sustainable in the in the long term? And my second question, regarding capital allocation as well and given out a slow leverage and solid cash position, should we expect any additional dividend distribution or eventually any form of project or share buyback acceleration. Thank you.

Rodrigo Barbosa

Analyst · BTG. You can open your microphone.

Okay. On the on the dividend, I think we are paying above what we expected. What is 20% -- what the guidance is 20% of EBITDA recurring CapEx. We've been paying more than this. And we should continue to pay this according at least to the guidance. Every time that we feel we have excess of cash, we will pay more. So if we see the company performing above expectations and that forecasting that we will have excess of cash, then we might consider some extraordinary dividends as well or even above what we've been paying as a normal level. In terms of gold prices, I think it's been interesting to see what is happening. And more and more, I think gold has been discussed in different investors, not anymore only investors that are looking for hard assets, but a lot of diversified investors are now including gold or gold companies in their portfolio. There is a big -- I think there's a big movement that is happening in the world, which is central banks is being a longer while that is been buying a lot of gold. China, of course is the largest producer of gold, the largest importer of gold. They do not disclose exactly what they are buying and how much they are putting in their reserves. We see also, movement very interesting and that I think there's no yet a conclusion what why. Right? There's some clues why this has happened, but I would invite all investors. This is a major physical gold movement around the world, unprecedented. Right? So a lot of gold that is coming from going out of the vaults in London, going to United States, going to China, And that might be related to eventual tariff that Trump might put on import…

Marcelo Arazi

Analyst · BTG. You can open your microphone.

Very clear. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ricardo Monegaglia with Safra.

Ricardo Monegaglia

Analyst · Safra.

Hello, guys. It's me again. It's, just a follow-up. So, Rodrigo, I wonder if you maybe could give us your perception of Aura's price to an AV and how that compares with comparable peers. Because I imagine that even with the strong, sharp performance, Aura's valuation continues discounted. So it would be great to have a sense of that gap to comparable peers. Thank you.

Rodrigo Barbosa

Analyst · Safra.

Thank you, Ricardo. Now yes. It's one had this frustrating for us to see that we are still discounted compared to our peers and that we should change the peers in the future. But, if the Bloomberg and some reports of analysts says that we are close to 0.5x NAV, not including in our NAV, the NAV for Cerro Blanco, which is a major. I'm talking about a multi-million ounces project with a high grade, so that will translate in a high ounce of NAV. So we are around now 0.5x as of the information that we have received from the market. NAV not including in the NAV the Cerro Blanco project, which should be included anytime during this year. I think the main reason that we are now at this situation as it was well asked before is our daily trading volume. Major investors cannot they like the story. We meet with them. They say, well put this daily trading volume double or triple this and then come back. We like the story, we'd like to invest in the company, but if we don't have a speed in or out, we can't invest. Which makes a super good opportunity for those investors that can get in and out our shares because as we continue to grow, as we believe that we can build Borborema now put online all time on budget, that we'll build Matupa, that we'll build Cerro Blanco. We will increase daily trading environment. We will narrow a lot of the gap. On average, the companies that can be similar to us, I would say that is now at 0.6, 0.65 price per NAV. But those, if we go beyond 600,000 ounces, 700,000 ounces, then we get close to 0.8 to 0.9 NAV and above $1 million one time or even more, one more time NAV. So that's kind of the range of the market. We will fight furiously to narrow this gap, but not only this, to change the peers. And we have projects to change the peers. With Matupa and then Apoena recovering after disinvestment phase and the improvements we are doing now in Almas, we will reach 450,000 ounce of gold equivalent production per year, not including Cerro Blanco. Cerro Blanco as an underground can produce close to 150,000 ounces, as an open pit, close to 250,000 ounces, 300,000 ounces. So we have projects that if delivered and built, it's already putting Aura at 600,000 ounces, 700,000 ounces and we continue to do, monitor the market for M&A. So I believe that, the following years, we will not only narrow the gap compared to our peers, but we will change the peers and access significant higher price per NAV compared to what we are today.

Ricardo Monegaglia

Analyst · Safra.

Great. Thank you, Rodrigo.

Operator

Operator

The Q&A section is over. We would like to hand the floor back to mister Rodrigo Barbosa for the company's final remarks.

Rodrigo Barbosa

Analyst

Well, thank you all for participating. It was extraordinary year, for us. Just a quick reminder, record high production, record high, revenues, record high EBITDA, record high, cash generation in the year that we made a good progress in Almas stabilized and proved that Almas is a super interesting project. We built Borborema. We made an acquisition of Cerro Blanco. We advanced in exploration. We paid all of these -- paying world highest dividend yield in the world for the gold industry. All of these with benchmark, with safety, all of this setting out a benchmark how to build new mines. Almas was an example in ramp up as well. Borborema very much also in line on time, very short term to build it to start ramp up. So, Aura continued to perform well, as I mentioned to you and then we were discussing here. Still discounted compared to our peers, projects that will even take us to change their peers. Of course, we have a lot of work to do. We have to address daily trading volume. We have to address the projects and deliver them on time and budget. We have to continue exploration, expand our resource and reserves, but there are many things that's happening very soon that can free us to start narrowing this gap of our price per NAV. And gold prices continue to be important. I would invite investors to do a quick mathematics. Last year, dollars $267 million of EBITDA. Now with 270,000 gold equivalent production, now gold prices are already $500 above what we performed last year. So that would add that at only for this with that $130 million of EBITDA, not included what's coming from Borborema and then later for other projects. So we are very much, doing record high results, and we should continue to break record high results along the next years. So I thank you all. We will work hard to continue to deliver the project on time, to continue to deliver stable operations, and also to address the daily trading volume, which for those that can enter in and out again very fast, it's a very good window and opportunity because once we address those issues, the gap of NAV will be narrow. So thank you all and see you on the next part.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Aura's conference is now closed. We thank you for your participation and wish you a nice day. [Operator Closing Remarks].