Earnings Labs

Auna S.A. (AUNA)

Q2 2025 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 20, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Auna's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Ellie, and I will be your operator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] Now I would like to turn the call over to Ana Maria Mora, Head of Investor Relations. Ma'am, please go ahead.

Ana Maria Mora

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Auna's conference call to review our second quarter results. Please note that there is a webcast presentation to accompany the discussion during this call. If you need a copy of the presentation, please go to our Investor Relations website or contact Auna's Investor Relations team. Please note that when we discuss variances, we will be doing so on a year-over-year basis and in FX neutral or local currency terms with regards to Mexico and Colombia, unless we note otherwise. Let's move to Slide 2. In addition to reporting on audited financial results in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, we will discuss certain non-IFRS financial measures and operating metrics, including foreign exchange neutral calculations. Investors should carefully read the definitions of these measures and metrics included in our earnings press release of yesterday to ensure that they understand them. Non-IFRS financial measures and operating metrics should not be considered in isolation as a substitute for or superior to IFRS financial measures and are provided as supplemental information only. Before we begin our remarks, please also note that certain statements made during the course of today's discussion may constitute forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and which are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ, including factors that may be beyond the company's control. This includes, but are not limited to, our expected adjusted EBITDA growth, the expected impact on revenues and profitability of certain initiatives we are pursuing in Mexico and long-term financial position and flexibility as a result of certain initiatives we are pursuing related to payers in Colombia and our target leverage level. For a description of these risks, please refer to our Form 20-F filing…

Gisele Remy Ferrero

Analyst

Thanks, Suso. My review begins on Slide 11. Revenue grew across our business with the exception of Colombia, where we intentionally tempered growth, maintaining revenue flat year-over-year, as we remain focused on risk mitigation and improving our cash conversion cycle there. Although Peru's revenue growth slowed in the quarter, it continued to be a strong top line contributor. Its 8% growth was mainly due to total planned member growth as well as surgery volume growth and price service mix. The top line of Mexico's health care business improved for the second consecutive quarter with revenue growing again year-over-year, mainly due to a better pricing mix. Let's turn to Slide 12, please. Adjusted EBITDA was 5% higher in FX-neutral terms in the quarter and down 3% on an as-reported basis with the margin practically unchanged at just over 22%. The depreciation of the Mexican and Columbian pesos relative to the sol, our reporting currency are noteworthy. With the Peruvian sol versus the Mexican peso declining 16% and the Peruvian sol versus the Colombian peso declining 9% year-over-year. Peru's EBITDA grew 8%. Overall, Peru's margin remained unchanged at a very solid 21%. Mexico's EBITDA grew 2% in local currency, and was impacted by devaluation on an as-reported basis. EBITDA growth in Mexico is mainly due to revenue growth and cost efficiency measures implemented towards the end of last year, resulting cost savings were partially offset by higher expenses associated with initiatives to enhance physician productivity. Mexico's adjusted EBITDA margin remained at a healthy 32%. Colombia's margin improved considerably, up 4.5 percentage points versus the first quarter, with a more profitable mix of payers, improved payment flows from [indiscernible] and lower impairments on accounts receivables. Let's now move to Slide 13. Adjusted net income increased 6x year-over-year, positively impacted by FX and EBITDA…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Leandro Bastos of Citi.

Leandro Bastos

Analyst

This is [indiscernible]. Two questions on our side actually. First one for Mexico. If you could just update where we are considering the headwind you had by the beginning of the year with physicians and suppliers? You mentioned that you made adjustments that some of the issues were addressed. So if you could just provide a broader update on how the situation is today. And also, how should we think about volume growth in the region, right? I mean top line already improved in the second quarter, but volumes remain kind of still weak. So if you could provide some outlook. So how could we think about that going forward? I think it will be helpful to hear that. That will be the first question. Second, about oncology MLR, which reached, I think, record lows during the quarter. Just to understand if you see room to go further down from here or if the strategy would be to eventually try to reinvest more on prices at current levels. So those are my questions. Jesús Antonio Zamora Leon: Great. Thank you very much, Leandro. I appreciate the different questions. I'm going to make sure I answer them all or else Gisele you can complement it. I appreciate it. On Mexico -- so -- in Mexico margins remained in the 30s, and we were -- we think that we'll repeat those margins in the future. This is a product of a slightly higher growth as volume from our physician groups stabilized. And it's also important to note that the second quarter is normally better than the first quarter. But I think that we remain very optimistic that our sufficient relationships have not only stabilized, but seem to promise alignment with our doctors. We think that the implementation has [ and ] start…

Gisele Remy Ferrero

Analyst

No, Suso, nothing on my end. I think that's very clear. Jesús Antonio Zamora Leon: There was a general question that I missed in the middle about growth. I couldn't hear it. I had a little bit mumbling. I don't know if I missed anything, Gisele.

Gisele Remy Ferrero

Analyst

I mean on the Mexico topic, I think it was relative to volumes. And I think what Suso mentioned in the first part of the answer as far as the stabilization of volumes after the supplier -- doctor supplier relationship impacts we measured -- we mentioned in the last quarter. What we're seeing is positive signs, as Suso mentioned. But I would also add, as he mentioned that this is a process which takes some time in stabilizing the new model and basically stabilizing the doctor rotation that we might have as a product of the new model.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Artur Alves of Morgan Stanley.

