Earnings Labs

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, Jun 28, 2016

$191.75

-2.04%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the AeroVironment Inc. Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2016 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes. With us today from the company is the President and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Wahid Nawabi; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Raymond Cook; and Vice President of Investor Relations, Mr. Steven Gitlin. And now at this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Gitlin. Please go ahead, sir.

Steven Gitlin

Analyst

Thank you very much Latoya and welcome to our fourth quarter and full fiscal 2016 earnings call. Please note that on this call, certain information presented contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include without limitation, any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain words such as believe, anticipate, expect, estimate, intend, project, plan, or words or phrases with similar meaning. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions that involve risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, economic, competitive, governmental and technological factors outside of our control, that may cause our business, strategy or actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, reliance on sales to the U.S. government; availability of U.S. government funding for defense procurement and R&D programs; changes in the timing and/or amount of government spending; difficulty or inability to obtain required export authorization to sell our products to international customers, potential need for changes in our long-term strategy in response to future developments; the extensive regulatory requirements governing our contract with U.S. Government and international customers, the consequences to our financial position business and reputation that could result from failing to comply with such regulatory requirements, unexpected technical and marketing difficulties inherent in major research and product development efforts; changes in the supply and/or demand and/or prices for our products and services; the activities of our competitors and increased competition; failure of the markets in which we operate to grow; failure to remain a market innovator and create new market opportunities; changes in significant operating expenses, including components and raw materials; failure to develop new products; product liability, infringement and other claims; changes in the regulatory environment; and general economic and business conditions in the United States and elsewhere in the world. For a further list and description of such risks and uncertainties, see the reports we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The content of this conference call contains time sensitive information that is accurate only as of today June 28, 2016. The company undertakes no obligation to make any revision to the statements contained in our remarks or to update them to reflect events or circumstances occurring after this conference call. We will now begin with remarks from Wahid Nawabi. Wahid?

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

Good afternoon and welcome to our fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2016 earnings call. I’ll begin by expressing my appreciation to the entire AeroVironment team of passionate innovators, our Board of Directors, our customers, and our stockholders for your support in my new role of CEO. Since joining the company in 2011, I have worked closely with many of our talented and hard-working team members and developed a strong understanding of our operations. More recently, I have developed relationships with many other stakeholders including customers, stockholders, and analysts. Together as a team we’ve positioned AeroVironment as a company that develops innovative technology solutions to help customers accomplish their goals, is committed to making prudent strategic investments that enhance stockholder value, and above all is continually working to maintain and enhance its leadership position in large and growing markets. We’re continuing our ongoing efforts to articulate our value proposition to our stakeholders with clarity. Recently, we set out to fine tune our corporate brand and positioning by speaking with employees, customers, stockholders, and analysts to explore their perceptions of what we do, how we do it, and why it’s important to each of our stakeholder groups. The conclusion from that process is encapsulated in the following statement, which powerfully conveys who AeroVironment is today. AeroVironment is a courageous technology company that provides customers with more actionable intelligence so they can proceed with certainty. The key message here is, proceed with certainty. I believe this describes our core value proposition, which is how we help customers succeed. This is our goal across all our operations. In defense, frontline troops use Raven, Puma AE, and WASP AE small UAS to gain critical intelligence that enables them to make better decisions and move forward safely. Our Switchblade systems give them the ability to…

Raymond Cook

Analyst

Thank you, Wahid, and good afternoon, everyone. AeroVironment’s fiscal 2016 fourth quarter results are as follows: Revenue for the fourth quarter was $84.8 million, a decrease of 2% from fourth quarter fiscal 2015 revenue of $86.5 million. The decrease in revenue was due to a decrease in product deliveries of $3 million, partially offset by an increase in contract services revenue of $1.3 million. Looking at revenue by segment, UAS revenue was $75.9 million, a decrease of $2.8 million or 4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2015. The decrease is primarily due to a decrease in product deliveries of $4.3 million, a decrease in customer funded R&D work of $1.2 million, which was partially offset by an increase in service revenue of $2.7 million. EES revenue increased $1.1 million or 14% to $8.9 million in the fourth quarter versus the same period in 2015. This increase was primarily due to an increase in product deliveries of $1.4 million that was partially offset by a decrease of $0.3 million of service revenue. Turning to gross margins, gross margin for the fourth quarter was $37.9 million or 45%, a decrease of $7.4 million as compared to $45.4 million or 52% in the fourth quarter of 2015. The decrease in gross margin was primarily due to a decrease in product margins of $8.1 million, partly offset by an increase in service revenue margins of $0.7 million. By segment, UAS gross margin for the fourth quarter was $35 million, a decrease of $7.4 million as compared to $42.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2015. As a percentage of revenue, gross margin for UAS decreased from 54% to 46%, primarily due to product mix. EES gross margin for the fourth quarter was $2.97 million, a decrease of $0.1 million, as compared to $3.04…

