Peter Greenleaf
Analyst · Leerink Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Well, I think there's a couple of things you got to factor in, right? We've never said nor will we say that new patient starts aren't important to look at. But in the first couple of years of the launch is always a question of how long will patients stay on drug over time, what will the persistency look like? And when patients do eventually come off a drug, do they come back to drug? And we're now starting to understand those dynamics better. So, when you look at overall patient growth and when you look at that relative to new patients coming in, I think for us, it's somewhat of -- it's a forecasting dynamic, right? Like it's the persistency that we've seen and as reported in this quarter, we've seen improvements in 12-month persistency, now above 55% or 56%. And interestingly, when you get to 18 and then 24 months, we've seen at least up to this point, sort of a flattening out of the curve. And I guess I would point to a couple of things. new EULAR and KDIGO guidelines emphasize very clearly that patients should be on medications. And this is irregardless of what medication for three to five years. That hasn't been historically how physicians have treated this disease. So, although guidelines have been pushing it, it's been treating episodic sort of flares of proteinuria. And I think those guidelines are helpful. Second, in the last 12 to 18 months, we've launched different elements of data that have crossed a couple of different key areas. One, three-year data looking at both safety and efficacy of the product. So, we were first to have data out that far, in particular, looking at EGFR that's an important safety component of tracking impact to the kidney. And then 18-month biopsy data. So, remember, in first year, obviously, we only had the one-year AURORA study. So. I think all that's impacting, and I think you got to look at persistency alongside of new patient starts, and we have to be hitting on both.