Artur do Amaral Alves

Analyst

Just a quick question on Colombia. We were wondering if you're making any new agreement in Colombia particularly additional risk-sharing contracts and relation -- and also the relationship with the new player? And how is that going? And if you have any new developments there? Jesús Antonio Zamora Leon: Great. So in general, and starting with the latter part of the question, we are making a great progress in terms of collections. And that is being represented in less provisioning, and you'll see that, I think, in the future. We're excited about what the team has achieved in Colombia. And there's been a reversal of, I think, higher provisions that we had in the past. Our collections in [ cash in Colombia ] has definitely improved, especially with the interim payers, especially with [ Nueva EPS ]. And more importantly, the dialogue we have in [ Nueva EPS ] is very constructive. They are very respectful. And they've been -- they've been delivering on an agreement that we signed many months ago -- on monthly payments with respect to the [ Pasa Consult ]. So I think the cash cycle in Colombia much improved. I think we will continue to improve. In terms of -- we have made also good progress in terms of revenue tied to intervene private payers. We've decreased our concentration from [ 26% ] something like 90%. And the same view our risk chain models have increased from like 7% of total revenues in Colombia to a little over 10%. And we continue to see that as a very important avenue of growth in Colombia. Yes, I don't know, Gisele, if there's anything else you want to complement?

Gisele Remy Ferrero

Analyst

No, Suso. I think that's complete.

Operator

Operator

There are no more questions from the phone lines. So I will now turn the call over to Ana Maria Mora from Auna, who will proceed with the questions from the webcast platform.

Ana Maria Mora

Analyst

Thank you, operator. The first question comes from [ Alex Zefferson ] from [ Mangrove. ] What gives you confidence that utilization in Mexico will increase given market softness? Jesús Antonio Zamora Leon: So we believe that our model in Mexico is gaining traction. And we can also see how the volumes, for example, in Opción Oncología, recently acquired Doctor Group, the leading oncology group in Monterrey, produces higher volumes in our networks. So high complexity, again, capitated models with which we take risk sharing like we discussed in Colombia, you'll see growth of that in Mexico in the future. That will sustain what we believe will be volume -- capacity utilizations in our hospitals in Monterrey. I think maybe just to -- I think the market softness is here to stay, but our model -- no is one that is promising. And given that health care is many, many times, does not correlate so closely with the economic growth, I think we'll see some recovery of that. I think the shock in Northern Mexico or the tariff uncertainty and its relation to formal employment, of course, former employment with the highest penetration of insurance has then produced a delay in medical treatment, surgeries and things of that nature. But it has not eliminated that demand, that will come back.

Ana Maria Mora

Analyst

Thank you, Suso. The next question comes from [indiscernible] Majunder from HSBC. What is your market share in Monterrey? Jesús Antonio Zamora Leon: Okay Gisele, maybe you can help me with this one. Maybe I would just direct the answer. In -- when one counts bands, and I'm served by the private sector in Monterrey, we represent over 30% of the number of beds in the private sector in Monterrey. When we look at oncology services, which is for us -- or high complexity services, our market share is lower, I would say. And these are informal numbers, please don't hold anything against me, I just want to indicate the trend. And we want to measure more high complexity market shares, and we're below, I would say, 10% in Monterrey, and we are very focused on increasing that in the next 5 years to more than double digit to more than 2x what we currently have. So this is a clear and key strategy in Monterrey and that we will measure and may be reporting in the future for investors to see. That is what we focus on Monterrey. More than the beds, what is the market share we have in chemotherapy, in mediation therapies, in oncological surgeries, in obstetric procedures and orthopedic procedures. So we'll be focused very much on that in the future, and you'll see how we move those figures as well.

Ana Maria Mora

Analyst

Thank you, Suso. The next question comes from Gerard Forbes from [ Sura ]. Looking at your historical results, your effective tax rate has shown significant volatility with a tough benefit in 2Q '24 and a more normalized expense of around 36% in 2Q '25. Could you provide some more color on what drove this normalization and what should investors expect as a sustainable effective tax rate going forward in the short and medium term? Jesús Antonio Zamora Leon: Gisele, do you want to take?

Gisele Remy Ferrero

Analyst

Yes. Great, Suso. Thank you so much for the question. What we've seen in the past and any volatility in the effective tax rate on the P&L has been more related to the stabilization of profit before tax and net profit as we've seen. Once we've started to stabilize profit before tax and net profit, and recognized deferred tax benefits from the past, given tax credits that we've built from basically 2022 when we had the impacts of the acquisition in 2023 when we had the impacts of the refinancing, which basically resulted in tax credits, which then translated into the P&L as deferred tax benefits. And that's why this year, in 2025, what we're seeing is a much more stabilized and normalized effective tax rate in the P&L, which should be around the levels that we're seeing this quarter of around 35% to 38%.

Ana Maria Mora

Analyst

Thank you, Gisele. The next question comes from Alex [ Stefensen ] from [ Mann. ] What is -- sorry, what's your view on the negative free cash flow after interest costs and liquidity?

Gisele Remy Ferrero

Analyst

Thank you, Alex, for the question. So what we've seen year-to-date, as we mentioned previously, basically, that organic free cash flow has been impacted both by collections in the first quarter, specifically in Colombia, which we've stabilized into the second quarter, as Suso mentioned. And also the PEN 19 million in payments to the Opción Oncología doctors, which is not a recurring payment. Historically, what we've seen is that cash flow improves in the second half of the year. And that is why we do see in what's to come of the year organic free cash flow more than recovering interest costs.

Ana Maria Mora

Analyst

Thank you, Gisele. At this time, I'm showing no further questions. So I'd like to turn the call back over to Suso for his closing remarks. Jesús Antonio Zamora Leon: Well, thank you very much, everybody. We remain excited about the future of Auna in the 3 geographies we have. We're growing as we expect with, as I said before, some minor headwinds that we resolved in Colombia, I believe, and then we're resolving in Mexico. Thank you again for your interest in Auna and we'll continue to report as we make progress in the AunaWay model and its implementation in the 3 countries. Thank you again.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.