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

Thanks, Raymond. Fiscal 2016 positioned us well for fiscal 2017 with strong customer engagement and important progress in our core business and growth portfolio. As we look ahead across fiscal 2017, some important milestones to look for include, one, continuing the expansion of our domestic small UAS business through sustainment and upgrade, potential U.S. Army procurement programs and promising U.S. Navy adoption. Two, expanding or growing international install base for small UAS with existing and new customers. Three, progressing towards the U.S. DoD’s frequency relocation program for small UAS. Four, continuing successful delivery of Switchblade Tactical Missile Systems to our defense customers who see great value in this unique capability. Five, deploying Blackwing systems to the U.S. Navy submarine suite. Six, continuing progress in our Switchblade variance including ongoing production of some variance and the progress towards the production of others. Seven, launching our commercial UAS business for precision agriculture and other verticals including announcing key customer relationships and projects. Eight, further customer engagement in atmospheric satellite systems. Nine, accelerating progress in our global TurboCord EV charging strategy. And ten, successful execution on our continuous improvement initiatives. With our plan in place, we expect effective execution across our portfolio of opportunities to produce fiscal 2017 revenue of between $260 million and $280 million. We are moderating our incremental internal R&D investments this year based on our progress last year and our expectations for market adoption timing this year. For fiscal 2017, we are targeting an internally funded R&D rate of 12% of revenue. As a reminder, we are generating a growing amount of customer R&D funding resulting in total that we fund ourselves. As a result of lower internally funded R&D, we expect to produce operating profit this year that will deliver earnings per share of between $0.20 and $0.35.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Troy Jensen of Piper. Your line is open.

Troy Jensen

Analyst

Gentlemen, congrats on the nice profitability.

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

Thank you.

Troy Jensen

Analyst

So, Wahid, so you – maybe Raymond can help on this too, but just to go over your full year guidance again, so you said $260 million to $280 million, it’s about 65%, about two-third second half and one-third in the first half?

Raymond Cook

Analyst

Correct.

Troy Jensen

Analyst

And then what was the comment about 40% of it, you expect it could be 40% of the first half number expected to be in the July quarter, is that correct?

Raymond Cook

Analyst

Yeah, so what we did is we gave some color and we said about one-third, two-thirds between first half and second half and then for the first half, we expected it to be about 40%/60% split.

Troy Jensen

Analyst

Between Q1 and Q2?

Raymond Cook

Analyst

Between Q1 and Q2.

Troy Jensen

Analyst

Yeah, understood. So if I run the math of the midpoint that equates to about $36 million in sales for the July quarter? Am I doing that correctly, Ray?

Raymond Cook

Analyst

I think if you are doing the math at the mid-point that’s about correct.

Troy Jensen

Analyst

Okay, I guess just your comment on more pronounced volatility and revenues here, can you just kind of comment why the [sequential drop] [ph], why the year-over-year drop, what are you seeing on the pipeline, guide too such a low number?

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

So, Troy, this is Wahid. Historically if you look at our past years for many, many years going back to fiscal 2011, 2012 and all those years, our business in general has been quite seasonal. And we try to figure out exactly what drives that and we can all have different thoughts on this, but generally we have smaller first halves than second halves and the ratios that you have seen this year in fiscal 2016 is fairly similar to the prior years and in fiscal 2017 it’s slightly more pronounced. As Raymond pointed out that in first half, it’s roughly one-third of the revenue and then two-thirds in the second half and we have a very high portion of our business that is what I refer to book and build because of their urgent need nature of our customers’ requirements and needs, we have to have the ability to turn around quickly and convert contracts into shipments so they can utilize the capabilities that our products and services offer to them. So for that reason, we have a fairly short what I call gestation period between when we receive a contract and when we actually ship products and they are lumpy because they are fairly different sizes in nature.

Troy Jensen

Analyst

Okay. Just the 30/16 [ph] is well below any number we’ve seen in prior years, so just kind of curious why is it so pronounced this year versus other years?

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

We have different theories behind it. I mean, I couldn’t give you a specific reason as to why, but it’s really driven by our markets and our customers.

Troy Jensen

Analyst

Okay. That’s fine.

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

Yeah.

Troy Jensen

Analyst

Go ahead, Ray.

Raymond Cook

Analyst

Yeah, I was just going to say and our ordering patterns what we are projecting for the year.

Troy Jensen

Analyst

Okay. Right, understood.

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

Sorry, another thing to keep in mind Troy is that we now have, you know the government fiscal year is different than our fiscal year. And so we believe that that has an impact on it. We also have a very large growing number of international customers and those customers have different fiscal years depending on the country. So, and of course based on their demands and requirements the timing of their demand and requirements change and it’s not really in our control and so we try our best to address their needs, as soon as they have a need and they execute a contract with us.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question is from Josephine Millward of the Benchmark Company. Your line is open.

Josephine Millward

Analyst

Hi guys.

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

Hi Josephine.

Josephine Millward

Analyst

Hi, Wahid can you tell us what international UAS was in 2016. I think it was around 20 million in fiscal year 2015?

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

Fiscal year 2015?

Josephine Millward

Analyst

No, just last year, 2016. You said they grew significantly, I’m trying to size how big it was?

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

I could tell you that we had a record year. Historically, we have not guided and given details to the product line level, what we have said and you heard in my opening remarks that our international business is a growing business and we have in many new countries that have adopted our solutions than as you heard in my remarks. And we have a fairly decent list of additional countries that have requested information about our products and engaged with us in terms of demand. So, we have a fairly optimistic view on our commercial sales in general, but we have not guided to the product level.

Josephine Millward

Analyst

Okay. In terms of the new small UAS opportunities with the U.S. Army, do you expect decisions on these programs this coming year? Can you give us a sense of timing and the size of the market opportunity? I think you talked about the short range micro UAS and soldier borne sensor?

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

Yes. So, the government’s plans have specific requirements for these product capabilities already included in their plans and we are working with our customers based on their own planning and timing adoption as to when they will initiate that. At this time, we do not have enough information to be able to give you a more precise answer on that. All I could tell you is that based on the engagements we’ve had with the customers there is a real intent by the army to enable our U.S. Army with its capabilities and both of those two requirements are in there.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Michael Ciarmoli of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Michael Ciarmoli

Analyst

Hi, good evening guys. Thanks for taking the question. Just, maybe a look on into the 2017 outlook focusing maybe on backlog, backlog entering the year at one of the lowest levels, can you sort of bridge the gap for us in terms of how we get to the mid-point of guidance, what ships out of backlog, I think you've done that walk a couple of time on prior calls, what you are expecting from new order flow, level of EES, et cetera?

Raymond Cook

Analyst

Yes, Michael, so our 2016 funded backlog was roughly $65.8 million. I believe we have disclosed that on our earnings release. And that is fairly similar or typical to our historical levels. In 2015, entering into 2016 was somewhat of a similar ratio. And in general our funded backlog going into the year typically has been less than roughly third of our business in general that we have been in the past. So, I would argue that this is fairly typical of the last few years that I’ve been here and that I’ve seen our track record in that respect. As I said earlier, our business is lumpy and the timing of these opportunities and contracts are not something that’s in our control and we try our best to give as much visibility as we can, but the most important thing is to take care of our customers and address their needs.

Michael Ciarmoli

Analyst

So, can you provide a bridge in terms of what gets us to that midpoint? I mean, how much ships out of that backlog? What orders are? What the expectation is for EES revenues as you guys have done in the past region that kind of path towards midpoint of guidance?

Raymond Cook

Analyst

I do not have that information handy right now, but we could work on that and get back to you on that separately later on, Michael.

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

Yeah. Michael, with respect to the EES component of that, what we’ve typically done is we’ve typically looked at last year’s or prior’s year’s EES revenue contribution and made an assumption that if that were to be stable and that would be a portion of that visibility walk down. Obviously, as we progress through the year by the time we come down to the Q1 earnings call we’ll have better visibility into the balance of the year and we’ll be able to address it at that time.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The next question is from Howard Rubel of Jefferies. Your line is open.

Howard Rubel

Analyst

Thank you. Talk a little bit more about Blackwing for a moment, I mean, you’ve sort of had it in your pocket, now it’s showing up. What were the things that caused the Navy to find this so appealing and how do you think about it going forward as part of a larger product line?

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

Sure, Howard. Good afternoon it’s Wahid, here.

Howard Rubel

Analyst

Thank you.

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

Yeah. You’re welcome. So, the U.S. Navy has expressed interest in this for a while. We’ve been working with them and trying to understand the requirements more clearly and we have so far delivered some products for what I refer to as a pilot space prototype testing and evaluation. And then, recently we have actually shipped some products for them to be able to use those in the field in an operational, what I call con-ops or concept of operation and template. And so, we feel fairly optimistic about this opportunity and it is also in the DoD’s future year defense program or FYFYDP plan and the U.S. Navy intends to essentially equip our submarines with this capability and our track record so far has been fairly positive and we believe that this represents a fairly large opportunity long-term.

Raymond Cook

Analyst

And just to add to that Howard, in terms of your question about how to think about it from a broader perspective, if you turn back the clock to when we first started talking about Switchblade, that’s really – that’s always been a solution focused on dismounted inventory tested application and as we were out demonstrating that to customers, other customers came out to those demonstration and like what they saw and asked us if we could modify them to address their emerging concepts of operation, unique operating requirements for that and so we began to do that and over time we ended up to at a point where we are now where we’ve grown beyond just Switchblade into truly an emerging family of tactical missile systems or loitering missile systems if you will that encompass both direct fire lethal types of effects, as well as ISR types of effects. So, Switchblade remains a good example of the lethal type of loitering missile system we’ve been talking about. Blackwing is an example of a similar architecture adapted for ISR types of application. Switchblade as we’ve been talking about has been addressing dismounted inventory, Blackwing is now addressing submerge submarines. And so, we’re really expanding the addressable market and expanding the number of customers and the number of con-ops that we can address through this emerging family of systems as Wahid also mentioned, we have a growing number of variance that have continued to evolve and progress towards the point where at least one of them as we’ve said has moved into more of a production type of a situation and others might be moving in that direction shortly. So that entire family of the tactical missile system/loitering missile systems has been growing, continues to grow, continues to expand its footprint and address a larger and growing market opportunity.

Howard Rubel

Analyst

I appreciate it. I mean, we can count ships or we can count subs or we can - it goes well beyond just a few applications. Thank you very much.

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

You’re welcome. That’s accurate Howard. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Michael Ciarmoli of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Michael Ciarmoli

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the follow-up. Maybe just going back to this visibility question, can you guys tell me what portion of remaining government funding you guys have entering into this fiscal year? I’m just trying to understand - can you tell me what portion of government funding you guys have left that you expect to execute on, in this fiscal year? I’m just trying to get a sense, is your visibility better entering into this year or is it you know, lower than it’s been in previous years?

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

Michael, I would say that in terms of better or worse or equal, I would call it equivalent to last year. And so, I would characterize our current visibility and unfunded backlog fairly similar to what we did in fiscal 2015. If you want specific numbers, these are some of the numbers that we’ve actually shared already. In fiscal 2015, starting of that time, our funded backlog was $64.7 million and we had an additional $19 million worth of unfunded backlog, which totaled to about $83 million and change. In fiscal 2016, funded backlog is about $66 million, $65.8 million to be more exact and then an additional $16.7 million worth of unfunded backlog, which totals to about $83 million as well.

Michael Ciarmoli

Analyst

Okay. That’s fair. And then, just on the - you guys have been talking a lot of about growth initiatives. Can you give us a sense, I mean, the guidance for revenues is the same as it was for fiscal 2016, can you give us a sense of what programs or what product lines are seeing revenue headwinds in the overall portfolio that’s offsetting some of the growth in international and tactical missile? Just to try and get a better understanding of what’s going on with mix in the portfolio?

Wahid Nawabi

Analyst

Sure, Michael. So, as we’ve said before and as we continue this journey, our family of system solutions both in the small UAS, as well as in the tactical missile systems or loitering missile systems family is fairly large now. The portfolio is fairly large and our customer base is pretty large, and different variants of these products, whether it’s Raven, Puma, WASP or Switchblade or variants of Switchblade they are on different phases of their adoption curve with different customers. And so, I would characterize for example, our Raven and Puma business to be fairly established in a domestic market. However, we have significant opportunity for growth in international markets. We have opportunity for growth in the defense market for sustainment and upgrades like we launched the i45 gimbal sensor suite, which is unmatched capability in the industry. So, any one of our products you could look at it any time, the family of the system has various – or they are in various stages of their adoption and acquisition. So, primarily in fiscal 2017, we see strong demand in growth in international markets. We see strong demand in customer needs for our tactical missile systems as I described earlier. And obliviously, we intend to enter in the commercial U.S. market with the right solution first and we’re focused on perfecting that solution and the adoption of that really will take time and it also depends on the market itself. It’s a very large market with lots of different verticals and lots of different applications.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And at this time, there are no further questions in the queue. I’ll turn the call back over for closing remarks.

Steven Gitlin

Analyst

Thank you very much and thanks for your attention on today’s call and your ongoing interest AeroVironment. An archived version of this call, all SEC filings and relevant company and industry news can be found on our website avinc.com and we look forward to speaking with you again following next quarter's results. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference, you may now disconnect. Good day.